Ralph Wiggum Posted November 1, 2017 Share Posted November 1, 2017 We were talking about that today - so far about 30% of the trees have lost most or all of their leaves, then maybe a few with mixed colors (sweet gum and tulip poplars), and many more still mostly green. That's okay, saving the good stuff for later in December is my optimistic viewpoint.Same thing Im leaning towards right now....'normal' start to winter towards 2nd week in December. Im unclear what others consider an 'early start'.....I was expecting some chances by late November originally which could still happen but leaning against that at the moment. Weekend system tossed a huge wrench into things via strong +nao headed our way.Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 1, 2017 Share Posted November 1, 2017 38.8F keep dropping! die bugs die! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted November 1, 2017 Share Posted November 1, 2017 53 minutes ago, RedSky said: 38.8F keep dropping! die bugs die! They know where the heat is. Nice seasonal look by the way ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 1, 2017 Share Posted November 1, 2017 4 minutes ago, KamuSnow said: They know where the heat is. Nice seasonal look by the way ! I am Pai Mei snow oh my 37.2 should get hard frost on the pumpkin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 1, 2017 Share Posted November 1, 2017 35.8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 1, 2017 Author Share Posted November 1, 2017 Current temp down to 37 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted November 1, 2017 Share Posted November 1, 2017 36F low so far this morning. Currently 37F (dp 33F) but could drop again before sunrise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted November 1, 2017 Share Posted November 1, 2017 Made it down to 35F sometime after midnight, a new low for the season. Up to 38F now, looks like clouds rolling in was the culprit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted November 1, 2017 Share Posted November 1, 2017 Just now, KamuSnow said: Made it down to 35F sometime after midnight, a new low for the season. Up to 38F now, looks like clouds rolling in was the culprit. Yup. Cloud deck rolled in and I'm up to 38F now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted November 1, 2017 Share Posted November 1, 2017 Daily Model round up. GFS gives our SNE friends their first real snow while we would have a shot at some backend mood flakes verbatim. North and west a better chance of that. Euro and CMC also have the storm but it is slower and warmer. Looking our first real cold shot is coming next weekend. Ensembles are hinting strongly at it. Pattern in the long range actually looks pretty good.-EPO being depicted on the ensembles. -NAO is trying to get established as well. All in all, the 00z suite looks promising in the long range for a good pattern to be set up for the 2nd half of the month into December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 1, 2017 Share Posted November 1, 2017 33.3 low, tomatoes still alive. The DC metro growing season has reached mby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted November 2, 2017 Share Posted November 2, 2017 Signals for the Atlantic continue to look promising over the second half of the month as the EPS and GFS Ens continue to point towards a negative AO and NAO setting up. Right now it looks slightly east based but I think just establishing a -NAO is the most important thing. One thing to note though is that NAO forecasting the last few months in the ensembles has been absolutely awful so while the signs look promising now, definitely need to see some consistency. They've had a tendency to keep pushing back the changes shown. Still would rather have that than it showing no change in the long range right now. So even if you push back the arrival of the -NAO by a week or 2, that would put us at the end of the month and early December which is exactly what we want. Also it looks very likely we will have a -EPO for the foreseeable future. Heights in the N PAC near the Aleutians look record breaking or well above normal. However, the PNA looks negative to strongly negative for the foreseeable future as well. Not many signs of it going positive on the ensembles. Only thing is is looks to rise from strongly negative to slightly negative towards mid month. Signs definitely don't looks bad though for December as of now but at the same time they don't scream great either. These next 2 weeks should give us a much better idea. I'm thinking right now though that December will be volatile if the PNA stays negative but NAO and AO also go negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 2, 2017 Author Share Posted November 2, 2017 Current temp is 74 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted November 2, 2017 Share Posted November 2, 2017 On 11/1/2017 at 10:46 AM, The Iceman said: Daily Model round up. GFS gives our SNE friends their first real snow while we would have a shot at some backend mood flakes verbatim. North and west a better chance of that. Euro and CMC also have the storm but it is slower and warmer. Looking our first real cold shot is coming next weekend. Ensembles are hinting strongly at it. Pattern in the long range actually looks pretty good.-EPO being depicted on the ensembles. -NAO is trying to get established as well. All in all, the 00z suite looks promising in the long range for a good pattern to be set up for the 2nd half of the month into December. Accu-Weather super long range for Christmas eve/Christmas...it's a start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 2, 2017 Share Posted November 2, 2017 LR EPS/GEFS among major teleconnection progs not looking very promising thru Thanksgiving. Overall flow across the lower 48 is about as progressive a look as you can get aside from minor transient trof/ridging here and there. Majority of amplification is occurring over Western Alaska, positively tilted troffing well off the west coast into the PAC, and decnt ridging out into the Western Atlantic. Atlantic looks about as bad as one would want to see in the extended this time of year. Western Atlantic Ridge is flaring up and trying to become a prominent player yet again this season. Little to no blocking over the N Pole region (+AO) and a general -PNA rules the day with, as I stated, a general progressive pattern overall. Much too early to be looking at the EPO but that feature looks fairly neutral attm with the Western Alaskan ridge positively oriented and the mean subsequent trof setting up in Western Canada with transient visits into the NW US. Flat Southern and Central US ridge remains in place with brief flexing of the SE Ridge at times. We might see a brief trof visiting the NE US over the next several weeks but this feature will be transient and while those days will feel relatively cold, it looks like the general theme is N to well AN temps......so when we are in the 70s for a few days then hits a normal high temp it will feel relatively 'chilly' but will merely be seasonable. I mentioned this about 3-4 weeks ago here that the featured terms this year would be "progressive" and "transient", however I thought at that time we would get off to a better start and see these players later into the winter not as we head into November. The biggest player was the Phillippe/Nor'easter debacle of a pattern shifter last weekend. With the way the ridge across the South Central and SE appears to be setting up, we could potentially head into a SWFE type of pattern as we enter late November/early December but more on that later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted November 3, 2017 Share Posted November 3, 2017 Ralph, I'm not sure if you have just been looking at old runs or what but the ensembles definitely do not show what you've described through Thanksgiving. In fact over the last 24 hours the runs all show favorable height rises in all of the spots we want. Pattern looks progressive through day 8-9 then the ensembles all hint at a -nao/-ao/ and a slightly - PNA that is rising after day 10. Now whether you belive the models are being too quick in this change is another thing but they do not show a +NAO/AO/-PNA progressive pattern through Thanksgiving, that just isn't true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 3, 2017 Share Posted November 3, 2017 5 hours ago, The Iceman said: Ralph, I'm not sure if you have just been looking at old runs or what but the ensembles definitely do not show what you've described through Thanksgiving. In fact over the last 24 hours the runs all show favorable height rises in all of the spots we want. Pattern looks progressive through day 8-9 then the ensembles all hint at a -nao/-ao/ and a slightly - PNA that is rising after day 10. Now whether you belive the models are being too quick in this change is another thing but they do not show a +NAO/AO/-PNA progressive pattern through Thanksgiving, that just isn't true. I think you are misreading what I posted. I stated the pattern (+AO/-PNA) rules the day (current). Didnt say that is 100% locked in thru Thanksgiving at all. What I did say was that the pattern looks quite progressive/transient thru later in the month. The EPO, while based solely off the indices, is currently strong negative, BUT it is displaced and will eventually turn neutral and not be a player as it currently is not in our area. It just isn't a player right now as you suggested in an earlier post. We are almost 80 degrees with a -EPO teleconnection off the charts. I dont care what the models say or what the indices say.....if features are displaced or aligned in an awkward fashion it will not prove favorable for us downstream. Couple this with a split flow around the ridge and there is a strong PAC flow keeping things fast-moving and Pacific air AN temps. Not arguing you, I just dont see any of the features you mention locking in for any substantial time frame. Progressive. Btw, the ens are bouncing back and forth with the "favorable height rises where we want". Could this spell a pattern change in a few weeks? Possibly, but again, I dont see it right now. This is essentially where we've been much of the past several years......LR teases, little favorable high lat blocking, transient pattern, and many D+10 teases with the football being pulled out from under our feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 3, 2017 Author Share Posted November 3, 2017 Another warm day. Current temp is 74 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 3, 2017 Share Posted November 3, 2017 Looks like a few days of BN temps centered around D+7. Maybe this can be the beginnings of a gradual step-down as we approach mid-month and we can gradually erode this AN stuff? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 4, 2017 Share Posted November 4, 2017 12z GFS - welcome to new Venus no cold shot next week and roast turkey November hopefully not a trend and just one brain dead run lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted November 4, 2017 Share Posted November 4, 2017 At least it finally feels like October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 4, 2017 Share Posted November 4, 2017 Euro not Venus gets us that badly needed freeze late next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 Taking a stroll/walk and stuff moved in...damp. 49F... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 EPS, GEFS, and major teleconnection indices in cahoots D+10 onward. Could be a good indication of a pattern change coming second half of November. Perhaps the less-than-stellar pattern brought on by Phillippe will not have seasonal staying power. This is significant as a shift to a -AO and a step back from the neg PNA would put us back into a decent early winter season (read: early December) pattern with some potential for wintry weather. We will see how it plays out.....IF the post Phillippe pattern maintains its hold, the early winter forecasts are toast imo. However, if the potential pattern shift Nov 14-21 can start taking steps back then we negate the current lackluster pattern and the decent early December calls are back in play. Just my random musings for now.Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 Been many 2005 analogs appearing increasing the odds for some early winter cold and snow chances Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 6, 2017 Share Posted November 6, 2017 GEFS in the LR have a nice look with a pattern change still popping up during the Nov 18-22 period give or take. Nicely positioned -NAO, neg tilted mean trof extending from NW Territories to the East Coast, some signs of weak ridging out west but not much so I would say the PNA look is more neutral. All we can hope for right now is the pattern change and THIS (I believe Iceman alluded to this pattern some) is the start of the look that we want to see if we want to get this season off to a good start in early December. We'll know soon enough if this is another Lucy holding the football teaser type of LR forecasting year yet again or something different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted November 6, 2017 Share Posted November 6, 2017 Glenn's long range/winter forecast Wednesday @ 11pm.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 Tonight Rain likely, possibly mixing with snow after 9pm, then gradually ending. Cloudy, with a low around 35. North wind around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Little or no snow accumulation expected. First mention of snow for my area of the season! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 37.3 for the AM low in East Nantmeal and 42.9 in Sea Isle City...would not be surprised to see a few wet flakes mixing in later tonight above 650 ft in Chesco.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 1 hour ago, Dakota said: That is really quite extraordinary; since even Avoca @ 930' averages between 9 & 10 days per year when the mercury cracks 90 F... Possible explanation=trees. The temperature readings are from Avoca airport a large open area, my sensor under the forest tree line here registers lower than the Quakertown airport. The micro climate effect is largest in full sun summer conditions when daytime temps at the local airport are usually several degrees higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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