BTRWx Posted September 20, 2017 Author Share Posted September 20, 2017 Jose keeps disappearing earlier and earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 So...this amateur weather geek is ready to write this one off, so...Where's the next Invest? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted September 20, 2017 Author Share Posted September 20, 2017 The euro has been hinting at a late left turn for multiple runs now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted September 20, 2017 Author Share Posted September 20, 2017 hmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted September 20, 2017 Author Share Posted September 20, 2017 9 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: It waits for the kicker and then heads east. No mechanism really to drive it much further west. If that's going to be the case in the longer range the track early on (how far west) is going to be important. On to the ensembles. I'm rooting for a negative tilt trough interaction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 When the NAGEM and Candian agree, you know it's legit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 12z NAVGEM would probably be better than Isabel up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 LOL @ the NAVGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 41 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Clear majority remain OTS, but there is a little cluster that bring a close approach. Indicates the Euro,s due east movement between 120 and 144 is suspect. 588dm ridge over PA and not much left of Jose at that time, yet somehow Jose is still strong enough to not only stop a westward turn but turn Maria due east. Most members keep it moving north or hook it back to the NNW at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 18z GFS heads back east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted September 21, 2017 Author Share Posted September 21, 2017 What a wacky way to swing and miss on the 0Z gfs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted September 21, 2017 Share Posted September 21, 2017 37 minutes ago, BTRWx said: What a wacky way to swing and miss on the 0Z gfs! Yeah seriously...what's with the stair-stepping, snake-like path OTS? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted September 21, 2017 Share Posted September 21, 2017 10 hours ago, olafminesaw said: When the NAGEM and Candian agree, you know it's legit. I'd cheerfully give up three major snowstorms for that to verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted September 21, 2017 Share Posted September 21, 2017 7 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: The difference in the Gefs and Eps mean low position between day 6 to 7 is like 500 miles ..which is insane..throw a dart but that said they are still both well off sure it just Gefs is almost in another time zone..lol. Took a quick glance this morning and it looked rough for any possible East Coast impact. If/until we see better Atlantic ridging this looks destined to be a fish storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted September 21, 2017 Share Posted September 21, 2017 Is there really anyway this couldn't be a fish? It seems to just stall and waits to be taken out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 21, 2017 Share Posted September 21, 2017 7 minutes ago, Mdecoy said: Is there really anyway this couldn't be a fish? It seems to just stall and waits to be taken out. The ridge in the atlantic relaxes so much there isn't anything to keep it west. So it just travels up the coast, out at sea, until something comes along and moves it. In the case of 06z GFS, its the front coming off the coast next week (that will give us more fall like temps) that eventually pushes Maria away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 21, 2017 Share Posted September 21, 2017 I put odds of impacts other than a slight breeze and a shower to our area at like 1% for the time being. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted September 21, 2017 Share Posted September 21, 2017 7 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: I put odds of impacts other than a slight breeze and a shower to our area at like 1% for the time being. I'm going 99% chance of high impact in our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 21, 2017 Share Posted September 21, 2017 22 minutes ago, mattie g said: I'm going 99% chance of high impact in our area. Bullish Yoda-style Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 21, 2017 Share Posted September 21, 2017 23 minutes ago, mattie g said: I'm going 99% chance of high impact in our area. flooding as a result of the tears from weenies? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 21, 2017 Share Posted September 21, 2017 48 minutes ago, mattie g said: I'm going 99% chance of high impact in our area. Make sure you post the NAM when it gets in range... I hear the h5 is pretty good 25 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Bullish Yoda-style Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted September 21, 2017 Author Share Posted September 21, 2017 29 minutes ago, mappy said: flooding as a result of the tears from weenies? Not a chance! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted September 21, 2017 Author Share Posted September 21, 2017 The left turn is clear, but she's way off the coast when it happens. I'm prepared to jump overboard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 21, 2017 Share Posted September 21, 2017 I am taking the 12z GGEM and running with it @Bob Chill would accept the 144 hr position of Maria Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted September 21, 2017 Share Posted September 21, 2017 time to do this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted September 21, 2017 Share Posted September 21, 2017 14 minutes ago, yoda said: I am taking the 12z GGEM and running with it @Bob Chill would accept the 144 hr position of Maria With all the usual caveats about the GGEM and tropical systems... The 12z GGEM run doesn't appear to be too crazy. The main difference between it and the GFS is that it has Jose die off more quickly, allowing the ridge to rebuild. I can't see the GGEM out to 144 yet, but that apears to bring Maria onshore. The GFS and Euro have both trended towards having Jose die off more quickly, which is especially apparent on the Euro. Below are the last three 00z Euro runs. And the EPS still have some landfall tracks. That's not saying landfall is likely - my "follow donsutherland1 and WxWatcher007" method has chances at about 10%. But I'm still paying attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 21, 2017 Share Posted September 21, 2017 5 minutes ago, H2O said: time to do this Killing someone seems excessive. Are you OK? Yesterday it was a carrier in your backyard, today murder... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted September 21, 2017 Share Posted September 21, 2017 Just now, mappy said: Killing someone seems excessive. Are you OK? Yesterday it was a carrier in your backyard, today murder... This is what you need to do before the NK does his come at me bro raise the roof arm thing and maria becomes a zombie. Kill it. Kill it with fire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 21, 2017 Share Posted September 21, 2017 5 minutes ago, H2O said: This is what you need to do before the NK does his come at me bro raise the roof arm thing and maria becomes a zombie. Kill it. Kill it with fire. dying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted September 21, 2017 Share Posted September 21, 2017 30 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: She gone. We're on to October. No way. The models aren't handling the "fake eye" correctly. There's still a chance! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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