rainsucks Posted October 11, 2017 Share Posted October 11, 2017 2 hours ago, Stebo said: Actually looking at the longer range MJO, going into next month the change might come sooner than I originally thought, especially if the MJO takes up a position in phase 5 at a high magnitude like some of the current projections show. The MJO was in its cold phase during the Feb torch... I see zero reasoning for a cold Nov right now. Cold Dec, I could see though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainsucks Posted October 11, 2017 Share Posted October 11, 2017 Also, why would you want to waste all the cold in Nov? So pointless lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 11, 2017 Share Posted October 11, 2017 Just now, rainsucks said: The MJO was in its cold phase during the Feb torch... I see zero reasoning for a cold Nov right now. Cold Dec, I could see though. I do see reasoning especially if a strong jet from Pacific comes in and produces a major system, there will be a cold push behind that system that will produce a cooler final few days of October into November combine this with the MJO projection. Sure it was in a cold phase with the Feb torch but using an aberration to the mean isn't going to play here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 11, 2017 Share Posted October 11, 2017 1 minute ago, rainsucks said: Also, why would you want to waste all the cold in Nov? So pointless lol. It can snow in November... This isn't Dallas or Nashville. Also who said the only cold of the winter is coming in November, you might want to check yourself a bit here since you clearly don't know what you are talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainsucks Posted October 11, 2017 Share Posted October 11, 2017 6 minutes ago, Stebo said: It can snow in November... This isn't Dallas or Nashville. Also who said the only cold of the winter is coming in November, you might want to check yourself a bit here since you clearly don't know what you are talking about. cold ≠ snow. Also, any appreciable amount of snow in Nov is very rare for most of this subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 11, 2017 Share Posted October 11, 2017 Just now, rainsucks said: cold ≠ snow. Also, any appreciable amount of snow in Nov is very rare for most of this subforum. Obviously with the first part, the second part you are wrong about, signed day before Thanksgiving 2004. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted October 11, 2017 Share Posted October 11, 2017 November is the onset of winter. Appreciable snow is rare but some snow is common. November always makes me think of bare trees with scattered leaves clinging in spots, charcoal, sometimes billowy gray skies with a few sunny days to showcase the low sun angle, and the first blasts of the winter to come. Sometimes October manages flakes but Nov is usually the first squalls and the first measurable snow. We don't need "cold in winter to get snow. We do need "cold" in November to get snow. I don't think of it as wasting cold, if it does in fact turn cold in November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted October 11, 2017 Share Posted October 11, 2017 More rain on the way to Northwest Ohio for the overnight hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 11, 2017 Share Posted October 11, 2017 I would like to post this here. I hope that Michsnowfreak and some of the rest of you can appreciate this snowy ash tree. Things have been in a wet, cool phase in Colorado since the Great Lakes region started in on the 90 degree heat phase in September. Fortunately, the roads were not slippery and snow-covered yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 11, 2017 Share Posted October 11, 2017 2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said: November is the onset of winter. Appreciable snow is rare but some snow is common. November always makes me think of bare trees with scattered leaves clinging in spots, charcoal, sometimes billowy gray skies with a few sunny days to showcase the low sun angle, and the first blasts of the winter to come. Sometimes October manages flakes but Nov is usually the first squalls and the first measurable snow. We don't need "cold in winter to get snow. We do need "cold" in November to get snow. I don't think of it as wasting cold, if it does in fact turn cold in November. Appreciable snow in November is very common in areas that receive Lake Effect. Some of our biggest events have occurred in November. As a Lake Effect nut, does Michigan have any documentation of events each winter like KBUF has? If they don't they definitely should get it, I love looking back at the major events we've had. http://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=2016-2017&event=A Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted October 11, 2017 Share Posted October 11, 2017 I picked up 1.14" of rain earlier today. The models struggled a bit with the second surge of rain, going back and forth on whether or not we would get hit by it. Ultimately, it turned up to the east, into Cyclone's area. I was just hoping to see a inch, so I'm happy. This boosts my October total to 2.75", already more than the last two full months, combined. The weekend system could drop another 1-2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted October 11, 2017 Share Posted October 11, 2017 19 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: I picked up 1.14" of rain earlier today. The models struggled a bit with the second surge of rain, going back and forth on whether or not we would get hit by it. Ultimately, it turned up to the east, into Cyclone's area. I was just hoping to see a inch, so I'm happy. This boosts my October total to 2.75", already more than the last two full months, combined. The weekend system could drop another 1-2". Easily. I am actually interested in some heavy rain potential due to anomalously high PWAT values and what seems to be a uninterrupted feed from the gulf. Especially given that the orientation of precip amounts on the models would suggest that we could have training thunderstorm activity. Although where this sets up can not be pinned at this range given the more mesoscale nature of the matter. Of course there is also a potential severe weather aspect with more than adequate deep layer shear values, although this is already being discussed elsewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 11, 2017 Share Posted October 11, 2017 Decent amount of rain next 7 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 11, 2017 Share Posted October 11, 2017 Hallelujah finally a good soaking. First 1"+ soaker since way back on July 22. Picked up 1.64" so far, with most of that in the past 5hrs. Heard some distant rumbles of thunder a few times earlier. EDIT: Finished with 1.79". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted October 11, 2017 Share Posted October 11, 2017 Fall colors near peak at my house, colors not as vibrant this year probably due to lower precipitation and warmer temps the past month or so. There are a few spots of nice color but have sen it way better in past years. Should be seeing are first flakes in the next couple weeks based on history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted October 11, 2017 Share Posted October 11, 2017 Nice soaking rain overnight, everything needed it. Was finally able to cut my grass. It hadn't been cut since the second week of July. Trees around here are everything from vibrant green, to bare with lots of colors between. Can't remember seeing anything like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 11, 2017 Author Share Posted October 11, 2017 Solid rain. Ended up with about 1.25", which was actually toward the lower end of totals in LOT. Some spots in LOT picked up well over 2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted October 11, 2017 Share Posted October 11, 2017 16 hours ago, rainsucks said: cold ≠ snow. Also, any appreciable amount of snow in Nov is very rare for most of this subforum. 16 hours ago, Stebo said: Obviously with the first part, the second part you are wrong about, signed day before Thanksgiving 2004. Yep, that was a good one, but 3X as much hit my place just 2 yrs ago 11-21-15. Yeah, nobody gets snow in Nov. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 11, 2017 Author Share Posted October 11, 2017 The November snowstorm thread I created a couple years ago. Plenty of examples over the years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted October 11, 2017 Share Posted October 11, 2017 November 21st 2015. 17 Inches at my house. My biggest storm in Howell since I moved there 27 years ago. ...LIVINGSTON COUNTY... BRIGHTON M 11.5 14 42.53N 83.78W HARTLAND M 14.0 16 42.66N 83.75W 1 NE HOWELL M 15.5 13 42.62N 83.92W HARTLAND M 16.0 M 42.66N 83.75W HOWELL M 16.8 20 42.61N 83.94W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 11, 2017 Share Posted October 11, 2017 6 hours ago, Harry Perry said: Nice soaking rain overnight, everything needed it. Was finally able to cut my grass. It hadn't been cut since the second week of July. Trees around here are everything from vibrant green, to bare with lots of colors between. Can't remember seeing anything like it. Maybe some trees have their color changes more controlled by warm/cold temperatures, but others are controlled more by the daylight hours (independent of weather.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 11, 2017 Share Posted October 11, 2017 3 hours ago, Hoosier said: The November snowstorm thread I created a couple years ago. Plenty of examples over the years Well this obviously trounced the thought that there is no appreciable snow in November, such a ludicrous statement to begin with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted October 11, 2017 Share Posted October 11, 2017 Can't get enough of the beautiful weather. Temps the past few days have been seasonal with highs in the mid-50's and lows around 30. The potential exists late Sunday night for the first snow flakes, with grassy areas here in the higher elevations possibly seeing a little. It's quickly approaching snow season up here and it's starting to look more mid-Fall like. Depending on where, some trees (especially maples) are close to bare, but in heavy oak areas, they're just peaking. The leaves this season started turning right on time, but seem to be running 7-10 days late peaking... just an observation. Spent the entire day outside. Took the first pic around 2pm as I snuck up on a couple Spring fawns chowing, getting fat, and preparing for the seasonal migration out of the local snow belt where it gets too deep for them to easily find food.. Second pic was taken just a few minutes ago as the sun was going down below the hill in my backyard. Sure gets chilly after that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 11, 2017 Share Posted October 11, 2017 11 minutes ago, weatherbo said: Can't get enough of the beautiful weather. Temps the past few days have been seasonal with highs in the mid-50's and lows around 30. The potential exists late Sunday night for the first snow flakes, with grassy areas here in the higher elevations possibly seeing a little. It's quickly approaching snow season up here and it's starting to look more mid-Fall like. Depending on where, some trees (especially maples) are close to bare, but in heavy oak areas, they're just peaking. The leaves this season started turning right on time, but seem to be running 7-10 days late peaking... just an observation. Spent the entire day outside. Took the first pic around 2pm as I snuck up on a couple Spring fawns chowing, getting fat, and preparing for the seasonal migration out of the local snow belt where it gets too deep for them to easily find food.. Second pic was taken just a few minutes ago as the sun was going down below the hill in my backyard. Sure gets chilly after that! Great shots! Not sure we're going to get color that good down this way. The leaves have been changing for a good month now, and many trees are partially bare already. Kind of a weird mixture of mostly green trees, or partially bare trees that have both green and colorful leaves left. Strange autumn as far as the colors go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainsucks Posted October 11, 2017 Share Posted October 11, 2017 5 hours ago, RogueWaves said: Yep, that was a good one, but 3X as much hit my place just 2 yrs ago 11-21-15. Yeah, nobody gets snow in Nov. 1 hour ago, Stebo said: Well this obviously trounced the thought that there is no appreciable snow in November, such a ludicrous statement to begin with. I said it's RARE to get appreciable snow in November, I didn't say that it never happens. Keep twisting my words though. Also, the Nov 2015 storm was unprecedented. You can't just use freak storms like that and say that appreciable snow in Nov is a common thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainsucks Posted October 11, 2017 Share Posted October 11, 2017 Anyway, 1/3 of the month done and we're at a +10 departure. pretty remarkable stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 11, 2017 Author Share Posted October 11, 2017 24 minutes ago, rainsucks said: I said it's RARE to get appreciable snow in November, I didn't say that it never happens. Keep twisting my words though. Also, the Nov 2015 storm was unprecedented. You can't just use freak storms like that and say that appreciable snow in Nov is a common thing. What does appreciable even mean in this context? Put a number on it. Big synoptic November snows are rare, but I'd put accumulating snow (like over 2") more in the uncommon category. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainsucks Posted October 11, 2017 Share Posted October 11, 2017 31 minutes ago, Hoosier said: What does appreciable even mean in this context? Put a number on it. Big synoptic November snows are rare, but I'd put accumulating snow (like over 2") more in the uncommon category. 6"+ I'd call appreciable no matter the time of the year. How many 6"+ snowstorms have there even been in Chicago or Detroit's recorded history in the month of November? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 11, 2017 Author Share Posted October 11, 2017 20 minutes ago, rainsucks said: 6"+ I'd call appreciable no matter the time of the year. How many 6"+ snowstorms have there even been in Chicago or Detroit's recorded history in the month of November? 7 for Chicago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 11, 2017 Share Posted October 11, 2017 6 minutes ago, Hoosier said: 7 for Chicago 6 for Detroit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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