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September 2017 Record Breaking Heat Wave


Hoosier

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21 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:


The more I look at it, more more I think 89.

You could very well be right.  I guess I'm leaning slightly toward hitting 90, but obviously not high confidence.  

We're dry adiabatic above 850 mb on soundings. Adding 20C to the progged 800 mb temp worked well today, and adding 20C tomorrow puts the high at/slightly over 32C, though any increase in clouds could be just enough to hold it back.  

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Four straight daily records tied or broken at CLE now with today's high of at least 93. Tomorrow's record of 89 should be easy. Tuesday's 91 a bit tougher but easily doable assuming we're mostly sunny. I can't remember a streak of 5-6 consecutive daily records being broken here anytime recently. 

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16 minutes ago, OHweather said:

Four straight daily records tied or broken at CLE now with today's high of at least 93. Tomorrow's record of 89 should be easy. Tuesday's 91 a bit tougher but easily doable assuming we're mostly sunny. I can't remember a streak of 5-6 consecutive daily records being broken here anytime recently. 

Maybe March 2012?

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Toledo (KTOL) stats and records

 

9/21 high 93, low 64,  17F above average. This ties the previous record high of 93, set in 1970.

9/22 high 92, low 67, 18F above average. Record high for this date is 93.

9/23 high 91, low 62, 16F above average Record high  for this date is 92.

9/24 high 92, low 62 (as of 5:00PM), 16F above average. This ties the previous record high 92, set in 1891

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23 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:


Was just about to mention that.

Looking back at early runs from yesterday compared to actual today, it did fairly well around here.

We'll see what the HRRR shows.

Ya know, if this 90 streak survives tomorrow, then is it possible that it can even limp through Tuesday?  Seemingly unlikely, but Tuesday is another deep mixing day with only very slight cooling aloft.  We'll have to see about tomorrow first, but if it can come in on the higher end of possibilities (say 91 or 92), then Tuesday would become intriguing.  

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MLI a degree behind yesterday at this time.  2 degrees behind here.  Upper 80s it is.

It seems a bit strange that temps are ratcheting back a degree or two per day during a heat wave.  Usually at the least temps stay as warm as the spell goes on, if not warmer.  Especially with an incoming cold front.  

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Below is an explainer graphic one of my co-workers put together. Basically a perfect confluence of factors to get such an extended and extreme stretch. This one will end up among the greats (March 2012, February 2017, October 1953), with March 2012 certainly still king (9 consecutive +25 or more departures and within that 6 straight +30 departures).

My speculation is that this pattern in the absence of antecedent flash drought and hurricane activity to further amplify the blocking ridge would have yielded an extended stretch of anomalous warmth but not daily record breaking heat in Chicago and elsewhere, with likely a few daily records being threatened. But because of these factors, it'll go down in history. Another one I'll throw in (outside of background climate trends) as a possible contributor in Chicago in terms of the magnitude of the heat each day was the extra UHI factor at ORD given additional runways built recently and just more paved space nearby even vs the mid 2000s. Interestingly enough, prior to this stretch, the only daily record high in Chicago set in the 2000s was 95° on 9/10/13.

www.weather.gov/lot/2017sept_heat36bd4166057d87bdf7b62def0689ce35.jpg

Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk


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38 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

Below is an explainer graphic one of my co-workers put together. Basically a perfect confluence of factors to get such an extended and extreme stretch. This one will end up among the greats (March 2012, February 2017, October 1953), with March 2012 certainly still king (9 consecutive +25 or more departures and within that 6 straight +30 departures).

My speculation is that this pattern in the absence of antecedent flash drought and hurricane activity to further amplify the blocking ridge would have yielded an extended stretch of anomalous warmth but not daily record breaking heat in Chicago and elsewhere, with likely a few daily records being threatened. But because of these factors, it'll go down in history. Another one I'll throw in (outside of background climate trends) as a possible contributor in Chicago in terms of the magnitude of the heat each day was the extra UHI factor at ORD given additional runways built recently and just more paved space nearby even vs the mid 2000s. Interestingly enough, prior to this stretch, the only daily record high in Chicago set in the 2000s was 95° on 9/10/13.

www.weather.gov/lot/2017sept_heat36bd4166057d87bdf7b62def0689ce35.jpg

Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk
 

 

Been an interesting year in the temperature department, with February and now this.

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3 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

ORD up to 88.

I've already moved on to tomorrow lol

NAM would get it very close to 90 tomorrow.  GFS a little cooler.  Tomorrow will have organized sw/wsw flow ahead of the front... something we haven't seen a lot of lately.  Curious to see the RAP/HRRR later.

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