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E PA/NJ/DE Fall 2017 OBS Thread


Rtd208

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What a beautiful Autumnal day....I friggin love to use that word any chance I get. With today's climate splits of 60.9/52.1 in Chester County we will only finish at exactly 1.0 degrees above normal...despite the heat island PHL OBS...with today's even cooler than forecasted splits this will only be the 57th warmest September in the last 124 years of NWS coop records in the County...an only slightly above average September despite what many will see as reality out of the PHL heat island.

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14 hours ago, RedSky said:

Can anybody a three week period this dry? 0.0" I was thinking this reminds me of Sept-Oct 97 

 

My grass went from one looking the best it has in years in early September to almost completely burned out with the next cut likely being the last until the leaves are a down. Looks like maybe early next week we may get a soaking rain but this week should be another one that is completely dry.

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3 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

What the hell is up w/the chance of 80F+ for Philly and local burbs from Thurs - Sun?  I'm done w/80+. Where are some upper 50s for highs???

"Indian Summer" or so they say.  My lows have been in the mid-upper 40s the last 3 days and some of my shrubs are starting to transition to their fall colors. I suppose you can't ask for any better - highs in the 70s, lows in the 40s/50s, near perfect blue sky. But I still had to get out there today to water.  I am seeing the possibility for some GOM action running some rain up here next week but we shall see.

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27 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

"Indian Summer" or so they say.  My lows have been in the mid-upper 40s the last 3 days and some of my shrubs are starting to transition to their fall colors. I suppose you can't ask for any better - highs in the 70s, lows in the 40s/50s, near perfect blue sky. But I still had to get out there today to water.  I am seeing the possibility for some GOM action running some rain up here next week but we shall see.

Starting Thurs the average high dips into the 60s (69, of course)....that's why I'm getting a little pissed at temps approaching/surpassing 80. Hell, I don't even want to see 70s any longer. And yes, some rain would be nice. 

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On 10/3/2017 at 4:55 PM, Birds~69 said:

What the hell is up w/the chance of 80F+ for Philly and local burbs from Thurs - Sun?  I'm done w/80+. Where are some upper 50s for highs???

Careful what you wish for in October if you like winter weather during the actual winter months. There is a direct correlation between colder than normal Octobers and generally mild winters vs mild Octobers and harsh winters. Go back thru these forums in the just the past 6-8 years and you will see for yourself. Not failproof, but there is some correlation between what happens in October and what the winter will 'generally' be like in our area. I certainly dont want to see a single flake of snow nor a ping of sleet this month.....that is usually the kiss of death. 

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43 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Careful what you wish for in October if you like winter weather during the actual winter months. There is a direct correlation between colder than normal Octobers and generally mild winters vs mild Octobers and harsh winters. Go back thru these forums in the just the past 6-8 years and you will see for yourself. Not failproof, but there is some correlation between what happens in October and what the winter will 'generally' be like in our area. I certainly dont want to see a single flake of snow nor a ping of sleet this month.....that is usually the kiss of death. 

I knew a long time poster like yourself would mention this and I understand the October - winter correlation. And I don't want any snow/winter precip this month either. I just want normal which is 69 and here we are again shooting into the 80's. It's just seems like every time I think we've turn the page into Fall a burst of warm air screws it up....

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Didn't the met Rainshadow use to follow the correlation for October temperatures and the following winter? I remember a cooler than normal October(.5F>) has a greater probability for a cold winter but I could be wrong. But you don't want a very cool October(snow) that's doom.

 

 

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I knew a long time poster like yourself would mention this and I understand the October - winter correlation. And I don't want any snow/winter precip this month either. I just want normal which is 69 and here we are again shooting into the 80's. It's just seems like every time I think we've turn the page into Fall a burst of warm air screws it up....

La Nina climatology.

Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk

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Been fighting off legions of stink bugs standing wait around my doors for any chance to gain entry it's really become annoying. Yeah my theory that they see infrared explaining how they know to seek winter shelter inside has exploded. Lilbastards have one sole purpose to invade human households to torture us deep into winter.

 

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40 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

74F / DP 69F at 6:30am....tropical feel outside. Morning showers?

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I got in late last night after a family get-together/bbq (and yes the critters were out in full force) and looking out right now, some kind of rain happened between then and now.  It wasn't enough to tip the bucket but enough to wet the street and some of the sidewalks.  Am thinking it probably happened in the past hour.  I haven't had any measurable rain since Sept. 19th (trace) and before that had some Harvey remnants Sept. 13 which was just under 0.1".  The dust and pollen is thick. We do need a nice heavy rain to wash everything down.  That line seems to confirm categorical so I think it's game on this morning.  Edit to add - at least for round 1.  Remnant Nate is supposed to be round 2.

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20 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

I got in late last night after a family get-together/bbq (and yes the critters were out in full force) and looking out right now, some kind of rain happened between then and now.  It wasn't enough to tip the bucket but enough to wet the street and some of the sidewalks.  Am thinking it probably happened in the past hour.  I haven't had any measurable rain since Sept. 19th (trace) and before that had some Harvey remnants Sept. 13 which was just under 0.1".  The dust and pollen is thick. We do need a nice heavy rain to wash everything down.  That line seems to confirm categorical so I think it's game on this morning.  Edit to add - at least for round 1.  Remnant Nate is supposed to be round 2.

Same here....woke up around 4am and the ground was wet. No puddles, just enough the dampen/wet the ground. I wasn't expecting anything till this afternoon and onward. Kinda sucks because I was going to cut the grass this morning before the Eagles. Not now, everything is wet w/more showers not too far away.   

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2 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

Same here....woke up around 4am and the ground was wet. No puddles, just enough the dampen/wet the ground. I wasn't expecting anything till this afternoon and onward. Kinda sucks because I was going to cut the grass this morning before the Eagles. Not now, everything is wet w/more showers not too far away.   

Incoming! Rain has arrived.  Getting a shower right now and almost up to 0.1" already.  Thank God!  Temp 73F.

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