HPC AM Discussion

[usedtobe]

this is 100% wrong

I don't think it is, The gem develops the low way farther east than the euro and the euro esnemble is at least 100 mile east of it. I guess we'll agree to disagree.

[Kevin Druff]

I don't think it is, The gem develops the low way farther east than the euro and the euro esnemble is at least 100 mile east of it. I guess we'll agree to disagree.

Wes: The Euro ENS is 100 miles east of the GEM? Or 100 miles E of the Euro Op? TIA.

[donsutherland1]

I was happy to see the GFS come into closer alignment with the 0z ECMWF ensemble means (a reasonable idea) that has some room for adjustment. I believe the GFS has reaffirmed the idea that a moderate snowstorm is still a reasonable possibility. It will be interesting to see if the 12z ECMWF holds firm with its track or shifts closer to the 12z GFS solution, perhaps leading to an evolving model consensus.

[Rainshadow]

Wes: The Euro ENS is 100 miles east of the GEM? Or 100 miles E of the Euro Op? TIA.

I think Wes meant the op ecmwf. The 12z ecmwf ensemble mean looks faster, hard to say if its farther offshore without seeing the previous snapshot. There is alot of uncertainty just based on the sd(s) as to where the center is, but even given the ensemble mean track, it would be a hit.

[Rainshadow]

Tony have you changed your do or die time from Thursday 12Z yet?

00z Friday. 12z tomorrow may still work, the southern short wave comes onshore.

There is not much difference between the euro and gfs with the southern stream short wave, the difference today is how they phase.