BuffaloWeather Posted October 9, 2017 Share Posted October 9, 2017 1.31" of rain overnight from remnants of Nate. Definitely needed the rain here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 9, 2017 Share Posted October 9, 2017 On 10/9/2017 at 3:00 PM, hawkeye_wx said: It's looking pretty good for more soaking rainfall across the dry western part of the subforum over the next week... first on Tuesday, then again this weekend. The grass has already sprung back to life, big time. Tuesday is going to be the coldest of the season so far around here.... 50s, rainy, windy. Expand Yeah I'm liking the look of this. Euro is showing a few swaths of 2.5-3.5" rains. Some decent winds just off the deck of 30-40kts could be mixed down during the heavier downpours tomorrow. Also wouldn't be surprised to see some gravity waves bring some of that down with the amount of convection being forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 9, 2017 Author Share Posted October 9, 2017 ^I'm cautious after models generally overdid qpf with the last system, but a general 0.5-1" looks possible farther east. Heavier amounts possible farther west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 9, 2017 Author Share Posted October 9, 2017 The center of Nate ended up getting pretty far north. Even outside of the NHC cone from yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 9, 2017 Author Share Posted October 9, 2017 12z Euro came in with over 3" of rain here. Big increase from previous runs and really no other support for totals like that in this area so I'd be skeptical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 9, 2017 Share Posted October 9, 2017 Euro backed off on amounts here. Looks like things may be trending a little east. I'll be happy if we can muster an inch out of this. Big temp range across Iowa. 82 in the southeast corner, and 48 out in the northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 9, 2017 Author Share Posted October 9, 2017 ORD has hit 80. Probably another chance at least on Fri. Then climo becomes increasingly hostile especially by the last week of October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted October 9, 2017 Share Posted October 9, 2017 On 10/9/2017 at 6:59 PM, cyclone77 said: Euro backed off on amounts here. Looks like things may be trending a little east. I'll be happy if we can muster an inch out of this. Big temp range across Iowa. 82 in the southeast corner, and 48 out in the northwest. Expand Wow, I did not realize the spread was that large today. Tomorrow, the Euro has part of western Iowa stuck in the low 40s all day, with wind. I'm not ready for that stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 9, 2017 Share Posted October 9, 2017 Hit 80 here as well today. Spectacular day with no clouds and low humidity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted October 9, 2017 Share Posted October 9, 2017 On 10/9/2017 at 1:59 AM, Jonger said: We are definitely stuck in a pattern. Expand Yep, but unlike last year when the Nov flip nvr happened, I think we turn a corner for this Nov. A lot of indications already showing up that weren't there with last year's pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted October 9, 2017 Share Posted October 9, 2017 Hit 83 here today, felt nice, but man, I just want a seasonable October. NOAA 8-14 day temperature outlook features very warm temps for the October 17-23 timeframe. Ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted October 9, 2017 Share Posted October 9, 2017 Very warm anomalies centered dead center over the lakes, should prime them for hopefully an epic lake effect season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 10, 2017 Share Posted October 10, 2017 On 10/9/2017 at 11:36 PM, Chambana said: Hit 83 here today, felt nice, but man, I just want a seasonable October. NOAA 8-14 day temperature outlook features very warm temps for the October 17-23 timeframe. Ugh. Expand Love it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted October 10, 2017 Share Posted October 10, 2017 On 10/9/2017 at 11:40 PM, Chambana said: Very warm anomalies centered dead center over the lakes, should prime them for hopefully an epic lake effect season. Expand While that may be, those maps are not a grid of temp anomalies, it's just showing the likelihood that temps will be above normal during this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted October 10, 2017 Share Posted October 10, 2017 Took this on the way home from work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainsucks Posted October 10, 2017 Share Posted October 10, 2017 On 10/9/2017 at 10:42 PM, RogueWaves said: Yep, but unlike last year when the Nov flip nvr happened, I think we turn a corner for this Nov. A lot of indications already showing up that weren't there with last year's pattern. Expand lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainsucks Posted October 10, 2017 Share Posted October 10, 2017 This doesn't look promising for a cold nov... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 10, 2017 Author Share Posted October 10, 2017 Yeah, I'm not sure about a colder than average November. Not having an all out torch would be a start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMatt21 Posted October 10, 2017 Share Posted October 10, 2017 On 10/10/2017 at 1:51 AM, rainsucks said: This doesn't look promising for a cold nov... Expand It is October 9th...and the CFS...expect that map to change between now and the end of the month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMatt21 Posted October 10, 2017 Share Posted October 10, 2017 On 10/10/2017 at 2:19 AM, Hoosier said: Yeah, I'm not sure about a colder than average November. Not having an all out torch would be a start. Expand This. If we're going to crank up the heat, might as well be this time of year. 1-2º above average, overall, in November would actually be pretty decent. An endless string of +10-20º departures would get pretty old, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 10, 2017 Share Posted October 10, 2017 On 10/10/2017 at 2:19 AM, Hoosier said: Yeah, I'm not sure about a colder than average November. Not having an all out torch would be a start. Expand I would bet on a warm beginning of November just because of a continuation of late October which looks warm and locked in at this point on long range projections. Usually in La Ninas though the flip is dramatic, and I would expect it to happen around Nov 10-15th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted October 10, 2017 Share Posted October 10, 2017 Beauty day here today. 73/58. Some light showers in the morning from Nate remnants but cleared up by noon. Fog advisory tonight. Keep the above normal coming for October. Best cycling weather. A quick flip mid-November sounds nice too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted October 10, 2017 Share Posted October 10, 2017 Cfs maps for the following month are useless until the last few days of the month. This has been discussed many times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted October 10, 2017 Share Posted October 10, 2017 A mid November flip is great because that's when winter mode kicks into high gear, but still more crisp days than we've had would be nice to enjoy the color. I will lol if it's a cold spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted October 10, 2017 Share Posted October 10, 2017 It almost looks like the CFS is calling for a repeat of last November, which was above normal over the entire continent. We were essentially the only area at our latitude above normal during November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted October 10, 2017 Share Posted October 10, 2017 I'm enjoying the dry dirt roads that I'm forced to drive on... but man, this pattern has been so boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted October 10, 2017 Share Posted October 10, 2017 On 10/10/2017 at 7:48 PM, Jonger said: I'm enjoying the dry dirt roads that I'm forced to drive on... but man, this pattern has been so boring. Expand I think that's due to come to an end though. Boring pattern might even be in jeopardy going forward with the new SRC kicking off. Stay tuned.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted October 10, 2017 Share Posted October 10, 2017 That map looks like NAM was a massive mushroom cloud of incineration! LOL, did I live that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 10, 2017 Share Posted October 10, 2017 On 10/10/2017 at 3:19 AM, Stebo said: I would bet on a warm beginning of November just because of a continuation of late October which looks warm and locked in at this point on long range projections. Usually in La Ninas though the flip is dramatic, and I would expect it to happen around Nov 10-15th Expand Actually looking at the longer range MJO, going into next month the change might come sooner than I originally thought, especially if the MJO takes up a position in phase 5 at a high magnitude like some of the current projections show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted October 10, 2017 Share Posted October 10, 2017 On 10/10/2017 at 5:04 PM, michsnowfreak said: Cfs maps for the following month are useless until the last few days of the month. This has been discussed many times. Expand Remember, his deck is full of hot cards so that's the only kind he'll play.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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