October 2017 temperature forecast contest

[Roger Smith]

Whoa, what happened to those negative anomalies in September? Anyway, time to prognosticate October ... the usual challenge, to predict F deg temperature anomalies (relative to 1981-2010) for ...

DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ________ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

Deadline for forecasts 06z October 1st, with penalties set at 1% every 2 hours until 18z Monday 2nd then increasing to 1% per hour.

Good luck to all !

 

 

[SnoSki14]

DCA +8.5

NYC +8.0

BOS +6.5

 ORD +3.0

 ATL +3.0

 IAH +1.0

 DEN +0.5

 PHX -0.5

 SEA -2.5

[Roger Smith]

I'll take half-strength 1963 reruns for $200, Alex ...

+3.6 for all nine of them ... if I get more inspired, I will edit the different numbers that are just about +3.6 into the table.

RJay, if you read this, and the thread's not pinned yet, could you pin it? Thanks 

[Tom]

DCA +2.1

NYC +1.6

BOS +1.6

 ORD +2.5

 ATL +1.9

 IAH +1.2

 DEN +0.8

 PHX +0.2

 SEA -1.2

[hudsonvalley21]

DCA +2.9

NYC +3.1

BOS +2.9

 ORD +2.2

 ATL +1.5

 IAH +0.8

 DEN +2.5

 PHX +2.1

 SEA +1.8

[rainsucks]

DCA: +5.0

NYC: +4.7

BOS: +3.5

ORD: +6.8

ATL: +2.3

IAH: +1.5

DEN: +1.0

PHX: +1.5

SEA: -1.0

[Rjay]

DCA +3.0

NYC +3.0

BOS +3.0

 ORD +3.0

 ATL +1.8

 IAH +1.0

 DEN 0.0

 PHX +1.8

 SEA +1.5

[wxallannj]

DCA +3.4

NYC +3.2

BOS +3.4

 ORD +2.7

 ATL +2.4

 IAH +1.6

 DEN +0.5

 PHX +0.8

 SEA -1.1   

[bkviking]

DCA +3.8

NYC +3.8

BOS +3.4

 ORD +4.0

 ATL +2.7

 IAH +1.2

 DEN +1.8

 PHX +1.7

 SEA +0.8

 

[dmillz25]

DCA +3.5

NYC +3.5

BOS +2.5

 ORD +3.0

 ATL +1.5

 IAH +1.5

 DEN +1.5

 PHX +1.0

 SEA -1.0

[wxdude64]

DCA:  +1.0

NYC:  +1.4

BOS:  +2.1

ORD:  +0.9

ATL:  +1.1

IAH:  +0.6

DEN:  -0.7

PHX:  +1.1

SEA:  -1.9

[RodneyS]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ________ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

1.8     2.9     3.4          5.5     1.0     3.7                -1.4     2.4     1.8   

[Scotty Lightning]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ________ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

1.0     1.0     0.5          0.0     1.0    1.0                 -0.5      1.0    -1.0

[so_whats_happening]

DCA = ++2.8

NYC =++2.5

BOS = ++3.0

ORD = ++2.5

ATL = ++1.7

IAH = ++1.5

DEN = ++2.1

PHX = ++1.4

SEA = ++1.6

[donsutherland1]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ________ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

1.6     1.6     1.3          2.2     0.4    -0.6                -1.4      0.5    -0.4

[Neckbeard93]

DCA: 2.8

NYC: 3.1

BOS: 3.3

ORD: 4.4

ATL: 1.7

IAH: 1.2

DEN: --0.6

PHX: 0.8

SEA: --1.3

 

 

[H2Otown_WX]

Sorry this is late;

DCA...NYC...BOS     ATL...ORD...IAH       SEA...DEN...PHX

+2.1...+1.9..+1.2    +2.2...+1.7...+1.8    -0.5...-0.7...+0.4

[Damage In Tolland]

I forgot. We need reminders

DCA: 3.1

NYC: 2.8

BOS: 2.8

ORD: 3.1

ATL: 2.5

IAH: 1.8

DEN: +0.5

PHX: 1.8

SEA: -1.7

[Roger Smith]

Table of forecasts for October 2017

 

FORECASTER ____________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ____ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ______DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

SnoSki14_______________ +8.5 _ +8.0 _+6.5 ___ +3.0 _ +3.0 _ +1.0 ___ +0.5 _ --0.5 _ --2.5

rainsucks _______________+5.0 _ +4.7 _ +3.5 ___ +6.8 _ +2.3 _ +1.5 ___ +1.0 _ +1.5 _ --1.0

BKViking _______________ +3.8 _ +3.8 _ +3.4 ___ +4.0 _ +2.7 _ +1.2 ___ +1.8 _ +1.7 _ +0.8

Roger Smith ____________ +3.6 _ +3.6 _ +3.6 ___ +3.6 _ +3.6 _ +3.6 ___ +3.6 _ +3.6 _ +3.6

dmillz25 _______________ +3.5 _ +3.5 _ +2.5 ___ +3.0 _ +1.5 _ +1.5 ___ +1.5 _ +1.0 _ --1.0

wxallannj _______________+3.4 _ +3.2 _ +3.4 ___ +2.7 _ +2.4 _ +1.6 ___ +0.5 _ +0.8 _ --1.1   

Damage in Tolland_(-15%)_+3.1 _ +2.8 _ +2.8 ___ +3.1 _ +2.5 _ +1.8 ___ +0.5 _ +1.8 _ --1.7

RJay __________________ +3.0 _ +3.0 _ +3.0 ___ +3.0 _ +1.8 _ +1.0 _____0.0 _ +1.8 _ +1.5

hudsonvalley21 __________+2.9 _ +3.1 _ +2.9 ___ +2.2 _ +1.5 _ +0.8 ___ +2.5 _ +2.1 _ +1.8

Neckbeard93 ____________+2.8 _ +3.1 _ +3.3 ___ +4.4 _ +1.7 _ +1.2 ___ --0.6 _ +0.8 _ --1.3

 

Consensus __________+2.8 _+2.9 _+2.9 ___+2.7 _+1.7 _+1.2 ___+0.5 _+1.1 _--0.5

 

so_whats_happening _____ +2.8 _ +2.5 _ +3.0 ___ +2.5 _ +1.7 _ +1.5 ___ +2.1 _ +1.4 _ +1.6

H20town_wx __ (-10%) ___+2.1 _ +1.9 _ +1.2 ___ +1.7 _ +2.2 _ +1.8 ___ --0.7 _ +0.4 _ --0.5 

Tom ___________________+2.1 _ +1.6 _ +1.6 ___ +2.5 _ +1.9 _ +1.2 ___ +0.8 _ +0.2 _ --1.2

RodneyS _______________ +1.8 _ +2.9 _ +3.4 ___ +5.5 _ +1.0 _ +3.7 ___ --1.4 _ +2.4 _ +1.8

DonSutherland.1 _________ +1.6 _ +1.6 _ +1.3 ___ +2.2 _ +0.4 _ --0.6 ___ --1.4 _ +0.5 _ --0.4

wxdude64 ______________ +1.0 _ +1.4 _ +2.1 ___ +0.9 _ +1.1 _ +0.6 ___ --0.7 _ +1.1 _ --1.9

SD ____________________ +1.0 _ +1.0 _ +0.5 _____0.0 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 ___ --0.5 _ +1.0 _ --1.0

 

Normal ___________________0.0 __0.0 __0.0 _____0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 _____ 0.0 __ 0.0__ 0.0

 

... Consensus values are 8th ranked of the 15 regular entrants in the contest, basically from BKViking down to SD, Normal and the two newbies at the top of the table are not part of that calculation. Table is arranged by DCA forecasts so the others just fall where they may, NYC is used to arrange equal DCA, then BOS etc.

... color codes, red for warmest of regular forecasters, blue for coldest, anything more extreme from later entrants is underlined ... Normal is coldest where bold type used (tied ORD and coldest among regular forecasters PHX).

... Welcome to SnoSki14, rainsucks (second month now), and good luck everyone.

 

 

 

 

[Roger Smith]

_____________________ DCA _NYC _BOS ___ ORD _ATL _IAH ____ DEN _PHX _SEA

________ (8 d) _______ +5.8_+7.9_+6.9 ___+10.3_+4.4_+4.9 ___ --0.9_+1.3_--0.2

_______ (15 d) _______ +7.8_+8.5_+7.3 ___ +9.0_+7.6_+5.4 ___ --3.4_ +1.7_--1.9

_______ (20 d) _______ +6.3_+7.2_+6.9 ___ +8.6_+5.6_+3.6 ___ --0.2_ +3.1_--1.3

_______ (24 d) _______ +6.7_+8.2_+7.6 ___ +8.3_+5.0_+2.9 ___ --0.3_+3.3_--0.4

_______ (27 d) _______ +6.0_+7.6_+7.6 ___ +7.0_+4.0_+1.9 ___ --0.7_+3.7_+0.1

_______ (28 d) _______ +6.1_+7.6_+7.5 ___ +6.4_+3.7_+1.2 ___ --0.6_+3.8_+0.3

_______ (29 d) _______ +6.0_+7.7_+7.6 ___ +5.9_+2.8_+0.7 ___ --0.2_+3.9_+0.3

_______ (30 d) _______ +5.7_+7.5_+7.6 ___ +5.5_+2.4_+0.5 ___ --0.7_+3.8_+0.5

______ (p 31 d) ______+5.4_+7.2_+7.4___+5.1_+2.4_+0.5__--0.8_+3.8_+0.4

 

Nov 1 _ 20z _ Final anomalies have now been posted in the table,  DEN was a bit late to appear. The scoring tables will be updated soon and the word provisional will be replaced by final when that's finished.

[Roger Smith]

Final scoring for October 2017

High scores among regular entrants in red, higher scores for either of the new entrants in italics (if they both surpass the regular high score they both get an additional high score) -- both types are included in the high score counts in annual tables (next post).

 

FORECASTER __________ DCA_NYC_BOS___east___ORD_ATL_IAH___cent___ TOTAL

 

SnoSki14_______________ 42 _ 92 _ 91___ 225 ___ 59 _ 88 _ 90 ___ 237 ____ 462

rainsucks ______________ 96 _ 72 _ 46 ___ 214 ___ 63 _ 98 _ 80 ___ 241 ____ 455 

BKViking _______________ 72 _ 54 _ 44 ___ 170 ___ 79 _ 94 _ 86___ 259 ____ 429 

Neckbeard93 ____________52 _ 40 _ 42 ___ 134 ___ 87 _ 86 _ 86___ 259 ____ 393 

wxallannj _______________64 _ 42 _ 44 ___ 150 ___ 53 _100 _78 ___ 231 ____ 381 

RJay __________________ 56 _ 38 _ 36 ___ 130 ___ 59 _ 88 _ 90 ___ 237 ____ 367 

dmillz25 _______________ 66 _ 48 _ 26 ___ 140 ___ 59 _ 82 _ 80 ___ 221 ____ 361 

Roger Smith ____________ 68 _ 50 _ 48 ___ 166 ___ 71 _ 76 _ 38 ___ 185 ____ 351 

hudsonvalley21 __________54 _ 40 _ 34 ___ 128 ___ 43 _ 82 _ 94 ___ 219 ____ 347

 

Consensus __________ 52 _36 _34 ___ 122 ___53 _86 _86___225 ___347

 

so_whats_happening _____ 52 _ 28 _ 36 ___ 116 ___ 49 _ 86 _ 80 ___ 215 ____ 331  

RodneyS _______________ 32 _ 36 _ 44 ___ 112 ___ 93 _ 72 _ 36 ___ 201 ____ 313

Damage in Tolland _______ 58 _ 34 _ 32 ___ 124 ___ 61 _ 98 _ 74 ___ 233 _ 357

___________ (-15%) _____49 _ 29 _ 27 ___ 105 ___ 52 _ 83 _ 63 ___ 198 ____ 303

Tom ___________________38 _ 16 _ 16 ___ 070 ___ 49 _ 90 _ 86 ___ 225 ____ 295

H20town_wx ____________38 _ 19 _ 12 ___ 069 ___ 33 _ 96 _ 74 ___ 203 _ 272

__________ (-10%) ______34 _ 17 _ 11 ___ 062 ___ 30 _ 86 _ 67 ___ 183 ____ 245  

wxdude64 ______________16 _ 14 _ 21 ___ 051 ___ 17 _ 74 _ 98 ___ 189 ____ 240

DonSutherland.1 _________28 _ 16 _ 13 ___ 057 ___ 43 _ 60 _ 78 ___ 181 ____ 238

SD ____________________16 _ 10 _ 05 ___ 031 ___ 00 _ 72 _ 90 ___ 162 ____ 193

 

Normal ________________ 00 _ 00 _ 00 ___ 000 ___ 00 _ 52 _ 90 ___ 142 ____ 142

 

Final scoring for western and for all nine contests October 2017

 

FORECASTER __________ DEN_PHX_SEA____TOTAL______All nine (= rank)

 

RodneyS _______________ 88 _ 72 _ 72 ____232 ________ 545 ( = 7 )

RJay __________________ 84 _ 60 _ 78 ____ 222 ________ 589 ( = 3 )

DonSutherland.1 _________88 _ 34 _ 84 ____ 206 ________ 444 ( =14)

SD ____________________94 _ 44 _ 72 ____ 210 ________ 403 ( =17)

Neckbeard93 ____________96 _ 40 _ 66 ____ 202 ________ 595 ( = 4 )

 

Consensus __________ 74 _46 _82 ____ 202 _______549 ( = 7 )

Normal _________________84 _ 24 _ 92 ____ 200 ________ 342 ( =18)

 

BKViking _______________ 48 _ 58 _ 92 ____ 198 _______ 627 ( = 2 )

wxdude64 ______________98 _ 46 _ 54 ____ 198 ________ 438 ( =15)

H20town_wx ____________98 _ 32 _ 82 _ 212

__________ (-10%) ______88 _ 29 _ 74 ____ 191 ________ 436 ( =16)

rainsucks _______________64 _ 54 _ 72 ____ 190 ________ 645 ( = 1 )

wxallannj _______________74 _ 40 _ 70 ____ 184 ________ 565  ( = 6 ) 

so_whats_happening _____ 46 _ 52 _ 76 ____ 174 ________ 501 ( =10)

hudsonvalley21 __________34 _ 66 _ 72 ____ 172 ________ 519 ( = 9 )

dmillz25 _______________ 54 _ 44 _ 72 ____ 170 ________ 531 ( = 8 )

Tom ___________________68 _ 28 _ 68 ____ 164 ________ 459 ( =13)

Damage in Tolland_______  74 _ 60 _ 58 _ 192

___________ (-15%) _____63 _ 51 _ 49 ____ 163 ________ 466 ( =12)

Roger Smith ____________ 12 _ 96 _ 36 ____ 144 ________ 495 ( = 11)

SnoSki14_______________ 74 _ 14 _ 42 ____ 130 ________ 592 ( = 5 )

 

 

[Roger Smith]

<<< ---=--- 2017 Annual Scoring Summary (January-October) ---=--- >>>

... ... ... ... ... ... ... (see post 21 above for final October scoring) ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Best scores: The first six numbers refer to the six locations, the last two refer to eastern and central division totals. Months won (in this part of the contest) are shown by name after the number codes. There are sometimes ties so the totals may add up higher than the number of months. Best total scores January-October are highlighted in red in the table for six locations, and in bold italic for two groups and for all six. Also, best scores are awarded both within the group of regular entrants and the larger total field; this explains some double entries again this month.

 

FORECASTER _________DCA_NYC_BOS__east____ORD_ATL_IAH___cent___TOTAL__Best scores, months

 

 1 RJay _____________ 514 _537 _508 __1559___506 _706_717__1929__ 3488_122.311.2.3_Feb, Apr 

 2 DonSutherland.1 ____533 _490 _465 __1488___537 _686 _711__1934___3422 _001.122.1.3_Jan, May  

 3 BKViking __________ 532 _494 _514 __1540___513 _673 _588 __1774___3314 _110.001.1.1_Oct

 4 wxallannj __________553 _484 _530__1567___426 _637 _640 __1703___3270 __002.022..1.0 _Jun

 

 5 Consensus _________500 _464 _457 __1421 ___489 _677 _671 __1837___3258 __010.000

 
 5 hudsonvalley21______481 _443 _448 __1372 ___475 _650 _625__1750___3122 __000.010 

 6 dmillz25 __________ 556 _467 _458 __1481 ___461 _570 _588__1619___3100 __100.101

 7 SD _______________ 506 _477 _460 __1443 ___464 _583 _568__1615___3058 _ 121200.1.0 _ Sep

 8 Tom ______________511 _427 _421 __1359 ___417 _624 _631__1672___3031 __000.111

 9 RodneyS __________ 452 _412 _384 __1248 ___532 _567 _673__1772___3020 __011.300..0..1 _ Mar 

10 wxdude64 _________468 _417 _454 __1339 ___409 _583 _586__1578___2917 __120.001..1.0

 

11 Normal ____________474 _463 _456 __1393 ___411 _520 _592__1523 ___2916 __101.001.0.0 __ May

 

11 Stebo $____________450 _461 _423 __1334 ___389 _534 _545 __1468___2802 __011.102.1.0 __ Jul 

12 Roger Smith _______ 476 _445 _336 __1257 ___407 _556 _579__1542___2799 __101.001.0.0_Aug

13 Neckbeard93*______ 368 _384 _337 __1089 ___521 _556 _554__1631___2720 __111.000.1.0

14 so_whats_happening#461_355 _386 __1202 ___381 _548 _523 __1452___2654__200.110 .0.1

15 Damage in Tolland __ 402 _364 _353 __1119 ___442 _538 _540__1520___2639 __000.010..0.0

16 H2Otown_WX~~____ 352 _317 _325 __ 994___ 232 _431 _412__1075___2069 __110.001..1.0

17 blazess556~________303 _303 _322 __ 928 ___ 322 _303 _293__ 918___ 1846 __001.000

18 rainsucks // ________ 166 _172 _138 __ 476 ___ 150 _184 _170 __ 504___ 980 __121.100.1.1_Sep,Oct

19 CCM %%__________ 136 _106 _156 __ 398 ___ 146 _134 _126 __ 406____ 804 __000.100..0.1

20 Prestige Worldwide^ _111 _107 _123 __ 341 ____25 _140 _118 __ 283____ 624 __110.010 

21 Maxim^____________ 80 __ 85 __78 __ 243 ____50 _150 _142 __ 342____ 585 __100.001

22 snoski14 !! _________ 42 __ 92 __ 91 __ 225 ____59 _ 88 __90 __ 237____ 462 __011.000.1.0_ Oct

23 JBG % _____________88 __ 64 __32 __ 184 ____ 72 _ 60 __ 88 __ 220____ 404

24 IntenseBlizzard 2014/_ 62 __ 48 __58 __ 168 ____ 32 _ 64 __ 96 __ 192____ 360

________________________________________________________________________________

 

Updated annual scoring for western and all nine contests January - October 2017

 

FORECASTER _________DEN_PHX_SEA___TOTAL___Best scores___All nine ( = rank )__Months 

 1 Rjay _______________ 670 _676 _803___2149 __ 2 0 2 _ Jan,Jul__ 5637 ( = 1) __ FEB, APR,JUL

 

 2 Consensus ___________681 _655 _782 ___2118 __ 2 0 0 _________ 5376 ( = 3)

 

 2 RodneyS ____________676 _715 _684 ___ 2075 __ 2 2 0 __ Oct ___ 5095 ( = 5) __ MAR

 3 DonSutherland.1 _____ 673 _653 _708 ___ 2034 __ 2 1 0 __ Aug ___ 5456 ( = 2)__JAN, MAY,AUG

 4 wxallannj ___________ 628 _661 _744 ___ 2033 __ 0 1 1 __________5303 ( = 3) __ JUN

 5 Roger Smith _________509 _657 _824 ___ 1990 __ 0 1 2__ Feb ____ 4789 (= 11) 

 6 dmillz25 ____________ 606 _575 _776 ___ 1957 __ 2 0 1 _ Apr,Sep _ 5057 ( = 6) 

 7 BKViking ____________505 _598 _838 ___ 1941 __ 0 0 1 _________ 5255 ( = 4) __ SEP, OCT

 8 wxdude64 ___________584 _626 _699 ___ 1909 __ 2 2 0 __________4825 (= 10) 

 9 so_whats_happening#_ 585 _643 _658 ___ 1886 __ 0 2 0 _ Mar,May _4540 (= 12)

10 hudsonvalley21 ______ 543 _644 _694 ___ 1881 __ 0 0 0 _________ 5003 ( = 7)

11 Tom _______________ 535 _673 _666 ___ 1874 __ 0 0 0 _________ 4905  ( = 8)

12 Damage in Tolland ____529 _572 _738 ___ 1839 __ 0 1 3 _ Jun _____4478 (= 13)

13 SD_________________ 616 _627 _582 ___ 1825 __ 0 0 0 __________4883 ( = 9)

 

14 Normal _____________ 576 _598 _590 ___ 1764 __ 0 1 0 _________ 4680 (= 12)

 

14 Neckbeard93* _______733 _491 _429 ___ 1653 __ 3 1 0 _________ 4373 (= 15) 

15 Stebo $_____________ 489 _518 _593 ___ 1604 __ 1 0 1 _________ 4406 ( =14) 

16 H20TownWx~~______ 550 _455 _561 ___ 1566 __ 0 0 1 _________ 3635 (= 16) 

17 blazess556~ ________ 324 _353 _360 ___ 1037 __ 1 0 0 _________ 2883 (= 17)

18 Prestige Worldwide^__ 159 _223 _170 ____ 552 __ 0 1 0 _________ 1176 (= 19)

19 Maxim^ ____________ 161 _133 _176 ____ 440 __ 0 0 0 _________ 1055 (= 21)

20 rainsucks // _________ 136 _150 _104 ____ 390 __ 0 1 0 _________ 1370 (= 18)__SEP,OCT

21 CCM %% ___________ 114 _ 94 _156 ____ 364 __ 0 0 0 __________1168 (= 20)

22 IntenseBlizzard 2014/ __ 98 _ 50 _ 88 _____236 __ 1 0 0 ___________ 596 (= 23) 

23 JBG % _______________76 _ 84 __48 ____ 208 __ 0 1 0 ___________ 612 (= 22)

24 snoski14 !! ___________ 74 _ 14 _ 42 ____ 130 __ 0 0 0 ___________ 592 (= 24)

 

_______________________________________________________________________

NOTES:

* one month missed (Jan). # one month missed (Apr), $ one month missed (Oct)

~~ two months missed (July, August)

~ three months missed (July, August, September)

^ three months entered (Jan, Feb, Mar)

%% two months entered (May, June) ... // two months entered (September, October)

% one month entered (July) ... / one month entered (September) ... !! one month entered (October)

 

Reports on ranking with late penalties removed

 

Jan late penalty for Blazess556 total of 2, (0,2) -- no change in rank

 March late penalty deductions:

... Rjay lost 41 (22,19), Damage lost 18 (13,5) and wxdude64 lost 14 (12,2). 

...  RJay currently 1st in the all nine, and he would remain 2nd in original six and is already first in western. _ Damage, see July _ wxdude64, see September.

April late penalty deductions:

... H2O_Town__wx lost 51 (25,26) and Neckbeard93 lost 32 (14,18).

... H2O_Town__wx see September. Neckbeard would see no change in ranks in any contest. 

May late penalty deductions:

... BKViking lost 32 (20, 12).

... BKViking would move up one spot to 3rd in original six, and no changes to western or all nine rankings. 

June late penalty deductions:

... Stebo lost 39 (24,15).

... Stebo would move up one to 13th place in the western contest, otherwise unchanged in ranks. 

July late penalty deductions:

... Damage in Tolland lost 98 (75, 23). annual total now 116 (88, 28) -- see October for ranking changes

 

September late penalty deductions:

... wxdude64 lost 11 (7,4) bringing the annual total to 25 (19,6), and H2OTown_wx lost 26 (15, 11)

... wxdude64 would move up one spot in the western contest.

... H2OTown_wx would not change ranks.

October late penalty deductions:

... Damage in Tolland lost 83 (54,29), annual total now 199 (142, 57) ... would move up one or two places in each contest

... H2O_Town_wx lost 48 (27, 21) for an annual total of 125 (67, 58). ... not enough to change ranks due to missed months

__ ranks for Consensus and Normal do not affect ranks of lower scoring forecasters.

 

Comparative scoring for Neckbeard93, so_whats_happening and Stebo

... These three regular participants missed one month each, but a different month with different ranges of scoring. Neckbeard93 missed January, so_whats_happening missed April and Stebo missed October.

... I assume for the sake of a better comparison that they scored the average of the other forecasters who participated in those months. Those averages were 365 in January (141 east and central, 224 western), 469 for April (249, 220) and 549 in October (347, 202).

Based on those numbers, the comparative totals (and improved ranks) for these three would be

Neckbeard93 ____________2861 __ 1877 ___ 4738 _____ 11th __ 10th __ 12th

so_whats_happening _____ 2903 __ 2106 ___ 5009 _____ 10th __ 2nd ___ 7th

Stebo __________________3069 __ 1806 ___ 4875 ______ 5th __ 14th ___ 8th

(these ranks compare with time penalty totals and would fall slightly if compared with raw scores before time penalties, also the ranks are noted independently as if the other two had not also moved up ... also, there's no real way of estimating what these forecasters might have scored in the two months ... the January scores east-central were very low). 

For H2OTown__wx who missed July and August, if 800 and 400 points had been scored in the two sections, ranks would be 12th, 8th and 11th.

 

•  

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 9/25/2017 at 1:34 PM, SnoSki14 said:

DCA +8.5

NYC +8.0

BOS +6.5

 ORD +3.0

 ATL +3.0

 IAH +1.0

 DEN +0.5

 PHX -0.5

 SEA -2.5

Great call.

[SnoSki14]

On 10/28/2017 at 1:53 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Great call.

Thanks, you can't go wrong with extreme warmth. 

[Roger Smith]

Extreme Forecast Update -- Oct 2017

Six out of nine forecasts qualify for an extreme forecast award as of final numbers (Nov 1st). 

An extreme forecast occurs when one of the regular (sixteen) forecasters has high score from either the most extreme forecast or the second most extreme forecast. Then, any non-regular entrants can qualify for additional extreme forecast awards if they have a higher score. A loss is defined as an extreme forecast that loses to second most extreme. In this table, a loss is not a bad outcome. A "no decision" means that a high score that would otherwise qualify is removed from consideration by a late penalty.

DCA (+5.4)  goes to BKViking (+3.8) in the regular group, and is an additional win for rainsucks (+5.0) as well as a loss for snoski14 (+8.5). 

NYC (+7.2) would also go to BKViking (+3.8) in the regular group, and counts as additional wins for snoski14 (+8.0) and rainsucks (+4.7).

BOS (+7.4) would go to Roger Smith (+3.6) in the regular group, and counts as an additional win for snoski14 (+6.5).

ORD (+5.1) goes to RodneyS (+5.5), and counts as a loss for rainsucks (+6.8). Rainsucks would qualify for an additional win for any outcome of +6.2 or higher. 

ATL (+2.4) has fallen a bit too low to qualify, since fourth highest regular forecast of +2.4 (wxallannj) is currently high score, while Damage in Tolland had +2.5 but a 15% late penalty. Two regulars had higher forecasts, there are no qualifying additional forecasts. 

IAH (+0.5) , counts as a win for wxdude64 (+0.6) since there was only one colder forecast, that from DonSutherland.1 who has --0.6. Normal also gets a loss as a result.

DEN (-0.8) on second thought does not qualify, third coldest forecasts were from wxdude (--0.7) with high score and same for H2OTown__wx (--0.7 with 10% late penalty), so no shared losses for RodneyS and DonSutherland.1 (--1.4), I realized that under the rules if they had not tied it would be more obvious that second coldest forecast did not get high score to qualify the location. 

PHX (+3.8) would go to Roger Smith (+3.6). 

SEA (+0.4) does not qualify. 

 

UPDATED TABLE OF EXTREME FORECASTS (wins and losses)

 

RJay _____________ 8-0

rainsucks __________6-1

DonSutherland1 ____ 6-3

Wxdude64 _________5-0

SD _______________4-0

Damage in Tolland __ 4-0*

so_whats_happening _4-0

Roger Smith ________4-0

Normal ___________ 4-1

Wxallannj __________4-1

Neckbeard93 _______4-2

Stebo _____________4-3

Prestige Worldwide __ 3-0

H2OTown__Wx _____ 2-0

Maxim ____________ 2-0

BKViking __________ 2-0

Dmillz25 ___________2-1

snoski14 __________ 2-1

RodneyS __________ 1-0

JBG ______________ 1-0

hudsonvalley21 _____1-0

CCM ______________1-1

____________________________________________

* no decision for DCA July 2017

** no decision for DEN Oct 2017

[Roger Smith]

All scoring has been updated from post 21 onwards. 

Congrats to our new entrants "rainsucks" and "snoski14" who generally managed to outscore most of the regulars especially when it came to the super-warm eastern states. 

Rainsucks, let me know if you've entered before under other usernames, we had another guy from IL (Maxim) who was doing quite well and disappeared after a few months. If that happens to be the case, I can merge the scores or leave it off-forum if you prefer (no big deal). 

I hope the two of you and maybe a few others will continue to join in as our contests lack one thing, namely a good number of participants, we are slowly shrinking down to about a dozen regulars (from around 20 or more several years ago). I know that late in the year, some regulars drop out because they don't think they can achieve a high finish, then they rejoin, so that's fine -- I am quite happy to organize these contests but if we could get a better turnout with some other host in charge then I would be happy to pass the torch. Worth a group discussion around end of November perhaps (in the group of regular and newly interested forecasters).