JTA66 Posted October 10, 2017 Share Posted October 10, 2017 75F at midnight, 66F for a low ... no frost on the pumpkin last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted October 10, 2017 Share Posted October 10, 2017 71F / DP down a bit at 64F and you can feel the difference compared to yesterday's 72F+... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted October 10, 2017 Share Posted October 10, 2017 13 hours ago, nzucker said: What did October 2007 finish at there? That was the 5th warmest October on Record and warmest since 1941 with an average temp of 59.8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted October 10, 2017 Share Posted October 10, 2017 How sad is it when a DP of 64F on 10/10 feels refreshing?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted October 10, 2017 Share Posted October 10, 2017 2 hours ago, JTA66 said: How sad is it when a DP of 64F on 10/10 feels refreshing?? About as sad as having the DP at 67F at 3:40pm on 10/10. It really should be in the 50's...low 60's tops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted October 10, 2017 Share Posted October 10, 2017 What a terrible air mass to have in mid October. It's way too humid! OT but does anybody else like to go back into past storm threads of hurricanes and snowstorms and just re-read and look at all the images posted of late night Euro maps and what not? Cause I have no life and do.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted October 11, 2017 Share Posted October 11, 2017 Climate Summary for today in NW Chester County PA Hi/Lo 76.1/64.9 (+14.8) above normal but of course not even close to record levels back when we were really warm back on this date in 1939 we hit 88 degrees in Chester County Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted October 11, 2017 Share Posted October 11, 2017 13 hours ago, Newman said: What a terrible air mass to have in mid October. It's way too humid! OT but does anybody else like to go back into past storm threads of hurricanes and snowstorms and just re-read and look at all the images posted of late night Euro maps and what not? Cause I have no life and do.... Not often but I have in the past. 64F / DP 60F Some showers appear to be moving in... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted October 11, 2017 Share Posted October 11, 2017 Anyone else planning to attend the SKYWARN session tonight in Burlington to become a spotter? If you go and see a younger guy with a shaved head come say hi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted October 12, 2017 Share Posted October 12, 2017 Weather World forecasts 25 of the next 35 days above normal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted October 12, 2017 Share Posted October 12, 2017 Received 0.49" overnight and it appears to be just about over. 58F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 12, 2017 Share Posted October 12, 2017 Perfect surf fishing weather for October!! Strong ENE onshore winds, temps around 60, incoming tide. Headed to the beach........true story! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted October 12, 2017 Share Posted October 12, 2017 Looks like most of the precip has moved away from MBY now and I ended up with 0.37" since just before 2 am. Currently 58F and overcast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted October 12, 2017 Share Posted October 12, 2017 9 hours ago, RedSky said: Weather World forecasts 25 of the next 35 days above normal winter really isn't looking good on the euro monthly's and CFS. Looks like December has average temps which for here is hard to get snow until later in the month, then Jan is AN, with February very AN. The AO looks strongly positive through the entire winter as well. Leaning towards a BN snowfall winter at the moment especially since I don't think we will see a huge storm that drops all of our average snow at once like in 2015. If we strike out in December then it's almost certainly going to be an awful winter and I don't typically like most storm chances in December around here as there is usually a lack of cold air. The only thing it has going for it is that october is going to finish well above normal which for analog forecasting typically means a above normal snow and normal or below normal temps in winter but if the SE ridge fails to break down in time in December, this winter could be well below normal. I'm waiting another week or so before releasing my final call because there are still other things I want to look at but I think an average winter for the area would be great at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted October 12, 2017 Share Posted October 12, 2017 Anyone know if Glenn and the other local stations will be issuing a winter outlook? I haven't heard anything...then again I'm watching less and less TV besides sports. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted October 12, 2017 Share Posted October 12, 2017 42 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Anyone know if Glenn and the other local stations will be issuing a winter outlook? I haven't heard anything...then again I'm watching less and less TV besides sports. I haven't heard/seen anything either, but I think they usually do them around Thanksgiving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted October 12, 2017 Share Posted October 12, 2017 1 hour ago, JTA66 said: I haven't heard/seen anything either, but I think they usually do them around Thanksgiving. Did a google from Glenn's previous winter outlooks. I found a couple and they were broadcast between Nov 12 - Nov 19. So you were about right...looks like a week or two before Thanksgiving. And if I remember correctly all the stations give their outlooks around the same time. (within a week of each other) I would expect the stations to start "pimping" between 1st and 2nd week of Nov to let us know the actual date of the outlook(s). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted October 12, 2017 Share Posted October 12, 2017 Temps today have remained in the 50's following our 62.5 degree midnight high. Today will still finish as our 9th straight day of above normal temperatures. However, to put this all in perspective - Since August 1st (the last 73 days) we have had 42 below normal days and 31 above normal days....the cool on balance has won out over the warmth over the last 2 1/2 months in this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted October 13, 2017 Share Posted October 13, 2017 15 hours ago, The Iceman said: winter really isn't looking good on the euro monthly's and CFS. Looks like December has average temps which for here is hard to get snow until later in the month, then Jan is AN, with February very AN. The AO looks strongly positive through the entire winter as well. Leaning towards a BN snowfall winter at the moment especially since I don't think we will see a huge storm that drops all of our average snow at once like in 2015. If we strike out in December then it's almost certainly going to be an awful winter and I don't typically like most storm chances in December around here as there is usually a lack of cold air. The only thing it has going for it is that october is going to finish well above normal which for analog forecasting typically means a above normal snow and normal or below normal temps in winter but if the SE ridge fails to break down in time in December, this winter could be well below normal. I'm waiting another week or so before releasing my final call because there are still other things I want to look at but I think an average winter for the area would be great at this point. It's hard to believe we could be headed for a third disaster winter in a row, aside from the January 2016 storm that winter was awful. Long range modeling leaves much to be desired, the euro weeklies failed to forecast the magnitude of the warmth coming back in early September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 13, 2017 Author Share Posted October 13, 2017 Current temp is 53 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 13, 2017 Share Posted October 13, 2017 winter really isn't looking good on the euro monthly's and CFS. Looks like December has average temps which for here is hard to get snow until later in the month, then Jan is AN, with February very AN. The AO looks strongly positive through the entire winter as well. Leaning towards a BN snowfall winter at the moment especially since I don't think we will see a huge storm that drops all of our average snow at once like in 2015. If we strike out in December then it's almost certainly going to be an awful winter and I don't typically like most storm chances in December around here as there is usually a lack of cold air. The only thing it has going for it is that october is going to finish well above normal which for analog forecasting typically means a above normal snow and normal or below normal temps in winter but if the SE ridge fails to break down in time in December, this winter could be well below normal. I'm waiting another week or so before releasing my final call because there are still other things I want to look at but I think an average winter for the area would be great at this point.Im looking at 2000-2001 as a preliminary analogue for right now for the upcoming winter (DJF) which disagrees with the Euro monthlies and CFS in general. I urge caution when using CFS particularly for seasonal forecasting. October is panning out how I had hoped thus far based on JJAS pattern and specific teleconnections and feel decent that at the very least we end up at avg snowfall. Imo we are losing support for a 'pathetic' winter. Storm pattern looks like it will be active early. Still have a ways to go but Im not nearly as pessimistic as the CFS, Euro monthlies, nor yourself. Will revisit this end of Oct and post more solid thoughts/analysis for DJF.Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted October 15, 2017 Share Posted October 15, 2017 More humidity on the pumpkin overnight. Looks like a 2 day taste of fall then right back to above average temps. Gotta love the ++AMO! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted October 15, 2017 Share Posted October 15, 2017 One question - what happened to the very warm summer like weekend???? currently 66F yesterday was 64 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted October 16, 2017 Share Posted October 16, 2017 9 hours ago, RedSky said: One question - what happened to the very warm summer like weekend???? currently 66F yesterday was 64 Yeah...that was a little weird? It seemed to vanish without much here-say.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted October 16, 2017 Share Posted October 16, 2017 I don't think that forecasters anticipated all of the cloud cover on both days. The clouds stuck around both days and kept temps in check... Can really feel the front came through this morning. Feeling pretty brisk outside and definitely cooler than 6-7 am. Tonight could be the first frost for N and W areas and definitely at least the coolest night of the season for everywhere else. Looks like the temps moderate again though by mid week and we are back to low 70's and high 50's lows until another weak front comes through and knocks temps down to average for a day before moderating again, rinse and repeat... Deep in the long range, the GFS has been showing a very strong cold front/low pressure system towards the end of the month with a shift in the pattern to cooler temps and seems to trend away from this transient pattern. Good to see some actual cold air beginning to show up along with some hints of a pattern change. Will be interesting to keep an eye on over the next few days, could be a decent severe set up as well with the above average temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 16, 2017 Author Share Posted October 16, 2017 Current temp is 57 here, looks like a fairly cold night ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted October 17, 2017 Share Posted October 17, 2017 46F possibly some cats paw frost overnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 17, 2017 Author Share Posted October 17, 2017 Temp down to 47 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 17, 2017 Author Share Posted October 17, 2017 Current temp is 42 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted October 17, 2017 Share Posted October 17, 2017 Soon as the winds & dp dropped off, the temp plummeted. Am glad I covered some potted tender plants. Bottomed out (so far) just barely @ 39F with current dp 35. There are spots within a couple miles of here in low-lying parts of Wyndmoor showing 35F. I think this was progged to be the coldest part of the week and it is supposed to slowly warm up the rest of the week. This will start some foliage color changes on plants/trees that haven't started showing fall colors yet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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