TugHillMatt Posted October 15, 2017 Share Posted October 15, 2017 1 hour ago, RogueWaves said: Just over 5" of rain since Tuesday morning. Shallow ponds that had dried up should be re-hydrated going forward. Glad to lose the dry pattern and the snooze-fest pattern! Van Buren, Kalamazoo, and Calhoun Counties sure got hit, didn't they!!?! I got about 1.5 inches here, which is perfect for replenishing water without all the flooding. The pond at work is the lowest I have ever seen it. We had to turn the fountain off in September for fear that the pump would burn up with not enough water going through. Hopefully it go some good water drained into after this weekend. The fish, frogs, and turtles could surely use it in their little habitat! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainsucks Posted October 15, 2017 Share Posted October 15, 2017 3 hours ago, IWXwx said: LOL Very inconsistent, right? I don't take anything the gfs shows past hour 240 seriously, and I hope no one else does either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainsucks Posted October 15, 2017 Share Posted October 15, 2017 the GFS is always WAY too aggressive with cold shots, especially early in the season. You'd think with AGW the models would tend to have a warm bias, but so many of them have severe cold biases for some reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 15, 2017 Share Posted October 15, 2017 22 minutes ago, rainsucks said: the GFS is always WAY too aggressive with cold shots, especially early in the season. You'd think with AGW the models would tend to have a warm bias, but so many of them have severe cold biases for some reason. Or better yet, don't even bother with operational models and stick with Ensembles and most importantly Teleconnections which IMO are by far the best predictors of pattern changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 15, 2017 Share Posted October 15, 2017 https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/reforecast2/teleconn/forecast.html We're going to have a positive PNA, but also a positive EPO which most likely as Stebo pointed out the cold shot will be transient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted October 15, 2017 Share Posted October 15, 2017 Here we are in mid October and tonight is the first time "patchy frost" has been in the forecast. The expected low is 36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted October 16, 2017 Share Posted October 16, 2017 4 hours ago, blackrock said: Van Buren, Kalamazoo, and Calhoun Counties sure got hit, didn't they!!?! I got about 1.5 inches here, which is perfect for replenishing water without all the flooding. The pond at work is the lowest I have ever seen it. We had to turn the fountain off in September for fear that the pump would burn up with not enough water going through. Hopefully it go some good water drained into after this weekend. The fish, frogs, and turtles could surely use it in their little habitat! Went to Kzoo last night and saw a pond at a business and it was 3X it's normal size. Yeah, we got nailed along 94 from here back west. What a week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted October 16, 2017 Share Posted October 16, 2017 3 hours ago, rainsucks said: the GFS is always WAY too aggressive with cold shots, especially early in the season. You'd think with AGW the models would tend to have a warm bias, but so many of them have severe cold biases for some reason. Have to agree that Op GFS does over do these cold shots, at least during the times of predominant ridge east, trough west regime. We'll see how it does during the periods when we have a trough east regime? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted October 16, 2017 Share Posted October 16, 2017 3 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Or better yet, don't even bother with operational models and stick with Ensembles and most importantly Teleconnections which IMO are by far the best predictors of pattern changes. I think the issue was more about the level of intensity shown by the GFS Op runs, and less about a change vs no change. So, a few days of real autumn chill, that's been way past due was bound to happen. It's too early to lock in cold over the east anyhow. We're at least a month away from that benefitting anyone but natural gas suppliers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted October 16, 2017 Share Posted October 16, 2017 15 hours ago, blackrock said: Bo, it looks like you're going to be looking at quite a stretch of drab, brown trees with no snow for the next couple weeks. Still waiting on our first frost down in much of Lower. Looks like you may have some good understory color left in the woods. With a forecast like this, it's hard to complain tho. That's the great thing about living here. My days for hoping and wishing for snow are gone. The snow will come, it always does. Precip map from the weekend storm. 1.70" here. If this would have been snow, I'd still be digging out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted October 16, 2017 Share Posted October 16, 2017 Had a bit of frost this morning with a temp of about 36, so about what was expected. I was checking our October record lows last night and discovered that, in 1925, we actually crashed to -2F in late October. Wow! In recent years, it seems like it's a struggle just to hit freezing by mid month. Our current record lows are around 20F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted October 16, 2017 Share Posted October 16, 2017 4 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: Had a bit of frost this morning with a temp of about 36, so about what was expected. I was checking our October record lows last night and discovered that, in 1925, we actually crashed to -2F in late October. Wow! In recent years, it seems like it's a struggle just to drop below freezing by mid month. That seems almost hard to believe. The record low in Lansing, MI for NOVEMBER is only -5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 16, 2017 Share Posted October 16, 2017 No frost here, but the coldest temp of the season this morning at 38. Looks like a nice week in store. No frost/freeze for the foreseeable future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted October 16, 2017 Share Posted October 16, 2017 17 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Or better yet, don't even bother with operational models and stick with Ensembles and most importantly Teleconnections which IMO are by far the best predictors of pattern changes. Agree. The op gfs in the long-range is terrible period. It overdoes torches as well as cold snaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted October 16, 2017 Share Posted October 16, 2017 4 hours ago, weatherbo said: With a forecast like this, it's hard to complain tho. That's the great thing about living here. My days for hoping and wishing for snow are gone. The snow will come, it always does. Precip map from the weekend storm. 1.70" here. If this would have been snow, I'd still be digging out. I obviously see way less snow than you, but have the same mindset. Months of snow lie ahead, so give me some clear October skies for the color. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted October 16, 2017 Share Posted October 16, 2017 4 hours ago, weatherbo said: With a forecast like this, it's hard to complain tho. That's the great thing about living here. My days for hoping and wishing for snow are gone. The snow will come, it always does. Precip map from the weekend storm. 1.70" here. If this would have been snow, I'd still be digging out. True enough! Enjoy! Looks like you had some orographic lift up there over the weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted October 16, 2017 Share Posted October 16, 2017 2 hours ago, blackrock said: True enough! Enjoy! Looks like you had some orographic lift up there over the weekend? My areas picked up some decent moisture as well amazing what 500' in elevation change can do especially in winter. Still not ready for the cold and snow yet either. Have a lot of leaves to pick up. We are past peak now and with the wind over the weekend a lot drop. A few days to try out would be great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 16, 2017 Share Posted October 16, 2017 This NWS analysis shows 8.1" in one week near Chicago, SW Michigan. I know I saw 5"-5.5" on the LOT radar rain estimation on Saturday, so there must have been about 3" at a different time. Does anybody have a swamp in their back yard? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted October 16, 2017 Share Posted October 16, 2017 This NWS analysis shows 8.1" in one week near Chicago, SW Michigan. I know I saw 5"-5.5" on the LOT radar rain estimation on Saturday, so there must have been about 3" at a different time. Does anybody have a swamp in their back yard?All of that precip occurred on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted October 16, 2017 Share Posted October 16, 2017 Noticing that the 12z GFS is hinting at a pattern flip potential towards the end of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted October 16, 2017 Share Posted October 16, 2017 4 hours ago, michsnowfreak said: Agree. The op gfs in the long-range is terrible period. It overdoes torches as well as cold snaps. Speaking of the long range GFS. 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 16, 2017 Author Share Posted October 16, 2017 1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said: All of that precip occurred on Saturday. Not all of it. There was rain on the 10th-11th (ORD had 1.57" then) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted October 16, 2017 Share Posted October 16, 2017 Not all of it. There was rain on the 10th-11th (ORD had 1.57" then) I was talking more on the 8.10" totals, which were from Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted October 16, 2017 Share Posted October 16, 2017 Sunset this evening in Findlay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted October 17, 2017 Share Posted October 17, 2017 Yesterday the sky was pretty neat before sunset. The overcast briefly broke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted October 17, 2017 Share Posted October 17, 2017 5 hours ago, michsnowfreak said: Yesterday the sky was pretty neat before sunset. The overcast briefly broke M14 Correct... By the look of it we were only a few minutes appart on the trip back to Detroit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted October 17, 2017 Share Posted October 17, 2017 10 hours ago, Chinook said: This NWS analysis shows 8.1" in one week near Chicago, SW Michigan. I know I saw 5"-5.5" on the LOT radar rain estimation on Saturday, so there must have been about 3" at a different time. Does anybody have a swamp in their back yard? I can tell you first hand that this was the most relentless rain I have ever driven through. Left Toronto around 4:00pm and it started raining within 15 min of driving. In Port Huron just about 8pm, it was so dark and wet one could barely make out the road. Rained continuously down I69. As I got to I94 Heading west Kalamazoo was sheets of rain around 10pm. I pulled the RV over and had to take a break. Warmed up a few frozen burritos and a quick coffee and I was back under way. Around Hammond the sky was lit, buckets of water and wind. I stopped at a Pilot because I missed a off ramp in a construction area. While there I went for a quick washroom break and buckled back in. Looked around me and the RV was standing in 3 inches of water. As I was pulling out of the parking lot there was a lightning strike perhaps 200 yds in front of me. By the time I hit downtown Chicago things were getting back to normal just a steady rain but the storm had passed. Finally arriving in the Schaumburg region around 2am. Its was still raining then and continued well into my sleep. Good thing my daughters morning soccer game was indoors and well worth the drive. Girls won 4-1 and by 11am I was back on the road returning to Windsor. Caught a nice tailwind home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted October 17, 2017 Share Posted October 17, 2017 3 hours ago, DAFF said: M14 Correct... By the look of it we were only a few minutes appart on the trip back to Detroit. Yes. On it briefly on the way home Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 17, 2017 Author Share Posted October 17, 2017 ORD is on a 34 day streak of above average temps. Yesterday barely made it with +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 17, 2017 Share Posted October 17, 2017 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: ORD is on a 34 day streak of above average temps. Yesterday barely made it with +1 Going to keep on rolling, low of 48 or 49 this morning, all they need is 66 for the above normal to hit. Already at 62. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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