2017-2018 Fall/Winter Banter, Whining, Complaining Thread

[beavis1729]

It’s 77 in Saint Louis, on February 15. What is going on?

To those who think winter exists south of 45N in the Midwest...lolololololol. Not sure what else to say. 

[hlcater]

4 hours ago, beavis1729 said:

It’s 77 in Saint Louis, on February 15. What is going on?

To those who think winter exists south of 45N in the Midwest...lolololololol. Not sure what else to say. 

Lol.

[OrdIowPitMsp]

7 hours ago, beavis1729 said:

It’s 77 in Saint Louis, on February 15. What is going on?

To those who think winter exists south of 45N in the Midwest...lolololololol. Not sure what else to say. 

This is partially why I moved to 45N.

[michsnowfreak]

8 hours ago, beavis1729 said:

It’s 77 in Saint Louis, on February 15. What is going on?

To those who think winter exists south of 45N in the Midwest...lolololololol. Not sure what else to say. 

St Louis always torches. Its been a very good winter here and I am at 42.2N. Ive probably shoveled 20 times, road commissions are running out of salt, temps are below normal, snow is above normal, etc. You really go off the deep end with your extreme exaggerations of no winter lmao.

[michsnowfreak]

On 2/14/2018 at 4:55 PM, cyclone77 said:

lol, this is like if you're sitting in a movie theater saying this movie sucks when you're still just watching the previews.

I would love to see cmillzzz and beavis in a debate-style format discuss actual weather stats/events of the past 10 years or so.

 

[hawkeye_wx]

I've had my big snow board sitting on the deck up by the house when not being used.  This evening, I found what appeared to be a big puddle of animal piss on it(cat?), along with some muddy paw prints.  Perhaps this is a sign that the last week was winter's last hurrah?

[snowstormcanuck]

Starting to dawn on me that winter might be over; it's not so bad though. Only mid 40s yesterday but it felt great. Actually went outside with no jacket. More of the same + some degrees...I won't object.

[michsnowfreak]

3 hours ago, snowstormcanuck said:

Starting to dawn on me that winter might be over; it's not so bad though. Only mid 40s yesterday but it felt great. Actually went outside with no jacket. More of the same + some degrees...I won't object.

Im headed for a weekend of winter fun up north. I'm keeping that in the back of my mind. The rest of my snowpack will melt Tuesday and deep winters back is broken. Even though my back has ached at times from shoveling this winter, I never have enough. I am almost positive we see more accumulating snow...but deep winter is over. It's funny that temps are in the negative column and snow in the positive column but I still want more more MORE.

[BuffaloWeather]

14 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Im headed for a weekend of winter fun up north. I'm keeping that in the back of my mind. The rest of my snowpack will melt Tuesday and deep winters back is broken. Even though my back has ached at times from shoveling this winter, I never have enough. I am almost positive we see more accumulating snow...but deep winter is over. It's funny that temps are in the negative column and snow in the positive column but I still want more more MORE.

You need to move to a snow belt. Imagine an average winter where you received 3-5 times what you receive there. 

[hlcater]

44 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

You need to move to a snow belt. Imagine an average winter where you received 3-5 times what you receive there. 

I hear Hokkaido is fun this time of year, but that might be too much snow!

[Stebo]

5 hours ago, snowstormcanuck said:

Starting to dawn on me that winter might be over; it's not so bad though. Only mid 40s yesterday but it felt great. Actually went outside with no jacket. More of the same + some degrees...I won't object.

Outside of a random system or two, I'm leaning this way too. I can't complain though, it has been 2 1/2 below normal months with almost 55" of snow for the season. If it ended today it would still been a great winter.

[Chambana]

It’s amazing the stark contrast of snowfall up north compared to here, yes climo obviously plays a huge role, even then winter down here has been awful. Just a hair over 11” on the season in CMI with points S/SW/SE still sitting in the single digits on the year. 

 

I have 65 in my forecast Monday. May make a run at the record (68) set just last year. 

[snowstormcanuck]

12 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Outside of a random system or two, I'm leaning this way too. I can't complain though, it has been 2 1/2 below normal months with almost 55" of snow for the season. If it ended today it would still been a great winter.

I don't follow the teleconnections like I used to. However, I noticed after several runs of the GFS showing some nice north Atlantic blocking, the last few have shied away from that; more of a zonal flow. And by this time we're in March anyways.

Agree with Josh. I fully expect another accumulating snow of some sort. But I don't see a March 2008 in the cards.

[Stebo]

1 minute ago, snowstormcanuck said:

I don't follow the teleconnections like I used to. However, I noticed after several runs of the GFS showing some nice north Atlantic blocking, the last few have shied away from that; more of a zonal flow. And by this time we're in March anyways.

Agree with Josh. I fully expect another accumulating snow of some sort. But I don't see a March 2008 in the cards.

Yeah I expect a system or two still, maybe even another 10" of snow between now and end of season but it won't last long on the ground. I know it sounds kind of crazy/funny but yesterday just had a fresh smell to it.

[Snowstorms]

4 hours ago, snowstormcanuck said:

I don't follow the teleconnections like I used to. However, I noticed after several runs of the GFS showing some nice north Atlantic blocking, the last few have shied away from that; more of a zonal flow. And by this time we're in March anyways.

Agree with Josh. I fully expect another accumulating snow of some sort. But I don't see a March 2008 in the cards.

I thought for sure we'd see a return to more winter like conditions after the 20th, but it seems highly unlikely as the models continue with the strong SE ridge look. The feature we wanted all winter, so we could have more storminess, well its finally here and though it does look active, it also looks unseasonably warm too . The only thing that can keep us somewhat hopeful of atleast a decent snowstorm (>4") is the widespread cold anomalies across northern and western Canada. It may help to suppress the SE ridge just enough for a favorable track, but that remains to be seen. Alot of major warm-ups this winter, can't disregard that. I'll be content if we can finish this winter ~42" (right around average). 

I would like it if that massive Pacific Ridge was a bit further east to centre the cold anomalies towards the Prairies rather than the PNW. I think we'll see something between February 24th-28th as the NAO goes negative and the PNA itches closer to neutral. Alot of s/w's digging in towards California and the surrounding area would seem to indicate, under the right circumstances, we could see something around that time-frame. 

[snowstormcanuck]

17 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

I thought for sure we'd see a return to more winter like conditions after the 20th, but it seems highly unlikely as the models continue with the strong SE ridge look. The feature we wanted all winter, so we could have more storminess, well its finally here and though it does look active, it also looks unseasonably warm too . The only thing that can keep us somewhat hopeful of atleast a decent snowstorm (>4") is the widespread cold anomalies across northern and western Canada. It may help to suppress the SE ridge just enough for a favorable track, but that remains to be seen. Alot of major warm-ups this winter, can't disregard that. I'll be content if we can finish this winter ~42" (right around average). 

I would like it if that massive Pacific Ridge was a bit further east to centre the cold anomalies towards the Prairies rather than the PNW. I think we'll see something between February 24th-28th as the NAO goes negative and the PNA itches closer to neutral. Alot of s/w's digging in towards California and the surrounding area would seem to indicate, under the right circumstances, we could see something around that time-frame. 

Have there been a lot of major warm-ups? The one we're embarking upon is pretty substantial. But the only other one I can think of was back in mid-January, and that one ended up being more muted than initially advertised. Just comparing to climo, I think, at least up until this point, we've done alright with avoiding the torches. Relatively speaking. It's never going to be a wall-to-wall cold winter this far south.

I think we'll finish north of 40" too.

[beavis1729]

I like this for a seasonal metric...the Winter Severity Index (WSI for short). 

To calculate WSI, you note one point for each day with 15" or more of snow on the ground, and one point for each day with a sub-zero low.

Tower MN averages a 120 WSI each season, with the highest being around 185 in 1995-96.  Chicago probably averages around 7 or 8. 

http://www.duluthnewstribune.com/sports/outdoors/2419368-deep-snow-sends-winter-severity-index-higher-across-northern-minnesota

 

[Snowless in Carrollton]

Why is it so difficult to get sunny days in the midwest ? It seems nearly impossible to get a cloud free day in the winter. I think even the east coast gets more sunshine. Is the midwest the cloudiest region in the country outside of the pacific northwest?

[michsnowfreak]

On 2/16/2018 at 5:15 PM, beavis1729 said:

I like this for a seasonal metric...the Winter Severity Index (WSI for short). 

To calculate WSI, you note one point for each day with 15" or more of snow on the ground, and one point for each day with a sub-zero low.

Tower MN averages a 120 WSI each season, with the highest being around 185 in 1995-96.  Chicago probably averages around 7 or 8. 

http://www.duluthnewstribune.com/sports/outdoors/2419368-deep-snow-sends-winter-severity-index-higher-across-northern-minnesota

 

On the WSI for this winter, Detroit is one of a few places in purple, which means "extreme". The only higher mark is record. Chicago is blue which means "severe" and Duluth is yellow which means "average". It takes into account temps, snow, snow depth etc.

 

http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu/research/awssi/indexAwssi.jsp

[hlcater]

While looking for another system, I happened to stumble upon this storm, which I had largely forgot about until now. I don't really remember this one in particular for whatever reason, but I guess I kinda do now. It would be nice to get a storm like this again. We haven't had a true blizzard in a really, really long time. Widespread totals of 12-15" and a strengthening low from St. Louis to Chicago. Funnily enough, storms like these seem like a relic of the past nowadays, when they used to seem at least somewhat common.

 

https://www.weather....120809_Blizzard

[Hoosier]

3 hours ago, Snowless in Carrollton said:

Why is it so difficult to get sunny days in the midwest ? It seems nearly impossible to get a cloud free day in the winter. I think even the east coast gets more sunshine. Is the midwest the cloudiest region in the country outside of the pacific northwest?

Funny, my perception has been that there's been plenty of sunny days this winter (although you do mention cloud free which is kind of a high standard).  I know Michigan has a lot of cloudy days in winter due to Lake Michigan.  I would imagine there is some of that influence even where you are, as compared to areas west of the lake.

[Hoosier]

14 minutes ago, NWLinnCountyIA said:

While looking for another system, I happened to stumble upon this storm, which I had largely forgot about until now. I don't really remember this one in particular for whatever reason, but I guess I kinda do now. It would be nice to get a storm like this again. We haven't had a true blizzard in a really, really long time. Widespread totals of 12-15" and a strengthening low from St. Louis to Chicago. Funnily enough, storms like these seem like a relic of the past nowadays, when they used to seem at least somewhat common.

 

https://www.weather....120809_Blizzard

I think I remember it.  The low was pretty deep iirc.

[Snowless in Carrollton]

12 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Funny, my perception has been that there's been plenty of sunny days this winter (although you do mention cloud free which is kind of a high standard).  I know Michigan has a lot of cloudy days in winter due to Lake Michigan.  I would imagine there is some of that influence even where you are, as compared to areas west of the lake.

Yeah i was talking about completely cloud free with bright blue skies. Seems like even on days when there is sun there are also plenty of clouds. After today it looks like the sun wont be seen again for another week.

[TugHillMatt]

4 hours ago, Snowless in Carrollton said:

Why is it so difficult to get sunny days in the midwest ? It seems nearly impossible to get a cloud free day in the winter. I think even the east coast gets more sunshine. Is the midwest the cloudiest region in the country outside of the pacific northwest?

It usually balances out. Here along Lake Michigan it is VERY cloudy during the winter...but our summers are extremely sunny. While the lake destabilizes the atmosphere during the winter, it does the opposite in summer. I can often look to the east in summer and watch the Cumulonimbus and thunderstorms forming. The east coast gets more sunshine because of downsloping off the Appalachians.

[Spartman]

2 hours ago, Snowless in Carrollton said:

Yeah i was talking about completely cloud free with bright blue skies. Seems like even on days when there is sun there are also plenty of clouds. After today it looks like the sun wont be seen again for another week.

597
CXUS51 KILN 180547
CF6DAY
PRELIMINARY LOCAL CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA (WS FORM: F-6)

                                          STATION:   DAYTON OH
                                          MONTH:     FEBRUARY
                                          YEAR:      2018
                                          LATITUDE:   39 54 N
                                          LONGITUDE:  84 12 W

  TEMPERATURE IN F:       :PCPN:    SNOW:  WIND      :SUNSHINE: SKY     :PK WND
================================================================================
1   2   3   4   5  6A  6B    7    8   9   10  11  12  13   14  15   16   17  18
                                     12Z  AVG MX 2MIN
DY MAX MIN AVG DEP HDD CDD  WTR  SNW DPTH SPD SPD DIR MIN PSBL S-S WX    SPD DR
================================================================================

 1  41  14  28   0  37   0    T    T    0 14.7 24 330   M    M  10        30 350
 2  22  11  17 -11  48   0    T    T    0 11.1 21 330   M    M   4 18     26 320
 3  36  15  26  -2  39   0 0.00  0.0    0 13.8 23 200   M    M  10        29 180
 4  38  16  27  -2  38   0 0.12  0.5    T 14.4 29 220   M    M  10 16     39 210
 5  24   5  15 -14  50   0    T  0.1    T  6.4 17 290   M    M   7 1      20 340
 6  26  20  23  -6  42   0 0.04  0.3    T  4.6 14 340   M    M  10 18     15 340
 7  25  20  23  -6  42   0 0.21  1.5    1 10.3 18 330   M    M  10 18     22  20
 8  26   6  16 -13  49   0    T    T    1  8.4 15 230   M    M   7 1      19 230
 9  45  24  35   5  30   0 0.00  0.0    1 10.4 22 200   M    M   9        26 190
10  38  26  32   2  33   0 0.02  0.0    0  9.0 21  20   M    M  10 1      23  10
11  33  27  30   0  35   0 0.10  0.0    0 10.6 20 290   M    M  10 16     25 280
12  34  17  26  -4  39   0 0.00  0.0    0  9.0 15 340   M    M   6        18 340
13  38  17  28  -2  37   0 0.00  0.0    0  7.7 14 200   M    M   6        18 220
14  57  33  45  14  20   0 0.13  0.0    0  9.6 21 230   M    M   9 128    26 230
15  63  54  59  28   6   0 0.63  0.0    0 12.0 22 230   M    M   9 13     27 230
16  56  29  43  12  22   0 0.35  0.0    0 12.5 23 330   M    M  10 1      28 320
17  35  28  32   1  33   0 0.09  0.2    0  6.0 22 270   M    M  10 1      30 290
================================================================================
SM  637  362       600   0  1.69     2.6 170.5          M      147
================================================================================
AV 37.5 21.3                              10.0 FASTST   M    M   9    MAX(MPH)
                                 MISC ---->  # 29 220               # 39  210
================================================================================
NOTES:
# LAST OF SEVERAL OCCURRENCES

COLUMN 17 PEAK WIND IN M.P.H.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA (WS FORM: F-6) , PAGE 2

                                          STATION:  DAYTON OH
                                          MONTH:    FEBRUARY
                                          YEAR:     2018
                                          LATITUDE:   39 54 N
                                          LONGITUDE:  84 12 W

[TEMPERATURE DATA]      [PRECIPITATION DATA]       SYMBOLS USED IN COLUMN 16

AVERAGE MONTHLY: 29.4   TOTAL FOR MONTH:   1.69    1 = FOG OR MIST
DPTR FM NORMAL:  -0.2   DPTR FM NORMAL:    0.33    2 = FOG REDUCING VISIBILITY
HIGHEST:    63 ON 15    GRTST 24HR  0.63 ON 15-15      TO 1/4 MILE OR LESS
LOWEST:      5 ON  5                               3 = THUNDER
                        SNOW, ICE PELLETS, HAIL    4 = ICE PELLETS
                        TOTAL MONTH:   2.6 INCHES  5 = HAIL
                        GRTST 24HR   1.5 ON  7- 7  6 = FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE
                        GRTST DEPTH:   1 ON  9, 8  7 = DUSTSTORM OR SANDSTORM:
                                                       VSBY 1/2 MILE OR LESS
                                                   8 = SMOKE OR HAZE
[NO. OF DAYS WITH]      [WEATHER - DAYS WITH]      9 = BLOWING SNOW
                                                   X = TORNADO
MAX 32 OR BELOW:   5    0.01 INCH OR MORE:   9
MAX 90 OR ABOVE:   0    0.10 INCH OR MORE:   6
MIN 32 OR BELOW:  15    0.50 INCH OR MORE:   1
MIN  0 OR BELOW:   0    1.00 INCH OR MORE:   0

[HDD (BASE 65) ]
TOTAL THIS MO.   600    CLEAR  (SCALE 0-3)   0
DPTR FM NORMAL    -1    PTCLDY (SCALE 4-7)   5
TOTAL FM JUL 1  3929    CLOUDY (SCALE 8-10) 12
DPTR FM NORMAL     5

[CDD (BASE 65) ]
TOTAL THIS MO.     0
DPTR FM NORMAL     0    [PRESSURE DATA]
TOTAL FM JAN 1     0    HIGHEST SLP 30.77 ON 12
DPTR FM NORMAL     0    LOWEST  SLP 29.70 ON 16

[REMARKS]

Although December and last month were better at times this Winter, but the sunniest day so far this month was just on Groundhog Day. I have not even had a nearly cloud-free day this month. As of yesterday, sunshine for this February is approximately at a mediocre 13%. The upcoming rainy week will decrease that percentage a bit as it goes on. Welcome to January 2017 all over again.

[TugHillMatt]

Here's my complaint: We wait forever to get some systems to come up from the SW, and OF COURSE they come when there is no cold air source to be found. If the bloody ridge would break down a bit, we could have gotten some nice systems. The midwest SUCKS for powerful storms that spread-the-wealth in terms of winter weather.

 

Ok. I feel better.

 

[HighTechEE]

Kind of hard to get into the "Winter" Olympics in the middle of winter WHEN ITS IN THE 70s OUT!

 

Just out from ILN:

Record Maximum Temperatures for February 20...
CVG...72 degrees...1891/2016
CMH...68 degrees...1891/2016
DAY...69 degrees...2016

Forecast Maximum Temperatures for February 20 2018...
CVG...77 degrees
CMH...75 degrees
DAY...74 degrees

Record High Minimum Temperatures for February 20...
CVG...52 degrees...1994
CMH...49 degrees...1930
DAY...49 degrees...1930

Forecast Minimum Temperatures for February 20 2018...
CVG...60 degrees
CMH...59 degrees
DAY...60 degrees
 

[Snowstorms]

A very warm start to December coupled with two thaws or warm-ups in January and another in the entire second half of February really takes away from this winter being anything "extraordinary" or "great". Now I hope I don't sound harsh saying that, but every single snow event this winter has been nickle and dime events. This has allowed us to average ~36.0" so far, which isn't bad considering all the warm-ups and lack of s/w influence. Now we finally get the SE ridge, but thanks to the MJO hanging around phase 7, longer than what was initially expected 2-3 weeks ago, were finally getting an active storm track but boy is it ever mild, lol. The next 2-3 storms all look like cutters again and then we finally see the effects of that strong -NAO, but what comes with that is suppression (kind of what the LR GFS is trying to depict >240 hours). The way I see it, our window of opportunity is there but I don't foresee the potential for anything for our sub-forum between now and the first few days of March. SE ridge followed by suppression is a killer combo. A little disappointed it turned out this way. 

Bring on Spring. 

[GreenBo]

50 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

A very warm start to December coupled with two thaws or warm-ups in January and another in the entire second half of February really takes away from this winter being anything "extraordinary" or "great". Now I hope I don't sound harsh saying that, but every single snow event this winter has been nickle and dime events. This has allowed us to average ~36.0" so far, which isn't bad considering all the warm-ups and lack of s/w influence. Now we finally get the SE ridge, but thanks to the MJO hanging around phase 7, longer than what was initially expected 2-3 weeks ago, were finally getting an active storm track but boy is it ever mild, lol. The next 2-3 storms all look like cutters again and then we finally see the effects of that strong -NAO, but what comes with that is suppression (kind of what the LR GFS is trying to depict >240 hours). The way I see it, our window of opportunity is there but I don't foresee the potential for anything for our sub-forum between now and the first few days of March. SE ridge followed by suppression is a killer combo. A little disappointed it turned out this way. 

Bring on Spring. 

If it’s an east based -NAO (which it very well could be) then we won’t have to bring on spring. It will have already arrived.

[beavis1729]

On 2/18/2018 at 2:49 PM, michsnowfreak said:

On the WSI for this winter, Detroit is one of a few places in purple, which means "extreme". The only higher mark is record. Chicago is blue which means "severe" and Duluth is yellow which means "average". It takes into account temps, snow, snow depth etc.

 

http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu/research/awssi/indexAwssi.jsp

Interesting...thanks for the link. Good info.

However, the current winter situation you mentioned in your post (Duluth = average and Detroit = extreme) is only relative to each location’s own climatology...which doesn’t say much. We know that Chicago and Detroit’s winters are very tame on average, so an ”extreme” winter in these locations is probably equivalent to the warmest winter on record in northern MN. In other words, not very noteworthy.

The “Average annual WSI” calculation that I mentioned for northern MN vs. Chicago (120 vs. 8) is based on absolute numbers, and uses a different calculation (only includes days with sub-zero lows or 15+” of snow on the ground).