cae Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 2 hours ago, Mdecoy said: Like others have said, still too early, you could say "Don't see anything now to bring this west" and tomorrow something could appear. That being said, when in doubt, go with CLIMO. Climo says fish. Kind of reminds me of Mid Atlantic snowstorms, 1000 things have to go right for snow, only one thing has to go wrong for it to not work. I guess it depends on what you mean by "climo". If you mean that most Atlantic hurricanes don't make landfall in the U.S., then you're right. But if you look only at hurricanes of Maria's strength and Maria's location, the picture changes. This was posted in the main thread a couple of days ago: On 9/18/2017 at 2:08 PM, StormchaserChuck said: Only 1 storm didn't hit America, and it was furthest NW of the bunch, soon to be nonanalog. As was pointed out a few posts later, the only major hurricane on a Maria-like track that didn't make landfall in the US or northern Mexico is Jose. The most recent version of that plot is below. There are more fish storms, but still a lot that make landfall. So this might be one of those situations in which climo actually argues in favor of landfall, but the particulars of the current pattern (e.g. Jose) make landfall less likely. Remember that the early model runs that had Jose getting out of the way showed Maria making solid landfall in the southeast U.S., consistent with the above maps. donsutherland1 on the main thread has been trying to balance historical tracks with current model runs and estimates there is about a 30% chance of U.S. landfall. WxWatcher007 has it at about 25%. So I'm going to rely on my expertise in reading posts by people who know more than me and say that there is about a 27.5% chance of U.S. landfall. Enough to keep me tracking for a while longer at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 11 minutes ago, cae said: I guess it depends on what you mean by "climo". If you mean that most Atlantic hurricanes don't make landfall in the U.S., then you're right. But if you look only at hurricanes of Maria's strength and Maria's location, the picture changes. This was posted in the main thread a couple of days ago: As was pointed out a few posts later, the only major hurricane on a Maria-like track that didn't make landfall in the US or northern Mexico is Jose. The most recent version of that plot is below. There are more fish storms, but still a lot that make landfall. So this might be one of those situations in which climo actually argues in favor of landfall, but the particulars of the current pattern (e.g. Jose) make landfall less likely. Remember that the early model runs that had Jose getting out of the way showed Maria making solid landfall in the southeast U.S., consistent with the above maps. donsutherland1 on the main thread has been trying to balance historical tracks with current model runs and estimates there is about a 30% chance of U.S. landfall. WxWatcher007 has it at about 25%. So I'm going to rely on my expertise in reading posts by people who know more than me and say that there is about a 27.5% chance of U.S. landfall. Enough to keep me tracking for a while longer at least. I understand your angle there. My angle is more mid Atlantic specific (since this is a IMBY thread) We just don't get direct hits from Hurricanes that often. Indirectly is even fairly rare to any considerable degree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 hey @clskinsfan dont waste your time in that thread asking questions. there are quite a few in there who post way too much thinking they know all who will, as you saw, quickly put you down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 3 minutes ago, mappy said: hey @clskinsfan dont waste your time in that thread asking questions. there are quite a few in there who post way too much thinking they know all who will, as you saw, quickly put you down Ha! yeah I think in need to crawl back to my Mid Atlantic thread with my head down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Just now, clskinsfan said: Ha! yeah I think in need to crawl back to my Mid Atlantic thread with my head down. We are more welcoming here. ... well most everyone else is. I tend to tell people to shh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 43 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Ha! yeah I think in need to crawl back to my Mid Atlantic thread with my head down. LOL! Well, yeah. I perused that main thread some during Irma and a bit now with Maria. I did see your comment/question (that image loop where it weakened some due to eyewall replacement, I believe?), thought it was reasonable and you even mentioned that you don't have as much knowledge about tropical stuff. The person who responded to you, I have to say, was unnecessarily condescending and rude...with the "this is a classic case of read more, post less" or something like that. The stuff they mentioned after that was fine and on-topic to the discussion, but the put-down was crappy in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 12z GFS - Jose is still sitting around at 96 hrs... probably is going to make Maria OTS unless Jose magically disappears soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Huh... you would think that the dissipation of Jose and the ridge coming overtop (WAR) would force Maria westward at 120-126... but I guess Maria already found a loophole before the WAR rebuilt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: What hour are you at? I'm at 132 and it looks 50/50 to me for a close approach. That's not a bad ridge over the top and it looks like the WAR is building more than past runs (whether that stays the same on the run TBD). I'm thinking there is at least a bend toward the NNW again until the western trough rolls through. Could be wrong but I'm not doing official analysis yet At hr 138... GFS seems to make teh WAR go poof near Maria Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Northern stream trough doesn't look as impressive (at least comparing to 6z, I haven't followed this much). Maria is slower than 6z also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Maria moving slowly NW between 144 and 162... doubt it will do anything though in regards to EC impact besides surf this run... but we shall see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 3 minutes ago, yoda said: Maria moving slowly NW between 144 and 162... doubt it will do anything though in regards to EC impact besides surf this run... but we shall see Nothing to bring it west so it is just sitting and waiting for the kicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 FWIW, 12z GGEM brings Maria into Norfolk/Hampton Roads at 144... Jose goes goodbye quickly and the WAR rebuilds fast, forcing Maria into SE VA: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Pretty nice shift west on 12z. GFS High builds in faster because Maria was slower this run and Jose has more time to dissipate. GFS has always overamplified the strength of storms. Interested to see what the ensembles show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 More fun if the 12z GGEM were correct @WxWatcher007 and @Bob Chill would approve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted September 20, 2017 Author Share Posted September 20, 2017 28 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: Northern stream trough doesn't look as impressive (at least comparing to 6z, I haven't followed this much). Maria is slower than 6z also. That is where the ecmwf trough placement + gfs center placement blend would be ideal for us imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted September 20, 2017 Author Share Posted September 20, 2017 19 minutes ago, yoda said: FWIW, 12z GGEM brings Maria into Norfolk/Hampton Roads at 144... Jose goes goodbye quickly and the WAR rebuilds fast, forcing Maria into SE VA: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 5 minutes ago, yoda said: More fun if the 12z GGEM were correct @WxWatcher007 and @Bob Chill would approve Why does it seem like, no matter what, everytime there's even a remote shot of a tropical system, some model, somewhere in the forecast period, takes the system up the mouth of the bay? Lol I mean without fail, hahaha (has there ever even been a time where that actually happened??) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted September 20, 2017 Author Share Posted September 20, 2017 4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Why does it seem like, no matter what, everytime there's even a remote shot of a tropical system, some model, somewhere in the forecast period, takes the system up the mouth of the bay? Lol I mean without fail, hahaha (has there ever even been a time where that actually happened??) Irene went over the mouth (barely). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: Why does it seem like, no matter what, everytime there's even a remote shot of a tropical system, some model, somewhere in the forecast period, takes the system up the mouth of the bay? Lol I mean without fail, hahaha (has there ever even been a time where that actually happened??) Actually the 12z GGEM doesn't do that... it landfalls in SE VA, meanders for a little while and weakens in SE VA... then moves back east out to sea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Timing really is a thing here. If we want an east coast hit (and I mean, we are weenies, so we do, but thinking of moderating that kills me a little bit inside), we need Maria to thread the needle (drink!). Squeeze in between the WAR and incoming trough that will kick it back out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: It's only downhill from here. On a serious note--anyone have the Ukie at 144? I'm only out to 72. Yes - http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/forecast-systems.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ukmet&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest Its way out to sea.. farther east than both the GFS and GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Remember that the Ukie had Irma nailed well in advance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 I think Irma, Jose, and now Maria have all had Cbay runs at some point or another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Just now, Mdecoy said: I think Irma, Jose, and now Maria have all had Cbay runs at some point or another. every storm does. what's your point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 2 hours ago, mappy said: We are more welcoming here. ... well most everyone else is. I tend to tell people to shh. I almost popped a cap in somebody's ass in that thread. Almost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 there would be no water in the bay right now if all these modeled hurricanes actually happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 All of them Mapgirl? Wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Just now, stormtracker said: I almost popped a cap in somebody's ass in that thread. Almost. It may make it easier to just give me a green tag, that way no one gets all uppity when I'm telling them to stop posting Jose bs in the Maria thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Just now, Mdecoy said: All of them Mapgirl? Wow! Yes. EVERY SINGLE STORM EVER come on come on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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