2017-2018 Fall/Winter Banter, Whining, Complaining Thread

[Hoosier]

Just now, IWXwx said:

You really had to stretch for that one, didn't you? lol

Nice little January thaw showing up, eh?

It was either that or Ollie Williams "It's gon rain"

[Jackstraw]

I think the Canuk expects the sun to go out.

[Snowstorms]

17 minutes ago, IWXwx said:

You really had to stretch for that one, didn't you? lol

Nice little January thaw showing up, eh?

MJO expected to go into phase 2-3 as we progress into January, increasing the chances of some relaxation as we head past January 5th. As well, the current EPO block is expected to weaken allowing the SE Ridge to begin flexing its muscles.

Now will this allow for more stormier weather is anybody's guess. I don't got my hopes up high, as December has been completely dominated by the northern stream (clippers) and not everyone has benefited from them. Nina's can plague the models quite a bit cause of their tendency to strengthen the polar jetstream and we've witnessed that quite a bit over the last few weeks, haha! Lets see!

[IWXwx]

7 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

MJO expected to go into phase 2-3 as we progress into January, increasing the chances of some relaxation as we head past January 5th. As well, the current EPO block is expected to weaken allowing the SE Ridge to begin flexing its muscles.

Now will this allow for more stormier weather is anybody's guess. I don't got my hopes up high, as December has been completely dominated by the northern stream (clippers) and not everyone has benefited from them. Nina's can plague the models quite a bit cause of their tendency to strengthen the polar jetstream and we've witnessed that quite a bit over the last few weeks, haha! Lets see!

Thanks and a flip is not a big surprise as wall-to-wall cold is not expected in a Nina.

[RCNYILWX]

MJO expected to go into phase 2-3 as we progress into January, increasing the chances of some relaxation as we head past January 5th. As well, the current EPO block is expected to weaken allowing the SE Ridge to begin flexing its muscles.
Now will this allow for more stormier weather is anybody's guess. I don't got my hopes up high, as December has been completely dominated by the northern stream (clippers) and not everyone has benefited from them. Nina's can plague the models quite a bit cause of their tendency to strengthen the polar jetstream and we've witnessed that quite a bit over the last few weeks, haha! Lets see!

The pattern change is showing up in the ensembles in the long range with the return of the southeast ridge. On recent runs, the look of the GEFS h5 mean and anomalies would be more supportive of a cold enough active look albeit with a warm risk from cutters that cut too much. This is due to positive height anomalies remaining near Alaska out to the Aleutians, which would keep the cold going into Canada and the northern Plains.

The past few EPS runs I looked at gave off more of a furnace vibe with negative height anomalies over AK and positive anomalies remaining south of the Aleutians along with a strong southeast ridge signal. Recent experience has shown that the above look often results in temp anomalies warmer than from the ensemble mean. I'm hoping for a classic Niña gradient pattern if/when the pattern change arrives, so pulling for a GEFS like look to win out.

Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk

[Hoosier]

I wonder if we get a messy/icy system as the pattern shifts (down the road). There is a lot of cold to modify.  Or at least one of those where the ground is still icing with 2m temps above freezing.

[Baum]

Can't we at least enjoy our 7-10 days of 15 degree highs and -5 lows punctuated with Flurries before we start talking about 38 degrees and fog and drizzle ? Betting Angry summons already sees our next Colorado low on deck....

[buckeye]

1 hour ago, Baum said:

Can't we at least enjoy our 7-10 days of 15 degree highs and -5 lows punctuated with Flurries before we start talking about 38 degrees and fog and drizzle ? Betting Angry summons already sees our next Colorado low on deck....

12z EPS is brutal.  Outside of lake belts,  the entire subforum shows 2-4" of mean snowfall over the next 15 days in spite of bitter cold through most of the period.   By day 15 temps are above normal too.   

It really is incredible just how hard its been to get a decent snow anymore.   

Can we go another winter without a warning criteria snow?    I think we will.

 

[Hoosier]

34 minutes ago, buckeye said:

12z EPS is brutal.  Outside of lake belts,  the entire subforum shows 2-4" of mean snowfall over the next 15 days in spite of bitter cold through most of the period.   By day 15 temps are above normal too.   

It really is incredible just how hard its been to get a decent snow anymore.   

Can we go another winter without a warning criteria snow?    I think we will.

 

Maybe you will get it in March/April when you don't want it.

[buckeye]

26 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Maybe you will get it in March/April when you don't want it.

No doubt

[cyclone77]

5 hours ago, Hoosier said:

You rain?

Lol.  It's been so dry the last few months I really wouldn't be that torn up if we had a heavy rain event.

[Snowstorms]

5 hours ago, RCNYILWX said:

The pattern change is showing up in the ensembles in the long range with the return of the southeast ridge. On recent runs, the look of the GEFS h5 mean and anomalies would be more supportive of a cold enough active look albeit with a warm risk from cutters that cut too much. This is due to positive height anomalies remaining near Alaska out to the Aleutians, which would keep the cold going into Canada and the northern Plains.

The past few EPS runs I looked at gave off more of a furnace vibe with negative height anomalies over AK and positive anomalies remaining south of the Aleutians along with a strong southeast ridge signal. Recent experience has shown that the above look often results in temp anomalies warmer than from the ensemble mean. I'm hoping for a classic Niña gradient pattern if/when the pattern change arrives, so pulling for a GEFS like look to win out.

Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk
 

Great points, I concur! 

To add to your points, one thing we observed through Fall (especially October-November) and into December is that whenever we did see any negative anomalies or a vortex around AK, it wasn't prolonged and ridging around AK or the Aleutians would build back after a moderate relaxation. Should the EPS be correct, I believe it will eventually revert back to continual ridging around that region after a brief pattern reshuffle. The MJO, which for the most part was in favourable phases for cold anomalies in the east in December, may have masked some of the typical Nina pattern (i.e. SE Ridge) we are commonly used to. This perhaps created a hybrid pattern (strong polar jet, ridging around AK)? Correct me if I'm wrong. Perhaps with the MJO expected to go through phases 2-3-4, we may see a more classic gradient type pattern in January as you mentioned. One can hope. 

 

[Baum]

Here's the reality with this La Niña. Pacific jet will rule with long periods of mild temps followed by intrusions of arctic air causing very cold, but dry conditions. It seems storms coming from the southwest being able to tap gulf moisture entwined with arctic air will be few and far between. The winter pattern seems to be establishing itself. I will cherish my 1-3 inch fluff snows from clippers, and hope for a 4-6 inch warm advection event as pacific air overruns retreating Arctic air. Btw didn't realize this was in the crybaby forum as personally my Christmas Eve snowfall scores many points.

[cyclone77]

3 hours ago, Baum said:

Here's the reality with this La Niña. Pacific jet will rule with long periods of mild temps followed by intrusions of arctic air causing very cold, but dry conditions. It seems storms coming from the southwest being able to tap gulf moisture entwined with arctic air will be few and far between. The winter pattern seems to be establishing itself. I will cherish my 1-3 inch fluff snows from clippers, and hope for a 4-6 inch warm advection event as pacific air overruns retreating Arctic air. Btw didn't realize this was in the crybaby forum as personally my Christmas Eve snowfall scores many points.

lol @ crybaby.  

 

[Stebo]

28 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

lol @ crybaby.  

 

Yeah trying to figure out that post.

[Baum]

6 hours ago, Stebo said:

Yeah trying to figure out that post.

Should have been crybaby "thread" not"forum" as the post seemed more appropriate for the mid to long range thread. Does that help you?

[Stebo]

4 hours ago, Baum said:

Should have been crybaby "thread" not"forum" as the post seemed more appropriate for the mid to long range thread. Does that help you?

Sure? Lol

[cmillzz]

Chicago/Milwaukee crew (along with the twin cities and east IA) has every right to complain, that’s for sure.

[KokomoWX]

9 minutes ago, cmillzz said:

Chicago/Milwaukee crew (along with the twin cities and east IA) has every right to complain, that’s for sure.

Nah.  They had Ground Hog Day when I got pingers.  I'm still bitter.  

[DaveNay]

27 minutes ago, KokomoWX said:

They had Ground Hog Day...

You're gonna have to be more specific than that. LOL 

[Hoosier]

27 minutes ago, KokomoWX said:

Nah.  They had Ground Hog Day when I got pingers.  I'm still bitter.  

Since you mentioned that storm, it got me thinking about something.  This may not be true everywhere in the Midwest but I think it's mostly true that much of the 80s-90s were pretty brutal for big storm action (talking over a foot).  The period from the late 90s to 2015 seems like it was better... in fact I would say that almost everybody got in on at least 1 or 2 big ones in that time (certainly more for some folks).  Throw in some snowy winters and the overall effect has been to make the down stretches seem even more brutal.

[buckeye]

36 minutes ago, cmillzz said:

Chicago/Milwaukee crew (along with the twin cities and east IA) has every right to complain, that’s for sure.

Even when factoring in for climatology, I think it's fair to say the Indy---->CMH crowd is arguably holding the most valid complaint cards of the sub...or at least a very close second to the IA folks.   

Meanwhile up in the motor city, a weenie farting in the winter generates an advisory level event within 24 hours.   If there truly is 'balance' in weather, Detroit has one hell of a snow drought coming due.   

[buckeye]

11 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Since you mentioned that storm, it got me thinking about something.  This may not be true everywhere in the Midwest but I think it's mostly true that much of the 80s-90s were pretty brutal for big storm action (talking over a foot).  The period from the late 90s to 2015 seems like it was better... in fact I would say that almost everybody got in on at least 1 or 2 big ones in that time (certainly more for some folks).  Throw in some snowy winters and the overall effect has been to make the down stretches seem even more brutal.

Off the cuff I can think of April '87 here in CMH, (a foot that melted the next day).   We also did very well with the January '96 eastcoast blizzard (that was around a foot give or take from Cincy to CMH).   But yea, other than those two I can't think of any other big dogs in that time frame.

[zinski1990]

Living in Central Indiana (Avon West side of Indy) our winters here have sucked the past few years. Quite a few storms missing us to the north but the big dog storms to the south such as the feb and early march 2015 mega kentucky storms, jan 2016 also in ky, and the fluke southeast snows. Last time we had a winter storm warning was march 2nd 2015

[buckeye]

22 minutes ago, zinski1990 said:

Living in Central Indiana (Avon West side of Indy) our winters here have sucked the past few years. Quite a few storms missing us to the north but the big dog storms to the south such as the feb and early march 2015 mega kentucky storms, jan 2016 also in ky, and the fluke southeast snows. Last time we had a winter storm warning was march 2nd 2015

yep...

you kind of expect to be missed north and west simply based on climatology....but those southern misses, with their sharp cut-offs were a real kick in the ***.

The other thing I recall about those sytems was the models seemed to catch on about 4 or 5 days out.  Since it always seemed we were screwed with north trending systems, we waited and waited for a north trend to show on the models to benefit us... and it never happened.

[vespasian70]

30 minutes ago, buckeye said:

Off the cuff I can think of April '87 here in CMH, (a foot that melted the next day).   We also did very well with the January '96 eastcoast blizzard (that was around a foot give or take from Cincy to CMH).   But yea, other than those two I can't think of any other big dogs in that time frame.

2000 to the early 2010s were better as far as "big dogs" and general snows for us in Ohio. As a kid growing up in north central OH I cannot think of very many snowy winters in the late 80s to late 90s.

[Hoosier]

58 minutes ago, buckeye said:

Even when factoring in for climatology, I think it's fair to say the Indy---->CMH crowd is arguably holding the most valid complaint cards of the sub...or at least a very close second to the IA folks.   

Meanwhile up in the motor city, a weenie farting in the winter generates an advisory level event within 24 hours.   If there truly is 'balance' in weather, Detroit has one hell of a snow drought coming due.   

The I-70 corridor may be holding a permanent card.  Here's a map of all-time biggest snowstorms by location.  I put this together about 5 years ago and haven't updated it so all the numbers may no longer be accurate, but you can see a relative min around the I-70 corridor.  Areas north and south have had bigger snowstorms.

 

[zinski1990]

Yah living along the I70 corridor is fun with weather but man winter weather is so stressful. I can also think of the dec 22-23 2004 pre christmas storm we still got around 9-10 inches where I am but places just south like south side of indy easily over a foot and the 20-30 inches plus zone was about 30-40 miles south. Another storm I remember missing me to the north was a few weeks after on jan 4-6 2005. Here in Indy it rained just rained for a god 30-36 hours while a row of counties north ice and an ice storm and major snow storm north of that. It is rare we have a solid widespread heavy snow in Indiana. Perhaps the Polar Vortex Storm on Jan 5 2014 and Jan 26-28 2009 are the only big ones I remember

 

[zinski1990]

37 minutes ago, buckeye said:

yep...

you kind of expect to be missed north and west simply based on climatology....but those southern misses, with their sharp cut-offs were a real kick in the ***.

The other thing I recall about those sytems was the models seemed to catch on about 4 or 5 days out.  Since it always seemed we were screwed with north trending systems, we waited and waited for a north trend to show on the models to benefit us... and it never happened.

and yes those southern misses suck worse than the northern ones basically because u completely miss the storm and are left in boring 10-20 degree air. And yes why don't they ever trend north for us when they are to the south but last minute go north when we are in the sweet spot?

[Jonger]

29 minutes ago, zinski1990 said:

and yes those southern misses suck worse than the northern ones basically because u completely miss the storm and are left in boring 10-20 degree air. And yes why don't they ever trend north for us when they are to the south but last minute go north when we are in the sweet spot?

It depends on whether you have snow on the ground already. When we have snow, a miss to the north will wipe out the cover.