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E PA/NJ/DE Fall 2017 OBS Thread


Rtd208

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13 minutes ago, KamuSnow said:

Apparently there was a 4.4M centered in the Delaware bay - my monitor was shaking, and I was starting to think about getting out of the house when it subsided (lol now, but not at that moment).

Didn't feel anything up here in the hills of NW Philly.  I know that huge one from VA I felt when I was at work downtown by the river so I would have known the sensation.  From what I gathered from that 2011 VA one, not too many if any felt it up here but downtown got hit hard!   Also 47F here!

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18z GFS has 3 or 4 threats during the run yet shows perfectly just how we could get shutout in this pattern. Too far East and progressive, too far North, too dry too late developing, then brief moderation end of run walking the r/s line in SE PA. Nothing set in stone obviously just saying even in a textbook pattern it wont always produce. Need the right shortwave and right trajectory at the right time.

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54 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

Didn't feel anything up here in the hills of NW Philly.  I know that huge one from VA I felt when I was at work downtown by the river so I would have known the sensation.  From what I gathered from that 2011 VA one, not too many if any felt it up here but downtown got hit hard!   Also 47F here!

Didn't feel it here, and the 2011 was clearly felt.  I wonder if it was the same fault line?

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11 minutes ago, Paragon said:

Didn't feel it here, and the 2011 was clearly felt.  I wonder if it was the same fault line?

It doesn't appear to be on the same line as the VA one, which was abutting the Piedmont, and was situated between multiple faults. Since the rock is pretty solid all the way up the east coast, the VA one transmitted energy well up into NY at the time.  I saw that the one in Delaware was very shallow (5 miles deep) - https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us1000bjkn#executive

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5 hours ago, KamuSnow said:

I don't belong to any geology forums, so I'll post it here - just felt what sure seemed like some kind of tremor/light earthquake....at about 4:44 pm - lasted about 10 seconds. Oh, and 47F!

Felt the house shake and bed moved at 4:48pm very brief 1-2 seconds, had a phone call a minute later and told them i just had an earthquake they didn't believe me. 

The USGS initially reported a 5.1 but all the news stations were calling it a 4.1, then i think it was nbc weather girl said Delaware had a 5.8 in 2011 that did some damage and this one was much weaker - WRONG! their record is a 3.8

 

 

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Based off of the weeklies and the LR ensembles, my furnace and heating bills are going to get quite a workout thru the end of December at the very least. Overall cold pattern with brief transient warmups/moderation as the cold pattern keeps reloading. Looks like we get the cold....now attention turns to tracking shortwaves and seeing if we can get the two working in tandem to produce snow. Jury is still out on whether the pattern will produce or not. Cold/dry still a legit concern though I am leaning against a shutout attm.

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7 hours ago, Newman said:

Next weekend on Euro looks really close to something big. Almost a triple phase. Still plenty of time for this to go either way as its like 180hrs away. 12z GEFS had a bigger signal for a more amped shortwave for next weekend as well.

Yep..looks good.

**Probably should lock this thread and make the "E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2017-18 OBS Thread" the primary thread.

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