schinz Posted September 21, 2017 Share Posted September 21, 2017 I guess we should be looking for some indication that Jose is weakening faster than the GFS and Euro think it will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 21, 2017 Share Posted September 21, 2017 1 minute ago, schinz said: I guess we should be looking for some indication that Jose is weakening faster than the GFS and Euro think it will. Not really honestly. Jose could be out of the picture and there is still a hostile pattern in front of Maria for US impacts. Maria would likely get closer to the US if Jose was gone but the upper level pattern does not support much westward movement. Once the trough approaches it will kick the storm east either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schinz Posted September 21, 2017 Share Posted September 21, 2017 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I guess we should be looking for some indication that Jose is weakening faster than the GFS and Euro think it will. And I assume we are getting close enough to the short range that a faster Maria or slower trough is not in the cards? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 21, 2017 Share Posted September 21, 2017 1 minute ago, schinz said: And I assume we are getting close enough to the short range that a faster Maria or slower trough is not in the cards? Look at the mslp, h5 and jet panels. Faster or slower really doesn't make much difference for US landfall when there is nothing to force the storm west. The only way I could see it happening in my mind is that it slows down so much that the incoming trough next week passes out in front of it the high pressure behind it sits right over top and slides slowly east. Something like that could force it west. Other than that there is nothing but an easy path north and then east on the pressure panels. All guidance looks about the same @ hr72. There is literally no hp to the north of the storm. That 1021 hp isn't stopping or turning anything to the west and it fades as you move forward in time. The closest strong hp is all the way up in central Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveVa Posted September 21, 2017 Share Posted September 21, 2017 My $0.02 I feel bad for the actual mets that read some of the posts in the main thread. Every time there is a chance of a high US impact event the main thread turns into a crapstorm (especially during Irma) I don't have high hopes for Maria, if I were to bet I'd say she'll ever get closer to CONUS than Jose using OBX as a reference point. Using my untrained eye I can't find anything to suggest she'll get nudged west far enough for LF, the high pressure looks transient and pretty weak. On the upside, the through that eventually kicks Maria OTS should really knock down our temps, I see lows in the 40s in the mid atlantic according to GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted September 21, 2017 Share Posted September 21, 2017 24 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Look at the mslp, h5 and jet panels. Faster or slower really doesn't make much difference for US landfall when there is nothing to force the storm west. The only way I could see it happening in my mind is that it slows down so much that the incoming trough next week passes out in front of it the high pressure behind it sits right over top and slides slowly east. Something like that could force it west. Other than that there is nothing but an easy path north and then east on the pressure panels. All guidance looks about the same @ hr72. There is literally no hp to the north of the storm. That 1021 hp isn't stopping or turning anything to the west and it fades as you move forward in time. The closest strong hp is all the way up in central Canada. In fairness to schinz's original point, the above panel would look different if Jose were gone. The 12z CMC paints that picture: a 1026 high fills in over eastern Canada which is just enough to nudge Maria to the west before the trough gets here. The Euro of course is probably right, but if Jose were to die off more quickly it too would probably have Maria coming more to the west. You can see this if you compare the Euro's current setup to the one it had four nights ago, where Jose died by 00z Monday and the high that replaced it caused a Carolina landfall for Maria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted September 21, 2017 Share Posted September 21, 2017 12z Ukie is way OTS. The farthest east of any of the globals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted September 21, 2017 Share Posted September 21, 2017 42 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Not really honestly. Jose could be out of the picture and there is still a hostile pattern in front of Maria for US impacts. Maria would likely get closer to the US if Jose was gone but the upper level pattern does not support much westward movement. Once the trough approaches it will kick the storm east either way. I'm not an expert on steering patterns so appreciate everyones knowledge on the dynamics. I have learned a lot here. One question, why do several EPS ensembles have landfall in our area. What factors are causing those members to show impacts here. Did they initialize wrong? Just curious. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 21, 2017 Share Posted September 21, 2017 2 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: I'm not an expert on steering patterns so appreciate everyones knowledge on the dynamics. I have learned a lot here. One question, why do several EPS ensembles have landfall in our area. What factors are causing those members to show impacts here. Did they initialize wrong? Just curious. Thanks. I guess the easiest way to explain it is that all globals and ensembles initialize wrong because it's impossible to model the atmosphere 100% accurately. The ens also initialize with slightly different initial conditions than their parent op. Inside of those variances is a wide range of solutions and that generated a couple of notable outliers that make landfall. I would have to see the individual member panels to figure out how they get to where they got. With such an overwhelming consensus keeping maria off shore it really doesn't matter much right now. If we start seeing a landfall gaining traction with at least a quarter of the members of the various ens suites then some heavy dissecting will be going on across the entire forum. Your post made me curious about the CMC ensembles though so I took a look. Not a single one agrees with the op. It's safe to say for now that the CMC is way out there with the 12z op run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 21, 2017 Share Posted September 21, 2017 CMC was initailized at 992mb. That may explain why it's solution is crap. It also frequently mishandles the pattern in the MR during winter. Looks like Maria gets captured by Jose, which was captured by Irma. Maybe Maria will stall off the EC and capture the next storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schinz Posted September 22, 2017 Share Posted September 22, 2017 Interesting little spin up just off the outer banks at the end of this morning's gfs run.....hmmm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted September 22, 2017 Share Posted September 22, 2017 The 12Z GFS is *much* closer to the coast. A solution like that would require tropical storm warnings for at least the Outer Banks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted September 22, 2017 Share Posted September 22, 2017 A Decent shift W on the 12z GFS. Looks like Maria takes a left hook before trough pushes her out. Timing is key. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 22, 2017 Share Posted September 22, 2017 Ha, looks like the WAR strengthens a bit allowing Maria to move more west before the trough kicks it back OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted September 22, 2017 Share Posted September 22, 2017 GFS looks like last night's EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 22, 2017 Share Posted September 22, 2017 just think if the trough were to slow down... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 22, 2017 Share Posted September 22, 2017 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: Another tick west on the Ukie? Hard to tell with those God awful maps. It looks that way on meteocentre Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted September 22, 2017 Author Share Posted September 22, 2017 17 minutes ago, mappy said: just think if the trough were to slow down... I'd rather see a stronger ridge to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schinz Posted September 22, 2017 Share Posted September 22, 2017 10 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Thanks. I still don't think Maria's walking through that door, but if it gets close enough for a legit scrape that'd be a little fun. That's the boat I am in. I will be in Brigantine, New Jersey, a half block from the ocean all next week and all I need is a close scrape!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted September 22, 2017 Share Posted September 22, 2017 UKMET also shifted significantly west close to OBX. GEM has a Delmarva impact. Trough is more elongated and not dug in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted September 22, 2017 Share Posted September 22, 2017 4 minutes ago, schinz said: That's the boat I am in. I will be in Brigantine, New Jersey, a half block from the ocean all next week and all I need is a close scrape!! That's what I'm pulling for myself! I'll be in Bethany from wednesday through the weekend. Just give me some nice size breakers...a little coastal flooding would be the topper... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted September 22, 2017 Share Posted September 22, 2017 4 minutes ago, poolz1 said: That's what I'm pulling for myself! I'll be in Bethany from wednesday through the weekend. Just give me some nice size breakers...a little coastal flooding would be the topper... Jose caused "officially" moderate coastal flooding at Lewes. I think it's pretty likely you'll see some coastal flooding with Maria too even if it doesn't come as far west as the globals are showing so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted September 22, 2017 Share Posted September 22, 2017 Just now, gymengineer said: Jose caused "officially" moderate coastal flooding at Lewes. I think it's pretty likely you'll see some coastal flooding with Maria too even if it doesn't come as far west as the globals are showing so far. Sorry for the banterish comments... Just looked at the GEFS and to be honest, I cant help but be a little concerned. This little trip to Bethany is a replacement of a trip that supposed to be to Key West...no go. We were about to pull the trigger on PR after canceling Key West...no go. Decided on just a local getaway...if for some reason this gets canceled...we give up. Yes, I understood the risks of a trip in late september to the keys...thought I would roll the dice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted September 22, 2017 Share Posted September 22, 2017 39 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: UKMET also shifted significantly west close to OBX. GEM has a Delmarva impact. Trough is more elongated and not dug in. H5 on the GEM and GFS looks similar, but the GEM just gets Maria here faster so Maria makes it farther north before being picked up by the trough. I suspect the GFS has a much better handle on Maria's speed than the GEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted September 22, 2017 Author Share Posted September 22, 2017 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: Mrefs 120 What are the mrefs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted September 22, 2017 Share Posted September 22, 2017 well maria isn't following the models(read that somewhere) so anything is game, guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted September 22, 2017 Author Share Posted September 22, 2017 Hrs 96 to 120 on the 12Z euro goes from a ridge to a trough signal rather abruptly! 96 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schinz Posted September 22, 2017 Share Posted September 22, 2017 48 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: All 22 gefs at 120 http://www.atmos.albany.edu/products/gefsplots/F120.html Man, if you are just hoping for a close coastal brush there are a lot of happy solutions on those GEFS panels!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted September 22, 2017 Author Share Posted September 22, 2017 4 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: I'm still out, but I'm liking the west trend. I'm still in, but not liking trends for imby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted September 22, 2017 Share Posted September 22, 2017 https://twitter.com/crankywxguy/status/911335998994427904 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.