wi_fl_wx Posted October 17, 2017 Share Posted October 17, 2017 64/45/12 for today I originally had 43 but bumped up to 45 when it was having trouble dropping yesterday evening. Seems like 64 might be tough to get today. Tonight is another one where I would normally go below MOS but now I'm hesitating... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted October 18, 2017 Author Share Posted October 18, 2017 71/44/10 It looked like 925 temps would be about 3.5C warmer than today so decided to go a little above guidance. I can see them getting to the low 40s if the winds stay calm but went a bit warmer as it seems there might be a bit of a marine influence at this station. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted October 18, 2017 Share Posted October 18, 2017 Similar forecast and reasoning for me...71/44/11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted October 18, 2017 Share Posted October 18, 2017 70/45/10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted October 19, 2017 Author Share Posted October 19, 2017 74/50/13 Probably a little too aggressive on the wind but with a stronger gradient than today decided to take the gamble. Temp-wise, looked somewhat warmer than today even though NAM BUFKIT showed a bit more of an inversion tomorrow afternoon. Used 935 mb as a comparison and it looked like they'd be about 1.5-2C warmer tomorrow. Wasn't too confident about the low. It seems there'll be fairly potent winds just off the deck so if they're able to mix I could see them struggling to drop much below 55F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted October 19, 2017 Share Posted October 19, 2017 74/49/13/0 Going down to 47 with the USL was tempting, but if DCA didn't go below guidance last night, it certainly won't tonight. That little patch of clouds was a concern as well. I'll be shocked if the high is anything other than 73 or 74 tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted October 19, 2017 Author Share Posted October 19, 2017 1 hour ago, wi_fl_wx said: 74/49/13/0 Going down to 47 with the USL was tempting, but if DCA didn't go below guidance last night, it certainly won't tonight. That little patch of clouds was a concern as well. I'll be shocked if the high is anything other than 73 or 74 tomorrow. You and I have been on the same page this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted October 19, 2017 Share Posted October 19, 2017 74/49/11/0 Trying to finish DCA in the top 10 nationally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted October 19, 2017 Share Posted October 19, 2017 15 hours ago, H2Otown_WX said: You and I have been on the same page this week. Yep! It seems to be working out! Our team is all voting for Quillayute so hopefully that will be the next city. Looks boring everywhere else in the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted October 20, 2017 Author Share Posted October 20, 2017 7 hours ago, wi_fl_wx said: Yep! It seems to be working out! Our team is all voting for Quillayute so hopefully that will be the next city. Looks boring everywhere else in the country. The high didn't quite work out today. It didn't occur to me that a south wind would give a cooling influence with the Potomac adjacent to them. Is that in Washington? I voted for Idaho since I like the mountain west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted October 20, 2017 Author Share Posted October 20, 2017 75/53/12 Tried to change my high to 78 at the last second but was too late. I realized that their 925 mb temps. are progged to be around 14-15C and without a south wind they should get into the upper 70s I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted October 20, 2017 Share Posted October 20, 2017 74/55/11/0. The day is clearly torching so far. 19 hours ago, wi_fl_wx said: Yep! It seems to be working out! Our team is all voting for Quillayute so hopefully that will be the next city. Looks boring everywhere else in the country. I voted Amarillo because I stayed there for couple nights this past May. Plus, I'm not so fond of Washington after doing poorly in Seattle last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted October 20, 2017 Share Posted October 20, 2017 I completely missed the wind direction shift today. Oh well. On to Salt Lake City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted October 25, 2017 Author Share Posted October 25, 2017 67/37/11 Concerned to see some good forecasters with highs in the low 70s. MOS would agree I guess. I can't figure out highs here because BUFKIT is clueless about mixing heights. Guess I should check the GFS instead of the NAM. Also, took a shot on the low in hopes the winds don't pan out. I couldn't see a synoptic reason why they'll have more wind tonight than last night but I don't understand mesoscale crap about this city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveSN+ Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 I wish this city didn't get voted for. Looks mighty boring, most people right around consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 6 minutes ago, LoveSN+ said: I wish this city didn't get voted for. Looks mighty boring, most people right around consensus. Same here... First day was a disaster. Had 65/41/7, but yesterday didn't get as warm as it could've been. Going with 67/42/11, but I'm not feeling confident. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveSN+ Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 Went 69/42/10, but saw the low was 41 at least. Something in the northern plains would have been a lot more fun for this period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 next please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 62/39/11 for today Originally was thinking colder but for the low I'm glad I threw out the USL and went with what's been working lately. Might be tough to crack 62 today but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 I went 57/37/13/0 for day 5. I haven't gotten a great feel for this place yet and am hoping to just stay better than consensus this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 57/37/12 I've just been playing bias-corrected numbers with a few tweaks depending on what the winds are doing. Looks like tomorrow's forecast might be a little more interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted October 31, 2017 Author Share Posted October 31, 2017 56/37/11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted November 1, 2017 Share Posted November 1, 2017 69/44/19/0Tricky low tonight but it looks like there is enough of a breeze to keep the temp in the mid-40s, especially after 06Z. Hopefully I don't bust on this one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 1, 2017 Share Posted November 1, 2017 Decided to go for it tomorrow with deeper mixing and models suggesting 7-8C warmer than today. 71/43/20/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted November 1, 2017 Author Share Posted November 1, 2017 67/42/19 Hmm, I didn't see 7-8C warmer...maybe I missed that? I used I think 740 mb as a comparison height and it seemed it would be about 4.5C warmer than today hence the 10F warmer on the high. Of course, if they mix much more deeply (which they very well may) then all bets are off. For the low, hoping the LLJ that is depicted can start cranking soon. Also decided to go high on the winds with that feature present during the day tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 1, 2017 Share Posted November 1, 2017 14 hours ago, H2Otown_WX said: 67/42/19 Hmm, I didn't see 7-8C warmer...maybe I missed that? I used I think 740 mb as a comparison height and it seemed it would be about 4.5C warmer than today hence the 10F warmer on the high. Of course, if they mix much more deeply (which they very well may) then all bets are off. For the low, hoping the LLJ that is depicted can start cranking soon. Also decided to go high on the winds with that feature present during the day tomorrow. I used potential temperature in the boundary layer to get that. I think I went a bit too high but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted November 1, 2017 Author Share Posted November 1, 2017 3 hours ago, OHweather said: I used potential temperature in the boundary layer to get that. I think I went a bit too high but we'll see. 70F now. Nice job! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted November 2, 2017 Share Posted November 2, 2017 Somehow it didn't get to 70, only 69. The 5-min obs seem to get corrected about 10 minutes after the fact. 69/48/21/0 for tomorrow. Not confident in any of those numbers. The winds looked unimpressive until about 09Z so I think they bottom out early again. Satellite also suggests clearing at least for the first half of the night. Not sure if that strong LLJ is going to mix down tomorrow evening or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted November 3, 2017 Share Posted November 3, 2017 67/52/29/0 Looks like I have the highest wind forecast in the country...haha. Might have gone overboard but I'll probably get a trophy if it verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted November 3, 2017 Author Share Posted November 3, 2017 67/55/24 Decided to get risky in all three parameters since Im a bit over consensus so there isn't anything to lose. Went over USL on the high. They seemed to mix out to around 600 mb today and if they could achieve that tomorrow with temps. at that level being 2C cooler it should yield something in the 67-68 range. Of course, if the clouds are as thick as the USL suggests then they will be stuck in the low to mid 60s. I thought the low was interesting. With such a strong jet just off the deck I felt there's a good chance they won't get under 55 tonight but I think they could before 06z tomorrow if the winds die out enough. I underdid the winds a bit today and the profile looked similar if not windier tomorrow hence the aggressive wind forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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