George BM Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Just now, poolz1 said: 909mb at 8pm! Wow...Anyone recall Irma's lowest pressure? 914mb if memory serves me correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 2 minutes ago, George BM said: 914mb if memory serves me correct. Thanks...looks like your memory is correct.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 So 882mb is the lowest in Atlantic correct? Wilma? Not too far away from that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Hmmm.... I'm still out but it's pretty interesting seeing the handful of stall and turn tracks just off the NC/delmarva coast. Ens are picking up on a block that extends south to our latitude. That's a pretty new development and eye catching. Not to mention there's 1 EJ special in the mix. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Cool loop. The IEW is looking fierce right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: Yep. Wilma at 882. Pretty rare to see a system this deep. Even more fascinating to contrast that with Irma's inner core and strength. As for future track, I hope tropical this year has taught us that we can't really be IN until the eyewall is within radar range. It's like tracking a Miller B where you hold your breath until you start seeing SN out the window. I have held my breath so many times in the winter it's amazing I'm still alive. There was one storm kept hitting the wall just south of me because dry air. I stood outside in a T-shirt yelling at the sky. I think it was last year. Maria is the angel of death here on Earth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 No one wants to really discuss this in the main thread, but thank goodness the pressure drop has leveled off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Not the best picture but live nonetheless....St. Croix https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Q2CzQclKQc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 1 minute ago, gymengineer said: No one wants to really discuss this in the main thread, but thank goodness the pressure drop has leveled off. And yes it is probably close to it's absolute maximum intensity. Mostly downhill from here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 8 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: It really is incredible to see so many exceptionally high impact landfalling systems in such rapid succession. Harvey, Irma, soon to include Maria...all in a few weeks. Most terrifying thing about that is we haven't hit Caribbean season yet and that area is about as pristine as you can get with SSTs and TCHP. In fact, the TCHP from 10 days ago was just an outrageous level of overkill. I hope recon can get out there ASAP. Wouldn't be surprised to see that a little more strengthening took place with that recent pressure drop. It is amazing but totally random in my opinion. Just like that occasional epic winter. Could be decades before we see another hurricane season like this. Or next maybe next year. People at work today were talking about global warming and storms...I just put my headphones on. Never talk religion politics or weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 18 minutes ago, BristowWx said: It is amazing but totally random in my opinion. Just like that occasional epic winter. Could be decades before we see another hurricane season like this. Or next maybe next year. People at work today were talking about global warming and storms...I just put my headphones on. Never talk religion politics or weather. I heard people saying that this hurricane season is the new norm. Eta that I disagree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Althought the Euro and 18z GFS both brought Maria west, it looks like they did it in different ways. The Euro Fujiwharas Jose's remnants over us, weakening the ridge to Maria's NW instead of NE. The GFS doesn't Fujiwhara Jose, but it brings Maria in faster than previous runs have. Just a reminder that this is still a week away, and a lot can change. Sometimes I think the models throw out these runs to mess with weenies. ETA: I should note that for both models a common theme was a weaker Jose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted September 20, 2017 Author Share Posted September 20, 2017 What a spread! The eye of the center of circulation clusters is least likely! lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted September 20, 2017 Author Share Posted September 20, 2017 3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: It has, which makes sense when looking at the HH data the last few days, but I wonder if that will plateau as it goes post-tropical. Wouldn't be surprised if it is able to maintain some strength due to baroclinic processes rather than tropical. I don't think it necessarily has to be strong at the surface to pop an escape hatch in that ridge for Maria. After a second look, its intensity actually seems to be wobbling a lot from run to run for both ops and ens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted September 20, 2017 Author Share Posted September 20, 2017 19 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: 18z gefs(all 22) at hour 168 http://www.atmos.albany.edu/products/gefsplots/F168.html Main link: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/products/gefsplots/ Dartboard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted September 20, 2017 Author Share Posted September 20, 2017 The 8 run trend gif from this is quite interesting for interactions between Jose, Maria, and the Highs. Click the blue button in the bottom right below the map. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=namer&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2017092000&fh=150&xpos=0&ypos=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted September 20, 2017 Author Share Posted September 20, 2017 0Z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 What is interesting is the 12z EURO and 00z GFS to lesser degree show a sudden sharp NW trajectory @ our latitude before switching back NE. THe GFS was really close to a landfall near NJ. It is also still a very strong system too as it gets close to us. Long way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 00z GEFS on TT would seem to imply that there are a few members which have Maria impact our region (see hrs 150-168) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 5 minutes ago, yoda said: 00z GEFS on TT would seem to imply that there are a few members which have Maria impact our region (see hrs 150-168) WHat is interesting is on the OP, between those hours is when Maria makes a quick NW turn before heading back out NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted September 20, 2017 Author Share Posted September 20, 2017 7 minutes ago, yoda said: 00z GEFS on TT would seem to imply that there are a few members which have Maria impact our region (see hrs 150-168) Stall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 If you want to see a stall... look at what the GGEM does with Maria from 156 to 240 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted September 20, 2017 Author Share Posted September 20, 2017 2 minutes ago, yoda said: If you want to see a stall... look at what the GGEM does with Maria from 156 to 240 I don't really look at that model. Your turn to pbp Yoda! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 I've looked at the 0z models. And I've looked at the 6z GFS. And everything i see takes Maria clearly and directly OTS - more directly than the same models 24hrs ago. Not sure what others are seeing that suggests otherwise, minor adjustments to track aside. Eta- happy to be proven wrong. Monster up the Chesapeake would be awesome. Just don't see it... anywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 i agree. 6z to me was a shift back east from 0z and until I see a better WAR show up there is no reason to think there is a threat to the EC other than more surf. Jose might be poof but just nothing there to the east to force Maria west. Looks like model teasing again IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Like others have said, still too early, you could say "Don't see anything now to bring this west" and tomorrow something could appear. That being said, when in doubt, go with CLIMO. Climo says fish. Kind of reminds me of Mid Atlantic snowstorms, 1000 things have to go right for snow, only one thing has to go wrong for it to not work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Man, a couple of hours ago it looked like Maria's eye would just go over the north east portion of PR, but as soon as it made landfall, it took a hard left and is going through most of the island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted September 20, 2017 Author Share Posted September 20, 2017 1 hour ago, losetoa6 said: 6z Gefs is another west shift...especially day 6-7 from just south of our latitude on north. H5..not bad at this range 0Z Eps too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 If that uber trough on the models out west progged to head east is real, no way Maria has any impact on us. Scraper to OBX? Maybe, but that's the first decent fall trough coming east and Maria doesn't have a chance against.....if the models are progging it close to accurately attm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted September 20, 2017 Author Share Posted September 20, 2017 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: If that uber trough on the models out west progged to head east is real, no way Maria has any impact on us. Scraper to OBX? Maybe, but that's the first decent fall trough coming east and Maria doesn't have a chance against.....if the models are progging it close to accurately attm. Too many definitive statements are being made at range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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