OHweather Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 65/44/24/0. We'll see if the home field advantage helps me or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted November 28, 2017 Author Share Posted November 28, 2017 66/45/24 Well seeing I'm pretty close to OHwether is comforting. I really was freaking out about the low. I felt like I should go lower but ultimately decided there'd be enough southerly wind and clouds to warm them even if they do slip into the low 40s before 06z. Went aggressive on the high with 12-13C 925 mb temps. and a strong southerly wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 I went more conservative today--64/43/20. Looks like the aggressive forecasts payed off. Nice work guys! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 Today was ok...am hoping to sneak another 1-2 knots out of the wind later ahead of the front, but I sort of doubt I get that. For tomorrow, tough forecast, went 57/32/21/0 Pretty good agreement on temps dipping a bit through 1-2z and then rising a little bit late this evening. It's very rare that models keep CLE's temp warm enough at night when there's a good SW wind, and clouds increase soon, so I went a little warmer than the HRRR for the 6z high. It's handling the current temps at CLE well enough and is just a little too cool by a degree or two upstream, so I don't think the high will be much warmer than 57 or 58, but I also doubt it's much cooler. The low for tomorrow evening was pretty tough. There is some wooded area surrounding the airport and they're next to a river valley so they can radiate well if conditions are right...the PGF is very weak tomorrow evening, skies look clear, dew points will be below freezing, and CLE can cool fairly well with a very light SE wind...which along with many raw models (including the Euro) quickly dropping below freezing tomorrow evening made it intriguing. I leaned towards the cooler models but didn't quite go all out as I'm not 100% confident. If temps are a little warmer than modeled during the FROPA tonight there's a brief window for winds near 20 knots along and just behind the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted November 29, 2017 Author Share Posted November 29, 2017 Well, we couldn't be farther apart for tomorrow. Admittedly, didn't have very much time to forecast with my stupid work schedule. Definitely should have known the high would be at night though which I completely missed. 48/37/14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveSN+ Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 53/32/17/0 Looked like the max winds will probably be right around 6z as the front passes sometime around then, along with the high. Looks like the high may be a few degrees higher, but I am confident the low will probably be even lower than 32. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 55/34/21/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 58 is the temp at 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 If I get close on the wind for today (which I think it will be) it'll be a good day regardless, but the low I'm nervous about. It may get stuck at 35-36 with temps running several degrees warmer than modeled right now, a short window of good radiating conditions, and the raw models backing off a bit on the cold conditions this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 53/34/18 for today Really tough to say what the temperature will do after sunset tonight or where it will be at 06 UTC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 57/36/19/0.05 most uncertain with precip and low temp (at 6z tn probably) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 53/38/19/0.04 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted November 30, 2017 Author Share Posted November 30, 2017 53/32/21/0.06 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 56/37/18/0.10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 47/33/10/0 Wasn't confident in the low...if the land breeze can overpower the onshore flow late tonight they could get below freezing late...pretty close to 50/50 odds IMO. If they keep some onshore wind they'll stay up a few degrees. For tomorrow evening good conditions to drop but increasing high clouds makes that questionable as well. For the high, there's a pretty stout low-level inversion that should limit mixing heights and the potential to get too much warmer than guidance. Dew points upstream are in the 20s with no hints of stratus, even downwind of Lake Michigan, so I don't buy the models keeping a low deck of stratus under the inversion all day...so I doubt they're stuck in the low 40s like some of the hi-res models have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 48/32/11/0 Looks like I'm nearly identical to the competition (Colorado State). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 44/32/12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 1, 2017 Author Share Posted December 1, 2017 1 hour ago, OHweather said: 47/33/10/0 Wasn't confident in the low...if the land breeze can overpower the onshore flow late tonight they could get below freezing late...pretty close to 50/50 odds IMO. If they keep some onshore wind they'll stay up a few degrees. For tomorrow evening good conditions to drop but increasing high clouds makes that questionable as well. For the high, there's a pretty stout low-level inversion that should limit mixing heights and the potential to get too much warmer than guidance. Dew points upstream are in the 20s with no hints of stratus, even downwind of Lake Michigan, so I don't buy the models keeping a low deck of stratus under the inversion all day...so I doubt they're stuck in the low 40s like some of the hi-res models have. How bout the southerly winds tomorrow night? Or are they light enough you think it won't have an impact on rad. cooling? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 1, 2017 Author Share Posted December 1, 2017 47/34/10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 13 hours ago, H2Otown_WX said: How bout the southerly winds tomorrow night? Or are they light enough you think it won't have an impact on rad. cooling? They could be just enough to stop a hard drop from occurring...although it's moot now since they hit 29 this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 58/29/31/0.18 Fun forecast! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 58/30/30/0.36 really tough forecast, def gambled on precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 5, 2017 Author Share Posted December 5, 2017 56/30/27/0.24 Made most of my forecast last night without the benefit of the USL. I ultimately decided my original high of 53F was too low especially given what happened last week. I kept everything else the same though I did consider upping the winds a bit given how impressive the GFS MOS 3 hourlies were. Hoping that since it's going to be a WAA situation the wind won't mix enough to get them to 30 kts+ at least tonight. All bets are off when the front goes through. The low is interesting to me, I could see how the USL ends up being right as they more or less run out of cold air to advect and just sit in the mid-30s. However, it seems models often underdo the CAA initially which I'm thinking will allow them to get below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 6, 2017 Author Share Posted December 6, 2017 Not sure why they took away two hundredths from the precip. today. That hurt me a little but overall a very good day with wind coming in at 27 kts and the low looking like it will get below freezing. For tomorrow: 41/28/24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 6, 2017 Author Share Posted December 6, 2017 I can tell everyone is studying for exams. Looks like they ran out of CAA. Maybe they will be stuck at 32F til after 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 33/22/19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 7, 2017 Author Share Posted December 7, 2017 34/22/18 Really went crazy figuring out the high. I initially had 32 so we'll see if I get burned. I just saw they got to 42 today even with a lot of clouds around. With 925s 4-5C cooler tomorrow I figured they should get in the 33-35 range. Looked like some good CAA tomorrow night so took the under on the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 33/23/19. That strip of clear skies right over CLE is the most annoying thing ever because it'll hit like 35 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Despite the 5 minute obs never getting above 1C, they somehow hit 35. Unfortunately, the person ahead of my for first went 35. It'll come down to day 8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 Bumping this for the fun first week in Austin. It sure likes to decouple there when conditions are right. The number of people who got the low correct was 1, 2, and zero over the first three days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.