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E PA/NJ/DE Fall 2017 OBS Thread


Rtd208

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What a terrible air mass to have in mid October. It's way too humid!

OT but does anybody else like to go back into past storm threads of hurricanes and snowstorms and just re-read and look at all the images posted of late night Euro maps and what not? Cause I have no life and do....

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13 hours ago, Newman said:

What a terrible air mass to have in mid October. It's way too humid!

OT but does anybody else like to go back into past storm threads of hurricanes and snowstorms and just re-read and look at all the images posted of late night Euro maps and what not? Cause I have no life and do....

Not often but I have in the past.

64F / DP 60F

Some showers appear to be moving in...

sh.jpg

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9 hours ago, RedSky said:

Weather World forecasts 25 of the next 35 days above normal 

 

winter really isn't looking good on the euro monthly's and CFS. Looks like December has average temps which for here is hard to get snow until later in the month, then Jan is AN, with February very AN. The AO looks strongly positive through the entire winter as well. Leaning towards a BN snowfall winter at the moment especially since I don't think we will see a huge storm that drops all of our average snow at once like in 2015. If we strike out in December then it's almost certainly going to be an awful winter and I don't typically like most storm chances in December around here as there is usually a lack of cold air. The only thing it has going for it is that october is going to finish well above normal which for analog forecasting typically means a above normal snow and normal or below normal temps in winter but if the SE ridge fails to break down in time in December, this winter could be well below normal. I'm waiting another week or so before releasing my final call because there are still other things I want to look at but I think an average winter for the area would be great at this point.

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42 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

Anyone know if Glenn and the other local stations will be issuing a winter outlook? I haven't heard anything...then again I'm watching less and less TV besides sports.

I haven't heard/seen anything either, but I think they usually do them around Thanksgiving.

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1 hour ago, JTA66 said:

I haven't heard/seen anything either, but I think they usually do them around Thanksgiving.

Did a google from Glenn's previous winter outlooks. I found a couple and they were broadcast between Nov 12 - Nov 19. So you were about right...looks like a week or two before Thanksgiving. And if I remember correctly all the stations give their outlooks around the same time. (within a week of each other) I would expect the stations to start "pimping" between 1st and 2nd week of Nov to let us know the actual date of the outlook(s).

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Temps today have remained in the 50's following our 62.5 degree midnight high. Today will still finish as our 9th straight day of above normal temperatures. However, to put this all in perspective - Since August 1st (the last 73 days) we have had 42 below normal days and 31 above normal days....the cool on balance has won out over the warmth over the last 2 1/2 months in this area.

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15 hours ago, The Iceman said:

winter really isn't looking good on the euro monthly's and CFS. Looks like December has average temps which for here is hard to get snow until later in the month, then Jan is AN, with February very AN. The AO looks strongly positive through the entire winter as well. Leaning towards a BN snowfall winter at the moment especially since I don't think we will see a huge storm that drops all of our average snow at once like in 2015. If we strike out in December then it's almost certainly going to be an awful winter and I don't typically like most storm chances in December around here as there is usually a lack of cold air. The only thing it has going for it is that october is going to finish well above normal which for analog forecasting typically means a above normal snow and normal or below normal temps in winter but if the SE ridge fails to break down in time in December, this winter could be well below normal. I'm waiting another week or so before releasing my final call because there are still other things I want to look at but I think an average winter for the area would be great at this point.

It's hard to believe we could be headed for a third disaster winter in a row, aside from the January 2016 storm that winter was awful. Long range modeling leaves much to be desired, the euro weeklies failed to forecast the magnitude of the warmth coming back in early September.

 

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winter really isn't looking good on the euro monthly's and CFS. Looks like December has average temps which for here is hard to get snow until later in the month, then Jan is AN, with February very AN. The AO looks strongly positive through the entire winter as well. Leaning towards a BN snowfall winter at the moment especially since I don't think we will see a huge storm that drops all of our average snow at once like in 2015. If we strike out in December then it's almost certainly going to be an awful winter and I don't typically like most storm chances in December around here as there is usually a lack of cold air. The only thing it has going for it is that october is going to finish well above normal which for analog forecasting typically means a above normal snow and normal or below normal temps in winter but if the SE ridge fails to break down in time in December, this winter could be well below normal. I'm waiting another week or so before releasing my final call because there are still other things I want to look at but I think an average winter for the area would be great at this point.

Im looking at 2000-2001 as a preliminary analogue for right now for the upcoming winter (DJF) which disagrees with the Euro monthlies and CFS in general. I urge caution when using CFS particularly for seasonal forecasting. October is panning out how I had hoped thus far based on JJAS pattern and specific teleconnections and feel decent that at the very least we end up at avg snowfall. Imo we are losing support for a 'pathetic' winter. Storm pattern looks like it will be active early. Still have a ways to go but Im not nearly as pessimistic as the CFS, Euro monthlies, nor yourself. Will revisit this end of Oct and post more solid thoughts/analysis for DJF.

Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk

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I don't think that forecasters anticipated all of the cloud cover on both days. The clouds stuck around both days and kept temps in check...

 

Can really feel the front came through this morning. Feeling pretty brisk outside and definitely cooler than 6-7 am. Tonight could be the first frost for N and W areas and definitely at least the coolest night of the season for everywhere else. Looks like the temps moderate again though by mid week and we are back to low 70's and high 50's lows until another weak front comes through and knocks temps down to average for a day before moderating again, rinse and repeat...

 

Deep in the long range, the GFS has been showing a very strong cold front/low pressure system towards the end of the month with a shift in the pattern to cooler temps and seems to trend away from this transient pattern. Good to see some actual cold air beginning to show up along with some hints of a pattern change. Will be interesting to keep an eye on over the next few days, could be a decent severe set up as well with the above average temps. 

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Soon as the winds & dp dropped off, the temp plummeted.  Am glad I covered some potted tender plants.  Bottomed out (so far) just barely @ 39F with current dp 35.  There are spots within a couple miles of here in low-lying parts of Wyndmoor showing 35F.  I think this was progged to be the coldest part of the week and it is supposed to slowly warm up the rest of the week.  This will start some foliage color changes on plants/trees that haven't started showing fall colors yet!

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