dmc76 Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 I wouldn’t even get upset if I lived south of the 42nd parallel. I mean you have to understand winter is not a guarantee. Heck, it’s not a guarantee south of the 45th. We don’t live that far north. Detroit is as north as Rome,Italy. Also the last 20 winters. Standards have risen. Growing up in the 80’s and 90’s this winter we are seeing now is pretty much exactly how it was back then. Except maybe that tiny spot in SEMI that has over achieved but close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 Josh has been watching the models concerning this week's system. Meanwhile, on the side streets of Wyandotte: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 2 hours ago, dmc76 said: I wouldn’t even get upset if I lived south of the 42nd parallel. I mean you have to understand winter is not a guarantee. Heck, it’s not a guarantee south of the 45th. We don’t live that far north. Detroit is as north as Rome,Italy. Also the last 20 winters. Standards have risen. Growing up in the 80’s and 90’s this winter we are seeing now is pretty much exactly how it was back then. Except maybe that tiny spot in SEMI that has over achieved but close. Even with the last two winters and 2011-12...the last decade is averaging just over a FOOT above avg. That's 125-130% of avg snowfall the last 10 years. Talk about elevated standards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 1 hour ago, IWXwx said: Josh has been watching the models concerning this week's system. Meanwhile, on the side streets of Wyandotte: Yessir!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 5 hours ago, michsnowfreak said: Can't control the weather, its just weird that this is the 2nd year in a row Winter hit hard and early (this year much harder than last) and now we have a big midwinter thaw (this year less torchy). Just yesterday I realized a little snafu in my up North plans as well. Again...Southeast Michigan has done much better than most of the subforum and I always plan a snow trip in February, so my complaints are always in check. So yesterday I was looking at hotels...everything and i mean EVERYTHING is booked. The lack of snowdepth in northern lower and the southern UP has everyone flocking to the northern UP. It makes it even more amazing that you have SO much on the ground there still when areas just to your south so little. And snowmobilers know it. I think a lot of snowmobilers book up rooms way in advance in certain spots and then cancel right beforehand if they can't make it or conditions aren't right. I know Jonger has said in the past he does this. Also, the UP 200 sled dog race is in February, and I know that draws a big out of town crowd too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 3 hours ago, IWXwx said: Josh has been watching the models concerning this week's system. Meanwhile, on the side streets of Wyandotte: Like he needed an upgrade lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 4 hours ago, IWXwx said: Josh has been watching the models concerning this week's system. Meanwhile, on the side streets of Wyandotte: Geos was going to take that one with him when he relocated to Washington state, but assumed he'd have issues getting that through the Rockies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 3 hours ago, weatherbo said: I think a lot of snowmobilers book up rooms way in advance in certain spots and then cancel right beforehand if they can't make it or conditions aren't right. I know Jonger has said in the past he does this. Also, the UP 200 sled dog race is in February, and I know that draws a big out of town crowd too. That is a good point. But I've never come across this issue before, where everything was booked. I didn't go up in Feb 2014 or 15 because our snow was so deep but normally i always make a trip that time of year regardless how good our winter has been. This year i may not be able to, idk yet. I always say i prefer backloaded winters. Dont get me wrong I love LOVE snow for the Christmas season but Thanksgiving to New Years is such a busy time of year. Between work, holiday activities/parties, and shoveling my huge driveway I didn't have time for as many winter walks as I'd like. Now when things are settled down to boring the thaw comes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 Getting bored of this winter. I need some convection with 50kft cloud tops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 4 hours ago, michsnowfreak said: That is a good point. But I've never come across this issue before, where everything was booked. I didn't go up in Feb 2014 or 15 because our snow was so deep but normally i always make a trip that time of year regardless how good our winter has been. This year i may not be able to, idk yet. I always say i prefer backloaded winters. Dont get me wrong I love LOVE snow for the Christmas season but Thanksgiving to New Years is such a busy time of year. Between work, holiday activities/parties, and shoveling my huge driveway I didn't have time for as many winter walks as I'd like. Now when things are settled down to boring the thaw comes. It's 100% snowmobiles. What dates do you need, I might have a spare room in Newberry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 35 minutes ago, NWLinnCountyIA said: Getting bored of this winter. I need some convection with 50kft cloud tops After suffering thousands in damage to my home, I'm over severe. Chasing it.... that I would do someday. Hopefully not near my house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 21 hours ago, cmillzz said: Our climate is colder than it should be really, mainly due to the warm blob/perennial ridge out west along with the Arctic torching like there's no tomorrow. The fact that we even see monthly departures below the 1981-2010 normals is ridiculous in 2018. dumb. We have cold anomalies at any point in the year. There were ridges pumping record highes into the Midwest in the 1800s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 3 hours ago, NWLinnCountyIA said: Getting bored of this winter. I need some convection with 50kft cloud tops With a nice stovepipe under it. Wake me up when spring begins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 I haven't visited over there, but I'll be there's some weenie roasting on the EC side regarding the day 10 GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 This winter's a broken record, lol. That active pattern once modeled is slowly fading. Latest GFS is clipper central after the 5th which may or may not deliver, lol. I'm all in for spring now. Sad to see storms just falling apart as we we get closer. What a **** winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 13 minutes ago, Snowstorms said: This winter's a broken record, lol. That active pattern once modeled is slowly fading. Latest GFS is clipper central after the 5th which may or may not deliver, lol. I'm all in for spring now. Sad to see storms just falling apart as we we get closer. What a **** winter! Some did have 2011-12 as an analog, which caused a major cringe every time I saw it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 10 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: Some did have 2011-12 as an analog, which caused a major cringe every time I saw it A glorified 2011-2012 lol. Been very dry like that winter too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 12 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: Some did have 2011-12 as an analog, which caused a major cringe every time I saw it The cold has had more success than that winter though. Warmth won out overwhelmingly then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 16 minutes ago, Chambana said: A glorified 2011-2012 lol. Been very dry like that winter too. This winter is wayyy better than 2011-12 here. Absolutely no similarities whatsoever lol. More similarities to 2010-11 than 2011-12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 46 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: This winter is wayyy better than 2011-12 here. Absolutely no similarities whatsoever lol. More similarities to 2010-11 than 2011-12 By glorified I should have clarified I meant much colder. As far as frequent snowfalls, lack of precipitation, lack of any exciting storm for our sub, lack of 6”+ snowfalls for our sub, it’s right up there. Youve been one of the lucky ones to cash in. A lot of us haven’t even cracked double digits in the snowfall department, although I think ORD did nail 10” on the head last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 53 minutes ago, Chambana said: By glorified I should have clarified I meant much colder. As far as frequent snowfalls, lack of precipitation, lack of any exciting storm for our sub, lack of 6”+ snowfalls for our sub, it’s right up there. Youve been one of the lucky ones to cash in. A lot of us haven’t even cracked double digits in the snowfall department, although I think ORD did nail 10” on the head last week. Snow aside, I was referring to temps as well. Plus it wasn't a dry Winter here in 2011-12. Though admittedly I didn't pull up a region wide map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 So with ORD only at 10" with January almost over, I ran some stats to see what it suggests where things may end up when all is said and done. Hint... it's not good. Actually, it's even worse than I imagined. With some minor snow possible in the remaining days of January, I adjusted the criteria a bit to look at seasons with less than 12" through January. In Chicago's official records, there have been 32 seasons that have entered February with less than 12". How many of those 32 years rallied to finish with above average snow? Wait for it. Wait for it. One. Only 1 out of 32 rallied to finish snowier than average, which was 1899-1900. And it barely made it by finishing mere tenths above average. Some years did rally to within a few inches of average but many ended up like 6-12" or more below average. So this winter is going to have to pull off something that has almost been unprecedented in order to reach/exceed average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 33 minutes ago, Hoosier said: So with ORD only at 10" with January almost over, I ran some stats to see what it suggests where things may end up when all is said and done. Hint... it's not good. Actually, it's even worse than I imagined. With some minor snow possible in the remaining days of January, I adjusted the criteria a bit to look at seasons with less than 12" through January. In Chicago's official records, there have been 32 seasons that have entered February with less than 12". How many of those 32 years rallied to finish with above average snow? Wait for it. Wait for it. One. Only 1 out of 32 rallied to finish snowier than average, which was 1899-1900. And it barely made it by finishing mere tenths above average. Some years did rally to within a few inches of average but many ended up like 6-12" or more below average. So this winter is going to have to pull off something that has almost been unprecedented in order to reach/exceed average. GHD III? Book it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 5 hours ago, Hoosier said: The cold has had more success than that winter though. Warmth won out overwhelmingly then. To avoid confusion, I should have done this the first time, lol When I dropped 2011-12 it was in response to this last part of his post: "What a **** winter!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 If anything, this winter has been almost a carbon copy of last winter. Locally, this winter has provided more snow and cold, but the timeline of how things have unfolded is extremely similar. January has been a complete YAAAAAWN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 22 minutes ago, blackrock said: If anything, this winter has been almost a carbon copy of last winter. Locally, this winter has provided more snow and cold, but the timeline of how things have unfolded is extremely similar. January has been a complete YAAAAAWN. Someone posted that the NPAC at 500 mb has been very similar to last winter and I too have noticed an uncanny parallel with how the winter has played out as well. The noted exception being the reversed QBO from last winter. Despite the yawn this month just like last year I'm going to end up with a pretty good snow tally after tonight's little surprise. The cold has allowed LES near the Lakeshore which was almost non-existent last winter. But we've seen the snow pack wiped out several times as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 Hey beavis, here's a gear grinder for you. Paducah is currently running ahead of ORD with snow, 12.4" to 10.0". Checking Paducah's records, there has never been a year that they have outsnowed Chicago... although the Paducah records don't go back as far as what's available for Chicago. It would be pretty amazing if Paducah actually finishes ahead, but there's a ton of time to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 30 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Hey beavis, here's a gear grinder for you. Paducah is currently running ahead of ORD with snow, 12.4" to 10.0". Checking Paducah's records, there has never been a year that they have outsnowed Chicago... although the Paducah records don't go back as far as what's available for Chicago. It would be pretty amazing if Paducah actually finishes ahead, but there's a ton of time to go. No words... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 I knew Jan was a bad month but surprising to see that Gaylord is on pace to for a record low for snowfall for Jan. Quote As of Monday morning, Gaylord had a mere 9.1 inches total for the month, well off its normal January average of 35 inches. In 1956, January had a monthly total of 10.3 inches and January 2010, Gaylord had a total of 15.4 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slow poke Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 4 minutes ago, josh_4184 said: I knew Jan was a bad month but surprising to see that Gaylord is on pace to for a record low for snowfall for Jan. Wow, that's pretty crazy, sounds like you guys should start getting some snow and cold back this week though...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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