Hurricane Agnes Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 Sun is finally trying to pop out with just about 1 1/2 hours before sunset. lol Temp is 43F and that all-afternoon drizzle fest added another couple hundredths of an inch to my total to reach 0.30". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 14, 2017 Share Posted November 14, 2017 Looks blustery and cold Sunday with scattered snow showers region-wide. Here comes our transition to the -nao. Still watching 11/23-11/29 period for potential wintry weather as well. Ens have the ul pattern, a few ops starting to show surface reflections. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted November 16, 2017 Share Posted November 16, 2017 Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 16, 2017 Share Posted November 16, 2017 Clear pattern change taking shape on the ATL side of our world as ens and ops have been struggling and bouncing back and forth. West-based -NAO develops and looks to remain in place thru the next 10 days. However, big ticket EPO fades and is replaced with a trof over AK. Progressive PAC flow into Canada keeps flow transient under the NAO ridge with fluctuating temps in our neck of the woods. Cold front (trof), then rebound and AN for a few, cold front, rebound, wash rinse, repeat. I was mentioning elsewhere, if this were January, we could get away with a crap PAC look and a favorable ATL look, but this early into the season, they tend to negate one another. This *could* potentially throw a wrench into the "early and often" wintry chances I was feeling for early Decemeber but the jury is still out on that as the pattern change is still throwing fits into the LR stuff. The biggest plus we have going this season so far is early-season record blocking at high latitude on our side of the globe. If we continue to see this (even if it shifts and moves around) later into the season, we will get our chances as long as either the PAC, the ATL, or both are working for us. if both teleconnections fail, then it's game over. But again, with blockiness bouncing around, one would think if this feature hold, eventually we will get our chances. Just a matter of when. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 17, 2017 Author Share Posted November 17, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 17, 2017 Author Share Posted November 17, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 18, 2017 Share Posted November 18, 2017 Local forecast tonight- Patchy freezing fog after 4am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 26. Calm wind. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted November 18, 2017 Share Posted November 18, 2017 7 hours ago, RedSky said: Local forecast tonight- Patchy freezing fog after 4am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 26. Calm wind. lol We may have had pretty close to that here this morning. It actually bottomed out at 29F just after 4:30 and the dews were just a couple degrees below that in the upper 20s. Temp has been on the rise and currently 31F. Frost definitely out there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 18, 2017 Author Share Posted November 18, 2017 Current temp is 31 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 18, 2017 Share Posted November 18, 2017 46F and rain has moved in early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 19, 2017 Share Posted November 19, 2017 Really admiring the overall pattern as we head forward in the LR. Posted this in another subforum: https://r.tapatalk.com/shareLink?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww%2Eamericanwx%2Ecom%2Fbb%2Findex%2Ephp%3F%2Ftopic%2F50490-December-2017-Long-Range-Disco&share_tid=50490&share_fid=13197&share_type=tDecember 2017 Long Range Disco Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted November 19, 2017 Share Posted November 19, 2017 Almost 60F out there (57F @ post time) with light rain at the moment. Got 0.08" yesterday and currently at 0.18" @ post time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted November 19, 2017 Share Posted November 19, 2017 High for the day had apparently happened here around 1 am @ 59F and with ~6 am FROPA and wind gusts, temp is dropping. Down to 51 at post time and falling along with the dp (@42). Currently mostly cloudy and breezy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 19, 2017 Share Posted November 19, 2017 Thought it was ironic/funny that last night I made a post about how the LR has a nice look to it as we approach early Dec then BAM 6z GFS op spits out a potential 384 hr event on, yep, Dec 5......a date that holds alot of meaning to the veterans of wx tracking in the Mid Atl and NE. First true 384 hr digital snow threat of the season. Game mode - on :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted November 19, 2017 Share Posted November 19, 2017 10 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Thought it was ironic/funny that last night I made a post about how the LR has a nice look to it as we approach early Dec then BAM 6z GFS op spits out a potential 384 hr event on, yep, Dec 5......a date that holds alot of meaning to the veterans of wx tracking in the Mid Atl and NE. First true 384 hr digital snow threat of the season. Game mode - on :-) that storm is pretty much a lock on date alone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 20, 2017 Share Posted November 20, 2017 1 hour ago, The Iceman said: that storm is pretty much a lock on date alone Was wondering where you have been. I chalked it up to Flyer hockey letdown depression syndrome. Hackstol needs to switch the lines around. When your top line does 95% of the scoring, need to switch it up. Very depressing to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted November 20, 2017 Share Posted November 20, 2017 18 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Was wondering where you have been. I chalked it up to Flyer hockey letdown depression syndrome. Hackstol needs to switch the lines around. When your top line does 95% of the scoring, need to switch it up. Very depressing to watch. Most of my posting and model watching comes during work and it just so happens I've actually had to work over the last week I wasn't expecting the flyers to do much this year but jeez are they hard to watch at times. They have no direction at all. They can't decide whether they are in rebuild stage or contending for playoffs and the result is mediocrity. Coaches style is brutal too. They need to waive everyone over 25 besides giroux, voracek, and simmonds and just bring in the young guys. I don't mind losing but they lose, are boring, and are giving way too much ice time to veterans that aren't apart of the future. But hey at least we got the Eagles and Sixers! Both the GEFS and EPS want to keep us in a -NAO regime through day 16. Now that it has actually come to fruition, I tend to believe them when they show the -NAO relaxing a bit in the day 7-10 range before going back negative in the LR. There are two concerns I have but in the grand scheme of things, they are not too big of a deal as opposed to needing large scale changes. One is that this pattern is largely cold front with showers, 2-3 days of BN temps, a warm up for a day then rinse and repeat. That doesn't appear to be changing anytime soon. In that same breath, I don't really see any real threats on either ensemble which is a bit concerning. It mainly looks cool and dry. Now this can easily change in 16 days as we've seen the GFS pop a storm on the 5th and lose it but it is a slight concern at the moment. As of right now, I think our best shot at snow will come from a clipper in this pattern. Looking into the long range, the pattern really tends to support this. Would not be surprised if we do not receive any warning snows in december, but do get a few 1-3 or 2-4" WWA snows from clippers. The good news is that it is looking like cold air should be plentiful and we should have a long term -NAO set up. With those 2 things in place, it is difficult to be pessimistic about this upcoming period. I am concerned about the lack of an active storm track though at the moment. Let's hope we see some fantasy storms in the next couple of days. rain or snow really isn't important, just want to see some type of precipitation event beyond showers associated with a front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 West-based -NAO taking shape and will help keep a trof over the Northeast for the next 5-7 days with reinforcing shots of BN every few days in the period sandwiched between normal/seasonal stuff. Nothing major on the horizon as the flow under the block is quite fast with nothing to really cause the flow to slow down and amplify significantly. Good cold shot coming second part of the weekend with some possible snow showers around Sun-Mon. Wave *could* finally amplify enough late in that period to toss more moisture into the region as blocking/ridging repositions itself from Davis Strait to SE of Greenland in the Western Atlantic. Farther into the LR the ensembles continue to show some reflection of a weak ridge in the NAO region so that teleconnection looks neutral to negative at times. Biggest takeaway I see out past 8 days on the ensembles is the development of a strong mean ridge positioned along the West Coast that extends way North into British Columbia with some nosing into the arctic circle. That leads to a mean trof in the Plains into the Eastern US downstream. Decent look if you like chances for cold and BN temps as the flow into the North central US is coming straight out of Siberia it appears. How deep the trof gets and how cold it gets in our area will be a direct function of the strength and location of the +PNA/-EPO ridge developing during the period. Might not be a coastal storm pattern brewing but certainly has a cold look. Has more of a clipper look to my eyes but we are looking 10+ days out and only pattern generalizations are evident, not specifics. General rule usually is get the cold in first, worry about moisture thereafter. Suffice it to say, Ive seen worse LR looks and I am getting eager to get December underway! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 The old winter time waves breaking on the beach pattern looks like it will continue for a couple more weeks - cold front in couple days of chill mild up rinse repeat. In a way it resembles the general NW flow last summer that kept away prolonged heat. We need some southern jet connection to kick in or its going to be boring cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted November 23, 2017 Share Posted November 23, 2017 Latest 18z GFS. Very, very boring weather coming up. Barely any precipitation to speak of, at least going on this model run, for the next week and a half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted November 23, 2017 Share Posted November 23, 2017 Happy Thanksgiving to all! Paul Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 23, 2017 Share Posted November 23, 2017 Upper 30's day half the time Christmas isn't this cold me like it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted November 23, 2017 Share Posted November 23, 2017 2 hours ago, RedSky said: Upper 30's day half the time Christmas isn't this cold me like it Likewise. Hopefully in a month we'll have fresh snow on the ground... Happy Thanksgiving to everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 24, 2017 Share Posted November 24, 2017 Hope everyone had a great and happy Thanksgiving!Enjoying the BN weather for now....it at least feels like the holidays. Pattern overall has continued to be progressive and quick-moving across the nation not allowing for any significant amplification in the longwave pattern. High latitude blocking has obviously allowed for some cold air seepage at times around the general transient flow at our latitude but again, no major buckling of the pattern, no blue Northers, no slow moving coastal storms, but on a positive no major AN ridging either, so there's that ;-)General same pattern should continue thru the medium range with BN temps sandwiched between seasonal to slightly AN days. Transient cold snap early next week....maybe we see a flake or two as streamers flow off the GL Monday. HL ridging relocates to S and E of Greenland with an evident WAR as we enter December. However, the AO looks neutral to negative so that would keep colder air close-by anyway. Not sure how strong the SE Ridge becomes but there is evidence that tries to flex as a trough out West takes shape. Meanwhile ridging across Western Canada attempts to emerge creating a split flow to the pattern out West. There is alot of uncertainty as we head into early December with ensembles all showing various anomalies to these teleconnections I mentioned. Needless to say, the strength, location, and timing of all these features will determine real-weather for our region as we move into week 1 of December and forward. Lots of volatility D+7 thru D+15 as we could easily end up on either side of N temps. Guidance showing some hints of a storm centered around Dec 1 as the flow slows slightly in response to the WAR but cold air seems lacking for now. Euro op is aggressive in developing a closed mid latitude cyclone coming out of the midwest and off the Hatteras Coast.Next period that has my interest is Dec 5-Dec 10 for some sort of longwave activity moving thru potentially reflected as another mid-latitude storm with colder air around.Again, decent uncertainty in the LR as there are several pieces of the longwave pattern repositioning themselves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted November 26, 2017 Share Posted November 26, 2017 42F Boring weather. Close to 60F Wednesday.....blah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 26, 2017 Share Posted November 26, 2017 42F Boring weather. Close to 60F Wednesday.....blah.Enjoy the relaxation in the pattern! Ens all suggest a SE Ridge flex and moderation in temps thru the first week of December. Maybe a chillier few days tossed in the mix but generally N - AN stuff for temps. All (and I do mean nearly unanimous across all ens) signs point to more favorable pattern during week 2 Dec with -NAO/-AO/-EPO with a cold phase MJO progression. Definitely a much colder look after week 1 December just not sure yet if we will get moisture to cooperate or we are looking cold/dry. You know the saying, get the cold air established first, worry about moisture second. Positive signs ahead after this pattern reload/relaxation period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 Beautiful day High 52.8/32.5 (+1.1 abv normal) Wxsim has next 2 days also into the 50's with 53 tomorrow and 51 on Wednesday. Only 7 below freezing mornings so far this season. Normal through end of November is 16 such days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 Big ticket pattern change being advertised after Dec 7 give or take a day. Storm/front rolls thru and helps lock in a - NAO around that time. AO looks to dip negative. +PNA ridge looks solid with a favorable looking EPO block developing. All the key teleconnection indices are where we like to see them when hoping for a wintry weather pattern. However, even with a perfect textbook look it doesnt always mean snowstorm, though some of our past storms have certainly come out of this pattern. We will have to get there first, then start seeing what kind of shortwave catalysts we have in play. Becoming clearer anyway that we are headed towards a favorable winter-time look on the ensemble means, the lr ops, and the weeklies after December 7ish. Early and often theme still in play......higher chance than normal for snow on the ground December 25. Thats my story and Im sticking to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 Nice post Steve - agree with higher than normal chance of a White Christmas (we average a 25% chance here in Chester County) - last being in 2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 12z euro op run is (correct me if Im wrong) the first euro run of the season to show digital accumulating snowfall for our region. Granted it's 240 hours and probably wont verify but a minor event modeled nonetheless. It's go time ladies and gents......let the games begin! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.