Mount Agung volcano

[LithiaWx]

This thing is about to erupt capable of a VEI 5?  This is a possible equivalent to Pinatubo?  Possible global cooling enroute?

 

https://www.google.com/amp/www.latimes.com/world/la-fg-bali-mount-agung-20170923-story,amp.html

 

please discuss I’d love to hear some opinions. 

[Windspeed]

This thing is about to erupt capable of a VEI 5?  This is a possible equivalent to Pinatubo?  Possible global cooling enroute?

 

 

 

https://www.google.com/amp/www.latimes.com/world/la-fg-bali-mount-agung-20170923-story,amp.html

 

 

 

please discuss I’d love to hear some opinions. 

 

Pinatubo reached level VEI 6 in '91. Yes, Agung could reach that. But this is a rare event. Most probable is ejection of the conduit and old dome with a VEI 3 or 4 magnitude eruption as new magma rises into the edifice. But, yes, the potential is there depending on the volume of magma. It's extremely difficult to predict VEI magnitudes.

 

[Windspeed]

[Windspeed]

[Windspeed]

Pinatubo reached level VEI 6 in '91. Yes, Agung could reach that. But this is a rare event. Most probable is ejection of the conduit and old dome with a VEI 3 or 4 magnitude eruption as new magma rises into the edifice. But, yes, the potential is there depending on the volume of magma. It's extremely difficult to predict VEI magnitudes.

I want to go back and clarify my comments. The question was could Agung erupt with the same magnitude as the VEI 6 Pinatubo eruption, and yes, it could. But when I said a VEI 3 or 4 event is more probable, in respect, I did not mean that an eruption of those magnitudes is likely to be the outcome of current precursor activity. Just way more likely than Agung's last major eruption such as the VEI 5 of '63. Current seismic activity could just as easily lead to smaller eruptive episodes or subside. The evidence of inflation, seismic activity and an increase in fumerole activity would suggest some type of eruptive acitivity could be imminent in the coming days or weeks. But that still isn't a certainty that a large eruption will occur.

 

The worry with the Bali volcanoes is their explosive eruptive history and close proximity to surrounding population. The islands have large ignimbrite deposits from caldera forming eruptions such as Bakur. But even much smaller eruptions are an extremely dangerous threat to the communities that exist there.

 

[raindancewx]

I saw a quote from some of the older people near Agung, who survived the 1963 eruption, they said essentially they think it will erupt, but not for a few months. Will be interesting to see when/if it does. It's interesting looking at the AMO values in 1963, big crash almost immediately after Agung erupted in March, but it may be a coincidence.

It has been a while for a 5 or greater eruption in the tropics (23S to 23N), last one was Pinatubo in 1991. Wikipedia has five eruptions that were VEI 5 or higher in the tropics from 1900-1999. 

The VEI scale page on Wikipedia implies the sixes are once to twice a century, fives are once every 12 years, with the fours every 18 months. Only one five since 1991 though, and it wasn't in the tropics.

[Windspeed]

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-09-25/why-do-vulcanologists-think-mt-angung-will-erupt-soon/8985862?pfmredir=sm

[griteater]

"Mount Agung in Bali is experiencing unprecedented levels of seismic activity and could erupt in a “matter of hours” if tremors continue, Indonesia’s volcanology centre has said."

"Data showed that Mount Agung experienced 844 volcanic earthquakes on Monday, and 300 to 400 earthquakes by midday on Tuesday"

"Syahbana said it was impossible to say that Agung would definitely erupt, only that the data showed there was an increasing probability that it would. “There is no volcanologist in the world who could predict precisely when a volcano will erupt,” he said. “Volcanoes are a stochastic system, many complexities are unknown by the human brain and technology.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/sep/26/bali-volcano-eruption-seismic-activity-mount-agung

[Maestrobjwa]

7 hours ago, raindancewx said:

I saw a quote from some of the older people near Agung, who survived the 1963 eruption, they said essentially they think it will erupt, but not for a few months. Will be interesting to see when/if it does. It's interesting looking at the AMO values in 1963, big crash almost immediately after Agung erupted in March, but it may be a coincidence.

It has been a while for a 5 or greater eruption in the tropics (23S to 23N), last one was Pinatubo in 1991. Wikipedia has five eruptions that were VEI 5 or higher in the tropics from 1900-1999. 

The VEI scale page on Wikipedia implies the sixes are once to twice a century, fives are once every 12 years, with the fours every 18 months. Only one five since 1991 though, and it wasn't in the tropics.

Did they give their reasoning for why they think it could be months instead of days/weeks?

[Windspeed]

New Aviation Notice:

 

Agung 20170926/1044Z

 

(1) VOLCANO OBSERVATORY NOTICE FOR AVIATION - VONA

 

(2) Issued:20170926/1044Z

 

(3) Volcano:Agung (264020)

 

(4) Current Aviation Colour Code:ORANGE

 

(5) Previous Aviation Colour Code:yellow

 

(6) Source:Agung Volcano Observatory

 

(7) Notice Number:2017AGU09

 

(8) Volcano Location:S 08 deg 20 min 31 sec E 115 deg 30 min 29 sec

 

(9) Area:Bali, Indonesia

 

(10) Summit Elevation:10054 FT (3142 M)

 

(11) Volcanic Activity Summary:Low pressure white plume, likely dominated by water vapor, is observed emitting continuously from the main crater at1027 UTC (0527 Central Indonesia Time).

 

(12) Volcanic Cloud Height:Ash cloud not visible.

 

https://magma.vsi.esdm.go.id/vona/display?noticenumber=2017AGU09

[Windspeed]

http://www.manchester.ac.uk/discover/news/expert-comment-agung-volcano-qa-with-the-universitys-chair-in-volcanology/

What is causing this current activity?

The most likely cause of this latest unrest is the injection of hot, fluid magma called basalt into a cooler more viscous magma called andesite. When the basalt cools it releases gases, which are now being observed at the summit, and leads to a pressurisation of the magma chamber, resulting is seismicity. Whether this leads to eruption or not depends on whether the pressure in the magma chamber can exceed the confining pressure, and produce a magma ascent to the surface in the form of an eruption.

When will Agung erupt, is it imminent?

No one knows if this will happen in the next few days, but it easily could, and sooner or later there will be a further eruption. The decision by the Indonesian authorities to evacuate was sensible, and it appears that the local populations have been well informed on the dangers posed by Agung.

 
What are the biggest dangers to the local population?

The main hazards are pyroclastic flows and lahars.

Pyroclastic flows have two main causes, collapse of lava accumulating in the summit area, which produces a hot rock avalanche, entraining cooler air and accelerating as it flows down the flanks of the volcano. These flows can extend for several km from the summit. The second source of pyroclastic flows is eruption column collapse, when a volcanic explosion erupts a large volume of rock into the atmosphere, which then falls back down around the summit area, producing hot rock avalanches again, but this time with greater energy.

Lahars are flows of mud and volcanic ash, which can be easily mobilised when freshly deposited ash is carried by the intense rains in the Indonesian rainy season. The most intense rains usually occur between November to March, so an eruption in the coming weeks could lead to lahars quite quickly. These mud flows are extremely hazardous as they can flow quickly and for long distances, scouring the land and damaging infrastructure, as well as posing a threat to life.

Is there likely to be a many casualties?

The probability of a large number deaths and injuries is much lower now than it was in 1963, as modern volcano monitoring techniques have improved, there is much better awareness of the hazards posed by explosive eruptions and, most importantly, local populations are better informed, with clearer communication links. Therefore, planning for a scenario similar to the 1963 eruption with pyroclastic flow run out up to 12 km from the summit is prudent, with a good probability that the actual eruption will be smaller than that.

 What are the other dangers of such an eruption?

Apart from the local impact, an explosive eruption from Agung could affect air traffic through the dispersal of ash into the atmosphere, and climate, through the injection of Sulfur dioxide (SO2) and Hydrochloric acid (HCl) into the stratosphere.

The danger posed by ash to aircraft is that the ash melts within the jet engine, and then accumulates and solidifies on a cooler rotor, eventually blocking the engine entirely. The injection of SO2 high into the atmosphere can produce climatic impacts through the generation of sulphuric acid aerosol droplets which reflect solar radiation, cooling the planet. Stratospheric injection of HCl can produce ozone depletion, but the humid conditions of Indonesia means that the bulk of erupted HCl will be rained out.

In conclusion

The current unrest on Agung may well lead to an eruption, and it will be closely monitored by the Indonesian authorities, who have already taken preventative action by evacuating local populations. This unrest is being followed attentively by many people on twitter and other internet sources, with continuous life updates, so any change in activity will be known worldwide within minutes. In case of eruption, the volcanology group at the University of Manchester will produce calculations of the emission rate of SO2 from Agung using satellite data, in order to track the evolution of the eruption.

[klw]

Posted without comment:

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-09-26/how-volcanic-eruptions-can-affect-world-temperatures-mount-agung/8987770

Quote

 

Something very interesting will happen when Bali's Mount Agung finally erupts: the Earth will become a little bit cooler.

Yep. It's not exactly what you'd expect after a volcanic eruption, which will see molten lava spewed into the air.

But don't get too excited, it will far from reverse the effects of global warming.

 

 

[Windspeed]

Posted without comment:

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-09-26/how-volcanic-eruptions-can-affect-world-temperatures-mount-agung/8987770

Something very interesting will happen when Bali's Mount Agung finally erupts: the Earth will become a little bit cooler.

Yep. It's not exactly what you'd expect after a volcanic eruption, which will see molten lava spewed into the air.

But don't get too excited, it will far from reverse the effects of global warming.

Agung's '63 eruption and venting of SO2 was shown as a possible decline in global tropical tropospheric temperatures of about -0.4° C through 2 years post-event. But that was a large eruption. We have no idea what's in store yet with regards to eruption size. This particular piece of reporting is rubbish until we actually have an eruption and observable SO2/aerosols/particulates to measure.

[raindancewx]

http://www.smh.com.au/world/balis-mount-agung-volcano-critical-with-hundreds-of-tremors-every-day-20170925-gyogjs.html

"Around 30 males still live in my village, the able-bodied, so when there is something we can evacuate immediately. Some of the old men who stayed behind said the eruption is still a long way off. They survived the 1963 eruption so they don't want to evacuate now. It's still a few months away they say."  

[Sydney Claridge]

Is there anything I could find about current upper-level wind patterns in this region, in terms of seeing where the ash might fall should (probably when) an eruption occurs?

[Ginx snewx]

another 4.2 this morning

https://infogempaa.wordpress.com/category/parameter-gempa/

 

[LithiaWx]

It sounds like everyone has evacuated the exclusion zone.   Im pulling for a big eruption, not pretending anything different.  It’s science and it would be interesting to follow the results of the climate aftermath. 

 

Photo claimed to be Mt Agung.

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.express.co.uk/news/world/859644/Bali-volcano-Agung-Mount-pictures-photos-smoke-photographs-evacuation/amp

[Windspeed]

It sounds like everyone has evacuated the exclusion zone.   Im pulling for a big eruption, not pretending anything different.  It’s science and it would be interesting to follow the results of the climate aftermath. 

 

Photo claimed to be Mt Agung.

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.express.co.uk/news/world/859644/Bali-volcano-Agung-Mount-pictures-photos-smoke-photographs-evacuation/amp

There were brush/forest fires on the slopes if Agung in 2015. There have been some day and night shots of that fire going around on twitter being posted as the eruption. Just be aware.

As of right now, low pressure steam/gas plumes are rising out of the summit crater occasionally, but so far there hasn't been any images of rising ash or an eruption.

Other than the ongoing seismic acitivity, things seem pretty tranquil. Here's a video shot from earlier (8 am local):

[Windspeed]

Speaking of video, appears a number of individuals either tourists/enthusiasts or media are on the ground there at different points outside the exclusion zone. If it erupts, we'll know it pretty quickly via social media and the seismic signal it will create. Plus, any significant ash plume will be picked up quickly by the high resolution Himawari-8 satellite.

 

We'll know in a matter of minutes if it goes boom.

[Windspeed]

Is there anything I could find about current upper-level wind patterns in this region, in terms of seeing where the ash might fall should (probably when) an eruption occurs?

 

Your best bet is to look at wind flow on the global models. Pull whatever site you use to view model runs, go to the Indo-SE Asia and Australia region. I would focus on 700 to 400 mb airflow for large ash/tephra particulates as any ash plume is going to be carried down wind at that steering layer. If the eruption is plinian and gets intense, the ash may rise into the upper troposphere and stratosphere. In that respect, focus on 200 and 100 mb layer.

 

There is currently a strong upper trough moving into western Australia. That will likely pull some ash into Australia. Lower level prevailing winds will threaten Java and points west. A very high plume, of course, will suspend aerosols into the stratosphere and that will slowly drift into an easterly flow regime in the tropics around the globe.

 

[raindancewx]

Just an interesting note but - 1932 had

1) a cat 4 hit TX, a cat 4 hit Puerto Rico, Irma hit SW FL near the area hit by the FL/AL hurricane of 1932

2) similar AMO (warm) and PDO (neutral) values

3) similar solar

4)...a VEI 6 explosion (and a five actually also says Wikipedia)

Gonna be real interesting if we get a VEI 4/5/6 given one, two, three are already similar.

[Windspeed]

Plotted seismic data under Agung since Sept. 19th:

 

[Windspeed]

And 6-hourly plots from the past few days:

[Maestrobjwa]

2 hours ago, raindancewx said:

Just an interesting note but - 1932 had

1) a cat 4 hit TX, a cat 4 hit Puerto Rico, Irma hit SW FL near the area hit by the FL/AL hurricane of 1932

2) similar AMO (warm) and PDO (neutral) values

3) similar solar

4)...a VEI 6 explosion (and a five actually also says Wikipedia)

Gonna be real interesting if we get a VEI 4/5/6 given one, two, three are already similar.

Whoa...that's kind of creepy, lol Very interesting indeed!

[winterymix]

poofing but still not blowing its top

 

 

[Ginx snewx]

8 hours ago, raindancewx said:

Just an interesting note but - 1932 had

1) a cat 4 hit TX, a cat 4 hit Puerto Rico, Irma hit SW FL near the area hit by the FL/AL hurricane of 1932

2) similar AMO (warm) and PDO (neutral) values

3) similar solar

4)...a VEI 6 explosion (and a five actually also says Wikipedia)

Gonna be real interesting if we get a VEI 4/5/6 given one, two, three are already similar.

Dude, wow and hey don't forget this little tidbit 8.1 Jalisco Mexico

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1932_Jalisco_earthquakes

 

[Bob Chill]

3 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Dude, wow and hey don't forget this little tidbit 8.1 Jalisco Mexico

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1932_Jalisco_earthquakes

 

DC snow was 150% climo in 32-33. I'm in. Kaboom.

[Maestrobjwa]

18 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

DC snow was 150% climo in 32-33. I'm in. Kaboom.

Dude this was seriously the funniest thing I've read on here all month, lol I'm with ya...as long as everybody's outta way...bring in that baking soda, boys!

Now was that year a La Niña as well?

Also...is it possible all of this rumbling could go on for days or weeks before an eruption? (Curious as to how long folks would have to stay evacuated...and what happens if this were to take a month!)

[Windspeed]

Now was that year a La Niña as well?

Also...is it possible all of this rumbling could go on for days or weeks before an eruption? (Curious as to how long folks would have to stay evacuated...and what happens if this were to take a month!)

Non-related, of course, but it wouldn't surprise me if there was a Niña in place. The '32-'33 Atlantic Hurricane seasons were epic.

As for the volcano, this is the crutch of fickle volcanic activity and trying to predict while protecting the public. The seismic signals are intense, the mountain's edifice has shown inflation and clearly degassing is quite strong with visible plumes. Yet, no way to be sure when it will go off or how large eruptive activity may be. This could go on for weeks, even months before an eruption. There's even the possibility seismic activity could subside and an eruption not take place. Granted, that is the best outcome for the people of Bali, but it is frustratingly difficult for volcanologists. You don't want complacency to drift in, have people go back to their homes, then a large eruption happen.

[goldsborosnow]

Is it possible that the longer this activity continues, the more pressure builds up leading to a bigger eruption?