Chicago Storm Posted September 24, 2017 Share Posted September 24, 2017 On 9/24/2017 at 2:24 PM, Hoosier said: 92 at ORD according to LOT. Man it's gonna be close tomorrow. The more I look at it, more I think 89. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 24, 2017 Author Share Posted September 24, 2017 21 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: The more I look at it, more more I think 89. You could very well be right. I guess I'm leaning slightly toward hitting 90, but obviously not high confidence. We're dry adiabatic above 850 mb on soundings. Adding 20C to the progged 800 mb temp worked well today, and adding 20C tomorrow puts the high at/slightly over 32C, though any increase in clouds could be just enough to hold it back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted September 24, 2017 Share Posted September 24, 2017 Been stuck at 89 here for quite awhile, MLI stuck at 90. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 24, 2017 Author Share Posted September 24, 2017 90 in Buffalo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted September 24, 2017 Share Posted September 24, 2017 Four straight daily records tied or broken at CLE now with today's high of at least 93. Tomorrow's record of 89 should be easy. Tuesday's 91 a bit tougher but easily doable assuming we're mostly sunny. I can't remember a streak of 5-6 consecutive daily records being broken here anytime recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 24, 2017 Author Share Posted September 24, 2017 16 minutes ago, OHweather said: Four straight daily records tied or broken at CLE now with today's high of at least 93. Tomorrow's record of 89 should be easy. Tuesday's 91 a bit tougher but easily doable assuming we're mostly sunny. I can't remember a streak of 5-6 consecutive daily records being broken here anytime recently. Maybe March 2012? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted September 24, 2017 Share Posted September 24, 2017 12 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Maybe March 2012? For some reason I didn't think that broke as many records in a row as it did. 5 in a row and 6/7 at CLE. We'll see if we can get the next 2 and go for 6 in a row. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted September 24, 2017 Share Posted September 24, 2017 Toledo (KTOL) stats and records 9/21 high 93, low 64, 17F above average. This ties the previous record high of 93, set in 1970. 9/22 high 92, low 67, 18F above average. Record high for this date is 93. 9/23 high 91, low 62, 16F above average Record high for this date is 92. 9/24 high 92, low 62 (as of 5:00PM), 16F above average. This ties the previous record high 92, set in 1891 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 24, 2017 Author Share Posted September 24, 2017 ORD made it to 93. Based on that, raises confidence a little bit in tomorrow reaching 90, assuming there's not a drastic increase in cloud cover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted September 24, 2017 Share Posted September 24, 2017 89*F at DTW, which at least tied the previous record set in 1891. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted September 24, 2017 Share Posted September 24, 2017 ORD made it to 93. Based on that, raises confidence a little bit in tomorrow reaching 90, assuming there's not a drastic increase in cloud cover.92 at MDW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 24, 2017 Author Share Posted September 24, 2017 14 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: 92 at MDW. 21z RAP came in a little warmer aloft than what other models are suggesting and has ORD in the low 90s at 18z Mon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman_ind Posted September 24, 2017 Share Posted September 24, 2017 Indy tied its record high today (92) and also did so on Friday (93). It's the 4th consecutive day of 90 or greater, the longest stretch for so late in the year since the 1890s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted September 24, 2017 Share Posted September 24, 2017 21z RAP came in a little warmer aloft than what other models are suggesting and has ORD in the low 90s at 18z Mon. Was just about to mention that.Looking back at early runs from yesterday compared to actual today, it did fairly well around here.We'll see what the HRRR shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 24, 2017 Author Share Posted September 24, 2017 23 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Was just about to mention that. Looking back at early runs from yesterday compared to actual today, it did fairly well around here. We'll see what the HRRR shows. Ya know, if this 90 streak survives tomorrow, then is it possible that it can even limp through Tuesday? Seemingly unlikely, but Tuesday is another deep mixing day with only very slight cooling aloft. We'll have to see about tomorrow first, but if it can come in on the higher end of possibilities (say 91 or 92), then Tuesday would become intriguing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 25, 2017 Share Posted September 25, 2017 2 hours ago, Powerball said: 89*F at DTW, which at least tied the previous record set in 1891. Yep we were Dayton'd again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 25, 2017 Author Share Posted September 25, 2017 00z NAM came in a little warmer aloft for tomorrow. Based on that, and trends with the HRRR and RAP, I have increasing confidence in ORD logging another 90 degree day tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted September 25, 2017 Share Posted September 25, 2017 00z NAM came in a little warmer aloft for tomorrow. Based on that, and trends with the HRRR and RAP, I have increasing confidence in ORD logging another 90 degree day tomorrow.Indeed.Looks like widespread support for 90/91. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted September 25, 2017 Share Posted September 25, 2017 Oh, and DAY was 89'd again today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 25, 2017 Author Share Posted September 25, 2017 1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said: Indeed. Looks like widespread support for 90/91. It came in a hair warmer for Tue as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted September 25, 2017 Share Posted September 25, 2017 MLI tied the old record at 91. After stagnating for quite awhile at 89 we finally tagged 90 here. The record for tomorrow is 91 again. Looks like more clouds so I'm thinking upper 80s should do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted September 25, 2017 Share Posted September 25, 2017 Dating back to Saturday 9/16 the following high temps have been observed at KCMI 90,91,87,83, 95, 93, 95, 94, 94. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted September 25, 2017 Share Posted September 25, 2017 By the way, I was looking at the GFS yesterday and I saw that a couple of time periods had a 5910m contour pop up yesterday. I have not seen that in the northern states in September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted September 25, 2017 Share Posted September 25, 2017 MLI a degree behind yesterday at this time. 2 degrees behind here. Upper 80s it is. It seems a bit strange that temps are ratcheting back a degree or two per day during a heat wave. Usually at the least temps stay as warm as the spell goes on, if not warmer. Especially with an incoming cold front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted September 25, 2017 Share Posted September 25, 2017 Below is an explainer graphic one of my co-workers put together. Basically a perfect confluence of factors to get such an extended and extreme stretch. This one will end up among the greats (March 2012, February 2017, October 1953), with March 2012 certainly still king (9 consecutive +25 or more departures and within that 6 straight +30 departures). My speculation is that this pattern in the absence of antecedent flash drought and hurricane activity to further amplify the blocking ridge would have yielded an extended stretch of anomalous warmth but not daily record breaking heat in Chicago and elsewhere, with likely a few daily records being threatened. But because of these factors, it'll go down in history. Another one I'll throw in (outside of background climate trends) as a possible contributor in Chicago in terms of the magnitude of the heat each day was the extra UHI factor at ORD given additional runways built recently and just more paved space nearby even vs the mid 2000s. Interestingly enough, prior to this stretch, the only daily record high in Chicago set in the 2000s was 95° on 9/10/13. www.weather.gov/lot/2017sept_heatSent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted September 25, 2017 Share Posted September 25, 2017 Buffalo hit 90 yesterday and looks to hit it today and tomorrow. Yesterday was the hottest day of the year. September 24th, just crazy stuff! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 25, 2017 Author Share Posted September 25, 2017 38 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: Below is an explainer graphic one of my co-workers put together. Basically a perfect confluence of factors to get such an extended and extreme stretch. This one will end up among the greats (March 2012, February 2017, October 1953), with March 2012 certainly still king (9 consecutive +25 or more departures and within that 6 straight +30 departures). My speculation is that this pattern in the absence of antecedent flash drought and hurricane activity to further amplify the blocking ridge would have yielded an extended stretch of anomalous warmth but not daily record breaking heat in Chicago and elsewhere, with likely a few daily records being threatened. But because of these factors, it'll go down in history. Another one I'll throw in (outside of background climate trends) as a possible contributor in Chicago in terms of the magnitude of the heat each day was the extra UHI factor at ORD given additional runways built recently and just more paved space nearby even vs the mid 2000s. Interestingly enough, prior to this stretch, the only daily record high in Chicago set in the 2000s was 95° on 9/10/13. www.weather.gov/lot/2017sept_heat Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk Been an interesting year in the temperature department, with February and now this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 25, 2017 Author Share Posted September 25, 2017 Yesterday's highs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted September 25, 2017 Share Posted September 25, 2017 ORD up to 88. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 25, 2017 Author Share Posted September 25, 2017 3 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: ORD up to 88. I've already moved on to tomorrow lol NAM would get it very close to 90 tomorrow. GFS a little cooler. Tomorrow will have organized sw/wsw flow ahead of the front... something we haven't seen a lot of lately. Curious to see the RAP/HRRR later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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