Chambana Posted October 19, 2017 Share Posted October 19, 2017 Temps running 10.3 degrees above normal through the first 18 days, should add to that between now and Sunday. GFS has a +PNA and a potent trough possibly next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted October 19, 2017 Share Posted October 19, 2017 Gfs overdoing it per usual with its 2m temps. Highs will barely be below average as the average high will be in the mid 50s by next week. Overnight lows may very well be around normal, then we flip back to a milder pattern for the rest of November per GFS ensembles and CFS weeklies.ECMWF is cooler too.Average highs will down into the 50's and lows ~40, but I'd bank on some days with highs suck in the 40's and lows in the 20's given how things look as of now.Oh, and please point me in the direction of the GFS ensembles that go past very early November, as well as the CFS weeklies that show the whole month. (Weeklies are around normal for weeks 3/4 by the way)It's clearly going to be the end of the end for consistently mild/warm weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 19, 2017 Share Posted October 19, 2017 6 hours ago, rainsucks said: Gfs overdoing it per usual with its 2m temps. Highs will barely be below average as the average high will be in the mid 50s by next week. Overnight lows may very well be around normal, then we flip back to a milder pattern for the rest of November per GFS ensembles and CFS weeklies. You must have access to models that don't exist because the GFS ends at 11/04 and the CFS doesn't even go to the end of Nov either. How about you stop lying about things here, your nonstop warm bias is one thing but if you are going to outright falsify things, that isn't going to fly around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 19, 2017 Share Posted October 19, 2017 13 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: ECMWF is cooler too. Average highs will down into the 50's and lows ~40, but I'd bank on some days with highs suck in the 40's and lows in the 20's given how things look as of now. Oh, and please point me in the direction of the GFS ensembles that go past very early November, as well as the CFS weeklies that show the whole month. (Weeklies are around normal for weeks 3/4 by the way) It's clearly going to be the end of the end for consistently mild/warm weather. Yeah the Euro is actually much colder than the GFS and not as transient as a 2nd shot comes down a week from today per the 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted October 19, 2017 Share Posted October 19, 2017 Fall Colors coming through in Findlay at Oakwoods Nature Preserve. 10/19/2017. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted October 19, 2017 Share Posted October 19, 2017 Kinda surprised at how slow the color chg has ended up being since the flip to torch temps. You know things are a bit non-traditional when SEMI is ahead of SWMI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 19, 2017 Author Share Posted October 19, 2017 1 minute ago, RogueWaves said: Kinda surprised at how slow the color chg has ended up being since the flip to torch temps. You know things are a bit non-traditional when SEMI is ahead of SWMI I see 1989 on there. No October snowstorm this time though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted October 19, 2017 Share Posted October 19, 2017 Earlier today near downtown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted October 19, 2017 Share Posted October 19, 2017 Topped out at 80 today, just an incredible late October day, very gentle breeze and low humidity. A very odd fall foliage this year, actually down right non existent, either thing are very green or just straight up dropping leaves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted October 19, 2017 Share Posted October 19, 2017 12z euro has a doozy of a storm over the Ohio Valley next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 19, 2017 Share Posted October 19, 2017 MLI made 76 today. Hit 73 here. Very nice day. Got a shot at 80 tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted October 19, 2017 Share Posted October 19, 2017 1 hour ago, Chambana said: 12z euro has a doozy of a storm over the Ohio Valley next week. ...while the GFS is weaker and progressive. I wouldn't be surprised to see an ULL crank up over the region. It is sort of a mid autumn tradition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainsucks Posted October 19, 2017 Share Posted October 19, 2017 5 hours ago, Stebo said: You must have access to models that don't exist because the GFS ends at 11/04 and the CFS doesn't even go to the end of Nov either. How about you stop lying about things here, your nonstop warm bias is one thing but if you are going to outright falsify things, that isn't going to fly around here. Correlates to one heck of a ridge for our region early-mid November. Would be hard to believe we see a drastic flip to cold later in November with that look also, hence why I say Nov will probably finish on the warm side of average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 19, 2017 Share Posted October 19, 2017 1 minute ago, rainsucks said: Correlates to one heck of a ridge for our region early-mid November. Would be hard to believe we see a drastic flip to cold later in November with that look also, hence why I say Nov will probably finish on the warm side of average. You are using 1 image of 1 model run saying that will correlate to a warm month... I mean come on now, you aren't even trying anymore, your trolling is hilariously bad. It will be nice when the plug is pulled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainsucks Posted October 19, 2017 Share Posted October 19, 2017 5 minutes ago, Stebo said: You are using 1 image of 1 model run saying that will correlate to a warm month... I mean come on now, you aren't even trying anymore, your trolling is hilariously bad. It will be nice when the plug is pulled. Sorry but it's been showing up in multiple model runs. I fully expect the first half of Nov to be warm, and if it's not then I'll eat crow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 19, 2017 Share Posted October 19, 2017 Just now, rainsucks said: Sorry but it's been showing up in multiple model runs. I fully expect the first half of Nov to be warm, and if it's not then I'll eat crow. You can't even keep your message straight, first it is all month then half a month of warmth. You are trying so hard to push your agenda around here without any merit or evidence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainsucks Posted October 19, 2017 Share Posted October 19, 2017 The second half may very well end up milder than average too, but even if it ends up cold I doubt it'd be enough to erase the positive departures that I expect to build up in the first half. It's not really an agenda either, just using the east asian theory/typhoon rule which has worked pretty well lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted October 20, 2017 Share Posted October 20, 2017 I haven't seen any reference of the typically higher skilled Euro weeklies (vs. the CFS), which do not show a warm look for November. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 20, 2017 Author Share Posted October 20, 2017 32 minutes ago, rainsucks said: Correlates to one heck of a ridge for our region early-mid November. Would be hard to believe we see a drastic flip to cold later in November with that look also, hence why I say Nov will probably finish on the warm side of average. The bolded part really doesn't make sense. Atmosphere is fluid so "that look" probably won't keep remaining the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted October 20, 2017 Share Posted October 20, 2017 Sorry but it's been showing up in multiple model runs. I fully expect the first half of Nov to be warm, and if it's not then I'll eat crow. I'll keep it on ice for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted October 20, 2017 Share Posted October 20, 2017 Flush already! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 20, 2017 Share Posted October 20, 2017 2 hours ago, RCNYILWX said: I haven't seen any reference of the typically higher skilled Euro weeklies (vs. the CFS), which do not show a warm look for November. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk Yeah, you can't have evidence that contradicts the warm bias Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 20, 2017 Share Posted October 20, 2017 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: The bolded part really doesn't make sense. Atmosphere is fluid so "that look" probably won't keep remaining the same. Don't you know if the first 10 days of the most changeable months of the year is warm, it will remain warm the rest of the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted October 20, 2017 Share Posted October 20, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 20, 2017 Author Share Posted October 20, 2017 I think this is the closest modeled snow event thus far, i.e. not some 2 week thing. We'll have enough cold air in the pattern which is half the battle. Climo would tend to favor the farther north/west areas of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveSN+ Posted October 20, 2017 Share Posted October 20, 2017 GFS playing tricks a few days early it seems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 20, 2017 Author Share Posted October 20, 2017 If anything like the 12z op GFS pans out in the extended, the trees that are still green are going to go into shock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 20, 2017 Share Posted October 20, 2017 17 minutes ago, Hoosier said: I think this is the closest modeled snow event thus far, i.e. not some 2 week thing. We'll have enough cold air in the pattern which is half the battle. Climo would tend to favor the farther north/west areas of course. Yeah it isn't too surprising if MN or northern WI got some snow in that period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 20, 2017 Author Share Posted October 20, 2017 6 minutes ago, Stebo said: Yeah it isn't too surprising if MN or northern WI got some snow in that period. It would basically be on the 20th anniversary of this. Not sure how many people remember this storm, but I do, even though nothing fell at my location. My grandparents were flying home and had a scheduled stopover in Omaha. It was a mess out there. I remember seeing the images on TWC of downed branches all over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted October 20, 2017 Share Posted October 20, 2017 LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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