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October 2017 Discussion

Hoosier

By Hoosier,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

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Jonger

Jonger

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said:


The lakes are cold, eh? ...

4555b16ae28767314344f242110d9318.gif

That's today, wait 2 weeks... This "Average" period over the next 10 days will hurt it more. The pools at the campground are closed October 1st.

Basically I'll be going up there to stand around in the heat. We go there to walk nature trails and sit by a campfire. Not sweat.

Look.... I'm going there either way, since my wife will nix my plan. The campground closes on the last day we are there, so there won't be another chance before next May.

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Jonger

Jonger

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:


Kids don't want to play outside? Everyone imaginable has been outside. Pools filled, runners everywhere, people biking.

Most newer subs do not allow above ground pools all year only temporary, so during the first half of September all the pools were taken down.

It's hard enough to get kids to play outside, a heat index near 100 isn't fun for anyone... unless you're trying to shed weight.

Thursday will be another story.

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Stebo

Stebo

Posted
Posted
52 minutes ago, Jonger said:

and the lakes are cold. So it's pretty much worthless.

I'm booked at a Grayling campground for the second weekend in October and anything over 80 and I'm canceling.

73 degrees at Belle Isle, brrrrrrrrrrrrrrr. 70 at Port Huron, shiver me timbers.

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Stebo

Stebo

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Jonger said:

Most newer subs do not allow above ground pools all year only temporary, so during the first half of September all the pools were taken down.

It's hard enough to get kids to play outside, a heat index near 100 isn't fun for anyone... unless you're trying to shed weight.

Thursday will be another story.

Must suck having a HOA telling you what to do.

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Jonger

Jonger

Posted
Posted
Just now, Stebo said:

Inland lakes are even warmer, Burt Lake Mullet Lake both in the low to mid 70s.

We can revisit this in 2 weeks... but I doubt they are over 65 by then.

65F water would be a bit on the optimistic side.

Regardless, I don't have a boat. Swimming is boring as it is.

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Stebo

Stebo

Posted
Posted
Just now, Jonger said:

My kids. They aren't going to swim in cold water.... well, they might try. 

I'm more of a hot tub person anyhow.

Nothing beats a hot tub outside in January while it's snowing.

If it is hot enough they will swim, I mean come on now... At this point you are just complaining to complain.

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Jonger

Jonger

Posted
Posted
Just now, Stebo said:

If it is hot enough they will swim, I mean come on now... At this point you are just complaining to complain.

 I'm more pissed about this upcoming (Possible) pattern than now... I was hyped for a cool, autumn camping trip to walk the trails with a hot coffee in one hand. None of this is possible if it's in the upper 80's.

We might just cancel the camping and get a hotel in Petoskey. Huge downgrade. 

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Stebo

Stebo

Posted
Posted
Just now, Jonger said:

 I'm more pissed about this upcoming (Possible) pattern than now... I was hyped for a cool, autumn camping trip to walk the trails with a hot coffee in one hand. None of this is possible if it's in the upper 80's.

We might just cancel the camping and get a hotel in Petoskey. Huge downgrade. 

Your posts in this thread have the sound of a balloon deflating.

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Jonger

Jonger

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

Good ole NMI vacations. Awesome when the wx cooperates, nasso much when it don't.

We went a few times this summer, my parents bought a nice travel trailer.

Weather wasn't too bad the second trip, but the first one landed on a majorly humid day and I soaked through a couple shirts trying to setup the camper.

I enjoyed myself most just laying inside the camper with the AC cranking. 

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Hoosier

Hoosier

Posted
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Posted
1 hour ago, Stebo said:

Here's the thing, the signal is stronger this time than at this range for the current heat wave. I think people are brushing it back because it would be so soon but the ensembles don't usually show a signal this strong this close in to back off. It is going to be warm to hot after this brief cool snap.

If this plays out the way it looks like, it might be a mid Sep to mid Oct period that is unparalleled since records have been kept.  If you go back and look at the period around 9/15 through 10/15, you might find one stretch of high end/record warmth with another blowtorch or two thrown in at some other time, but would be hard pressed to find multiple 5-7+ day stretches of extreme warmth.

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Stebo

Stebo

Posted
Posted
Just now, Hoosier said:

If this plays out the way it looks like, it might be a mid Sep to mid Oct period that is unparalleled since records have been kept.  If you go back and look at the period around 9/15 through 10/15, you might find one stretch of high end/record warmth with another blowtorch or two thrown in at some other time, but would be hard pressed to find multiple 5-7+ day stretches of extreme warmth.

Yeah even 2007 didn't have that, at least not at that length.

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Jonger

Jonger

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

If this plays out the way it looks like, it might be a mid Sep to mid Oct period that is unparalleled since records have been kept.  If you go back and look at the period around 9/15 through 10/15, you might find one stretch of high end/record warmth with another blowtorch or two thrown in at some other time, but would be hard pressed to find multiple 5-7+ day stretches of extreme warmth.

It looks to be way above normal, but over a smaller area. This period we are ending was almost the entire eastern side of the United States.

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Hoosier

Hoosier

Posted
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Posted
5 minutes ago, Jonger said:

It looks to be way above normal, but over a smaller area. This period we are ending was almost the entire eastern side of the United States.

Not sure about that.  Might be similar to what we have now, where it's focused in the Midwest first and then includes areas farther east.

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Stebo

Stebo

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, Jonger said:

It looks to be way above normal, but over a smaller area. This period we are ending was almost the entire eastern side of the United States.

Mind you these are ensembles and they are going this high already. I think you are grossly underdoing the potential.

ecmwf-ens_T850a_us_11.png

gfs-ens_T850a_us_41.png

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RCNYILWX

RCNYILWX

Posted
Posted
If this plays out the way it looks like, it might be a mid Sep to mid Oct period that is unparalleled since records have been kept.  If you go back and look at the period around 9/15 through 10/15, you might find one stretch of high end/record warmth with another blowtorch or two thrown in at some other time, but would be hard pressed to find multiple 5-7+ day stretches of extreme warmth.

Fall 1953 would be the season closest to what could occur. Using Chicago data, a few 100s in early September, multiple 90s in later September including the 99 on the 29th, a 90 in early October, and then 8 consecutive 80s in mid to late October. 1953 also had 8 consecutive 60s in mid November, and during that stretch, 5 consecutive 70s occurred.

Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk

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RogueWaves

RogueWaves

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

Fall 1953 would be the season closest to what could occur. Using Chicago data, a few 100s in early September, multiple 90s in later September including the 99 on the 29th, a 90 in early October, and then 8 consecutive 80s in mid to late October. 1953 also had 8 consecutive 60s in mid November, and during that stretch, 5 consecutive 70s occurred.

Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk
 

Sick to think it's been worse than this. And in an era of little air conditioning. Just miserable stuff really.

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Hoosier

Hoosier

Posted
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Posted
19 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

Fall 1953 would be the season closest to what could occur. Using Chicago data, a few 100s in early September, multiple 90s in later September including the 99 on the 29th, a 90 in early October, and then 8 consecutive 80s in mid to late October. 1953 also had 8 consecutive 60s in mid November, and during that stretch, 5 consecutive 70s occurred.

Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk
 

Even that 9/15 to 10/15 period wouldn't be like this.  That month stretch in 1953 had 8 days of 80+ (4 of those were 90+).  2017 already has 9 days of 80+ (6 of those 90+) and it's only September 25th.  

Even being generous and extending the end date in 1953 to include that 80+ streak -- so through 10/22 -- it would be 15 days of 80+

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Stebo said:

Mind you these are ensembles and they are going this high already. I think you are grossly underdoing the potential.

ecmwf-ens_T850a_us_11.png

gfs-ens_T850a_us_41.png

 Just insane anomalies. Jun/July/August ended up at -.4 overall at Buffalo. Currently at +2.1 for September. It seems these patterns setup in 3-6 month increments. We saw a very similar pattern from Oct-March last year with above normal temps. April-August was cooler than normal. Now we are back to well above normal. 

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