WxUSAF Posted October 19, 2017 Author Share Posted October 19, 2017 I don’t think BWI got there today, but looks like 2-3 more sub 40F days are possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 19, 2017 Author Share Posted October 19, 2017 Looks like next Thursday is probably the next outside shot at a freeze, particularly for IAD and BWI. Euro has 30s for most of the burbs that morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted October 22, 2017 Share Posted October 22, 2017 As of Sunday 10/22, the GFS fantasy-land is claiming cold air chances for the 30th and 31st, but we'll see how fast that fizzles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 22, 2017 Share Posted October 22, 2017 26 minutes ago, arlwx said: As of Sunday 10/22, the GFS fantasy-land is claiming cold air chances for the 30th and 31st, but we'll see how fast that fizzles. I don't think it's going to fizzle. The pattern shift showed up around 5 days ago and it's only looking better as we move forward. Ops and ens are pretty much identical. BWI and IAD should have no problem by Nov 2nd at the latest. Hard to say for dca. I kinda doubt it but the cold seems pretty legit for mid fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 24, 2017 Share Posted October 24, 2017 Now I'm starting to doubt BWI gets an easy freeze in the next 10 days. IAD may have trouble too. The problem is no cold dome of HP is settling in behind these fronts. The 2 cold shots on tap are quick hitters without having strong HP parked over head with calm winds and clear skies for a night. There will be a period of strong CAA behind each front but I'm not seeing a good setup for radiational cooling. It's too early for CAA to pump in sub freezing temps without big cold to work with. The cold on tap is pretty run of the mill fall stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 24, 2017 Author Share Posted October 24, 2017 25 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Now I'm starting to doubt BWI gets an easy freeze in the next 10 days. IAD may have trouble too. The problem is no cold dome of HP is settling in behind these fronts. The 2 cold shots on tap are quick hitters without having strong HP parked over head with calm winds and clear skies for a night. There will be a period of strong CAA behind each front but I'm not seeing a good setup for radiational cooling. It's too early for CAA to pump in sub freezing temps without big cold to work with. The cold on tap is pretty run of the mill fall stuff. Yup, cold fronts look more formidable from d+8-10 and then turn into days like today when we get there. First two days of next week look chilly, but not major cold like has been occasionally teased. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 27 Oct so far: IAD 34 BWI 37 RIC 37 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 Just now, arlwx said: 27 Oct so far: IAD 34 BWI 37 IAD just dipped to 33 a min ago, but it looks like it'll miss out unless we have a late drop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 42 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: IAD just dipped to 33 a min ago, but it looks like it'll miss out unless we have a late drop. Poop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 27, 2017 Author Share Posted October 27, 2017 So close! 35F at BWI and 33F at IAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 Verbatim, 0z GFS doesn't have BWI at freezing until 11/14. Don't even think about DCA in the next two weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 16 hours ago, nw baltimore wx said: Verbatim, 0z GFS doesn't have BWI at freezing until 11/14. Don't even think about DCA in the next two weeks. What’s the latest freeze ever at the 3 airports? I can’t find it. I put Dec for DCA as more of a joke..might just prove wise this year. Don’t even see IAD with a freeze anytime soon. Yeesh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 7 hours ago, BristowWx said: What’s the latest freeze ever at the 3 airports? I can’t find it. I put Dec for DCA as more of a joke..might just prove wise this year. Don’t even see IAD with a freeze anytime soon. Yeesh I have missed reading Ian's input since he scaled back time here, and his knack for research ranks up there with the best. The dates below are from a 2012 CWG article by him and Justin. WxUSA probably has the dates of the first freezes from contests since then, so maybe he can confirm that there hasn't been any later than these dates. DCA 12/22/2001 BWI 11/13/1986 IAD 11/11/2005 Here's the 2012 article which includes the top five earliest and latest of the 3 airports, but I'm not sure of the accuracy. My guess is that the earliest chart is unchanged. https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/first-freeze-of-fall-in-the-washington-dc-area-is-typical-by-mid-october/2012/10/12/8ecc969a-141c-11e2-be82-c3411b7680a9_blog.html?utm_term=.d2bbc9111886 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 0500 31 Oct: BWI 38 IAD 38 RIC 41 I think this makes 4 sub-40 mornings at BWI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 2 hours ago, nw baltimore wx said: I have missed reading Ian's input since he scaled back time here, and his knack for research ranks up there with the best. The dates below are from a 2012 CWG article by him and Justin. WxUSA probably has the dates of the first freezes from contests since then, so maybe he can confirm that there hasn't been any later than these dates. DCA 12/22/2001 BWI 11/13/1986 IAD 11/11/2005 Here's the 2012 article which includes the top five earliest and latest of the 3 airports, but I'm not sure of the accuracy. My guess is that the earliest chart is unchanged. https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/first-freeze-of-fall-in-the-washington-dc-area-is-typical-by-mid-october/2012/10/12/8ecc969a-141c-11e2-be82-c3411b7680a9_blog.html?utm_term=.d2bbc9111886 Thank you. I believe we have the opportunity to challenge all of them. DCA is probably the hardest but the other two, looking at the models, make me think we could do it. Not a great milestone to achieve but nonetheless it will be a discussion point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 Go ahead and give the trophy to Gopper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 6 hours ago, nw baltimore wx said: I have missed reading Ian's input since he scaled back time here, and his knack for research ranks up there with the best. The dates below are from a 2012 CWG article by him and Justin. WxUSA probably has the dates of the first freezes from contests since then, so maybe he can confirm that there hasn't been any later than these dates. DCA 12/22/2001 BWI 11/13/1986 IAD 11/11/2005 Here's the 2012 article which includes the top five earliest and latest of the 3 airports, but I'm not sure of the accuracy. My guess is that the earliest chart is unchanged. https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/first-freeze-of-fall-in-the-washington-dc-area-is-typical-by-mid-october/2012/10/12/8ecc969a-141c-11e2-be82-c3411b7680a9_blog.html?utm_term=.d2bbc9111886 I was wondering when that article would be mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 On 9/25/2017 at 7:49 AM, North Balti Zen said: DCA 11/16 BWI 10/24 IAD 10/15 RIC 11/5 Tie 4 Sigh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gopper Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 3 hours ago, EastCoast NPZ said: Go ahead and give the trophy to Gopper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted November 1, 2017 Share Posted November 1, 2017 To start off November: BWI 40 IAD 37 RIC 48 The GFS is claiming a chance for somewhere to freeze on 11/9, and a fantasy for everywhere on Nov 15-16. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 4, 2017 Author Share Posted November 4, 2017 We suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted November 4, 2017 Share Posted November 4, 2017 7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: We suck. That just puts things into perspective.. Heck, even a decent chunk of Mississippi have gotten their first freeze Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted November 6, 2017 Share Posted November 6, 2017 LWX's forecasts for 11/11 morning: BWI 30 IAD 31 DCA 33 (and from AKQ) RIC 38 If this materializes, some will be happy and some will not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 6, 2017 Author Share Posted November 6, 2017 GFS continues with all locations in the subregion seeing a freeze Saturday morning with BWI and IAD possibly having their first on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 8, 2017 Author Share Posted November 8, 2017 If forecasts hold, it looks like a very close finish with Bob, H2O, and myself all within a couple points. Bob has the advantage though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted November 10, 2017 Share Posted November 10, 2017 Yeah IAD and BWI will likely hit 32F well before midnight tonight. The 2005 Veterans Day record at Dulles looks looks like it will stand alone......for this year anyway. Meanwhile all four airports in the contest will likely get below freezing and even into the 20's by dawn tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted November 11, 2017 Share Posted November 11, 2017 At approximately 7:48PM EST the temperature hit 32F at IAD! November 10th it is for 2017. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted November 11, 2017 Share Posted November 11, 2017 BWI has also hit 32F per 7:54PM EST hourly obs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted November 11, 2017 Share Posted November 11, 2017 RIC is at 32F as of 10:54PM EST. DCA is at 33F as of 10:52PM EST. Could DCA make it to 32F before the 11th? Stay tuned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted November 11, 2017 Share Posted November 11, 2017 Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaand DCA hits 32F as of 11:52PM EST. So first freeze: BWI: Nov. 10th IAD: Nov. 10th DCA: Nov. 10th RIC: Nov. 10th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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