H2Otown_WX Posted November 7, 2017 Author Share Posted November 7, 2017 53/35/16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveSN+ Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 54/37/14 Always hard to forecast the first day for a city and climate that I know literally nothing about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 I guess this place finally won out I think i remember seeing this on last years list of flex city's good luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 12 minutes ago, LoveSN+ said: 54/37/14 Always hard to forecast the first day for a city and climate that I know literally nothing about. 53/34/16/0 "City" is a bit of a stretch for Quillayute...it's in the middle of nowhere surrounded by trees and vampires. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 55/31/15/0.01'' We'll see about cloud cover but I felt like they remain mostly clear and they would drop like a rock tonight. Decided to throw in a 0.01'' in case some shower made it in. High was tough but they were able to crack 50 today and seemed like that happened mixing to around 4000'. Did the same for tomorrow and yielded mid-50's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 53/32/19/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 Down to 34 already! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveSN+ Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 There goes a blown low the first day. Nothing showed it dropping that fast. Can tell this city is going to be a rough one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 Damn it...can’t they believe they dropped like a rock to 34 but bottomed out there. 31 fail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 2 hours ago, weatherwiz said: Damn it...can’t they believe they dropped like a rock to 34 but bottomed out there. 31 fail Bottomed out at 33 but yea that was quite the tumble east wind little to no clouds around areas around seattle had snow this weekend. So im sure Olympic Park got something sure that helped play a role in the cooling given location near water as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 The Univ of Washington 4/3 km WRF was a tad too cold but it nailed the drop prior to 06Z and subsequent increase. Here's the bufkit link: http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/bufkit_wrfgfsd4/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 2 hours ago, so_whats_happening said: Bottomed out at 33 but yea that was quite the tumble east wind little to no clouds around areas around seattle had snow this weekend. So im sure Olympic Park got something sure that helped play a role in the cooling given location near water as well. I’ll take the 33. I wasn’t too shocked they tumbled...didn’t really see clouds working in and I think they tumbled the night before as well and conditions were rather similar. Hoping they’ll work into the lower 50’s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 10 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I’ll take the 33. I wasn’t too shocked they tumbled...didn’t really see clouds working in and I think they tumbled the night before as well and conditions were rather similar. Hoping they’ll work into the lower 50’s They should get to about 52/53 wouldnt be surprised to see higher but it depends on those clouds rolling in from the system tomorrow should definitely be a challenge to forecast rain amounts not really sure how they do out here. I remember seattle but that was a crazy time and well not a fun city for forecasting rain totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 7 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said: They should get to about 52/53 wouldnt be surprised to see higher but it depends on those clouds rolling in from the system tomorrow should definitely be a challenge to forecast rain amounts not really sure how they do out here. I remember seattle but that was a crazy time and well not a fun city for forecasting rain totals. Yeah the rainfall totals are going to be a giant pain. Not looking forward to that at all. I haven’t done well in his aspect at all dating back to last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 3 hours ago, weatherwiz said: Yeah the rainfall totals are going to be a giant pain. Not looking forward to that at all. I haven’t done well in his aspect at all dating back to last year. Ha well it didnt get as warm as expected might squeek to 51 in the intra hour but highly doubt we see much above 50 as the final. Shame its an auto station cant really tell whats going on above 12K which could clue many in at times. Oh well looks to not be a boring city though over the next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 8, 2017 Share Posted November 8, 2017 2 hours ago, so_whats_happening said: Ha well it didnt get as warm as expected might squeek to 51 in the intra hour but highly doubt we see much above 50 as the final. Shame its an auto station cant really tell whats going on above 12K which could clue many in at times. Oh well looks to not be a boring city though over the next week. that sucks its an auto station. If this first day is any sign this is indeed going to be a challenge. The quick falling of temps last night then quickly leveling off and much of the same today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted November 8, 2017 Author Share Posted November 8, 2017 Man, what a disaster Day 1 was. They had hardly any wind I think that was most surprising to me given the profiles I looked at. Maybe it's topography thing that I'm not seeing...anyway, for tomorrow, just used the USL since I work 11-7 and never got around to making a forecast before work. 49/44/13/0.33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted November 8, 2017 Share Posted November 8, 2017 14 hours ago, H2Otown_WX said: Man, what a disaster Day 1 was. They had hardly any wind I think that was most surprising to me given the profiles I looked at. Maybe it's topography thing that I'm not seeing...anyway, for tomorrow, just used the USL since I work 11-7 and never got around to making a forecast before work. 49/44/13/0.33 It really was what got me was the winds hardly anything lol even as we progress through today they should have atleast been going by now. That rainfall though looks pretty decent and know for a fact they do rain out in that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted November 8, 2017 Share Posted November 8, 2017 I was surprised at the lack of wind also as well as the bust on the high temperature. Probably the fault of the clouds. I think the temperature behavior at night is because of how damp it is out there. Once the temp drops near the dew point there is dew formation everywhere and it can't get any lower. 51/42/15/0.32 for today. Looks like I hit the low and hopefully it will get to the 50s after the warm front passage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 50/43/12/0.30 My forecast is also the consensus so I'm not going anywhere relatively to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted November 9, 2017 Author Share Posted November 9, 2017 50/45/16/0.42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 49/42/17/0.55 Just randomly shot up to 51-52...hopefully it doesn't do that tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 52 high dropped to probably 43 an hour later definitely a weird city precip amounts dont look to amount to a whole lot either today thankfully I dont have to normally predict for the pac nw seems more challenging then not especially through the winter time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted November 14, 2017 Share Posted November 14, 2017 52/46/20/0.95" Tomorrow will be a wild one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted November 14, 2017 Share Posted November 14, 2017 .31" per metars so far 6z-12z have 0.05 and 12z-18z 0.26 Gonna be interesting to see how much they end up getting because the heaviest bands have been consistent just to their south. Wouldnt be surprised if they get at least to an inch by days end. Hit 50 as well per the high frequency obs. Also should see winds average around the 20knots area not as strong as yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 Getting close to 2" today. The nearby SNOTEL in the mountains has picked up over 25" of snow in the past day and a half. 51/43/18/0.58 for tomorrow. It didn't look like there would be much postfrontal precipitation tomorrow but I'm going to get burned by 08 UTC if the current radar trends hold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 3 hours ago, wi_fl_wx said: Getting close to 2" today. The nearby SNOTEL in the mountains has picked up over 25" of snow in the past day and a half. 51/43/18/0.58 for tomorrow. It didn't look like there would be much postfrontal precipitation tomorrow but I'm going to get burned by 08 UTC if the current radar trends hold. That is some crazy rain totals up there would love to see that snow right about now. Thats gonna be a close one 3km showing some nice band structures coming through not sure how it deals with nw convective atmosphere but that firehose south of them will surely whiten up those mountains hopefully it can spread the love down far into cali. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted November 16, 2017 Share Posted November 16, 2017 On 11/15/2017 at 0:13 AM, so_whats_happening said: That is some crazy rain totals up there would love to see that snow right about now. Thats gonna be a close one 3km showing some nice band structures coming through not sure how it deals with nw convective atmosphere but that firehose south of them will surely whiten up those mountains hopefully it can spread the love down far into cali. https://www.nwrfc.noaa.gov/snow/snowplot.cgi?BKHW1 Looks like the SWE went up by a foot in the last 3 days...snow depth increased by 57 inches!!! As for Quillayute itself...drop city for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted November 16, 2017 Share Posted November 16, 2017 1 hour ago, wi_fl_wx said: https://www.nwrfc.noaa.gov/snow/snowplot.cgi?BKHW1 Looks like the SWE went up by a foot in the last 3 days...snow depth increased by 57 inches!!! As for Quillayute itself...drop city for me Wow, that's crazy! Drop city for me too. I was 4 hours from landing onto top 10 during Day 5 :\ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 17 hours ago, wi_fl_wx said: https://www.nwrfc.noaa.gov/snow/snowplot.cgi?BKHW1 Looks like the SWE went up by a foot in the last 3 days...snow depth increased by 57 inches!!! As for Quillayute itself...drop city for me Thats awesome and then they got 1.1" of rain lol Hey if you would have doubled your forecast it would have been just about perfect. Yea this is a drop for a lot of people from my old school. That rain really did them in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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