2017-2018 Fall/Winter Banter, Whining, Complaining Thread

[Baum]

12 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

We year-round weather enthusiasts will keep the lights on whilst you're out of office. 

OH, I'll still be lurking; love tracking the severe and heat just not an active poster. Truly enjoy, the banter, personalities, heartbreak, and tracking during the winter. Quick shout out to Hawkeye who I referred to as "bummer man" the other day. My apologies it was just your posting of the Euro the other day was the proverbial nail in the coffin. I really wanted that storm. We've all been there-right Beavis? anyway, still think Winter has another trick or so up its sleeve this year. Like another DTX blizzard

[hawkeye_wx]

3 hours ago, Baum said:

OH, I'll still be lurking; love tracking the severe and heat just not an active poster. Truly enjoy, the banter, personalities, heartbreak, and tracking during the winter. Quick shout out to Hawkeye who I referred to as "bummer man" the other day. My apologies it was just your posting of the Euro the other day was the proverbial nail in the coffin. I really wanted that storm. We've all been there-right Beavis? anyway, still think Winter has another trick or so up its sleeve this year. Like another DTX blizzard

I've been thinking I might have misinterpreted your post.  Yeah, it would have been nice to see a 6-10" plastering, as those kind of storms are rare around here.  Heck, all 6+" storms are rare.  I'm not unhappy that I didn't have to shovel all that heavy slop, though.

I'm definitely looking forward to thunderstorm season.  As I've grown older, thunderstorms and heavy rain have become my favorite type of weather.

[Snowstorms]

9 hours ago, snowstormcanuck said:

Nope. Grey skies and temps a bit north of freezing is all you shall get with this kind of blocking.

Seriously, move to Barrie. People live there and commute into the City. You'll get a very decent snowy climate, still close to civilization, and housing prices which are more affordable. Even Bradford or Newmarket. Get north of the Oak Ridges and you can bank 40" in your worst winter. 1/2 hr drive away.

Our spring's are never that great anyways LOL. I'm wondering if this summer will end up on the cooler side of things as well. Based on a brief scan I did of recent years, 2nd year Nina's tend to average cooler than normal, i.e. 2009, 2000, 1997, 1989, 1985, etc. 

And haha . I'm not that serious about snow that I would need to move.  Just a little frustrated we always get the short end of the stick when it comes to storms. LES is great and all but nothing beats a good ole classic storm. 

[SchaumburgStormer]

8 hours ago, Baum said:

OH, I'll still be lurking; love tracking the severe and heat just not an active poster. Truly enjoy, the banter, personalities, heartbreak, and tracking during the winter. Quick shout out to Hawkeye who I referred to as "bummer man" the other day. My apologies it was just your posting of the Euro the other day was the proverbial nail in the coffin. I really wanted that storm. We've all been there-right Beavis? anyway, still think Winter has another trick or so up its sleeve this year. Like another DTX blizzard

 

5 hours ago, hawkeye_wx said:

I've been thinking I might have misinterpreted your post.  Yeah, it would have been nice to see a 6-10" plastering, as those kind of storms are rare around here.  Heck, all 6+" storms are rare.  I'm not unhappy that I didn't have to shovel all that heavy slop, though.

I'm definitely looking forward to thunderstorm season.  As I've grown older, thunderstorms and heavy rain have become my favorite type of weather.

We have hit the "Acceptance" stage of winter season grief. 

[IWXwx]

17 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

 

We have hit the "Acceptance" stage of winter season grief. 

I'm still holding out hope for a season-saving storm until astronomical spring. After that...

[Hoosier]

That storm next week looks like a miserable pos lol.  Maybe even some lake effect snow around here.

[cyclone77]

1 minute ago, Hoosier said:

That storm next week looks like a miserable pos lol.  Maybe even some lake effect snow around here.

I vote that be the title of the storm thread when it's made lol.

[Stebo]

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

That storm next week looks like a miserable pos lol.  Maybe even some lake effect snow around here.

Yeah it is a bag of ugly rolling through. Just as long as it keeps on rolling right out stage right, I am fine with showery cool weather.

[michsnowfreak]

13 hours ago, Stebo said:

Yeah it is a bag of ugly rolling through. Just as long as it keeps on rolling right out stage right, I am fine with showery cool weather.

It could roll Detroit into a top 20 snow season though.

[Stebo]

3 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

It could roll Detroit into a top 20 snow season though.

Yep and then I'm done with winter at that point. I see no big storm on the horizon for the area and by that point we are into mid March. We can just ease right into spring.

[Chinook]

2 hours ago, Stebo said:

Yep and then I'm done with winter at that point. I see no big storm on the horizon for the area and by that point we are into mid March. We can just ease right into spring.

Ease in to spring with large Greenland Block, later, Labrador block. Wow, that never happens. Cooler temps will prevail while the blocking lasts.

[Stebo]

2 hours ago, Chinook said:

Ease in to spring with large Greenland Block, later, Labrador block. Wow, that never happens. Cooler temps will prevail while the blocking lasts.

The blocking won't last forever, rather burn a crap pattern now vs May. All the teleconnection projections flip the NAO and AO by mid March same with the EPO, even if that is quick I would expect a flip by the 20th. 

[Hoosier]

Here it is folks

 

[Chambana]

I had to tweet at a local met about CMI’s official snowfall season  total as I was getting conflicting totals from a few various websites. CMI officially on the season has a horrid 9.3”. Barring anything out of the ordinary (March 2013) that likely stands and is final. Sound like a broken record, but man these past few winters have been boring, unless your michsnowfreak! Dudes had the hot hand for awhile. 

 

I should note that the 9.3” is on par with 2011-2012, but will not take the record of the least snowiest winter here locally. During the winter of 1953-1954 CMI recorded a depressing a 6.7”. 

[buckeye]

ah yes,

nothing like upper level lows spinning over you in March giving you clouds temps in the mid 30's to low 40's and intermittent showers of slop.   Then of course we also get the concillation prize of watching energy rotate around us and pop noreasters.

Then of course we can watch the grand finale of a storm in the southern plains being forced south of us as it explodes off the coast...      Hopefully the pattern collapses and the trough moves out.   We can enjoy spring warmth while the NE gets miserable back door fronts crapping on their spring.   At least we got that going for us 

[pondo1000]

I think it has been 3 years (?) here since the last Winter Storm Warning. That just seems crazy to me.

Meanwhile, where I grew up in the northern suburbs of Philly, and where my extended family still lives, there have been COUNTLESS Winter Storm Warnings. Kills me! 

[Snowstorms]

I did a little digging back through Toronto's past winters and the stats are mind-blowing, lol. I looked at both YYZ and the downtown Toronto station in case of any differences. 

From 1958-59 to 1978-79, YYZ only recorded ONE season below 40.0". In that same time frame, YYZ recorded 5 seasons ~65"+. However, from 1997-98 to 2017-2018, YYZ recorded NINE seasons below 40.0", not including this year. And only one season >65" and that was 07-08 where ~78.0" fell. So the idea that Toronto's geographic location explains the lack of snow can be argued against when looking back through Toronto's history. And now 17-18 maybe on the verge of being the 10th season since 97-98 below 40.0". Definite decline in snowfall in recent decades and there's no denying that and it certainly cannot be downplayed by geographic location. Now I cannot conclude if it's just a local thing or region wide decline in snowfall. 

And now the NE enjoy's another historic storm with a potential second behind it, lol.  Well no point in complaining, nature has it's way and unfortunately, it doesn't like "Toronto" and "snow" in the same sentence like it used to. 

[Chinook]

This is another reminder of why you might want to hate New England. The southern Great Lakes has mediocre snows of 1-3" quite often. Sometimes we get our hopes up for bigger snows, based on the models. Once in a while, the national news media announces -- 12" of SNOW IN BOSTON AND NEW YORK. STORM COMES OUT OF NOWHERE. And then you wonder why such things never happen in northern Ohio.

[TugHillMatt]

1 hour ago, Chinook said:

This is another reminder of why you might want to hate New England. The southern Great Lakes has mediocre snows of 1-3" quite often. Sometimes we get our hopes up for bigger snows, based on the models. Once in a while, the national news media announces -- 12" of SNOW IN BOSTON AND NEW YORK. STORM COMES OUT OF NOWHERE. And then you wonder why such things never happen in northern Ohio.

Yep...in this area of the Great Lakes, it's either rain as it moves northwest of us...or you hope the storm weakens into a turd but not too much so you can get a couple inches of snow. Otherwise, it's HOPE for lake effect snow. There's a reason there's an area of Lower Michigan northeast of here that averages only about 30 or so inches of snow a year. I think when they update average snowfalls for 2000 to 2020, my average snowfall will be MUCH lower than the 90 to 100 inch average it has been.

[TugHillMatt]

P.S. I really do apologize for my complaining guys. "Normal" people in my "outside life" don't get my passion and excitement for the weather and SNOW. This is my "go to" place for exclaiming excitement over the weather and venting about the pathetic winters as of late. I am indeed sort of pissed because I was very excited about moving here 9 years ago because of a more wintry climate. Well...we all know how winters have been in the midwest lately. Plus, this area has been getting the shaft A LOT in terms of synoptic snow. I know some of you...especially Iowa and Ohio get that. Brings back memories of my childhood watching snowstorms go northwest of me and east of me when I lived in South-central PA. Thought I was getting away from that....but this past decade has SUCKED in this area, and storms have been missing left and right.

I have been trying to laugh it off...but when the trend never seems to end...well...grrrr. Getting tired of there's "always next winter". My wife gets my passion or snow (as best she can)  and is willing to live somewhere with more consistent snowfall, but still gets all 4 seasons. Thus, my search in upstate New York/Tug Hill area. Plus, we will be closer to family..3 to 6 hours compared to 10 to 12 hours.

I know many of you aren't as hard-core winter people as many other people on other sub-forums....so may not get the winter-obsession either. A little bit of transparency from me. I hope everybody has a wonderful afternoon.

[pondo1000]

5 minutes ago, blackrock said:

P.S. I really do apologize for my complaining guys. "Normal" people in my "outside life" don't get my passion and excitement for the weather and SNOW. This is my "go to" place for exclaiming excitement over the weather and venting about the pathetic winters as of late. I am indeed sort of pissed because I was very excited about moving here 9 years ago because of a more wintry climate. Well...we all know how winters have been in the midwest lately. Plus, this area has been getting the shaft A LOT in terms of synoptic snow. I know some of you...especially Iowa and Ohio get that. Brings back memories of my childhood watching snowstorms go northwest of me and east of me when I lived in South-central PA. Thought I was getting away from that....but this past decade has SUCKED in this area, and storms have been missing left and right.

I have been trying to laugh it off...but when the trend never seems to end...well...grrrr. Getting tired of there's "always next winter". My wife gets my passion or snow (as best she can)  and is willing to live somewhere with more consistent snowfall, but still gets all 4 seasons. Thus, my search in upstate New York/Tug Hill area. Plus, we will be closer to family..3 to 6 hours compared to 10 to 12 hours.

I know many of you aren't as hard-core winter people as many other people on other sub-forums....so may not get the winter-obsession either. A little bit of transparency from me. I hope everybody has a wonderful afternoon.

I feel your pain brah. This indeed is a frustrating additiction/passion. Read my post in this thread from yesterday. My sister is complaining about all snow they got last storm & now upcoming storm. When we moved from east coast about 10 years ago, I never envisioned we would go through such a horrible stretch like we have these past 3 years. I can remember a stretch on the east coast (Philly area) from like ‘97-‘00 being just horrible. BUT, since moving to central Ohio in ‘07, they have done VERY well & certainly kicking our ass in the snow department. 

[weatherbo]

30 minutes ago, blackrock said:

P.S. I really do apologize for my complaining guys. "Normal" people in my "outside life" don't get my passion and excitement for the weather and SNOW. This is my "go to" place for exclaiming excitement over the weather and venting about the pathetic winters as of late. I am indeed sort of pissed because I was very excited about moving here 9 years ago because of a more wintry climate. Well...we all know how winters have been in the midwest lately. Plus, this area has been getting the shaft A LOT in terms of synoptic snow. I know some of you...especially Iowa and Ohio get that. Brings back memories of my childhood watching snowstorms go northwest of me and east of me when I lived in South-central PA. Thought I was getting away from that....but this past decade has SUCKED in this area, and storms have been missing left and right.

I have been trying to laugh it off...but when the trend never seems to end...well...grrrr. Getting tired of there's "always next winter". My wife gets my passion or snow (as best she can)  and is willing to live somewhere with more consistent snowfall, but still gets all 4 seasons. Thus, my search in upstate New York/Tug Hill area. Plus, we will be closer to family..3 to 6 hours compared to 10 to 12 hours.

I know many of you aren't as hard-core winter people as many other people on other sub-forums....so may not get the winter-obsession either. A little bit of transparency from me. I hope everybody has a wonderful afternoon.

No need for apologies.  This has been a very frustrating winter for many, including myself.  February, one of the snowiest months here only gave me 12", and my desire to complain doesn't begin to touch those in the southern part of the sub... but it's all relative, I suppose.  I thought I'd be in snow heaven up here, but I never factored in 200+ inches becoming normal... All I want is more now!  Anyway, I wish you luck with your endeavors re: a move to a snowier belt.  I'd love to visit the Tug, but NY is the second to the last state I'd ever want to live in, Cali being the first.

Snow has really picked up in intensity the past couple hours... 8" looks likely by noon tomorrow here locally, as the ice has really started to break up on Superior the past week, and there's actually some air cold enough to work with... even before the snow started, 31" was still on the ground so my complaints will be kept to a min.

[josh_4184]

18 minutes ago, weatherbo said:

No need for apologies.  This has been a very frustrating winter for many, including myself.  February, one of the snowiest months here only gave me 12", and my desire to complain doesn't begin to touch those in the southern part of the sub... but it's all relative, I suppose.  I thought I'd be in snow heaven up here, but I never factored in 200+ inches becoming normal... All I want is more now!  Anyway, I wish you luck with your endeavors re: a move to a snowier belt.  I'd love to visit the Tug, but NY is the second to the last state I'd ever want to live in, Cali being the first.

Snow has really picked up in intensity the past couple hours... 8" looks likely by noon tomorrow here locally, as the ice has really started to break up on Superior the past week, and there's actually some air cold enough to work with... even before the snow started, 31" was still on the ground so my complaints will be kept to a min.

Ha, haven't been very active this year either due to the horrible season we have had up here. Might not hit 100" for the year in my area which is unfavorable to even think in general for my area.  Synoptic systems just havent been in play for the north woods, used to bother me but don't care anymore as you cant do anything to change it besides move to more favorable climates if that is your thing.  Oddly enough today is probably the most synoptic precipitation we have had all winter, but coming in March doesn't have near the teeth it could have 30 days ago. 

[hawkeye_wx]

 

[Chinook]

I wonder if any researcher(s) have ever done a scientific study of the trend of seasonal snowfall in the past 50 years. I wonder if areas of the Midwest and Plains are trending down a couple inches/season per few decades.

[cyclone77]

5 hours ago, Chinook said:

This is another reminder of why you might want to hate New England. The southern Great Lakes has mediocre snows of 1-3" quite often. Sometimes we get our hopes up for bigger snows, based on the models. Once in a while, the national news media announces -- 12" of SNOW IN BOSTON AND NEW YORK. STORM COMES OUT OF NOWHERE. And then you wonder why such things never happen in northern Ohio.

Lately it seems like every time I turn on TWC the on camera mets are pissing their pants with excitement as another nor'easter threatens the northeast.

[snowstormcanuck]

19 hours ago, Snowstorms said:

I did a little digging back through Toronto's past winters and the stats are mind-blowing, lol. I looked at both YYZ and the downtown Toronto station in case of any differences. 

From 1958-59 to 1978-79, YYZ only recorded ONE season below 40.0". In that same time frame, YYZ recorded 5 seasons ~65"+. However, from 1997-98 to 2017-2018, YYZ recorded NINE seasons below 40.0", not including this year. And only one season >65" and that was 07-08 where ~78.0" fell. So the idea that Toronto's geographic location explains the lack of snow can be argued against when looking back through Toronto's history. And now 17-18 maybe on the verge of being the 10th season since 97-98 below 40.0". Definite decline in snowfall in recent decades and there's no denying that and it certainly cannot be downplayed by geographic location. Now I cannot conclude if it's just a local thing or region wide decline in snowfall. 

And now the NE enjoy's another historic storm with a potential second behind it, lol.  Well no point in complaining, nature has it's way and unfortunately, it doesn't like "Toronto" and "snow" in the same sentence like it used to. 

I was looking at the numbers and it's really the last 10 years that have been atrocious. Between 1970 and 2006, YYZ reported no winter with less than 25" of snow. A span of 36 winters. Since 2006-07, a span of 12 winters, there have been 3 sub 25" winters (and 2015-16 at 25.9" just barely missed making it 4). The mean annual snowfall since 2006-07 is 40.0" on the nose, compared to 45.3" for the preceding 36 winters. A decrease of over 12%.

You're right, it's not just things like topography and location relative to the lakes, although that's always been a reason why we punch below our weight for our latitude. It could be due to Toronto's continued urbanization. It could be AGW. It could be bad luck (although this explanation is starts to become problematic the larger the sample size of sucky winters gets). Not sure. I think someone said something about the long-term phase of the EPO being correlated to our snowiness. Not sure.

[snowcaine]

49 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said:

I was looking at the numbers and it's really the last 10 years that have been atrocious. Between 1970 and 2006, YYZ reported no winter with less than 25" of snow. A span of 36 winters. Since 2006-07, a span of 12 winters, there have been 3 sub 25" winters (and 2015-16 at 25.9" just barely missed making it 4). The mean annual snowfall since 2006-07 is 40.0" on the nose, compared to 45.3" for the preceding 36 winters. A decrease of over 12%.

You're right, it's not just things like topography and location relative to the lakes, although that's always been a reason why we punch below our weight for our latitude. It could be due to Toronto's continued urbanization. It could be AGW. It could be bad luck (although this explanation is starts to become problematic the larger the sample size of sucky winters gets). Not sure. I think someone said something about the long-term phase of the EPO being correlated to our snowiness. Not sure.

I moved here in may 2010 so maybe I'm the curse lol

[Snowstorms]

1 hour ago, snowstormcanuck said:

I was looking at the numbers and it's really the last 10 years that have been atrocious. Between 1970 and 2006, YYZ reported no winter with less than 25" of snow. A span of 36 winters. Since 2006-07, a span of 12 winters, there have been 3 sub 25" winters (and 2015-16 at 25.9" just barely missed making it 4). The mean annual snowfall since 2006-07 is 40.0" on the nose, compared to 45.3" for the preceding 36 winters. A decrease of over 12%.

You're right, it's not just things like topography and location relative to the lakes, although that's always been a reason why we punch below our weight for our latitude. It could be due to Toronto's continued urbanization. It could be AGW. It could be bad luck (although this explanation is starts to become problematic the larger the sample size of sucky winters gets). Not sure. I think someone said something about the long-term phase of the EPO being correlated to our snowiness. Not sure.

Wow, that's interesting. You had mentioned earlier from 1987-88 to 1991-92 every winter was <40". I agree, the last couple of winters have been beyond terrible. Though its interesting you point out "bad luck" as being one culprit. 2006-07 was just a terrible winter all around so no "luck" playing there. 2009-10 was bad, but there wasn't any shortage of storms. The strong record-breaking block suppressed every goddamn storm that winter. So it could have been better (bad luck), but we just got the short end of the stick that year. Then there's 2011-12. I don't think I have to go any further than that. Now 2015-16 was just bad. The strong El Nino kept things warm and dry for the most part all winter. 2016-17 started off great then just went straight downhill after December. A combination of "bad luck" and poor timing played a role in 1-2 storms last winter where we could have finished near average if anyone of them ended up verifying. This winter has just been full of bad-luck. A couple of near misses has us on the brink of 40.0" and sadly our window of opportunity continues to close with each passing day as spring looms. 

The EPO could play a key role in our winter. Having an extremely -EPO can be just as bad as a +EPO because it suppresses and shreds any s/w that tries to form. Many of our winters from 1978 to 2006 featured a +PDO which does have some affect on temperatures and precip in our area. We had a briefly -PDO from 1998 to 2001 and again from 2007 to 2014. To break down those time-frames we saw; 

January 1998: Over 40"

2000-01: Quite snowy and cold

2007-08: Snowiest winter on record (depending on what station you view)

2008-09: Cold + snowy

2010-11: Cold + stormy

2012-13: Top 5 snowy February

2013-14: Cold + snowy - a true Canadian winter  

Now obviously winters like 1999-00, 09-10 (+PDO for DJF) and 11-12 stick out in those time frames. 

From 2001-2007 the PDO was positive and since 2014 it has been positive. In both time frames, YYZ recorded 3 sub 40" winter (including this year). Perhaps the PDO plays some connection to our snowfall? I certainly believe there maybe some climate change affects added to it as well, but the time scale is to small to conclude that. We'll see how the next decade fares. Although, having 4/5 least snowiest winters on record all occur within the last 10-15 years is terrifying. On the other hand, you got places like NYC, Boston, Detroit, etc., having record-breaking winters every now and then so maybe it's just us, lol? I don't know. But geographic location isn't something to worry about, it's about getting the ideal storm track like we saw in the 60's and 70's. We can only hope next winter is better because we been left on the thought of "there's always next winter" for a while now. 

[snowstormcanuck]

4 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

Wow, that's interesting. You had mentioned earlier from 1987-88 to 1991-92 every winter was <40". I agree, the last couple of winters have been beyond terrible. Though its interesting you point out "bad luck" as being one culprit. 2006-07 was just a terrible winter all around so no "luck" playing there. 2009-10 was bad, but there wasn't any shortage of storms. The strong record-breaking block suppressed every goddamn storm that winter. So it could have been better but we got the short end of the stick that year. Then there's 2011-12. I don't think I have to go any further than that. Now 2015-16 was just bad. The strong El Nino kept things warm and dry for the most part all winter. 2016-17 started off great then just went straight downhill after December. A combination of "bad luck" and poor timing played a role in 1-2 storms last winter where we could have finished near average if anyone of them ended up verifying. This winter has just been full of bad-luck. A couple of near misses has us on the brink of 40.0" and sadly our window of opportunity continues to close with each passing day as spring looms. 

The EPO could play a key role in our winter. Having an extremely -EPO can be just as bad as a +EPO because it suppresses and shreds any s/w that tries to form. Many of our winters from 1978 to 2006 featured a +PDO which does have some affect on temperatures and precip in our area. We had a briefly negative -PDO from 1998 to 2001 and again from 2007 to 2014. To break down those time-frames we saw; 

January 1998: Over 40"

2000-01: Quite snowy and cold

2007-08: Snowiest winter on record (depending on what station you view)

2008-09: Cold + snowy

2010-11: Cold + stormy

2012-13: Top 5 snowy February

2013-14: Cold + snowy - a true Canadian winter  

Now obviously winters like 1999-00, 09-10 (+PDO for DJF) and 11-12 stick out in those time frames. 

From 2001-2007 the PDO was positive and since 2014 it has been positive. In both time frames, YYZ recorded 3 sub 40" winter (including this year). Perhaps the PDO plays some connection to our snowfall? I certainly believe there maybe some climate change affects added to it as well, but the time scale is to small to conclude that. We'll see how the next decade fares. Although, having 4/5 least snowiest winters on record all occur within the last 10-15 years is terrifying. On the other hand, you got places like NYC, Boston, Detroit, etc., having record-breaking winters every now and then so maybe it's just us, lol? I don't know. But geographic location isn't something to worry about, it's about getting the ideal storm track like we saw in the 60's and 70's. 

I ain't worried. Nothing we can do to change the weather. But I'm not optimistic about things changing anytime soon.

I think you mean January 1999?