yoda Posted September 23, 2017 Share Posted September 23, 2017 5pm track is still east of the EURO/UKIE/GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted September 23, 2017 Share Posted September 23, 2017 12z EPS shifted east. Still some landfall tracks, but not as many as 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted September 23, 2017 Share Posted September 23, 2017 18z GFS shifted west of 12z. Showing a direct OBX hit before the trough begins to push Maria out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted September 23, 2017 Share Posted September 23, 2017 12 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: 18z GFS shifted west of 12z. Showing a direct OBX hit before the trough begins to push Maria out. My parents are heading to OBX tomorrow. I'm kind of jealous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 23, 2017 Share Posted September 23, 2017 Too bad there's no trough, vort, or boundary to the north or west of Maria to interact and expand the wind and/or precip shield. Even a pressure gradient would give us some breezes but there isn't even that. The storm is unusually compact for mid latitudes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted September 23, 2017 Share Posted September 23, 2017 Since this is the IMBY thread, what does the current track deliver for the VA, DC, Baltimore area? I assume its nothing more than clouds, a breeze or two, and a conversation shower. Maybe some Chesapeake Bay flooding? Its a shame it wants to hook so hard east, if it could stay closer to the coast on its way up, I think it would be more significant. I'd love a day off from work, or at least a bit of media hype here or there. But for now, my goal is to see this have an official USA landfall, such would buck the "10% odds" it was given at one point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted September 24, 2017 Author Share Posted September 24, 2017 14 minutes ago, Mdecoy said: Since this is the IMBY thread, what does the current track deliver for the VA, DC, Baltimore area? I assume its nothing more than clouds, a breeze or two, and a conversation shower. Maybe some Chesapeake Bay flooding? Its a shame it wants to hook so hard east, if it could stay closer to the coast on its way up, I think it would be more significant. I'd love a day off from work, or at least a bit of media hype here or there. But for now, my goal is to see this have an official USA landfall, such would buck the "10% odds" it was given at one point. My bad. I hope it was worth it to you all? lol eta: 11 pages might be a record for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted September 24, 2017 Author Share Posted September 24, 2017 Lee may have a better chance to fujiwhara around Maria than Jose. Not a bad look! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 24, 2017 Share Posted September 24, 2017 Maria sits around OBX from 90-102 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted September 24, 2017 Share Posted September 24, 2017 2 minutes ago, yoda said: Maria sits around OBX from 90-102 That scenario will be ugly for them...we will be lucky to have clouds and breezes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted September 24, 2017 Share Posted September 24, 2017 6z GFS a significant shift east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rsheely88 Posted September 24, 2017 Share Posted September 24, 2017 21 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: 0z Op Euro made its closest approach yet to NC and looks to get possible hurricane force gusts to the obx . The Eps also made a sizeable jump west...no surprise . Left is 0z right 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted September 24, 2017 Share Posted September 24, 2017 GFS a hair further east again at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveVa Posted September 24, 2017 Share Posted September 24, 2017 19 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: With all the op guidance in now for 12z, I think we see at least TS watches for the Outer Banks of NC with the next advisory package. SE VA looks good for some TS gusts verbatim, but not sure they get covered. Agree. I presume the watch cut off will be NC/VA border. Still, wouldn't be surprised if they extended the watch up to VA eastern shore though, NHC isn't that conservative with regard to issuing TS watches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveVa Posted September 24, 2017 Share Posted September 24, 2017 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: Could be better, but I think you're in a good spot for some action. Good luck Thanks! I wish it wasn't a weekday, otherwise I would drive down to at least Nags Head. Probably wouldn't dare (pun intended) to go farther south due to road being about 1 foot above sea level lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveVa Posted September 24, 2017 Share Posted September 24, 2017 6 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Same. I may have some time to do it, but my Wednesday looks awful lol. I've never been to the Outer Banks. I was considering Hatteras a few days ago but traveling there for a storm like this probably isn't a show up one day and easily leave the next type deal. Currently thinking Nags Head or Kill Devil Hills but now I'm worried that I'll get there and they'll close Wright Memorial Bridge before I can get back across it lol. Outer Banks are great! You should visit them even without a potential hurricane landfall lol I don't think bridge closing should be a problem if we take Hampton Roads bridges as an example. They don't close the CBBT or HRBT for all traffic unless there are 65+ MPH winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted September 24, 2017 Share Posted September 24, 2017 2 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: Same. I may have some time to do it, but my Wednesday looks awful lol. I've never been to the Outer Banks. I was considering Hatteras a few days ago but traveling there for a storm like this probably isn't a show up one day and easily leave the next type deal. Currently thinking Nags Head or Kill Devil Hills but now I'm worried that I'll get there and they'll close Wright Memorial Bridge before I can get back across it lol. Love the OBX. Nags Head/Kitty Hawk/KDH are great areas. Just an FYI, anything south of the Bonner Bridge (Hatteras Island) is prone to Overwash from the ocean. They close Highway 12 at times during/after the overwash to clear the water and and use heavy machinery to push back the sand dunes. Might get stuck down on Hatteras for a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted September 25, 2017 Share Posted September 25, 2017 3 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: Thanks. Will need to look at my schedule and the models in the morning to see if I have a window to get down there. If I do, it'll almost certainly be in KDH area. Ideally, I'd like to stay until things settle on Thursday but I might need to leave Wednesday morning. KDH/Kitty Hawk/Nags Head are all great areas. I am pretty familiar with those areas if you have any questions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 25, 2017 Share Posted September 25, 2017 Here's a great cam down OBX. It's the Hilton Garden Inn at Kitty Hawk. It pans around the hotel grounds but most of the views are of the beach. I recommend the hotel too! It's where my wife and I stay when we're not getting a house. Great location for restaurants as well! http://www.obxcams.com/hilton_inn.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted September 25, 2017 Share Posted September 25, 2017 38 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I'll regret it since I love tropical, but not sure it's worth spending money going down there for what could be minimal TS conditions. Good for NC though, we don't really need another big US strike. Doesn't seem worth the trip based on the latest NHC track and intensity forecast. Having lived 5 miles from the beach in NJ and gone down there for a number of tropical storm passes, it was hardly even worth the 5 miles trip many times. The only one that impressed me was Isabel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 25, 2017 Share Posted September 25, 2017 44 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Thanks for sharing. Look at those waves! I might have to reconsider lol. Here's another one from Avalon Pier in KDH. Go full screen and you're almost there! http://www.avalonpier.com/piercam.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted September 25, 2017 Share Posted September 25, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted September 25, 2017 Share Posted September 25, 2017 Many people don't realize how loaded the NC coast was with enemy U-Boats during WWII. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted September 26, 2017 Share Posted September 26, 2017 https://twitter.com/crankywxguy/status/912467267417444352 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 26, 2017 Share Posted September 26, 2017 3 hours ago, smokeybandit said: Many people don't realize how loaded the NC coast was with enemy U-Boats during WWII. When I first visited Nags Head in 1965, we would drive to Hatteras and there were 2 conning towers from German subs only around 200 feet off the beach. They've since collapsed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveVa Posted September 26, 2017 Share Posted September 26, 2017 Does anyone know will the Frying Pan live stream be up for Maria? There were some crazy shots coming from there during Matthew when the dude was chilling in a hammock on the helipad in almost hurricane force winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted September 26, 2017 Share Posted September 26, 2017 How is this still even a Hurricane? Doesn't look like much impact on NC since the convection is all on the east side. Maybe a few clouds up here from Maria? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted September 26, 2017 Share Posted September 26, 2017 Looks like a good surfing day. Probably not good for much else outside. I'm still jealous of my parents being down there this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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