2017-2018 Fall/Winter Banter, Whining, Complaining Thread

[hardypalmguy]

Let’s see if we can have another Mid February stretch of 60s this year.


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[Baum]

3 minutes ago, hardypalmguy said:

Let’s see if we can have another Mid February stretch of 60s this year.


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I think that's going to be early Feb. .....mid Feb back in the freezer

[cyclone77]

I'll take the 234hr Euro for $100 Alex.

[Hoosier]

17 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

I'll take the 234hr Euro for $100 Alex.

Pretty bad that I'm fighting the rain/snow line on a surface low coming out of eastern Texas.

[IWXwx]

27 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

I'll take the 234hr Euro for $100 Alex.

 

[WxMatt21]

20 hours ago, Geoboy645 said:

Oh god not another last January. I literally got so depressed by all the fog and rain by the end of that period. How do Seattle people live like that?

Seattle weather is misunderstood, I think Born and raised in the Seattle area (abt 20 years). It was always kind of a drag from about mid October-April, but it was not uncommon to see wicked windstorms, impressive heavy rain events, snowstorms of 6" or greater with fat snowflakes and decent mid-winter thaws (60s above the inversion) in an average fall/winter. 

May-September though? Almost every day features clear blue skies, highs in the upper 70s to near 80 with very low humidity. Summer in Seattle is like no other, and it is not uncommon to go MONTHS with zero rain. 

Missing that climo right now!

[cmillzz]

Would be awesome if this were to verify...

 

[KokomoWX]

ZZZZzzzzzzzz for the remaining month of January seems likely.  I'd love to see some warm 50's and sun before what I hope is a return to winter come February. 

[hardypalmguy]

0z GFS has many areas touch 60 to start February. Any way you look at it winter looks to be dead for awhile.


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[IWXwx]

Highest Daily Snowfall Amounts So Far This Winter:

Raleigh-Durham, NC: 5.9" 1/17/18

Charleston, SC: 5.3" 1/3/18

Jackson, MS: 5.1" 12/8/17

Birmingham, AL: 4.0" 12/8/17

Charlotte, NC: 3.9" 1/17/18

Atlanta, GA: 2.3" 1/17/18

Indianapolis: 2.0" 12/29/17 Doh!

 

[cyclone77]

6 minutes ago, IWXwx said:

Highest Daily Snowfall Amounts So Far This Winter:

Raleigh-Durham, NC: 5.9" 1/17/18

Charleston, SC: 5.3" 1/3/18

Jackson, MS: 5.1" 12/8/17

Birmingham, AL: 4.0" 12/8/17

Charlotte, NC: 3.9" 1/17/18

Atlanta, GA: 2.3" 1/17/18

Indianapolis: 2.0" 12/29/17 Doh!

 

Feb gon' be rockin'!

[Chicago Storm]

Nice pattern we’re heading into...

Rainers with a chance of storms, and mild temps.


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[Snowstorms]

If we see 2-3 back-to-back rain storms in the heart of winter, just give me spring because this is ridiculous. And to make it worse it's the third crap winter in a row. 

Climatically speaking, many of our snowiest winters are La Nina winters. But lately it doesn't matter if its a Nina or Nino, they're all the same, lol. This is the 3rd Nina since 2011 and its another terrible winter. 

Euro weeklies show a real cold February and early March coming. It'll probably be a repeat of what we just experienced and again to reiterate, if that's the case, give me spring. Winter's aren't what they used to be. After years of disappointments, I don't even have hope or have optimism for a winter storm anymore. It just seems to be a scarcity now and in due time, we'll have to accept this new regime. 

Rant over! 

[cyclone77]

Past few GFS runs says we'll be taking our <10" seasonal snowfall into Feb, the shortest met winter month.  Gonna have a lot of making up to do.  Weak northwest flow clippers won't really do the job, especially if they continually track through Michigan lol.

[hlcater]

Complaining time

 

What I see for February is another dry, cold NW flow pattern. More NW flow isn't gonna work here, it hasn't worked all winter, and it won't work now. We are seriously on track for ANOTHER sub 20" season and it's infuriating. None of these patterns work for us. Being overly optimistic is pretty useless at this point, or at least it seems. It truly is a perfect balance of screwage. When we get SW flow any sort of blocking feature disappears and it becomes a hard cutter party and the dakotas and the northwoods get pounded while we have our dry slot drizzle and 995mb pressure(which isn't even good for a solid rain event, go figure) Then HP spills out of Canada and all of our systems get suppressed to the gulf coast and they get snow while we, with our 1" depth get to watch as they get their 3rd or 4th snow event on the season. While we hold out hope that a 4" "big dog" clipper comes through to save us from our subzero tundra misery. Jesus this sucks, although it's not as bad as 2017 at least. At this rate severe weather season better deliver or I'm gonna end up in a mental institution

 

[michsnowfreak]

29 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

If we see 2-3 back-to-back rain storms in the heart of winter, just give me spring because this is ridiculous. And to make it worse it's the third crap winter in a row. 

Climatically speaking, many of our snowiest winters are La Nina winters. But lately it doesn't matter if its a Nina or Nino, they're all the same, lol. This is the 3rd Nina since 2011 and its another terrible winter. 

Euro weeklies show a real cold February and early March coming. It'll probably be a repeat of what we just experienced and again to reiterate, if that's the case, give me spring. Winter's aren't what they used to be. After years of disappointments, I don't even have hope or have optimism for a winter storm anymore. It just seems to be a scarcity now and in due time, we'll have to accept this new regime. 

Rant over! 

I thought Toronto had seen a decent winter to this point?

[Hoosier]

Yeah it's looking pretty bleak for winter storm chances for most... for the foreeeable future.  Always knew this pattern would be risky and it seems to be playing out that way.  At least if we could get some severe chances in this cutter regime, but we probably won't even have that given lack of better moisture return.

[hlcater]

4 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Yeah it's looking pretty bleak for winter storm chances for most... for the foreeeable future.  Always knew this pattern would be risky and it seems to be playing out that way.  At least if we could get some severe chances in this cutter regime, but we probably won't even have that given lack of better moisture return.

It's even risky out here, which I did not see. I was assuming we would see some rainers and some snow, but right now signal is overwhelmingly supportive of a low track through Iowa that only delivers the goods up north. Maybe, maybe the system in 8 days can deliver something, but not holding my breath.

[michsnowfreak]

12 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Yeah it's looking pretty bleak for winter storm chances for most... for the foreeeable future.  Always knew this pattern would be risky and it seems to be playing out that way.  At least if we could get some severe chances in this cutter regime, but we probably won't even have that given lack of better moisture return.

Yup, I heard so many times that people wanted a shake up, a pattern change, something to shake the cold/dry look, even though it comes with risk. Well, here you go, and this is what happens. Consensus is pretty strong for cold returning and likely lasting after this 2 week abortion so Im hoping we can return right back to where we were (but have more cash in). For all but the true severe geeks...severe does nothing. For me, severe wouldn't make any difference.

[SchaumburgStormer]

14 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Yeah it's looking pretty bleak for winter storm chances for most... for the foreeeable future.  Always knew this pattern would be risky and it seems to be playing out that way.  At least if we could get some severe chances in this cutter regime, but we probably won't even have that given lack of better moisture return.

Is it golf season yet? 

 

But for real, can we get a solid warning level event. Getting tired of brutal cold and ratio problems 

[Snowstorms]

28 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

I thought Toronto had seen a decent winter to this point?

When you're getting saved by LES and a couple nickle and dime events, I don't consider it being an amazing start to winter. In 2 weeks, we'll be running below average snow wise, lol. 

If we see nothing for the remainder of the month and average out in Feb/Mar/April we'll still finish below normal for this winter. It's even more bad when you consider how many crap winter's we've had since 2009 alone. It's getting beyond frustrating now to a point where I'm losing my interest in winter as a whole. 

I'm starting to consider 07-08 nothing more than an anomaly in a new regime of winters that's setting up, lol. 

[michsnowfreak]

6 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

When you're getting saved by LES and a couple nickle and dime events, I don't consider it being an amazing start to winter. In 2 weeks, we'll be running below average snow wise, lol. 

If we see nothing for the remainder of the month and average out in Feb/Mar/April we'll still finish below normal for this winter. It's even more bad when you consider how many crap winter's we've had since 2009 alone. It's getting beyond frustrating now to a point where I'm losing my interest in winter as a whole. 

I'm starting to consider 07-08 nothing more than an anomaly in a new regime of winters that's setting up, lol. 

I didn't know how much snow you guys had so far (YYZ isn't easy to look up like any American nws site is, at least for me lol), so that's why I asked. It just seemed like you have been doing decent. A January thaw is common in winter, so hopefully when we reload everyone gets in on stuff. Cold and dry worked out well here snow-wise, so I say bring it on again. Do I want a big storm? OF COURSE. Will I take shoveling smaller snows multiple times a week over mild and wet? ABSOLUTELY!

[Hoosier]

29 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Yup, I heard so many times that people wanted a shake up, a pattern change, something to shake the cold/dry look, even though it comes with risk. Well, here you go, and this is what happens. Consensus is pretty strong for cold returning and likely lasting after this 2 week abortion so Im hoping we can return right back to where we were (but have more cash in). For all but the true severe geeks...severe does nothing. For me, severe wouldn't make any difference.

I was all for a shift despite the risks.  As you know, this winter has been like night and day between Detroit and the Chicago area, and the small snows that have occurred weren't doing much for me. That being said, I was hoping we wouldn't go 0-fer as far as significant snows in this new pattern... maybe we won't but it is starting to look possible.

[michsnowfreak]

10 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I was all for a shift despite the risks.  As you know, this winter has been like night and day between Detroit and the Chicago area, and the small snows that have occurred weren't doing much for me. That being said, I was hoping we wouldn't go 0-fer as far as significant snows in this new pattern... maybe we won't but it is starting to look possible.

While winter has been night and day between Detroit & Chicago, I just feel that a colder weather pattern supports more snow. I mean if things go PERFECT you can get dumped on in a milder, cutting pattern, but many will see rain. EPS shows tons of snow the next 45 days fwiw lol.

 

By the way, wanted to clarify, I meant WINTER severe does nothing for all but the severe geeks. Im all for a good severe storm in spring or summer. But in winter it honestly wouldn't make one iota of difference in a crappy pattern.

[snowstormcanuck]

4 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

I didn't know how much snow you guys had so far (YYZ isn't easy to look up like any American nws site is, at least for me lol), so that's why I asked. It just seemed like you have been doing decent. A January thaw is common in winter, so hopefully when we reload everyone gets in on stuff. Cold and dry worked out well here snow-wise, so I say bring it on again. Do I want a big storm? OF COURSE. Will I take shoveling smaller snows multiple times a week over mild and wet? ABSOLUTELY!

YYZ's at 21.9" for the year. Which is about normal.

It's been fine. But we are overdo for a snowy winter. Haven't seen one of those since 13-14 (and even then, it wasn't historic like where you are).

[Snowstorms]

24 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said:

YYZ's at 21.9" for the year. Which is about normal.

It's been fine. But we are overdo for a snowy winter. Haven't seen one of those since 13-14 (and even then, it wasn't historic like where you are).

Set aside 13-14 and 08-09 is the last snowy winter we had.Thats 9 winters ago. 

January is a writeoff. I thought for sure with that massive Aleutian ridge we could position that PNW trough more favorably for the late January event, but I guess not, lol. Unless February is rockin', and I say February because March has been our worst winter month in recent years, I have a strong feeling we"ll fail to reach average for a 4th winter in a row. Sometimes I wonder if it has anything to do with climate change. 

 

Edit: Also another interesting stat from another perspective. Every city has had their own personal historic winter in recent years. For example; Chicago had 10-11, Detroit had 13-14, NYC had 10-11 and 13-14, Boston had 14-15, and Washington had 09-10. 

 

[BuffaloWeather]

10 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

Set aside 13-14 and 08-09 is the last snowy winter we had.Thats 9 winters ago. 

January is a writeoff. I thought for sure with that massive Aleutian ridge we could position that PNW trough more favorably for the late January event, but I guess not, lol. Unless February is rockin', and I say February because March has been our worst winter month in recent years, I have a strong feeling we"ll fail to reach average for a 4th winter in a row. Sometimes I wonder if it has anything to do with climate change. 

Yeah this year has primarily been lake effect driven around these parts. Almost 100" on the year here, close to 200" in the southern tier of WNY and nearly 300" in Redfield. KBUF is right at 60" without any significant lake snow events. KBUF has had a few garbage winters in a row and hasn't had a large Lake Effect event in a decade. 

[Snowstorms]

1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Yeah this year has primarily been lake effect driven around these parts. Almost 100" on the year here, close to 200" in the southern tier of WNY and nearly 300" in Redfield. KBUF is right at 60" without any significant lake snow events. 

Nothing like 13-14 and 14-15 for you guys. Certainly were due for something widespread, but that doesn't seem to be in the cards. But wow, LES does wonders for you guys. Sometimes I wish I lived in the snowbelts, but then I dont know if I'd enjoy a blizzard every single day. 

[cyclone77]

5 hours ago, Hoosier said:

I was all for a shift despite the risks.  As you know, this winter has been like night and day between Detroit and the Chicago area, and the small snows that have occurred weren't doing much for me. That being said, I was hoping we wouldn't go 0-fer as far as significant snows in this new pattern... maybe we won't but it is starting to look possible.

I was ready for a shake up as well.  I'll take this rainy/warmer pattern over severe cold and clippers that constantly miss well to the northeast.  

[Hoosier]

15 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

 

Edit: Also another interesting stat from another perspective. Every city has had their own personal historic winter in recent years. For example; Chicago had 10-11, Detroit had 13-14, NYC had 10-11 and 13-14, Boston had 14-15, and Washington had 09-10. 

 

imo, winter 13-14 was significantly more "historic" for Chicago than 10-11.  Really the only thing 10-11 has over 13-14 is the GHD storm, while 13-14 lacked a true huge storm there.  13-14 had good snow into March and finished 25" ahead of 10-11.