Hoosier Posted September 23, 2017 Share Posted September 23, 2017 Month will open on a cool note before quick moderation occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 23, 2017 Share Posted September 23, 2017 Looking at the 5th to 15th bringing another warm to very warm period. Ensembles seem to be pointing in that direction which would line up with the MJO projection as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 23, 2017 Author Share Posted September 23, 2017 7 minutes ago, Stebo said: Looking at the 5th to 15th bringing another warm to very warm period. Ensembles seem to be pointing in that direction which would line up with the MJO projection as well. Yep. Warm anomalies look more pronounced the farther north you go, but it's probably a warmer than avg regime everywhere. By the time the warmth really kicks in, it's awfully difficult to realize 90 degree temps, but could be plenty of 70s and 80s on warmer days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted September 23, 2017 Share Posted September 23, 2017 4 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Yep. Warm anomalies look more pronounced the farther north you go, but it's probably a warmer than avg regime everywhere. By the time the warmth really kicks in, it's awfully difficult to realize 90 degree temps, but could be plenty of 70s and 80s on warmer days. That would be sweet if it comes to fruition. I root for 70's anytime in October. After the first week of November, flip the switch to winter. (Can you tell that autumn is my least favorite season?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted September 23, 2017 Share Posted September 23, 2017 Cool down can't come fast enough for me even if it is short lived. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 23, 2017 Share Posted September 23, 2017 24 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Yep. Warm anomalies look more pronounced the farther north you go, but it's probably a warmer than avg regime everywhere. By the time the warmth really kicks in, it's awfully difficult to realize 90 degree temps, but could be plenty of 70s and 80s on warmer days. Yeah 90s will be hard but I could see a nice stretch of upper 70s and 80s. Which by thay point would be 15 to 20 above normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted September 23, 2017 Share Posted September 23, 2017 We'd probably find Jonger in the fetal position if a string of 70s and 80s occur in October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted September 23, 2017 Share Posted September 23, 2017 Just something about a 60 degree dark gray overcast October day. I love it. Wonder if the La Niña makes her effects felt next month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 23, 2017 Author Share Posted September 23, 2017 1 hour ago, Stebo said: Yeah 90s will be hard but I could see a nice stretch of upper 70s and 80s. Which by thay point would be 15 to 20 above normal. It's fantasy land, but the op GFS verbatim would actually suggest some areas flirting with 90 (upper 80s highs) by the 5th or 6th. Although rare, history says it can happen in the first week of October, and can still get pretty close even into mid October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 23, 2017 Author Share Posted September 23, 2017 8 minutes ago, Angrysummons said: Hoosier is on a heatpage after the last few days. 70 degrees is good enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 24, 2017 Share Posted September 24, 2017 2 hours ago, Hoosier said: It's fantasy land, but the op GFS verbatim would actually suggest some areas flirting with 90 (upper 80s highs) by the 5th or 6th. Although rare, history says it can happen in the first week of October, and can still get pretty close even into mid October. Yeah I noticed, I don't want to go that bold because it about 20-25 above normal by that point. It would be interesting to see if it happens. 2007 it did hit 90 here in Detroit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainsucks Posted September 24, 2017 Share Posted September 24, 2017 Oct 1963 redux please. Love a warm fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted September 24, 2017 Share Posted September 24, 2017 It's interesting that some people get irritated when people root for cold but then some do the same thing by rooting for warm lol. I prefer lots of crisp air in October because i love Fall so much. Obviously with the averages and daylight continuously dropping, warmer than normal is not always a bad thing as long as it's not extreme. October is a month where yes it's possible to see a few actual hot days and likewise it can snow, but by and large it's a comfortable month regardless which side of normal it falls on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 24, 2017 Author Share Posted September 24, 2017 GFS has backed off on the cooldown to open the month. Euro still hanging on to it. In any event, the floodgates of warmth open up again (not just on the op runs, but ensembles generally agree). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted September 24, 2017 Share Posted September 24, 2017 Yeah, that's a mean-looking western trough. This upcoming warm up's going to have some staying power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted September 24, 2017 Share Posted September 24, 2017 With no significant precipitation expected, will have to start worrying about the growing / worsening drought conditions as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 24, 2017 Share Posted September 24, 2017 7 hours ago, Hoosier said: GFS has backed off on the cooldown to open the month. Euro still hanging on to it. In any event, the floodgates of warmth open up again (not just on the op runs, but ensembles generally agree). There are cracks in the foundation of the Euro's cool down too, the ensembles came in much warmer than the op. There was still a cool down for a couple of days but it is a cool down to 2-5 below normal then right back up above normal by the 3rd. To be honest the only really cool day where highs might struggle to make it into the 60s locally is the 30th per the op Euro and the ensemble mean is 65 that day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 24, 2017 Author Share Posted September 24, 2017 12z GFS is like a total reversal in the super extended range. Much cooler look... delays the big warmup. Will be curious to see ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainsucks Posted September 24, 2017 Share Posted September 24, 2017 47 minutes ago, Hoosier said: 12z GFS is like a total reversal in the super extended range. Much cooler look... delays the big warmup. Will be curious to see ensembles. Fluke run, probably a computing error if I had to guess. Remember the GFS doing something similar a few other times earlier in the year before going back to its original solution. Really wish these models were more consistent though. Looks like it has no ensemble support either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 24, 2017 Author Share Posted September 24, 2017 Yeah the 12z ensemble mean is completely at odds with the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted September 24, 2017 Share Posted September 24, 2017 Don't know which thread to post this, but does anyone notice the gfs temp anomaly maps on tidbits have unrealistic heat bubbles over the big cities? No matter how warm or cold it is. Idk if that's the gfs idea of accounting for UHI but it looks ridiculous lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted September 25, 2017 Share Posted September 25, 2017 Don't know which thread to post this, but does anyone notice the gfs temp anomaly maps on tidbits have unrealistic heat bubbles over the big cities? No matter how warm or cold it is. Idk if that's the gfs idea of accounting for UHI but it looks ridiculous lol.It appears to be related to the recent GFS upgrade. I noticed on raw 2m temps it tends to do better in the cities on hot days but still too cool outside the cities. So on projected warm days in the medium range, the anomaly maps will be more pronounced over the cities for that reason, that the warmer output over the urban areas will make them father above normal there. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 25, 2017 Author Share Posted September 25, 2017 It will be "fun" to see what happens if we go into the next ridge pattern without significant rains in the meantime, which looks possible in a number of areas. How high can you go? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 25, 2017 Share Posted September 25, 2017 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: It will be "fun" to see what happens if we go into the next ridge pattern without significant rains in the meantime, which looks possible in a number of areas. How high can you go? If we don't get any rain between now and then and we set up a similar pattern, I can't see us knocking too much off the temp. Definitely think 90 would be in range in many locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 25, 2017 Author Share Posted September 25, 2017 1 minute ago, Stebo said: If we don't get any rain between now and then and we set up a similar pattern, I can't see us knocking too much off the temp. Definitely think 90 would be in range in many locations. I kind of can't believe the signal showing up on the ensembles and many of the op runs... coming so soon after the current stretch. It won't be easy to match the absolute temps we've been seeing, but dang it's a warm look overall, and not just a 1 or 2 day thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 25, 2017 Share Posted September 25, 2017 Just now, Hoosier said: I kind of can't believe the signal showing up on the ensembles and many of the op runs... coming so soon after the current stretch. It won't be easy to match the absolute temps we've been seeing, but dang it's a warm look overall, and not just a 1 or 2 day thing. Here's the thing, the signal is stronger this time than at this range for the current heat wave. I think people are brushing it back because it would be so soon but the ensembles don't usually show a signal this strong this close in to back off. It is going to be warm to hot after this brief cool snap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 25, 2017 Share Posted September 25, 2017 Another thing to watch is placement of the ridge too, if something forms in the Caribbean it could force the ridge northward even more as the system bucks into it. That could really get things to heat up even more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted September 25, 2017 Share Posted September 25, 2017 I'd rather have had this in July.... it's now wasting our best weather of the year. kids don't want to play outside, A.C. bill is sky high and the grass is dead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted September 25, 2017 Share Posted September 25, 2017 and the lakes are cold. So it's pretty much worthless. I'm booked at a Grayling campground for the second weekend in October and anything over 80 and I'm canceling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted September 26, 2017 Share Posted September 26, 2017 I'd rather have had this in July.... it's now wasting our best weather of the year. kids don't want to play outside, A.C. bill is sky high and the grass is dead.Kids don't want to play outside? Everyone imaginable has been outside. Pools filled, runners everywhere, people biking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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