BTRWx Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 The first sign of trouble from Maria. Will it be the last? Discuss! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 PR staring down the barrel...Those islands to the east of PR really took a beating from Irma. St Thomas, BVI etc... Maria looking just as symmetrical as Irma did in that general location. Beautiful but intimidating as hell.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 Looks like 00z GFS finally kicks Jose away at 150 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 6 hours ago, yoda said: Looks like 00z GFS finally kicks Jose away at 150 As do the Euro, Cmc and 6z GFS. Not even close. /thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 Too bad, with all the activity this year, was hoping for at least something. Kind of a letdown to be honest. Irma goes west, Jose is close but no Cigar, and then it allows Maria to escape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 Is Jose really going to do what the models indicate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 Hate to say it, but I hope the HWRF is right on the track. The USVI are already screwed, better to have another Cat 5 landfall there than in PR. Not holding out on any hope for mid-atlantic impacts. We don't even have any good weenie runs out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 46 minutes ago, Jandurin said: Is Jose really going to do what the models indicate? hard to say, hasn't happened yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 1 hour ago, MN Transplant said: Not holding out on any hope for mid-atlantic impacts. We don't even have any good weenie runs out there. Right now Maria isn't much of a threat to anyone on the east coast. It's not a good LF pattern with or without Jose in the picture. I'm out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted September 19, 2017 Author Share Posted September 19, 2017 Irma pages 28-29 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 I can't believe that first absurd appearing run from like three days ago of Jose hanging around long enough to sling Maria away is now the most likely scenario who would have believed it. And by the GFS no less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 GFS concerning for the Dominican Republic. A bit more west = lots of problems for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted September 19, 2017 Author Share Posted September 19, 2017 I'll post a comparison image to last night's euro (and maybe the upcoming 12Z euro) to this 12Z gfs run for later frames. Notice the trough coming east across the conus as Maria tracks just west of Bermuda! The forward speed of Maria will be significant imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted September 19, 2017 Author Share Posted September 19, 2017 5 minutes ago, BTRWx said: I'll post a comparison image to last night's euro (and maybe the upcoming 12Z euro) to this 12Z gfs run for later frames. Notice the trough coming east across the conus as Maria tracks just west of Bermuda! The forward speed of Maria will be significant imo. 0Z ecmwf (trough) 12Z gfs (no trough) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted September 19, 2017 Author Share Posted September 19, 2017 3 minutes ago, BTRWx said: 0Z ecmwf (trough) 12Z gfs (no trough) Later frames... ecmwf gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 why is this a thread? no MA impacts from this trough or no trough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 1 hour ago, H2O said: why is this a thread? no MA impacts from this trough or no trough What about the 53 page Irma-MA thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 Just now, MDstorm said: What about the 53 page Irma-MA thread? We did get rain from that. Woo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 10 minutes ago, H2O said: why is this a thread? no MA impacts from this trough or no trough Really. Weather that's not in the MA isn't really weather. Since we are a science board and all that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted September 19, 2017 Author Share Posted September 19, 2017 6 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Really. Weather that's not in the MA isn't really weather. Since we are a science board and all that. This or the main main board? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 51 minutes ago, H2O said: why is this a thread? no MA impacts from this trough or no trough This is where we avoid all the randos in the Tropical thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 1 minute ago, MN Transplant said: This is where we wallow in our misery . FYP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 57 minutes ago, H2O said: why is this a thread? no MA impacts from this trough or no trough <mappy>Thanks for telling us the weather that hasn't happened yet.</mappy> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 Landfall into NJ? this is Maria Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 Looks as if Jose backs into the Jersey Coast the ridge tries to build back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 1 hour ago, mattie g said: <mappy>Thanks for telling us the weather that hasn't happened yet.</mappy> Thank you. Saved me some keystrokes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 1 hour ago, Philadelphia Snow said: Landfall into NJ? this is Maria It makes a right turn from there. I wouldn't want to go to Jersey either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 18z GFS came way west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveVa Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 Both Euro and 18z GFS came west, I guess we can never underestimate the strength of the ridge in 2017 lol I like my odds here in VA Beach Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 909mb at 8pm! Wow...Anyone recall Irma's lowest pressure? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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