BuffaloWeather Posted September 30, 2017 Share Posted September 30, 2017 22 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Some really dry air off the deck this weekend I get a sinus infection every Oct and every April when the seasons change. =/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted September 30, 2017 Share Posted September 30, 2017 It looks like it will continue to be dry going into October. Much of Lower Michigan continues to progress more into drought mode. Unfortunately, many of the trees are stressed and don't have vibrant color to them. Some are dropping crispy leaves. Hopefully with the cooler weather, we can still get some good fall color yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 1, 2017 Author Share Posted October 1, 2017 Some pretty low dews on the HRRR and RAP. Could have T/Td spreads around 40 degrees in some areas tomorrow afternoon if this verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slow poke Posted October 1, 2017 Share Posted October 1, 2017 First good frost this morning at my place, wasn't expecting it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted October 1, 2017 Share Posted October 1, 2017 Hasn't really been discussed, because it's so far out, but it does appear we could have a conditional severe weather threat in the subforum next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted October 1, 2017 Share Posted October 1, 2017 16 minutes ago, Powerball said: Hasn't really been discussed, because it's so far out, but it does appear we could have a conditional severe weather threat in the subforum next weekend. I noticed that yesterday, but didn't want to post about it yet, lest I get lambasted. I enjoy the upcoming time of year because limited severe parameters may lead to pretty good events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 1, 2017 Share Posted October 1, 2017 Yeah the pattern is starting to look a little more active now going forward. Kind of glad to put September behind us. Other than the heat it was a very benign month, which is pretty typical I suppose lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted October 1, 2017 Share Posted October 1, 2017 I like to put it this way: Autumn severe is sometimes like baking a cake and forgetting an ingredient and yet it comes out tasting okay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted October 1, 2017 Share Posted October 1, 2017 DTW started the day at 43 but much of SE MI outside the urban core in the 30s. The usual ARB came it at 29! Welcome to the most colorful month of the year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 1, 2017 Author Share Posted October 1, 2017 Details murky but might be some good rains somewhere with the slow progression of this front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted October 1, 2017 Share Posted October 1, 2017 Chilly 37-38F this morning at YYZ and YKZ. Coldest low temperature since May 9th. Looks like SW AB may get upwards of 6-12" tonight and tomorrow. Wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 1, 2017 Author Share Posted October 1, 2017 Looks like the HRRR and RAP from last night were on track with the very low dewpoints Current dews Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted October 2, 2017 Share Posted October 2, 2017 Those dry dewpoints led to a big gap between the high and low temperatures today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted October 2, 2017 Share Posted October 2, 2017 Sunset tonight in Findlay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted October 2, 2017 Share Posted October 2, 2017 A foreshadow of the the winter to come? Waiting for the posts on how the the temp forecast is wrong in 3..2...1... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted October 2, 2017 Share Posted October 2, 2017 4 hours ago, IWXwx said: A foreshadow of the the winter to come? Waiting for the posts on how the the temp forecast is wrong in 3..2...1... I don't think a small period like this is good enough to make an accurate opinion on the winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 2, 2017 Author Share Posted October 2, 2017 4 hours ago, IWXwx said: A foreshadow of the the winter to come? Waiting for the posts on how the the temp forecast is wrong in 3..2...1... Lol Don't worry warm folks. The month is favored to finish above average Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted October 2, 2017 Share Posted October 2, 2017 15 hours ago, Jim Martin said: Sunset tonight in Findlay. Spectacular Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted October 2, 2017 Share Posted October 2, 2017 For the 3rd straight day SE MI started with temps ranging from the 40s in the urban core to 30s in rural areas. DTW has risen from 45 to 72 in about 6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 3, 2017 Author Share Posted October 3, 2017 That weekend storm looks like one of those remind-you-that-it's-fall storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 3, 2017 Author Share Posted October 3, 2017 Multi model signal for some kind of tropical entity to make landfall on the Gulf coast late weekend/early next week. In general it looks like a trough to the west during that time. If it's timed right and sharp enough, it could kick the remnants northward into the region but if it's flatter, then it would probably kick any remnants east. Just something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted October 3, 2017 Share Posted October 3, 2017 So far this Fall, the lowest temp at ORD has only been 49. And, it looks like temps won't drop below 49 for the next week or so, unless one of the nights clears out more than expected. Seems like in recent years, it's very difficult to get cold overnight temps around here in September/October. Part of it could be UHI, of course. The normal low for today (based on 1981-2010 data) is 47. I seem to remember in the 1980s and 1990s where it would often drop into the 30s in early-mid October, and the 20s by late October. Not every day, just some days. The peak leaf change seems later now (October 20 instead of October 10), bugs seem to stick around for longer into the Fall, etc. Just some musings...not sure how scientifically valid it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted October 3, 2017 Share Posted October 3, 2017 26 minutes ago, beavis1729 said: So far this Fall, the lowest temp at ORD has only been 49. And, it looks like temps won't drop below 49 for the next week or so, unless one of the nights clears out more than expected. Seems like in recent years, it's very difficult to get cold overnight temps around here in September/October. Part of it could be UHI, of course. The normal low for today (based on 1981-2010 data) is 47. I seem to remember in the 1980s and 1990s where it would often drop into the 30s in early-mid October, and the 20s by late October. Not every day, just some days. The peak leaf change seems later now (October 20 instead of October 10), bugs seem to stick around for longer into the Fall, etc. Just some musings...not sure how scientifically valid it is. Powerful heat island. The GFS actually captures the effect now with 2m temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted October 3, 2017 Share Posted October 3, 2017 54 minutes ago, Jonger said: Powerful heat island. The GFS actually captures the effect now with 2m temps. The gfs heat island around cities is GROSSLY overdone. It's ridiculous actually, if you look at a map on tidbits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted October 3, 2017 Share Posted October 3, 2017 1 hour ago, beavis1729 said: So far this Fall, the lowest temp at ORD has only been 49. And, it looks like temps won't drop below 49 for the next week or so, unless one of the nights clears out more than expected. Seems like in recent years, it's very difficult to get cold overnight temps around here in September/October. Part of it could be UHI, of course. The normal low for today (based on 1981-2010 data) is 47. I seem to remember in the 1980s and 1990s where it would often drop into the 30s in early-mid October, and the 20s by late October. Not every day, just some days. The peak leaf change seems later now (October 20 instead of October 10), bugs seem to stick around for longer into the Fall, etc. Just some musings...not sure how scientifically valid it is. My mom was in Chicago this weekend. Says there is less color (though she was on the lake). And it definitely didnt get as cold there as here. I'm assuming the lake has something to do with it. I'm sure UHI definitely affects airports though. Btw I see ORD was 48 the other day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted October 3, 2017 Share Posted October 3, 2017 5 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: My mom was in Chicago this weekend. Says there is less color (though she was on the lake). And it definitely didnt get as cold there as here. I'm assuming the lake has something to do with it. I'm sure UHI definitely affects airports though. Btw I see ORD was 48 the other day. Yep, my bad...was 48 on 10/1. The thing about UHI these days is that it's not just the immediate areas around ORD/tarmac, MDW, or lakefront...it's the entire 6 county metro area. I guess that's what 10 million people will do. Funny that you hear the NWS in Alaska talk about UHI in Fairbanks relative to surrounding areas. I guess it doesn't take much! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 3, 2017 Author Share Posted October 3, 2017 6 minutes ago, beavis1729 said: Yep, my bad...was 48 on 10/1. The thing about UHI these days is that it's not just the immediate areas around ORD/tarmac, MDW, or lakefront...it's the entire 6 county metro area. I guess that's what 10 million people will do. Funny that you hear the NWS in Alaska talk about UHI in Fairbanks relative to surrounding areas. I guess it doesn't take much! Definitely can and does extend out beyond the central urban core, though obviously not to the same magnitude. I'd have to check but I know I've had one or two nights in the 30s. But I am closer to the outer part of the urban zone than the inner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 3, 2017 Share Posted October 3, 2017 Euro has a pretty impressive defo band from IA up into MN on Saturday. Wind-driven heavy cold rain with temps near 50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted October 4, 2017 Share Posted October 4, 2017 2 hours ago, Hoosier said: Definitely can and does extend out beyond the central urban core, though obviously not to the same magnitude. I'd have to check but I know I've had one or two nights in the 30s. But I am closer to the outer part of the urban zone than the inner. Yep, got down to 38 here a few nights ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted October 4, 2017 Share Posted October 4, 2017 1 hour ago, cyclone77 said: Euro has a pretty impressive defo band from IA up into MN on Saturday. Wind-driven heavy cold rain with temps near 50. At least it's not 33*F and cold rain. Sucks to be them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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