2017-2018 Fall/Winter Banter, Whining, Complaining Thread

[OrdIowPitMsp]

On 1/1/2018 at 1:50 PM, Hoosier said:

Here is what radar looked like exactly 19 years ago.  Does anyone remember this storm?

The Blizzard of 99!!!!! Received over 20" IMBY during this one. Probably the single most memorable weather event of my childhood right up there with the southern lake county Micro-bust in May of 2000.

[Hoosier]

10 hours ago, buckeye said:

Was that the storm that came north into an entrenched arctic airmass and gave essentially everyone in this sub a nice snowstorm?  If so, also infamous for being forecasted with virtually no model wavering a week in advance.

Yes.  It did seem to be fairly well handled in the days in advance.  Of course I was heavily reliant on TWC as my source of wx info, but I recall they even broke out the rare "heavy snow" area on their graphical forecast.  

[Harry Perry]

6 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

I am very confused by this entire post. Last December 11th you had to have a Warning.

 

And as for this year....you got almost 3 feet of snow in December per Battle Creek numbers, plenty of which was synoptic snow. Where in the world are you getting 5 inches? Snowfall totals ranged from 35.3" at Battle Creek, to 30.9" at Ann Arbor, and 22.5" at Detroit. How did you, right in that west to east line, get only 5"????

Your post made it sound like I have 35” of snow on the ground and it’s still snowing... lol well I don’t - and that’s not what my post was about. 

 

Also, no warning last December. It was north of I-94 IIRC. I’m not complaining about the lake effect snow, if my post came off that way I’ll clear that up.

 

The lack of any southern stream energy thus far has really made me think we have found our pattern (NW flow regime, while southern stream energy goes up the east coast). I do see that Monday may end up being our first significant weather maker in the winter monthes, however latest guidance keeps creeping up our temps to the point where we now have IP/ZR/R in our grids vs. snow. For this reason... my main complaint here on this lovely Banter/Whining/Complaining thread - All of that 35°, wind driven, HEAVY rain we had throughout fall. We had multiple southern stream, moisture laden, SLP’s track that favorable track for all of the sub forum (through each system) that if the temperatures were 5°-10° colder; or better yet, happened a month later, would have been amazing snow producers - yet - we fell into a very dry, cold, snowless (outside of the lake belts) pattern. The only glory from this winter for most in the northern sub, was the two weeks of occasional clippers. 

 

As for for snow totals, while BTL might be at 35” current season total...  currently IMBY, there is 5-6” of wind driven powder and it’s predominantly lake effect and has came in a half inch here, half inch there sort of fashion since last month. Whats the fun in that? You can’t track that.. it just happens. Am I grateful for it? Absolutely... however, we all enjoy tracking southern/northern stream energy that drops 6”+ of snow - something that we used to have on the regular. I’m sure everyone here can attest that the lack of system snow this winter is known.

 

 

[Hoosier]

Snowed here and in Tallahassee on the same day.  Would be curious to find out how many times that has happened

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GdtbpmffbqI

[Hoosier]

Hmm, why didn't my vid automatically embed.

[Stebo]

 

3 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Hmm, why didn't my vid automatically embed.

 

Gotta use the share link on the page, not the direct link which in your case was a mobile link.

[Hoosier]

1 minute ago, Stebo said:

 

 

Gotta use the share link on the page, not the direct link which in your case was a mobile link.

I've done it just fine on mobile before.

[Stebo]

2 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I've done it just fine on mobile before.

Probably just another thing broken with the latest upgrade, read: downgrade

[RogueWaves]

3 hours ago, Harry Perry said:

Your post made it sound like I have 35” of snow on the ground and it’s still snowing... lol well I don’t - and that’s not what my post was about. 

 

Also, no warning last December. It was north of I-94 IIRC. I’m not complaining about the lake effect snow, if my post came off that way I’ll clear that up.

 

The lack of any southern stream energy thus far has really made me think we have found our pattern (NW flow regime, while southern stream energy goes up the east coast). I do see that Monday may end up being our first significant weather maker in the winter monthes, however latest guidance keeps creeping up our temps to the point where we now have IP/ZR/R in our grids vs. snow. For this reason... my main complaint here on this lovely Banter/Whining/Complaining thread - All of that 35°, wind driven, HEAVY rain we had throughout fall. We had multiple southern stream, moisture laden, SLP’s track that favorable track for all of the sub forum (through each system) that if the temperatures were 5°-10° colder; or better yet, happened a month later, would have been amazing snow producers - yet - we fell into a very dry, cold, snowless (outside of the lake belts) pattern. The only glory from this winter for most in the northern sub, was the two weeks of occasional clippers. 

 

As for for snow totals, while BTL might be at 35” current season total...  currently IMBY, there is 5-6” of wind driven powder and it’s predominantly lake effect and has came in a half inch here, half inch there sort of fashion since last month. Whats the fun in that? You can’t track that.. it just happens. Am I grateful for it? Absolutely... however, we all enjoy tracking southern/northern stream energy that drops 6”+ of snow - something that we used to have on the regular. I’m sure everyone here can attest that the lack of system snow this winter is known.

 

 

You're both wrong and right. Last Dec 11th was most certainly a warned storm. M9.1 inches of synoptic in mby, but missed the dbl digits had by those east and west of us (same theme as this year -Uggh!). And yeah, we got so many great S stream systems and over-performing Clippers/Hybrids (15 by my count going back to 13-14) that we likely burned up more than our fair share, lol

[cyclone77]

Would sure love seeing something like this in our sub at some point.  That east coast storm looks pretty sweet tonight.

EDIT:  If you get the chance, run a long loop from the various GOES-16 products.  The bombing storm looks magnificent on many of the products.    

[michsnowfreak]

17 hours ago, Harry Perry said:

Your post made it sound like I have 35” of snow on the ground and it’s still snowing... lol well I don’t - and that’s not what my post was about. 

 

Also, no warning last December. It was north of I-94 IIRC. I’m not complaining about the lake effect snow, if my post came off that way I’ll clear that up.

 

The lack of any southern stream energy thus far has really made me think we have found our pattern (NW flow regime, while southern stream energy goes up the east coast). I do see that Monday may end up being our first significant weather maker in the winter monthes, however latest guidance keeps creeping up our temps to the point where we now have IP/ZR/R in our grids vs. snow. For this reason... my main complaint here on this lovely Banter/Whining/Complaining thread - All of that 35°, wind driven, HEAVY rain we had throughout fall. We had multiple southern stream, moisture laden, SLP’s track that favorable track for all of the sub forum (through each system) that if the temperatures were 5°-10° colder; or better yet, happened a month later, would have been amazing snow producers - yet - we fell into a very dry, cold, snowless (outside of the lake belts) pattern. The only glory from this winter for most in the northern sub, was the two weeks of occasional clippers. 

 

As for for snow totals, while BTL might be at 35” current season total...  currently IMBY, there is 5-6” of wind driven powder and it’s predominantly lake effect and has came in a half inch here, half inch there sort of fashion since last month. Whats the fun in that? You can’t track that.. it just happens. Am I grateful for it? Absolutely... however, we all enjoy tracking southern/northern stream energy that drops 6”+ of snow - something that we used to have on the regular. I’m sure everyone here can attest that the lack of system snow this winter is known.

 

 

Where did I say you have 35" on the ground? I said BTL had 35" in Dec. You made it sound like you had 5" TOTAL by saying "atleast Lake Michigan has produced a few nickle and dime events that’s pushed my total around 5” imby".

 

Battle Creek has records to 1895 and it was the 3rd snowiest December on record. Were there any monster storms? No. But it just sometimes surprises me how snow lovers in MI find anything to complain about even when its good. Its been happening as long as I have been on weather boards as the snow has piled up at a record pace, and this year may be even more unique because of how much snow has fallen in MI and how little elsewhere. Now as I do not live out west in the state like you so I cannot attest to what was synoptic and what was not, so you do maybe have a point there, but out this way I have gotten synoptic falls of 6.7", 4.5", and 4.0" in addition to the lake effect and other nickle and dime stuff, so I find it difficult to believe you havent had a 2" synoptic snowfall. Now, what I CAN attest to is that you did not have "half inch here, half inch there" all the time. Christmas Eve and Day every single report in your area was 6"+ for example. We have other posters in your area (Rogue, Harry) who I am sure can give better numbers.

 

[Hoosier]

Keeping an eye on whether droughty mcdrought intensifies upstream through the winter/spring.  So far it's not too out of control. 

[DaveNay]

Looks like Tom Skilling is on the warm bandwagon.

 

Quote

BIG CHANGES LOOM----Dramatic changes and a decided pullback in the bitterly cold arctic air which has dominated the past 13 days, loom for a huge swath of the U.S. in coming days and weeks. In keeping with this cold season's general pattern of roughly two or three weeks in arctic air then a return to milder Pacific air for about as long, a major North American pattern shift is in the offing over the coming two weeks. While, to be sure, there's still cold days to go, significantly milder air is predicted by major global forecast models to hold by the mid-month 11 to 15 day forecast period--with spells of moderation indicated before then. As we indicated in our winter weather projection, La Nina winters are often noteworthy for their volatility brought on by shifts in jet stream orientations over the course of the season. In the cold phase of such winters, jet streams blowing out of the arctic bring periods of bitter--while in the milder phase, west to east or "zonal" jet streams off the Pacific air take over. 
Check out the temp trend forecasts in five day increments---i.e. for the coming 5 days, then days 6 to 10 and finally days 11 to 15--- generated by the latest runs of the National Weather Service and European Centers global models. 
And check out the two panels I've included which look at the continental temp trends projected in the 21 to 28-day and the 28-35 day range off the European Center's extended model run---temp trends confirmed by runs into similar time ranges by the National Weather Service's CFS2 model and the Canadian Center's CIPS long range model runs out into late January & early February.

 

[RogueWaves]

^^^ So long winter, hasta lavista! 

[Jonger]

Most forecasters base their long range on what the end of each model shows.

Once the GFS/Euro starts showing a return to below normal, they will adjust their forecast.

[Hoosier]

Stating the obvious but until it melts, the snowcover will keep warmups from realizing their full potential.  We have seen some pretty potent out of season warm spells in the past year though so it really wouldn't be a shocker if it happens again.

[michsnowfreak]

Just now, Hoosier said:

Stating the obvious but until it melts, the snowcover will keep warmups from realizing their full potential.  We have seen some pretty potent out of season warm spells in the past year though so it really wouldn't be a shocker if it happens again.

Our snowpack right now is around 6" of crunchy settled powder, and I would guess the water content is 0.6-0.7". Whatever we do get this weekend will just add to it. When a torch is imminent, never underestimate the power of snow-eating SW winds, but while that longrange look is not ideal, I will never be worried about something so far in the future when the models change so much and so often. Dislodging of this bitter cold and getting into a more active? pattern could increase the threat of good storms.

[IWXwx]

7 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Stating the obvious but until it melts, the snowcover will keep warmups from realizing their full potential.  We have seen some pretty potent out of season warm spells in the past year though so it really wouldn't be a shocker if it happens again.

If the GFS has any kind of clue, my measly 3" snowpack will go bye-bye for the expected torch a week later.

[IWXwx]

It seems like every winter as I am fretting over my 3 inches:

 

[pondo1000]

Does anyone have a good site to find snowfall totals for an area? Thanks in advance. 

[IWXwx]

While I'm filling this page with laments about the EC and lack of appreciable snow, I might as well finish the tirade by suggesting that Roger Smith should have included many of the deep South cities in his snowfall contest and excluded many those of south of I 80 in our subforum to make it more exciting.  With Winter Storm "Benji" and now Winter Storm "Gagme"...er.."Grayson" dumping on the South and now the EC, we are left sitting here in the frigid Arctic tundra (11 days of not getting to 20° and counting) hoping to see a few flurries.  So those to the south, north and now east of us have been/are getting buried, while MBY hasn't seen any storm produce over 4.3" since 3/23/15 (and even that was a slopfest). Pathetic.

/End meltdown

[Snowstorms]

1 hour ago, Angrysummons said:

Really shows how spoiled the east coast establishment has become as this isn't good enough for some(and considering where the MJO is moving, they better lick it all up lol). I would kill for this. For me, it has been almost 4 years since my last 6+ inch snowstorm. I-80 southward, winter has not been kind. You guys I-80 and above have cashed in enough to not be jaded.

And yet, they're the loudest complainers when they don't get something their way, lol. I swear I seen something along the lines of that radar image every winter, sometimes 2-3+ times a season for the last few winters. And yet, we can't even buy a half decent 6-8" snowstorm. The last time YYZ recorded an 8"+ snowstorm is February 2013. Absurd if you ask me!

The east coast has had it really good every winter since 2009-10 whereas some of us have gotten shafted couple of times since then. Nina or Nino don't mean crap when we can't even buy a storm in either one. Another disappointing year for many of us thus far. I've lost faith in even hoping for an average season when 6 out of the last 12 winters have been well below normal at YYZ. 

[Stebo]

13 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

And yet, they're the loudest complainers when they don't get something their way, lol. I swear I seen something along the lines of that radar image every winter, sometimes 2-3+ times a season for the last few winters. And yet, we can't even buy a half decent 6-8" snowstorm. The last time YYZ recorded an 8"+ snowstorm is February 2013. Absurd if you ask me!

The east coast has had it really good every winter since 2009-10 whereas some of us have gotten shafted couple of times since then. Nina or Nino don't mean crap when we can't even buy a storm in either one. Another disappointing year for many of us thus far. I've lost faith in even hoping for an average season when 6 out of the last 12 winters have been well below normal at YYZ. 

I hate to be blunt, but **** them. I almost never read any of the east coast subforums because it is always a bunch of people bitching that someone else got 10 more snowflakes than they did. Then you have countless people who slant stick and still get notoriety as if they are some sort of valued poster.

[TugHillMatt]

3 hours ago, Stebo said:

I hate to be blunt, but **** them. I almost never read any of the east coast subforums because it is always a bunch of people bitching that someone else got 10 more snowflakes than they did. Then you have countless people who slant stick and still get notoriety as if they are some sort of valued poster.

You don't hate to be blunt. You just ARE blunt. lol... Your rant made me chuckle. I also have noticed what you mentioned here. It is part of the personality of East coast living. 

[Jackstraw]

17 minutes ago, blackrock said:

You don't hate to be blunt. You just ARE blunt. lol... Your rant made me chuckle. I also have noticed what you mentioned here. It is part of the personality of East coast living. 

They's all Chowder Heads.  Nuff said.

[buckeye]

5 hours ago, IWXwx said:

While I'm filling this page with laments about the EC and lack of appreciable snow, I might as well finish the tirade by suggesting that Roger Smith should have included many of the deep South cities in his snowfall contest and excluded many those of south of I 80 in our subforum to make it more exciting.  With Winter Storm "Benji" and now Winter Storm "Gagme"...er.."Grayson" dumping on the South and now the EC, we are left sitting here in the frigid Arctic tundra (11 days of not getting to 20° and counting) hoping to see a few flurries.  So those to the south, north and now east of us have been/are getting buried, while MBY hasn't seen any storm produce over 4.3" since 3/23/15 (and even that was a slopfest). Pathetic.

/End meltdown

Well said 

[Harry]

6 hours ago, Stebo said:

I hate to be blunt, but **** them. I almost never read any of the east coast subforums because it is always a bunch of people bitching that someone else got 10 more snowflakes than they did. Then you have countless people who slant stick and still get notoriety as if they are some sort of valued poster.

 

 

NOBODY and i mean NOBODY along and east of I-95 should complain for the next 100 years. Not with what they have been getting going back to 09-10.. This especially applies to those in New England!

 

Me? I am ready for a little warmer weather believe it or not..

[buckeye]

12 hours ago, Harry said:

 

 

NOBODY and i mean NOBODY along and east of I-95 should complain for the next 100 years. Not with what they have been getting going back to 09-10.. This especially applies to those in New England!

 

Me? I am ready for a little warmer weather believe it or not..

Hi Harry!

Hell you don't even have to go back to 09-10.    They've managed to hit the mega ball even recently.   I was skimming through the MA forum awhile back and someone in the DC area was complaining and started out by saying, "...other than the January16 blizzard...."  I stopped reading at that point.

That blizzard was epic.  It came in a period of an otherwise bland weather pattern and models locked onto it for 5 or 6 days out giving them an awesome lead time for tracking.  I think most of them ended up with something like 30 or 40".    That alone should shut up the ingrates for the next 20 years .    They all deserve a true DC winter!

[Snowstorms]

25 minutes ago, buckeye said:

Hi Harry!

Hell you don't even have to go back to 09-10.    They've managed to hit the mega ball even recently.   I was skimming through the MA forum awhile back and someone in the DC area was complaining and started out by saying, "...other than the January16 blizzard...."  I stopped reading at that point.

That blizzard was epic.  It came in a period of an otherwise bland weather pattern and models locked onto it for 5 or 6 days out giving them an awesome lead time for tracking.  I think most of them ended up with something like 30 or 40".    That alone should shut up the ingrates for the next 20 years .    They all deserve a true DC winter!

Screw them! They whine every winter when something doesn't meet their expectations. That New England Forum is a crap show when they go a week or two without a storm. When you step back and look at the bigger picture, they've done well every season since 08-09. But no, they like to bring up that one 07-08 season where we got everything and they didn't. Even in 11-12, they had that monster Halloween storm lol. 

They've had enough in recent years to last a life-time. How often can you imagine getting a 15-25+" storm, sometimes 2x+, a winter for the last 8-10 winters. While there climatology for snow goes up, ours is coming down. 

[michsnowfreak]

36 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

Screw them! They whine every winter when something doesn't meet their expectations. That New England Forum is a crap show when they go a week or two without a storm. When you step back and look at the bigger picture, they've done well every season since 08-09. But no, they like to bring up that one 07-08 season where we got everything and they didn't. Even in 11-12, they had that monster Halloween storm lol. 

They've had enough in recent years to last a life-time. How often can you imagine getting a 15-25+" storm, sometimes 2x+, a winter for the last 8-10 winters. While there climatology for snow goes up, ours is coming down. 

While they do seem to whine, one thing to note. Everyone complains when there is no action going on, no matter how good things have been going. I have learned that myself in the Great Lakes lol. So it comes with the territory. Along with bigger storms their climate is for longer periods of boring too. 2011-12 was a train wreck everywhere. I mean everyone has a right to complain. We can have the snowiest winter on record but 5 days without action the gripes will start. I saw it happen lol. But again their forum is definitely filled with some characters. Some good posters and good mets but also some slant stickers and drama queens.

 

And as for Toronto I just can't figure out how most of new England and the Great Lakes have seen such an increase in snow this century and Toronto a decrease. Of course Toronto is off to a good start this season.