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E PA/NJ/DE Fall 2017 OBS Thread


Rtd208

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If the somewhat serious storm as RedSky references actually happens it will catch a lot of people off guard. winds, rain, wires,   power issues.... Not that we need any hype. but a little emphasis on what might be 48 hours away would help to get some patio furniture, trash cans, away, etc. etc.  Interesting to watch if nothing else. Also a rather amazing time frame when you think of where parts of the storm are today.

 

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Beautiful day in both East Nantmeal and Sea Isle City NJ - Climate Summary today HI/Lo - East Nantmeal 61.1/38.5 (lots of frost in the lower spots) and 63.8/46.0 in Sea Isle City NJ.

Unfortunately, where just a week ago it looked likely that we would match some of the local official climate sites in this being a record or near record warm October it now appears likely (based on the NWS local forecast extrapolation for the rest of October 2017) that we will do no better than either #6 or #7 for warmest Octobers. Unfortunately, we are being beaten out by the years back when October was really warm over 75 years ago! The warmest Octobers on record here in Chester County (1894-Present) look like the below

1900 - 61.2

1919 - 60.3

1920 - 60.1

1941 - 60.0

2007 - 59.8

2017 - 59.1

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NHC has declared TD-18 official and currently has a cone going pretty far east (although verbatim, not far from the benchmark).  Not that it can't come in further west if/when it becomes a TS but am wondering if the current verbatim path would have it interact that much if at all with the front and its progged coastal. I could see it bombing out on its way to NE though.

td18-150737_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind-10282017.png

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3 hours ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

NHC has declared TD-18 official and currently has a cone going pretty far east (although verbatim, not far from the benchmark).  Not that it can't come in further west if/when it becomes a TS but am wondering if the current verbatim path would have it interact that much if at all with the front and its progged coastal. I could see it bombing out on its way to NE though.

td18-150737_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind-10282017.png

That looks way far east....

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That looks way far east....

Looks legit to me. It then phases up in New England/upstate NY. There are 2 lobes of slp we are dealing with. One goes inland between OC, NJ and NYC the other is the tropical entity which remains well east of the frontal boundary until approaching New England.

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1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Looks legit to me. It then phases up in New England/upstate NY. There are 2 lobes of slp we are dealing with. One goes inland between OC, NJ and NYC the other is the tropical entity which remains well east of the frontal boundary until approaching New England.

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Yeah - that's what it's looking like.  A NE bomb.  I think this is why there has been discussion about "dry slots" in this area.  It'll probably be 2 separate rounds of rain depending on when they each get here or near, although the tropical system could enhance some of the moisture up the front before the actual low gets near.

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30 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

Yeah - that's what it's looking like.  A NE bomb.  I think this is why there has been discussion about "dry slots" in this area.  It'll probably be 2 separate rounds of rain depending on when they each get here or near, although the tropical system could enhance some of the moisture up the front before the actual low gets near.

Ch 6 and Ch 10 future cast radar (which I usually don't trust) were showing this. Personally, I'm looking forward to some nice wind gust (40-45+...50?)

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Just now, Birds~69 said:

Ch 6 and Ch 10 future cast radar (which I usually don't trust) were showing this. Personally, I'm looking forward to some nice wind gust (40-45+...50?)

That should happen as it departs.   That's why I just got done bringing in what was left of the houseplants and some citrus trees that are somewhat tall.  Even with securing them, it's progged to have some decent chill the next couple days/nights and they would hate that (wet + cold in containers).

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1 minute ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

That should happen as it departs.   That's why I just got done bringing in what was left of the houseplants and some citrus trees that are somewhat tall.  Even with securing them, it's progged to have some decent chill the next couple days/nights and they would hate that (wet + cold in containers).

My neighbors have a bunch of halloween stuff hanging from trees/porch etc....good luck with that.

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11 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

Oh geez.  Alot of folks have stuff out (including my sisters).  That'll be a mess trying to run out there in the rain and secure it.

Just checked NHC and TS Philippe has been born as of the 5 pm update.  Max sustained winds 40 mph, so the game is afoot!  Cone isn't significantly different.

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no 

7 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Remember this name if thats the case.....Carlos Hyde. Been watching him since college. Amazing rb.....crappy line in San Fran. Dude is a beast. That game has upset written all over it.

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no rb scares me least of all Hyde with their oline. eagles d is best in league against run. they've shut down better rbs already this year. meanwhile San Fran has awful run d. worst in the league. no upset here. now next week...

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24 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

Not too long before they get into some steadier stuff again...

ntl.jpg

See the gap in precip shields east and west. Guess where I'm located?

It's been that way all day. When it comes to major weather events, for me it's just the same **** different day (season)...

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