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E PA/NJ/DE Fall 2017 OBS Thread

Rtd208

By Rtd208,
in Philadelphia Region

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Hurricane Agnes

Hurricane Agnes

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

looks like a squall line is coming together from extreme se pa down to SNJ that should rip through low bucks/montgomery and all of NJ. Anyone in philly getting any wind out of that? 

Am up to 0.5" from that but no thunder and not much wind.  Just a heavier burst of rain.

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The Iceman

The Iceman

Posted
Posted

wind has really picked up out in front of the line in trenton. have had a few gusts over 30 mph. line looks to be strengthening as it hits the areas that saw a little bit of sun and destabilization. won't be surprised to see some severe warnings issues soon as it won't take much to mix the winds down to the surface.

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The Iceman

The Iceman

Posted
Posted

SWS issued for the showers

  

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1030 AM EDT TUE OCT 24 2017

NJZ007-009-015-017>019-021-022-027-PAZ071-104>106-241500-
Camden-Atlantic-Southeastern Burlington-Mercer-Hunterdon-Northwestern
Burlington-Cumberland-Warren-Gloucester-Lower Bucks-Eastern
Montgomery-Philadelphia-Upper Bucks-
1030 AM EDT TUE OCT 24 2017

...A LINE OF SHOWERS WILL AFFECT CAMDEN...NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC...
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON...WESTERN MERCER...HUNTERDON... NORTHWESTERN
BURLINGTON...NORTHEASTERN CUMBERLAND...CENTRAL WARREN...
SOUTHEASTERN GLOUCESTER...BUCKS...EASTERN MONTGOMERY AND
NORTHEASTERN PHILADELPHIA COUNTIES...

At 1028 AM EDT, radar indicated showers were located along a line
extending from Milford to near Chesilhurst. Movement was north at 55
mph.

Winds up to 40 mph are possible with these showers.

Locations impacted include...
Philadelphia, Trenton, Cherry Hill, Bensalem, Evesham, Mount Laurel,
Ewing, Willingboro, Voorhees, Medford, Lindenwold, Hammonton,
Lumberton, Florence, Burlington, Bristol, Mount Holly, Doylestown,
Byram and Riverside.

LAT...LON 4099 7490 4080 7485 4079 7489 4075 7484
      4051 7478 4051 7480 3988 7462 3949 7495
      4048 7519
TIME...MOT...LOC 1428Z 190DEG 49KT 4055 7508 3971 7491

$$

CMS
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The Iceman

The Iceman

Posted
Posted

GFS/EURO showing a nice coastal this weekend with a ton of rain. GFS has 3-4 inches of rain for much of the area. Canadian is inland and slower with the system though but still puts out a ton of rain. Like Ralph mentioned this is one to keep an eye on as a lot of times this events serve as a precursor for winter storm track. We really want this to stay as a coastal and not an apps runner. It is looking very good at the moment though for that. Another thing to note is neither the GFS and Euro show the return of above average temps in the medium to long range. It's like as soon as November hit the ridge is beaten down somewhat and we have seasonable temps, even BN on some days. Also important to note the amount of cold air that builds in Canada in this time frame. Very encouraging that signs continue to point towards a good December and good start to winter.

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The Iceman

The Iceman

Posted
Posted

Here's my totally amateur winter forecast based on what I have learned in a few met classes and from being a hobbyist here for the last 10+ years(yikes time flies). I used a blend of analogs and the limited knowledge on long range tele-connection forecasting that I have as well as the general pattern through October. My analog year were 61-62, 67-68,80-81, 85-86, 96-97, 00-01, 08-09, 13-14. I chose these largely based on ENSO. They are largely all 2nd year weak or neutral nina's after some warming in the beginning of the year. The warm October is a great sign for at least a good start to winter as many of our good years feature this. Also with the theme of coastal's even if some are out to sea or just inland is a good sign imo for an active storm track in the next few months. Concerns with the pattern now are the SE Ridge that just doesn't want to die that has been locked in for some tme now and the reoccurring trough over Alaska which is usually a death kneel for our area. Signs for a -NAO look fairly good to at least start winter. SST's in the N atlantic are much above normal and long range models have been showing height rises in the Greenland area for a good bit now. This leads me to believe that we will at least start the winter in a -NAO/-AO regime. Now the pacific is much trickier as it has been behaving more like a nino lately than a Nina which actually may not be a bad thing. We want an active southern jet so we are not left dry. Forecasts right now are also trending towards a -EPO which is usually good for a snowy period but the trend to keep a trough over Alaska at some point is something that doesn't seem to want to go away. I think we get some breaks from the Pacific but when it breaks down, it will drive our pattern more than the Atlantic. I think we get periods of +PNA but the majority of the time it is a -PNA. Now this isn't the end all be all but it does lead to toughing in the west which can prevent the spread of cold air towards us even with a -NAO and -AO. With all of that said I think it is a good probability that we have a good start to winter based on the Pacific looking to cooperate in this time period, a good probability of a -NAO, the amount of cold air that is due to overtake Canada in the next week, along with the Analogs giving credence to a good pattern to start that goes until mid January. I do there will be periods of mildness even in this timeframe so it isn't all cold but it will provide our best chance for snow. Once the Alaskan trough locks in, our pattern flips and we see above average temps through March and below average precip. So at least the good news is there won't be many super soakers I am thinking. So with all of that said here is my forecast for winter in our area.

 

December - Temps 0 to -2; Snowfall above average; Active storm track - due to December climatology some will be rain or mix while N and W cashes in. I think there will be a few overrunning events towards the end of the months as well. 

January - Temps +1 to +3, the above average temps in 2nd half of the month outweigh the slightly below average temps in 1st half and maybe first 2/3rds of month. As we have seen in years past that pattern changes usually take longer than anticipated; Snowfall average. I think the storm track remains active in the first part of the month and this is our best shot of snow. The time period before the pattern change could be the big storm for the winter. Pattern changes mid-late month and along with it the storm track becomes less active and temps rise. Could see a pattern close to september/october imo. 

February - Temps +3 to +5, Strong torch to begin the month. Cold shots are transient. Snowfall Below average. Similar pattern to what we are saw the past month and a half. Mild temps with a few fronts that bring a bit of rain but overall warm and dry. Temps could be underdone honestly as I do not think we see more than a few BN temp days.

DJF - Temps +1 to +3. I don't think we have even a majority torch winter but the times of above average will strongly out perform the below average anomalies. A week of much above average temps can cancel out 2 weeks of below normal temps and I think that happens this winter. Snowfall - I think the area finishes with average snowfall with N and W having a better chance of above average while City, immediate burbs, SNJ a better chance of below average. I can't see Philly, immediate burbs, SNJ being above average with February, typically the snowiest month, likely being a dud. Historically December does not deliver huge storms in our area outside of N and W so while we do better than average that still may only account for 6 to 8 inches. If December storms do not deliver for the philly area then I think they finish slightly below average on the year even if we cash in during the first few weeks of January. Losing our snowiest month. N and W historically does much better in December and I think that they will get decent storms where the coastal plain and Delmarva gets a mix or rain especially in december so I think they have a much better chance of seeing average or above average snow. As we have seen in recent years though that one storm can make or break these forecasts so I am not real confident either way. 15-16 was arguably one of the worst winters since 2000 but we finished with average or above average due to the monster storm.

 

Bonus March: Should be a fun month as I think the cold returns in the 1st week but the analogs point to below average precip. I do think we see some snowfall though and it could be enough to bring us to our average on the coastal plain. Could also see the big one that brings us to above average. March is a crap shoot like that but I do think precip will be below average. I don't see it being a torch month. I would go -1 to +1 on temps.

 

Thanks for reading and I wouldn't use this for any planning purposes :lol:

 

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The Iceman

The Iceman

Posted
Posted

Found an awesome site for models specifically the euro. Not sure how accurate it is but gives precip and several other parameters I've never seen at 3 hour intervals all for free... check it out. https://weather.us/model-charts/euro and http://wx.graphics/index.php... can't believe all of the free euro data. will really come in handy for winter. Anyway here is the 00z Euro total precip map for this weekend...looks like a pretty significant storm. GFS though is much different.

 

ecmwf_acc_precip_ne_120.png

 

Also interesting is the projected wind speeds...

ecmwf_uv10m_ne_102.png

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Hurricane Agnes

Hurricane Agnes

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

Found an awesome site for models specifically the euro. Not sure how accurate it is but gives precip and several other parameters I've never seen at 3 hour intervals all for free... check it out. https://weather.us/model-charts/euro and http://wx.graphics/index.php... can't believe all of the free euro data. will really come in handy for winter. Anyway here is the 00z Euro total precip map for this weekend...looks like a pretty significant storm. GFS though is much different.

 

ecmwf_acc_precip_ne_120.png

 

Also interesting is the projected wind speeds...

ecmwf_uv10m_ne_102.png

I think that is from the site of a guy who was posting on the Tropical Weather forum and it was used quite a bit during the hurricanes.  Most have very much appreciated it although I think it is limited as to how far out it goes.

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Birds~69

Birds~69

Posted
Posted

Nice write up Iceman at post 164. Sounds like a good Dec and early Jan then we drop off the cliff mid Jan and blow torch Feb. And I'm not a big fan of March or April snow. They usually (not always) don't hang around or white rain. (And everyone's car looks like shiet from the salt/brine) I do like an early shot of cold/snow around the holidays so if that pans out I'll be happy. Overall, before it even happens, sounds like a grade "C" winter but anything can happen.

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RedSky

RedSky

Posted
Posted
55 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

Found an awesome site for models specifically the euro. Not sure how accurate it is but gives precip and several other parameters I've never seen at 3 hour intervals all for free... check it out. https://weather.us/model-charts/euro and http://wx.graphics/index.php... can't believe all of the free euro data. will really come in handy for winter. Anyway here is the 00z Euro total precip map for this weekend...looks like a pretty significant storm. GFS though is much different.

 

ecmwf_acc_precip_ne_120.png

 

Also interesting is the projected wind speeds...

ecmwf_uv10m_ne_102.png

Best free euro maps by far great find!

 

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RedSky

RedSky

Posted
Posted

If it's going to be a lame grade C or worse winter I would always want the best of winter occurring in December and first half of January, heck if we got rocking for a three week stretch in that period i could even consider it a decent winter I hope it works out that way. Something like 2005-06 only with the early cold holding on for three weeks longer and the huge snowstorm somewhere around the holidays, one can dream right?

Man last winter was dreadful mild and dry then a cold slop March ugggh, not to mention the titanic modeled snowstorm bust when the vaunted euro dropped dead of a heart attack on the street with it's blizzard a 3-6" snooze fest

 

 

 

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The Iceman

The Iceman

Posted
Posted

Incredible how we are about 66-72 hours out from the event and there is still a very large discrepency between the EURO and GFS. EURO has backed off a bit on precip totals but is still a fairly strong early season storm that hugs the coast while GFS is weaker and further east. 6z GFS has trended even further to the east. Ukie is very similar to the Euro just a hair to east and the CMC is very similar to EURO. GFS is either going to score a major early season coup or be completely out to lunch. My money is on the EURO/UKIE/CMC. Euro spits out 1-3" region wide, shows a dry slot for SNJ and maybe into SE PA which is where the 1" totals. GFS shows the dry slot too but gives SNJ only .5" with most of the region only an inch with a little over to the N and W. UKIE is a soaker for the region with 2-4" region wide, again less in SNJ, more like 1-2".  CMC is 2-3+" region wide with no apparent dry slot either for the region except extreme SNJ. Quite the early season model war. Will be interesting to see what the short term models RGEM and NAM have to say tonight. NAM is out of range and clearly so as it's solution just looks odd. Takes the same track as EURO off the coast of NJ then scoots NE before head back NW into Mass. I don't put much stock in it this far out. Area gets dry slotted and precip is similar to GFS maybe a tad higher everywhere.

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Hurricane Agnes

Hurricane Agnes

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

Incredible how we are about 66-72 hours out from the event and there is still a very large discrepency between the EURO and GFS. EURO has backed off a bit on precip totals but is still a fairly strong early season storm that hugs the coast while GFS is weaker and further east. 6z GFS has trended even further to the east. Ukie is very similar to the Euro just a hair to east and the CMC is very similar to EURO. GFS is either going to score a major early season coup or be completely out to lunch. My money is on the EURO/UKIE/CMC. Euro spits out 1-3" region wide, shows a dry slot for SNJ and maybe into SE PA which is where the 1" totals. GFS shows the dry slot too but gives SNJ only .5" with most of the region only an inch with a little over to the N and W. UKIE is a soaker for the region with 2-4" region wide, again less in SNJ, more like 1-2".  CMC is 2-3+" region wide with no apparent dry slot either for the region except extreme SNJ. Quite the early season model war. Will be interesting to see what the short term models RGEM and NAM have to say tonight.

The problem is this and if/when it forms - 

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Oct 27 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased and become more
concentrated in association with a trough of low pressure over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea.  Environmental conditions are expected
to be conducive for development today and Saturday, and a tropical
depression could form as the system moves northward over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea.  Increasing upper-level winds will make
conditions less favorable when the system moves north of Cuba and
merges with a cold front on Sunday.  Interests in the Cayman Islands
and central and western Cuba should monitor the progress of this
system.  Regardless of development, this disturbance is expected to
produce locally heavy rainfall over the Cayman Islands, Jamaica,
and portions of Cuba during the next day or two.  These rains are
forecast to spread northward across portions of South Florida and
the Keys on Saturday, and over the northwestern Bahamas Saturday
night and Sunday.  An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is
scheduled to investigate this system this afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

Forecaster Brown

That (i.e., the whether or not) and the timing of it (if it does form) will make a difference in the precip as the front approaches the coast (i.e., garden variety coastal vs an enhanced one due to an actual tropical system).

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