Stebo Posted October 20, 2017 Share Posted October 20, 2017 9 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: LOL Everything below 0 is overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted October 20, 2017 Share Posted October 20, 2017 46 minutes ago, Stebo said: Yeah it isn't too surprising if MN or northern WI got some snow in that period. Then it follows it up with a clipper that dumps more snow over WI/MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 20, 2017 Share Posted October 20, 2017 Just now, IWXwx said: Then it follows it up with a clipper that dumps more snow over WI/MI. Given the pattern shown, I could buy that for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted October 20, 2017 Share Posted October 20, 2017 Paging rainsucks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted October 20, 2017 Share Posted October 20, 2017 The last few days have been nice... not going to complain. Great outdoor yard work weather. I mowed my lawn after 2 weeks and 5 inches of rain..... It was so much grass I dumped it in my pickup truck and pushed it into some woods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted October 20, 2017 Share Posted October 20, 2017 22 hours ago, Hoosier said: I see 1989 on there. No October snowstorm this time though. Yeah, that was another point of that graphic. With that being used in analog lists by some, it remains in the running. Such a bi-polar winter that was. I'm really hoping NOT to get a repeat of that tbh. Remains to be seen tho, if we'll ride a roller-coaster or cold will more or less lock in for the core of winter months with the occasional moderation/thaw. 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: If anything like the 12z op GFS pans out in the extended, the trees that are still green are going to go into shock. I've been harping on that very point. Don't remember the year exactly ('05?) when that happened around SMI and the mostly green leafs just froze and dropped. I could see some of that going around if we indeed flip hard. Especially along coastal regions where it's stayed extra mild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted October 20, 2017 Share Posted October 20, 2017 Hoosier made me check out the 27th-28th time period. The Canadian agrees on a trough dumping in, although it spins up the surface wave along the front farther north than the GFS. The 12z Euro is also in basic agreement. Looks like it will be a matter of details as to who gets to see flakes flying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted October 20, 2017 Share Posted October 20, 2017 35 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Paging rainsucks... LOL @ using a 216 hr map to then further leap-frog a call for several weeks later over another region half a world away! There, that should do it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 20, 2017 Author Share Posted October 20, 2017 First things first, the ECMWF and GGEM are in basic agreement on an earlier phase of the early week storm, while the GFS is delayed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted October 20, 2017 Share Posted October 20, 2017 Plenty of sunshine in Northwest Ohio this afternoon. Temperatures have responded accordingly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 20, 2017 Author Share Posted October 20, 2017 1 hour ago, RogueWaves said: Yeah, that was another point of that graphic. With that being used in analog lists by some, it remains in the running. Such a bi-polar winter that was. I'm really hoping NOT to get a repeat of that tbh. Remains to be seen tho, if we'll ride a roller-coaster or cold will more or less lock in for the core of winter months with the occasional moderation/thaw. I've been harping on that very point. Don't remember the year exactly ('05?) when that happened around SMI and the mostly green leafs just froze and dropped. I could see some of that going around if we indeed flip hard. Especially along coastal regions where it's stayed extra mild. I don't remember the leaf situation in 2005, but you could be right. It was a warm fall followed by a quick turn to cold by the start of December. There was a decent snow event on 12/8/2005... actually one of my favorite quick hitters (relatively speaking). I was in LAF at the time and we picked up 7-8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted October 20, 2017 Share Posted October 20, 2017 14 minutes ago, Hoosier said: I don't remember the leaf situation in 2005, but you could be right. It was a warm fall followed by a quick turn to cold by the start of December. There was a decent snow event on 12/8/2005... actually one of my favorite quick hitters (relatively speaking). I was in LAF at the time and we picked up 7-8". It's possible it was the pre-Thanksgiving storm in '04, but I clearly remember that the city had not collected all the leafs that were raked curb-side and they ended up being buried by the snow plows which made a real chore when it did melt. Since then, they've maintained an earlier leaf collection schedule. Too early really, if you have late dropping hardy trees like I do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted October 20, 2017 Share Posted October 20, 2017 It's so cute you guys still have leaves to talk about, 75% of mine are on the ground now, bring on the winter storm tracking season please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 20, 2017 Author Share Posted October 20, 2017 Midway has hit 80. Looks like O'Hare may come up short but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 20, 2017 Share Posted October 20, 2017 5 hours ago, Hoosier said: It would basically be on the 20th anniversary of this. Not sure how many people remember this storm, but I do, even though nothing fell at my location. My grandparents were flying home and had a scheduled stopover in Omaha. It was a mess out there. I remember seeing the images on TWC of downed branches all over the place. I remember that one. Had a few inches in the QC where I lived at the time. Thought Iowa City had more than what that map above shows, but I'd have to check on that. DVN made 80 today. 79 here and at MLI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted October 20, 2017 Share Posted October 20, 2017 Evening look out the window in downtown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted October 20, 2017 Share Posted October 20, 2017 75 today, normal is 50. It was an idyllic day, but this degree of warmth is starting to feel a bit unnatural with the low sun angle and now bare trees. Nice to see colder weather on tap next week along with a couple chances of some snow flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainsucks Posted October 20, 2017 Share Posted October 20, 2017 3 hours ago, Angrysummons said: I am surprised any one cares what a model prints after 120hrs. They can't even figure out 72-120 hours correctly with all that tropical forcing going on. Me thinks that ridging need back built which kills the entire premise of the 12z in the first place. If the long range GFS had panned out I'd have inches of snow on the ground right now. Instead it was a beautiful summery day today with a few more nice days on the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted October 21, 2017 Share Posted October 21, 2017 4 hours ago, Angrysummons said: I am surprised any one cares what a model prints after 120hrs. They can't even figure out 72-120 hours correctly with all that tropical forcing going on. Me thinks that ridging need back built which kills the entire premise of the 12z in the first place. So you think the GFS, ECMWF, GGEM, and the ensembles are wrong about a cold shot in the 28th-30th timeframe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainsucks Posted October 21, 2017 Share Posted October 21, 2017 40 minutes ago, IWXwx said: So you think the GFS, ECMWF, GGEM, and the ensembles are wrong about a cold shot in the 28th-30th timeframe? Why would anyone root for garbage cold this time of the year anyway... I'd rather have some beautiful late fall weather like we're having right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 21, 2017 Share Posted October 21, 2017 2 minutes ago, rainsucks said: Why would anyone root for garbage cold this time of the year anyway... I'd rather have some beautiful late fall weather like we're having right now. You are mistaking discussing for rooting, most discussing aren't rooting for it but you have to acknowledge what the models are showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted October 21, 2017 Share Posted October 21, 2017 3 minutes ago, rainsucks said: Why would anyone root for garbage cold this time of the year anyway... I'd rather have some beautiful late fall weather like we're having right now. Apparently you are not one that likes Fall colors... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainsucks Posted October 21, 2017 Share Posted October 21, 2017 1 minute ago, Jim Martin said: Apparently you are not one that likes Fall colors... nah, I wish it was in the 80s and 90s all year round. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 21, 2017 Share Posted October 21, 2017 Just now, rainsucks said: nah, I wish it was in the 80s and 90s all year round. Move to Hawaii Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted October 21, 2017 Share Posted October 21, 2017 9 hours ago, rainsucks said: Why would anyone root for garbage cold this time of the year anyway... I'd rather have some beautiful late fall weather like we're having right now. 9 hours ago, Stebo said: You are mistaking discussing for rooting, most discussing aren't rooting for it but you have to acknowledge what the models are showing. This. As I get older, I like warmth more and more. I actually said in a post awhile back that I prefer warmth until mid-November then flip the switch to cold and I'd be happy. Not rooting for it, but it looks like the first legit shot at flakes flying somewhere in the subforum (other than bo and co.). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted October 21, 2017 Share Posted October 21, 2017 10 hours ago, Stebo said: You are mistaking discussing for rooting, most discussing aren't rooting for it but you have to acknowledge what the models are showing. And who roots for garbage heat in September? It's going to be annoying as hell to hear him for the next 6 months whine about people who like cold weather. This is already one of the dullest Fall color shows in probably over a decade, thanks I'm sure to the late Sept heat after the color change started, and by Nov 1st I'm in winter mode anyway. So I'm rooting for cold. I mean November is an in between month anyway so I don't want to "waste" it or anything, but my winter switch is turned on Nov 1st and doesn't go off until April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted October 21, 2017 Share Posted October 21, 2017 Despite the duller than normal color, still some gorgeous trees out there. Taken yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted October 21, 2017 Share Posted October 21, 2017 The calendar says October while my mind daily grind is full summer. Was swimming in lake St Claire two weeks ago, camping last weekend and working outside is envious of those in office jobs. Top shelf fall weather.... Transient cold on tap, will the be arctic outbreak to the mind and skin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted October 21, 2017 Share Posted October 21, 2017 1 hour ago, DAFF said: The calendar says October while my mind daily grind is full summer. Was swimming in lake St Claire two weeks ago, camping last weekend and working outside is envious of those in office jobs. Top shelf fall weather.... Transient cold on tap, will the be arctic outbreak to the mind and skin. Cold doesn't look so transient on ensembles. This week's weather I think has helped salvage some nice color after the heat of late September tried frying it. We have had cold mornings and mild afternoons, daily 20° to 35° diurnal temp swings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted October 21, 2017 Share Posted October 21, 2017 Another dry, pleasant Saturday on the way for Northwest Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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