Amped Posted September 22, 2017 Share Posted September 22, 2017 Whaa, gfs stalls east of cape hat this run. It will be onshore at 00z if this trend keeps up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted September 22, 2017 Share Posted September 22, 2017 I hope the stalled TCs in our hood is not the new normal. Stuff is driving me crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted September 22, 2017 Author Share Posted September 22, 2017 Someone may lose some hair. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted September 22, 2017 Share Posted September 22, 2017 Token frontal enhancement, I will take it. Keep it shifting west for the DC crew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted September 22, 2017 Share Posted September 22, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 22, 2017 Share Posted September 22, 2017 2 hours ago, smokeybandit said: https://twitter.com/crankywxguy/status/911335998994427904 Yeah that cluster does seem like it's screwing with the flow above 300mb quite a bit and allowing the flow to back into the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted September 23, 2017 Author Share Posted September 23, 2017 Listen to Levi @8:40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 23, 2017 Share Posted September 23, 2017 9 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Also ..looking at this it looks like a sizeable vort package/ bag evident in the se...maybe having influence. 27 and 30 hours out 18z gfs More crapvection off the florida west coast now. 00z will be very interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted September 23, 2017 Share Posted September 23, 2017 1 hour ago, Amped said: Yeah that cluster does seem like it's screwing with the flow above 300mb quite a bit and allowing the flow to back into the coast. So this is an unrelated cluster of thunderstorms that's throwing in this unexpected variable? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 23, 2017 Share Posted September 23, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 23, 2017 Share Posted September 23, 2017 10 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: So this is an unrelated cluster of thunderstorms that's throwing in this unexpected variable? Lol Possibly, but it's not totally unrelated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted September 23, 2017 Author Share Posted September 23, 2017 2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: @Amped..that's pretty neat animation man..cool stuff. especially considering it's all moving forward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 23, 2017 Share Posted September 23, 2017 00z GFS getting close to OBX at 108 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted September 23, 2017 Author Share Posted September 23, 2017 0Z gfs supports why we're here. (ninja Yoda) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 23, 2017 Share Posted September 23, 2017 Outer Banks def hit by Maria on this run before getting kicked out starting at 126 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 23, 2017 Share Posted September 23, 2017 Similar to 18z, very odd solution. Ridge sits on top of the storm for 48hrs, but it won't turn west until the 200mb jet streak forms in the gulf and cuts off the low. Then it shoots back west for 18hrs before the troff pushes it back east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted September 23, 2017 Author Share Posted September 23, 2017 Just now, Amped said: Similar to 18z, very odd solution. Ridge sits on top of the storm for 48hrs, but it won't turn west until the 200mb jet streak forms in the gulf and cuts off the low. Then it shoots back west for 18hrs before the troff pushes it back east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 23, 2017 Share Posted September 23, 2017 Just now, BTRWx said: 18z was odd too CMC at least has a gentler turn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 23, 2017 Share Posted September 23, 2017 00z GGEM is naso good for the Eastern Shore... Maria moves slowly up the Eastern Seaboard just offshore from 84-120 And I mean S L O W -- 84 its by OBX... 120 its by Ocean City... maybe a tad closer to Atlantic City... by 144 its finally gone NE out to sea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted September 23, 2017 Author Share Posted September 23, 2017 Alrighty then! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted September 23, 2017 Share Posted September 23, 2017 Euro shifts significantly west at 120 close to OBX then trough begins to push her out at 144. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted September 23, 2017 Share Posted September 23, 2017 2 hours ago, BTRWx said: Alrighty then! That looks close enough to N VA to offer us a few rainbands before it gets kicked out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted September 23, 2017 Share Posted September 23, 2017 Caution certainly warranted because a couple of days ago this was hooking 300+ miles out to sea with essentially no chance of hitting the USA. Amazing how unpredictable all this is. Certainly interesting though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted September 23, 2017 Share Posted September 23, 2017 My parents are headed to OBX next Saturday. Maria should be long gone by then but what will they have to deal with when they get there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted September 23, 2017 Share Posted September 23, 2017 6z GFS slows it down off OBX for 48 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted September 23, 2017 Share Posted September 23, 2017 Can someone post the 0z EPS members? I feel like this one is slipping away due to the extreme blocking over Scandinavia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted September 23, 2017 Share Posted September 23, 2017 12z slightly faster at 78. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted September 23, 2017 Author Share Posted September 23, 2017 19 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said: Can someone post the 0z EPS members? I feel like this one is slipping away due to the extreme blocking over Scandinavia. Chaos! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted September 23, 2017 Share Posted September 23, 2017 35 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said: Can someone post the 0z EPS members? I feel like this one is slipping away due to the extreme blocking over Scandinavia. Is that the reason it can't seem to come any further north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 23, 2017 Share Posted September 23, 2017 Hurricane Maria Discussion Number 31 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 500 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017 Maria's eye became cloud filled again today, although convective cloud tops have been cooling within the eyewall during the past couple of hours. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter plane conducting a research mission has not yet sampled the entire circulation, but they did report that the central pressure had fallen by a couple of millibars. In addition, a Coyote unmanned aerial vehicle launched by the plane has been measuring winds of 120-125 kt at altitudes of 1200-1300 ft, which supports maximum surface winds of 100 kt. The initial motion remains north-northwestward, or 345/8 kt, but Maria is expected to turn northward by this evening or overnight while moving between a mid-level high near Bermuda and a cut-off low over the northeastern Gulf coast. A blocking ridge sliding eastward over the northeastern U.S. should cause Maria to slow down to a forward motion of 5 kt or less beginning in about 36 hours, lasting through the end of the forecast period. The track models appear to have stabilized for the moment, with this being the first cycle in about a day where they have not shown a significant westward shift. Therefore, the updated NHC track forecast is relatively unchanged from the previous forecast during the first 3 days. The day 4 point was shifted a little closer to the North Carolina coast to be closer to the consensus aids and the Florida State Superensemble, and all the models indicate that a northeastward motion away from the coast should begin by day 5. Vertical shear will remain relatively low over Maria for the next several days, and the hurricane will be moving over warm waters at least for the next 3 days. However, the depth of the thermocline does become more shallow, with oceanic heat content values steadily decreasing over the next 36 hours. With Maria expected to slow down, upwelling of colder water becomes a greater factor, and that could modulate the hurricane's intensity during the next several days. Maria also could still move over Jose's cold wake in 4-5 days, which would likely cause additional weakening. The NHC intensity forecast remains just above the intensity consensus, however it should be noted that the normally skillful HCCA model is toward the lower end of the guidance suite. It therefore wouldn't be surprising if Maria weakened more than shown in the official forecast. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Maria's forecast track has shifted closer to the U.S. east coast, and it is becoming increasingly likely that some direct impacts will occur along portions of the coast next week. Interests along the coast of the Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic should monitor the progress of Maria, as tropical storm or hurricane watches may be needed for part of this area on Sunday. 2. Swells from Maria are increasing along the coast of the southeastern United States and are expected to reach the Mid-Atlantic coast tonight and on Sunday. These swells will likely cause dangerous surf and rip currents at the beach through much of next week. For more information, please monitor information from your local National Weather Service office at www.weather.gov. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 26.3N 72.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 24/0600Z 27.6N 72.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 24/1800Z 29.1N 73.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 25/0600Z 30.1N 73.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 25/1800Z 31.1N 73.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 26/1800Z 32.9N 73.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 27/1800Z 34.5N 73.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 28/1800Z 35.0N 72.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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