Birds~69 Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: What else? It's only mid November. Good signs for future tho. And beats the boring weather we've had. That's my logic. Beats a lame ass pattern and may give us hope entering winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormman96 Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 13 hours ago, Birds~69 said: Tonight. My prediction: Temps: Dec -2 Jan -1 Feb +2 Mar -1 Total snowfall (Philly) 24" - 30" *Glenn throws a curve ball here and there so who knows... Well way off. He is going for 12-18 total snowfall. An no big storms at all this winter. An warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 4 minutes ago, Stormman96 said: Well way off. He is going for 12-18 total snowfall. An no big storms at all this winter. An warm Doesn't mean it's correct but yep. Looks like hell..here it is: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormman96 Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 Just now, Birds~69 said: Doesn't mean it's correct but yep. Looks like hell..here it is: Pretty gutsy call saying no big storms at all. One big storm an his forecast is toast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 Just now, Stormman96 said: Pretty gutsy call saying no big storms at all. One big storm an his forecast is toast One year he "revised" his forecast in Jan (which is lame) because he went bold and it wasn't panning out. Hopefully it's the reverse this year going from limited snow/cold to some/much more snow/cold. But yeah, one storm could screw him over big time.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 15 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: One year he "revised" his forecast in Jan (which is lame) because he went bold and it wasn't panning out. Hopefully it's the reverse this year going from limited snow/cold to some/much more snow/cold. But yeah, one storm could screw him over big time.... Very La Ninaish outlook Weather World virtually identical. It could bust the opposite of last years all these are shots in the dark, i can't see a third straight very warm winter not going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 13 minutes ago, RedSky said: Very La Ninaish outlook Weather World virtually identical. It could bust the opposite of last years all these are shots in the dark, i can't see a third straight very warm winter not going to happen. Yeah, it's a crap shot this year. Glenn went super conservative...I would have went about average/slightly above. (20" - 25" / 22" - 28") Let's see what Cecily/Accu Weather call for... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 That's my logic. Beats a lame ass pattern and may give us hope entering winter...Doctor No taketh away. Interesting teaser. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 Cant just say "its a La Nina so here's what will happen". 95-96 was a moderate Nina much like current and the warm snowless calls were a complete bust. I have that season as one of my analogs for a reason. Not expecting record setting stuff but an active pattern with plenty of threats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 We aren't really in a moderate nina though, hell it's barely a weak nina right now. Everything is being based on the nina strengthening but it really has not strengthened as quick as projected. I think we stay in a weak nina which is why I left 95-96 off in my forecast but the active pattern with plenty of threats is common in a lot of weak nina's. I wouldn't be surprised if Glenn is right as I think we are going to be on the border between rain and snow a lot this winter but if we are on the cooler side of things, which based on the Canadian snow pack this year may happen, his forecast is toast. I don't like the warm part of the forecast at all though. I don't see that being the case anywhere outside of a stretch or two. Volatile is my theme of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 FOX29 (Kathy Orr) winter outlook tonight @10... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 ...and it looks like 6abc/accu weather (Cecily Tynan) winter outlook is Thurs @ 11pm. I don't like Randy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 00z EPS looks beautiful in the long range. big time -nao/-ao set up. Trough locked in over the east in the day 10-15 range. GFS ensembles show the -NAO setting up around day 7 and being locked in through day 15.. very encouraging signs for an early start to winter. let's hope this isn't transient and is a long term pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 32.2 low Just killed a mosquito in the bathroom and had one last night in my bedroom, not for much longer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 2 hours ago, The Iceman said: 00z EPS looks beautiful in the long range. big time -nao/-ao set up. Trough locked in over the east in the day 10-15 range. GFS ensembles show the -NAO setting up around day 7 and being locked in through day 15.. very encouraging signs for an early start to winter. let's hope this isn't transient and is a long term pattern. If EPS is right then something like the 6z GFS could be reality Turkey week, deep winter like with opportunities for white I like. Hello late November 2005 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 November 11-12 Allentown forecast to shatter it's record lows by 7 and 5 degrees that just doesn't happen anymore wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 24 minutes ago, RedSky said: November 11-12 Allentown forecast to shatter it's record lows by 7 and 5 degrees that just doesn't happen anymore wow That's a shiet load. Even 3 is very substantial... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 Here in Levittown we have yet to get a frost or freeze but are projected to possibly hit the teens tomorrow night. I don't know why we don't have a freeze watch like the other counties in the area because we haven't reached 32 yet. Unless mt holly is counting northern bucks hitting freezing as meaning the entire county. Doesn't make sense to me. Still an impressive cold shot for this early in the year. KTTN is looking like it will shatter the record low of 25 saturday morning by 4 or 5 degrees. The models leading up to the -NAO shift are dropping a lot of snow up in eastern canada which should give us plenty of cold air to work with going into december. Things are for once looking good for early winter. I'd rather have a winter that hits early and often and fades early than one where we are waiting for a good pattern to set up until late january like in years past. I hope 12/5 is lucky again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 For the younger crowd that doesn't remember 2005-06 14" snow before the first day of winter 10" Dec 5th, wicked arctic front day before Thanksgiving 1" snow with that. Then a total absence of winter for 4 1/2 weeks starting Christmas eve, popup thunderstorms in January, 18" blizzard in early February the ultimate crazy winter to date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 58 minutes ago, RedSky said: For the younger crowd that doesn't remember 2005-06 14" snow before the first day of winter 10" Dec 5th, wicked arctic front day before Thanksgiving 1" snow with that. Then a total absence of winter for 4 1/2 weeks starting Christmas eve, popup thunderstorms in January, 18" blizzard in early February the ultimate crazy winter to date. I'm pretty sure that was my first year on eastern at the ripe age of 15... man how time flies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 28 minutes ago, The Iceman said: I'm pretty sure that was my first year on eastern at the ripe age of 15... man how time flies 2003-2004 for myself. I was on the Eagles board/forum with a snow potential for one of their games. Rob22 linked me/the Eagles board to Eastern for a better discussion....hope he's alright these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 10, 2017 Share Posted November 10, 2017 We aren't really in a moderate nina though, hell it's barely a weak nina right now. Everything is being based on the nina strengthening but it really has not strengthened as quick as projected. I think we stay in a weak nina which is why I left 95-96 off in my forecast but the active pattern with plenty of threats is common in a lot of weak nina's. I wouldn't be surprised if Glenn is right as I think we are going to be on the border between rain and snow a lot this winter but if we are on the cooler side of things, which based on the Canadian snow pack this year may happen, his forecast is toast. I don't like the warm part of the forecast at all though. I don't see that being the case anywhere outside of a stretch or two. Volatile is my theme of winter. We may be looking at a different enso regions then. I am focusing on the east based la nina which is in a moderate phase much like 95-96, not the blended regions which reflect as weak as you said but can be misleading. Eastern regions have proven to be more influential on our weather. Eta: nino 3 (east) is in a moderate phase Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 10, 2017 Share Posted November 10, 2017 00z EPS looks beautiful in the long range. big time -nao/-ao set up. Trough locked in over the east in the day 10-15 range. GFS ensembles show the -NAO setting up around day 7 and being locked in through day 15.. very encouraging signs for an early start to winter. let's hope this isn't transient and is a long term pattern. Looks like it may have some sticking power if you believe some of the LR stuff. These looks have the "active early season" train gaining steam :-) Add the GEFS showing a +PNA developing. Whether that feature holds like the -NAO looks to or is transient is tbd. All promising signs as we head into late November tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 10, 2017 Share Posted November 10, 2017 I'd rather have a winter that hits early and often and fades early than one where we are waiting for a good pattern to set up until late january like in years past. ^^^^thisIts like the Flyers waiting until March to get their act together past few years......better this year. Start early and cruise later :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted November 10, 2017 Share Posted November 10, 2017 14 hours ago, Birds~69 said: FOX29 (Kathy Orr) winter outlook tonight @10... Well, better than Glenn's but still not great. Here we go... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 10, 2017 Share Posted November 10, 2017 Well, better than Glenn's but still not great. Here we go...22-30" here.....I'll take it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted November 10, 2017 Share Posted November 10, 2017 19 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 26 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Well, better than Glenn's but still not great. Here we go... 22-30" here.....I'll take it! We're borderline 15"-22" / 22"-30". I'll go with 19"-25"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 10, 2017 Share Posted November 10, 2017 You automatically can throw out that map because it neglects the Monmouth County bullseye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 10, 2017 Share Posted November 10, 2017 Let's hope Kamu got the boiler bubblin' the arctic air is blitzkrieging through PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted November 10, 2017 Share Posted November 10, 2017 Howling winds, 38F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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