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2017-2018 Fall/Winter Banter, Whining, Complaining Thread


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On December 9, 2017 at 6:58 PM, NWLinnCountyIA said:

I'm not sure why Ohio peeps think they need their own threads. Not trying to be ignorant(EDIT: It also doesnt really bother me), I'm legitimately curious as to why this is. 

 

From what I recall, Steve always made an "Ohio and Surrounding States" before sub-forums were a thing.  So it gave us a place to discuss separate from the much larger east coast contingent.  It carried over when sub forums were made and perhaps is a bit redundant.  Then, the people in Ohio who didn't get lake effect got tired of reading about us northerners getting a lot of snow when they struggled to get any, so at that point we spread the Ohio thread into a general Ohio thread and a northern Ohio thread. Yes, really. 

 

The real reason I came into this thread was to complain about snow spotters being lazy when there's wind.  I spent a solid 10 minutes taking a lot of measurements all over my apartment complex as the spot I initially planned to be my designated spot appeared scoured a bit by the winds.  I measured close to 2" in my "spot." There was no snow on the ground to start so any snow that was on the ground fell within the last 12 hours. Came up with a 2.6" amount, with some additional snow after that.  Spotters nearby that are a little higher up and per radar got at least as much snow as me if not more are coming in with less.  It is a picky thing to b**ch about but if there's 20-30MPH wind gusts you can't just stick the ruler straight into the board and take one measurement and hope it works.  As for figuring out new snow for my next 12 hour measurement, cleared several spots off to the side of my building, but it's still blowing around a bit now so it'll be interesting if it snows substantially again this afternoon. 

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2 hours ago, IWXwx said:

One of the hardest things to do in weather observing is getting an ACCURATE snowfall/snow depth reading in windy conditions. Sounds like you have a good plan.

I hate trying to come up with an accurate measurement when there is blowing and drifting.  Even my mostly-sheltered backyard only helps so much.  During the strongest storms, the northeast wind drives through an opening and renders my snow boards worthless.

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6 minutes ago, KokomoWX said:

I am getting a tad frustrated with the GFS.  I cannot even get a fantasy storm.  Sigh.  

GFSMW_prec_kuchsnow_384 (1).png

Seems to be the norm of late unfortunately.  At least we've seen somewhat of an increase in severe weather of late. I'd gladly trade a couple of those events for a nice foot deep  whiteout.

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Speaking of ridiculous maps, I was reading some of the GHD 2011 threads for the first time in a long time and one thing I remember being posted but couldn't find were those maps that had like 30-38" in northern IL.  I think it might have been the RPM that was shown on WGN.  If anyone can point me to that, I'd appreciate it.

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35 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Speaking of ridiculous maps, I was reading some of the GHD 2011 threads for the first time in a long time and one thing I remember being posted but couldn't find were those maps that had like 30-38" in northern IL.  I think it might have been the RPM that was shown on WGN.  If anyone can point me to that, I'd appreciate it.

Seriously, how wild would it have been if that storm had produced those amounts?  I remember thinking ORD had a shot at their record, but it came up a little short.  The extreme winds probably didn't help (flake shattering)... perhaps they would've gotten it with less winds?

It would take a perfect setup, but imo there is no reason to think there couldn't be a 3 foot synoptic storm in the Midwest... even in places like Chicago or Detroit.  We have already seen it happen if you include the Halloween 1991 storm in which Duluth reached 3 feet. That was a slow mover (the "perfect storm" was occurring off the east coast at that time and acted as a bit of a blocker).  There have been others that have produced isolated totals near/over 30", like the December 2004 storm and that storm in April 2005.  January 1978 might be another one, but the lines get blurred as far as what is synoptic and what is lake effect.  

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4 hours ago, josh_4184 said:

Euro Ens Mean may be a little more realistic then the crazy long range GFS lately. Still showing a white Xmas for many.

 

eps_acc_snow_greatlakes_360.png

I'm not a big fan of those to be honest. Ensembles for patterns in the longer range, yes, but those snow maps often seem to be too smoothed at long range.  I do think it can be useful for answering "is this a pattern that could produce snow?"

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A couple more weak clippers Fri and Sat for the same areas that have received that last several, and then good riddance to this particular clipper pattern.  Happy for all those GL peeps who have benefited from this, but I'm hoping the next time we get a long-duration clipper pattern we get a little more variability in the baroclinic zone to spread the wealth some.

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5 hours ago, Hoosier said:

It's funny to compare last year to this year. Regionally, last year had the better start to winter.  Hopefully the idea of what happened through mid-December not being an indication of what happens the rest of the way is what occurs this time.

map_btd.png.1ded769eb39739bca38fe3152b33ae02.png

 

map_btd-1.png.1b74de30e4a767d1fb4fe8940f1684aa.png

 

I love the little circle of despair around LAF in both years

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It'll be a frustrating month if we don't get something between now and December 31st. Besides a couple clippers we've seen this month so far, where Detroit has primarily cashed in, the rest of us are sitting below normal to well below normal snow-wise this month. 

The Dec 21-23rd storm so far looks warm and rainy for most of us and the "Christmas Day storm" is looking like a dud, lol. Losing a whole month is catastrophic. Can't say I'm impressed by what the pattern looks like over the next 15 days, because it doesn't look really amazing other than another cold outbreak. However, given the amount of moving pieces all across the Pacific, I'd expect alot of fluctuations on the models over the next 2 weeks, so lets see! 

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Ran some snowfall numbers for Chicago, based on this year's total through December 15 (probably could've extended out to at least the 20th given no snow in the near future), and the news is not great.  38 seasons have had 2.1" or less through December 15.  Of those, 27 went on to finish with below average snow while 11 finished above.  If there's any good news, it's that slow starts have been a little less of a death sentence in more recent decades, with 8 out of those 11 "rally" seasons coming since 1960.  

Unless something changes fast, we are probably getting to the point where we can almost rule out a historic snow season, unless Chicago can pull off a Boston 2015 type comeback.  The 3 snowiest seasons (1978-79, 1977-78, 2013-14) had anywhere from 15.1-38.5 inches at the end of December.  

Would note that one year that fell just outside the cutoff of 2.1" or less through 12/15 was 1966-67.  That year had only 3.0" through December 15 and finished with 68.4"

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I'm at 12.5" as of this morning. That's 1/4 my annual total already, and safe to say more than avg for an entire December. Been an awesome active first 8 days since winter showed up. Since snow often melts off to just piles and drifts around these parts, I consider it winter any time we have snow OTG, or plow piles surviving until the next plow-able event. By that measure, winter should be here to stay. We look to lose a fair amount of snow cover, but those 8 and 10 foot high piles aren't going anywhere fast..

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22 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

I'm at 12.5" as of this morning. That's 1/4 my annual total already, and safe to say more than avg for an entire December. Been an awesome active first 8 days since winter showed up. Since snow often melts off to just piles and drifts around these parts, I consider it winter any time we have snow OTG, or plow piles surviving until the next plow-able event. By that measure, winter should be here to stay. We look to lose a fair amount of snow cover, but those 8 and 10 foot high piles aren't going anywhere fast..

You average 50"?  Would've thought more.

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