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October 2017 Discussion


Hoosier

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1 hour ago, RogueWaves said:

Just over 5" of rain since Tuesday morning. Shallow ponds that had dried up should be re-hydrated going forward. Glad to lose the dry pattern and the snooze-fest pattern!

Van Buren, Kalamazoo, and Calhoun Counties sure got hit, didn't they!!?! I got about 1.5 inches here, which is perfect for replenishing water without all the flooding. The pond at work is the lowest I have ever seen it. We had to turn the fountain off in September for fear that the pump would burn up with not enough water going through. Hopefully it go some good water drained into after this weekend. The fish, frogs, and turtles could surely use it in their little habitat!

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22 minutes ago, rainsucks said:

the GFS is always WAY too aggressive with cold shots, especially early in the season. You'd think with AGW the models would tend to have a warm bias, but so many of them have severe cold biases for some reason. 

Or better yet, don't even bother with operational models and stick with Ensembles and most importantly Teleconnections which IMO are by far the best predictors of pattern changes. 

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4 hours ago, blackrock said:

Van Buren, Kalamazoo, and Calhoun Counties sure got hit, didn't they!!?! I got about 1.5 inches here, which is perfect for replenishing water without all the flooding. The pond at work is the lowest I have ever seen it. We had to turn the fountain off in September for fear that the pump would burn up with not enough water going through. Hopefully it go some good water drained into after this weekend. The fish, frogs, and turtles could surely use it in their little habitat!

Went to Kzoo last night and saw a pond at a business and it was 3X it's normal size. Yeah, we got nailed along 94 from here back west. What a week! 

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3 hours ago, rainsucks said:

the GFS is always WAY too aggressive with cold shots, especially early in the season. You'd think with AGW the models would tend to have a warm bias, but so many of them have severe cold biases for some reason. 

Have to agree that Op GFS does over do these cold shots, at least during the times of predominant ridge east, trough west regime. We'll see how it does during the periods when we have a trough east regime?

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3 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Or better yet, don't even bother with operational models and stick with Ensembles and most importantly Teleconnections which IMO are by far the best predictors of pattern changes. 

I think the  issue was more about the level of intensity shown by the GFS Op runs, and less about a change vs no change. So, a few days of real autumn chill, that's been way past due was bound to happen. It's too early to lock in cold over the east anyhow. We're at least a month away from that benefitting anyone but natural gas suppliers.

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15 hours ago, blackrock said:

Bo, it looks like you're going to be looking at quite a stretch of drab, brown trees with no snow for the next couple weeks. Still waiting on our first frost down in much of Lower. Looks like you may have some good understory color left in the woods. :)

 

temps.thumb.png.6fcee7bfe9e4bd138c1a6b75444c334e.png

With a forecast like this, it's hard to complain tho.  That's the great thing about living here. My days for hoping and wishing for snow are gone.  The snow will come, it always does.

Precip map from the weekend storm.   1.70" here.  If this would have been snow, I'd still be digging out. :snowing:

22519411_1845435762152973_6879014092726835982_n.jpg.e1a706365ad6c7f505e5a8de6555aee5.jpg

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Had a bit of frost this morning with a temp of about 36, so about what was expected.

I was checking our October record lows last night and discovered that, in 1925, we actually crashed to -2F in late October.  Wow!  In recent years, it seems like it's a struggle just to hit freezing by mid month.

Our current record lows are around 20F.

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4 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Had a bit of frost this morning with a temp of about 36, so about what was expected.

I was checking our October record lows last night and discovered that, in 1925, we actually crashed to -2F in late October.  Wow!  In recent years, it seems like it's a struggle just to drop below freezing by mid month.

That seems almost hard to believe. The record low in Lansing, MI for NOVEMBER is only -5

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17 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Or better yet, don't even bother with operational models and stick with Ensembles and most importantly Teleconnections which IMO are by far the best predictors of pattern changes. 

Agree. The op gfs in the long-range is terrible period. It overdoes torches as well as cold snaps.

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4 hours ago, weatherbo said:

temps.thumb.png.6fcee7bfe9e4bd138c1a6b75444c334e.png

With a forecast like this, it's hard to complain tho.  That's the great thing about living here. My days for hoping and wishing for snow are gone.  The snow will come, it always does.

Precip map from the weekend storm.   1.70" here.  If this would have been snow, I'd still be digging out. :snowing:

22519411_1845435762152973_6879014092726835982_n.jpg.e1a706365ad6c7f505e5a8de6555aee5.jpg

I obviously see way less snow than you, but have the same mindset. Months of snow lie ahead, so give me some clear October skies for the color.

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4 hours ago, weatherbo said:

temps.thumb.png.6fcee7bfe9e4bd138c1a6b75444c334e.png

With a forecast like this, it's hard to complain tho.  That's the great thing about living here. My days for hoping and wishing for snow are gone.  The snow will come, it always does.

Precip map from the weekend storm.   1.70" here.  If this would have been snow, I'd still be digging out. :snowing:

22519411_1845435762152973_6879014092726835982_n.jpg.e1a706365ad6c7f505e5a8de6555aee5.jpg

True enough! Enjoy! Looks like you had some orographic lift up there over the weekend?

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2 hours ago, blackrock said:

True enough! Enjoy! Looks like you had some orographic lift up there over the weekend?

My areas picked up some decent moisture as well amazing what 500' in elevation change can do especially in winter. Still not ready for the cold and snow yet either. Have a lot of leaves to pick up. We are past peak now and with the wind over the weekend a lot drop. A few days to try out would be great. 

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This NWS analysis shows 8.1" in one week near Chicago, SW Michigan. I know I saw 5"-5.5" on the LOT radar rain estimation on Saturday, so there must have been about 3" at a different time. Does anybody have a swamp in their back yard?

wL7Soei.png&key=cd611f2b5c4e945c572f8e3f8d65b0d52f4ccb49035938080725c0c2d950f091


All of that precip occurred on Saturday.
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10 hours ago, Chinook said:

This NWS analysis shows 8.1" in one week near Chicago, SW Michigan. I know I saw 5"-5.5" on the LOT radar rain estimation on Saturday, so there must have been about 3" at a different time. Does anybody have a swamp in their back yard?

wL7Soei.png

I can tell you first hand that this was the most relentless rain I have ever driven through. Left Toronto around 4:00pm and it started raining within 15 min of driving. In Port Huron just about 8pm,  it was so dark and wet one could barely make out the road. Rained continuously down I69. As I got to I94 Heading west Kalamazoo was sheets of rain around 10pm. I pulled the RV over and had to take a break. Warmed up a few frozen burritos and a quick coffee and I was back under way. Around Hammond the sky was lit, buckets of water and wind. I stopped at a Pilot because I missed a off ramp in a construction area. While there I went for a quick washroom break and buckled back in. Looked around me and the RV was standing in 3 inches of water. As I was pulling out of the parking lot there was a lightning strike perhaps 200 yds in front of me. By the time I hit downtown Chicago things were getting back to normal just a steady rain but the storm had passed. Finally arriving in the Schaumburg region around 2am.  Its was still raining then and continued well into my sleep.

Good thing my daughters morning soccer game was indoors and well worth the drive. Girls won 4-1 and by 11am I was back on the road returning to Windsor. Caught a nice tailwind home.

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