2017-2018 Fall/Winter Banter, Whining, Complaining Thread

[michsnowfreak]

5 hours ago, Chinook said:

I wonder if any researcher(s) have ever done a scientific study of the trend of seasonal snowfall in the past 50 years. I wonder if areas of the Midwest and Plains are trending down a couple inches/season per few decades.

I have no idea why things are happening in Toronto the way they are are, I mean I know they have that nipher gauge which I don't understand, but still. Obviously Toronto is having bad luck.

 

Snowfall is undeniably on the rise here in Southeast Michigan, it's a trend that is actually as startling as Toronto's trend of the opposite direction. I know Chicago is on the rise as well, but I cannot answer for a more in depth analysis of the entire region.

 

Detroit has had 6 60"+ winters since 2003, and this could be the 7th. From 1880-2002 there were 11 lol.

 

6"+ snowstorms are on a steady rise too.

 

Looking at the top 20 snowiest and snowless winters since 1880...only ONE winter this century makes the snowless list

#18: 24.1" - 2003-04

 

While the snowiest list this centrury...
#1: 94.9" - 2013-14

#5: 71.7" - 2007-08

#6: 69.1" - 2010-11

#10: 65.7" - 2008-09

#11: 63.8" - 2004-05

#15: 60.9" - 2002-03

***As of 7pm tonight, 2017-18 is at 58.0", just a half inch from #20***

Average snowfall the last 11 years is OVER A FOOT above the longterm avg.

 

From the beginning of records, 1880, to 1969, Detroit saw 10 winters with less than 20" of snow. Since 1970, there have been NONE.

[michsnowfreak]

3 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Lately it seems like every time I turn on TWC the on camera mets are pissing their pants with excitement as another nor'easter threatens the northeast.

This actually has seemed a bit quieter than normal on the east coast. I mean, its their climate to get big storms. It would be like being surprised its warm in Miami in Winter.

[cyclone77]

Don't see much potential for accumulating snow through the next 6-10 days.  Maybe a DAB event with a weak clipper Sat, but that's about it.  Looks like it's about a wrap on the 17-18 snow season.  Unless we get a stat padding event at the end of the month, or in April we'll finish 7-8" below average.  Not as bad as the past two seasons though.  We had a few very long stretches of benign weather this winter, and we failed to achieve a warning criteria event, but I enjoyed this winter more than the past two for sure.  Here's to hoping that we've paid our dues and will get in on a blockbuster 18-19 winter season.  

[snowstormcanuck]

7 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

I have no idea why things are happening in Toronto the way they are are, I mean I know they have that nipher gauge which I don't understand, but still. Obviously Toronto is having bad luck.

YYZ no longer uses a nipher gauge for snowfall (only SWE). Snowfall measured with ruler and snowboard.

[snowstormcanuck]

0.4" of snow here since February 11th and zilch on the horizon. Could be one of our worst finishes to winter ever.

[Snowstorms]

2 hours ago, snowstormcanuck said:

0.4" of snow here since February 11th and zilch on the horizon. Could be one of our worst finishes to winter ever.

Just terrible. And no more snow on the horizon. Would have liked it if we got to atleast ~40", guess not lol. Feels like winters are getting either warmer or shorter every season. Just way to many disappointments and close calls this winter. If either one verified we could have been ~45.0". Outside of a few weeks in December and early February, nothing great about this winter or Nina, just crap overall.

Anyways, time for Spring now.

[snowstormcanuck]

4 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

Just terrible. And no more snow on the horizon. Would have liked it if we got to atleast ~40", guess not lol. Feels like winters are getting either warmer or shorter every season. Just way to many disappointments and close calls this winter. If either one verified we could have been ~45.0". Outside of a few weeks in December and early February, nothing great about this winter or Nina, just crap overall.

Anyways, time for Spring now.

LOL, time for spring? It's going to be cloudy and cold for weeks with that blocking. That's the part that really gets me.

[Snowstorms]

1 hour ago, snowstormcanuck said:

LOL, time for spring? It's going to be cloudy and cold for weeks with that blocking. That's the part that really gets me.

Haha, well we haven't seen any sustained blocking in years, so I'm not banking on this to continue and eventually we'll break into a warmer pattern. 

But I think were done with any snow chances. That 12-14th storm could have been a good possibility but that strong block crushes the s/w. I still can't believe how strong the SE ridge was this winter to a point where we couldn't even squeeze out a nice gradient storm. 

[TugHillMatt]

19 hours ago, pondo1000 said:

I feel your pain brah. This indeed is a frustrating additiction/passion. Read my post in this thread from yesterday. My sister is complaining about all snow they got last storm & now upcoming storm. When we moved from east coast about 10 years ago, I never envisioned we would go through such a horrible stretch like we have these past 3 years. I can remember a stretch on the east coast (Philly area) from like ‘97-‘00 being just horrible. BUT, since moving to central Ohio in ‘07, they have done VERY well & certainly kicking our ass in the snow department. 

Thanks. I grew up in Lancaster County, PA. Downsloping from all directions, and a warm Chesapeake Bay to the south to ruin lots of winter fun. I never envisioned the area I live in suffering from the same effects. Lake Coastal Plain and warm Lake Michigan...seem to ruin every synoptic system.

I remember 97 through 2000 easily, as those were my exact high school years. I don't remember many snow days at all...

19 hours ago, weatherbo said:

No need for apologies.  This has been a very frustrating winter for many, including myself.  February, one of the snowiest months here only gave me 12", and my desire to complain doesn't begin to touch those in the southern part of the sub... but it's all relative, I suppose.  I thought I'd be in snow heaven up here, but I never factored in 200+ inches becoming normal... All I want is more now!  Anyway, I wish you luck with your endeavors re: a move to a snowier belt.  I'd love to visit the Tug, but NY is the second to the last state I'd ever want to live in, Cali being the first.

Snow has really picked up in intensity the past couple hours... 8" looks likely by noon tomorrow here locally, as the ice has really started to break up on Superior the past week, and there's actually some air cold enough to work with... even before the snow started, 31" was still on the ground so my complaints will be kept to a min.

Thanks for the well-wishes.  New York is a beautiful state that is much closer to home in Pennsylvania (we don't want to live there again). I have Ohio, West Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey as other options. I think I will choose Upstate New York...lol. The state would be even better if the southeastern chunk of it wasn't part of it anymore.  In my opinion, it has way too much control over how a very large state is going to function. I sure hope I can find a job close to the Tug Hill...some where up higher on the Tug that benefits from colder temps, OROGRAPHIC lifting (so very absent here), and MUCH better synoptic elements.

12 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

I have no idea why things are happening in Toronto the way they are are, I mean I know they have that nipher gauge which I don't understand, but still. Obviously Toronto is having bad luck.

 

Snowfall is undeniably on the rise here in Southeast Michigan, it's a trend that is actually as startling as Toronto's trend of the opposite direction. I know Chicago is on the rise as well, but I cannot answer for a more in depth analysis of the entire region.

 

Detroit has had 6 60"+ winters since 2003, and this could be the 7th. From 1880-2002 there were 11 lol.

 

6"+ snowstorms are on a steady rise too.

 

Looking at the top 20 snowiest and snowless winters since 1880...only ONE winter this century makes the snowless list

#18: 24.1" - 2003-04

 

While the snowiest list this centrury...
#1: 94.9" - 2013-14

#5: 71.7" - 2007-08

#6: 69.1" - 2010-11

#10: 65.7" - 2008-09

#11: 63.8" - 2004-05

#15: 60.9" - 2002-03

***As of 7pm tonight, 2017-18 is at 58.0", just a half inch from #20***

Average snowfall the last 11 years is OVER A FOOT above the longterm avg.

 

From the beginning of records, 1880, to 1969, Detroit saw 10 winters with less than 20" of snow. Since 1970, there have been NONE.

I think we know...while yours goes up, mine goes way down. I think we have been above average 2 of the winters I have lived here. The average is near 100 inches. Most winters have been 50 to 70 inches while I've been here (almost same as yours) but...much of that lake effect fluff that disappears fast.

[pondo1000]

31 minutes ago, blackrock said:

Thanks. I grew up in Lancaster County, PA. Downsloping from all directions, and a warm Chesapeake Bay to the south to ruin lots of winter fun. I never envisioned the area I live in suffering from the same effects. Lake Coastal Plain and warm Lake Michigan...seem to ruin every synoptic system.

I remember 97 through 2000 easily, as those were my exact high school years. I don't remember many snow days at all...

I went to Millersville and we had many a good storm during my time there between '90-'94, capped off with the Super Storm of '93! The winter of '94 was especially fun!

[TugHillMatt]

3 minutes ago, pondo1000 said:

I went to Millersville and we had many a good storm during my time there between '90-'94, capped off with the Super Storm of '93! The winter of '94 was especially fun!

Small world. I grew up in Penn Manor School District (West Willow near Cherry Hill Orchards) and graduated from PM in 2000. So, Millersville, was literally my "stomping grounds". The winter of 93-94 was what got me fascinated with winter storms.

[pondo1000]

Just now, blackrock said:

Small world. I grew up in Penn Manor School District (West Willow near Cherry Hill Orchards) and graduated from PA in 2000. So, Millersville, was literally my "stomping grounds". The winter of 93-94 was what got me fascinated with winter storms.

Small world indeed. Did you go to Penn Manor High School?

Winter of '93-'94 we did some balcony diving from 2nd story apartment onto snow drifts! Not real bright, but a lot of fun! Funny, the stupid stuff we did. 

[TugHillMatt]

Just now, pondo1000 said:

Small world indeed. Did you go to Penn Manor High School?

Winter of '93-'94 we did some balcony diving from 2nd story apartment onto snow drifts! Not real bright, but a lot of fun! Funny, the stupid stuff we did. 

Indeed, I did. Spent many years going to the MU library and worked in their dining hall dish room during high school. What a nasty, smelly job! Beautiful campus. The Susquehanna really screws with the climate of that area. Definitely a micro-climate.

[pondo1000]

5 minutes ago, blackrock said:

Indeed, I did. Spent many years going to the MU library and worked in their dining hall dish room during high school. What a nasty, smelly job! Beautiful campus. The Susquehanna really screws with the climate of that area. Definitely a micro-climate.

Too funny. Well, nice going down memory lane with you. Here's to something of significance the rest of the way for you. Although i doubt it for this year. All we can do is hope for some good winter weather next year I guess. For me, that is simply a Winter Storm Warning! LOL

[TugHillMatt]

Just now, pondo1000 said:

Too funny. Well, nice going down memory lane with you. Here's to something of significance the rest of the way for you. Although i doubt it for this year. All we can do is hope for some good winter weather next year I guess. For me, that is simply a Winter Storm Warning! LOL

Ha! Even more painful for me is that I was away visiting family back in PA during the week that we got about a third of our snowfall for this winter! Urgh.

Nice chatting with you too. I think there are still some chances for smaller events. As far as big storms, the pattern has been set for the past couple years. Deep trough and suppression city, or big ridge and cutter.

[Snowstorms]

GFS with another coastal bomb next week. Give me a break, they've had enough in the last 10 years!! And yet, they still complain every winter and even worse after they get a storm. 

It's funny these cutters or coastal storms usually pan-out as modeled this far out and yet for our region we get drastic changes, usually not in our favor, within 24-36 hours. I don't know what to say. So frustrating. 

[hawkeye_wx]

So a piddly little system dropped a band of 8 inches on part of southeast Michigan overnight.  I haven't received 8 inches from any storm in three years.  Before that, I have to go back another four years.

[hlcater]

How many 6" storms has SEMI had this season? Probably more than we've had in the past 3 combined. I hate being selfish but they need a winter where all it does is cold rain.

[Snowstorms]

6 minutes ago, NWLinnCountyIA said:

How many 6" storms has SEMI had this season? Probably more than we've had in the past 3 combined. I hate being selfish but they need a winter where all it does is cold rain.

SEMI is fine, its the east coast, especially the NE that deserves a couple of lame winters after all they've gotten in recent years.  Like it's just unbelievable. 

What was once considered the snowy Midwest and Great Lakes has now become the snowless Midwest and Great Lakes. 

[dmc76]

6 minutes ago, NWLinnCountyIA said:

How many 6" storms has SEMI had this season? Probably more than we've had in the past 3 combined. I hate being selfish but they need a winter where all it does is cold rain.

It depends where in SEMI. Some spots in Oakland county hit their 6th... 6”+ event of the season this morning. Which is about 20-45 miles NNW of Detroit. 

 

[snowstormcanuck]

1 hour ago, Snowstorms said:

GFS with another coastal bomb next week. Give me a break, they've had enough in the last 10 years!! And yet, they still complain every winter and even worse after they get a storm. 

It's funny these cutters or coastal storms usually pan-out as modeled this far out and yet for our region we get drastic changes, usually not in our favor, within 24-36 hours. I don't know what to say. So frustrating. 

It's perception. There's lots of movement but whether the bullseye is Philly or Boston it's irrelevant to us. So it seems like the solution is modeled perfectly 7 days out.

[Snowstorms]

11 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said:

It's perception. There's lots of movement but whether the bullseye is Philly or Boston it's irrelevant to us. So it seems like the solution is modeled perfectly 7 days out.

Well regardless they keep getting storm after storm (usually in their favor) winter after winter and it's becoming really frustrating. The mean storm track in recent years has favored the East coast quite alot. I wonder if there is any logical explanation (EPO, Solar, ENSO, etc) for that and whether it will shift back west in the coming years? 

 

[Ottawa Blizzard]

23 hours ago, snowstormcanuck said:

I ain't worried. Nothing we can do to change the weather. But I'm not optimistic about things changing anytime soon.

I think you mean January 1999?

Just read through all of these comments now. While I disagree with snowstorms that this winter has been a bust (it was perhaps the best run-up to Christmas we've had in a few years) I do agree that there has been a subtle change in the climate of Toronto over the past few decades. While I do accept that the climate is changing and that humans may be contributing somewhat, I tend to believe that this has more to do with natural cycles. There was rapid climate change in the 17th century, and, according the book Early American Winters" by David Ludlum, there was a string of very warm winters in the upper Midwest in the 1820s. 

 

Regardless, it has become increasingly clear that Toronto's climate is much more temperate today than it was up until about the turn of the millennium. Snowy winters are increasingly rare, while snowfall in the American Mid-Atlantic and northeast states seems to have increased substantially since about 2002-2003. Like Canuck, I don't see it getting better anytime soon for snow lovers. Whether it is the impact humans have had the regional topography, or perhaps the urban heat island effect, snow is becoming increasingly rare in the Greater Toronto Area.

 

On another topic, have you guys seen that Facebook group called "Ontario blizzard watch"? They constantly hype up snowstorms (they are far worse than Joe Bastardi who, let's face it, has been right about his call for stormy conditions in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast) actually calling for Toronto to receive 5-10 cm (2-4") of snow by Friday, and 4-6" in places like Kingston! Total bust!!

[Guest]

Low point. Cold and dry in March as the days grow longer. Cherry on top-repeated Northeast snowstorms. Obnoxious!

Sent from my SM-G925T using Tapatalk

[michsnowfreak]

On 3/6/2018 at 2:31 PM, weatherbo said:

No need for apologies.  This has been a very frustrating winter for many, including myself.  February, one of the snowiest months here only gave me 12", and my desire to complain doesn't begin to touch those in the southern part of the sub... but it's all relative, I suppose.  I thought I'd be in snow heaven up here, but I never factored in 200+ inches becoming normal... All I want is more now!  Anyway, I wish you luck with your endeavors re: a move to a snowier belt.  I'd love to visit the Tug, but NY is the second to the last state I'd ever want to live in, Cali being the first.

Snow has really picked up in intensity the past couple hours... 8" looks likely by noon tomorrow here locally, as the ice has really started to break up on Superior the past week, and there's actually some air cold enough to work with... even before the snow started, 31" was still on the ground so my complaints will be kept to a min.

 I didn't see this when you 1st posted it. And obviously you're buried up there but while only 12" and February? We had 21", that has got to be extremely rare for us to beat the Huron mountains in a Winter month.

[weatherbo]

6 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

 I didn't see this when you 1st posted it. And obviously you're buried up there but while only 12" and February? We had 21", that has got to be extremely rare for us to beat the Huron mountains in a Winter month.

It was brutal for me to endure, but what ya gonna do?

I wonder how many times that flip has happened?  Probably not too many.  The saving grace here is mid-winter highs are low 20's and there really wasn't any huge thaws more than a day or two.  And also, my house faces the north, on a north facing ridge as well so the sun isn't as deadly.... evil sun!

[michsnowfreak]

8 hours ago, Snowstorms said:

SEMI is fine, its the east coast, especially the NE that deserves a couple of lame winters after all they've gotten in recent years.  Like it's just unbelievable. 

What was once considered the snowy Midwest and Great Lakes has now become the snowless Midwest and Great Lakes. 

This WAS a lame Winter in much of NE. That. Is. Their. Climate. I mean they go through weeks and weeks of nothing in between these storms. Usually New England does good, but the East Coast has a lot more lame time then fun time in a typical Winter.

 

 The 2nd sentence is completely wrong. What was once the snowy Great Lakes has now become the snowless Great Lakes?  Snowfall seems to be INCREASING in more areas than not.  I say "seems to be" because I don't have a literal analysis of the entire region, but it's already been documented that lake effect snow is on the rise. And I CAN confirm that snowfall is most definitely on the increase in Detroit, Flint, Ann Arbor, Grand Rapids and, last few years aside, Chicago.  One of the most interesting studies for me would be to have true winter weenies move to the East Coast that they are so jealous of whenever they actually get a storm. I would love to see how they would handle an ENTIRE winter. Meaning including the weeks and weeks of nothing while watching snow systems frequent the Lakes.

[Snowless in Carrollton]

What a lame winter. I think it only snowed like 12" here. A lot of small one inch events. Parts of Georgia had more snow than here.

[Hoosier]

I'm longing for warmth.  

[zinski1990]

Can't believe it. 3 winters in a row of less than 10 inches for total season snow here in indy. Last winter storm warning for indy and metro counties still is March 1 2015. Over 3 years ago. The I 70 curse from st Louis to colombus continues and it really stretches farther than that all the way to ks city and from I 44 to Joplin. At least u guys in northern In, Chicago, south Wisconsin and lower Michigan got the early Feb last month storm. All indy gets now is 1-2 inches. Biggest snow since 2015 here is a pathetic 3.9 inches Dec of 2016 and after that nothing rest of winter. Can't believe how northeast always gets monster storms every year as well. Frustrating. Wish we could go back to winter patterns in years such as early mid 60s, late 70s, 81-82, 84-85, 93-94, 95-96, 98-99, 02-03, 04-05, 07-08, 08-09, 10-11 and especially 13-14 14-15