Major Hurricane Maria, likely to hit Florida or south

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

In 36 hours, Cat4-5 Maria will pass through this box.

Since 1948, 20 Hurricanes have passed through the area. 

5 Went out to Sea

3 Hit North Carolina

5 Hit Florida

6 moved into the Gulf or Carribbean

 

These are 500mb anomaly loops of each set. You decide.

 

Out to Sea.

 

North Carolina. 

Florida.

 

Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean.


 

 

 

The Florida/Gulf maps are much closer match than North Carolina and out to sea. NAO region, all.

 

Cat 3+ that made landfall, strength at landfall:

1 Cat5,

2 Cat4,

2 Cat3,

2 Cat2

 

predict Cat3-4 at landfall. 

 

I've discussed in other threads that La Nina is much stronger than expected, and models may not be picking this up. ENSO is very highly correlated to Atlantic storm track

[CheeselandSkies]

Of course, the wild card is what's left of Jose and what it does to the ridge if it does another loop north of Bermuda. Is there any climo analog for that?

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

14 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Of course, the wild card is what's left of Jose and what it does to the ridge if it does another loop north of Bermuda. Is there any climo analog for that?

In my experience of watching storms and models for a long time northern latitude systems are handled poorly and at this range, and almost always verifies not as much impact, especially the stronger the south storm is. But this was more so the case yesterday than today, it's kind of been phased out a little bit. 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Anyway, my intuition is awesome and pattern recognition 

The science is mostly for fun... but no one wants to discuss

[Mikeymac5306]

Question. Wouldn't a pretty good high pressure be needed to keep Maria near the east coast, or have a East coast landfall?  If Jose is still there turning this weekend it would be easy to say Maria goes north then NE?

[SteveVa]

I noticed with Irma how you hyped it up to go deep into the Gulf (even though no model supported your opinion) and you made other nonsensical claims.

Then some people alerted me to why you're doing that. Using meteorology to fool people in order to raise the value of your gas futures market (or whatever) is really sad.

I (and the models) are sure Maria will not track into the Gulf. There is no steering pattern present to bring her there. Stop deceiving.

[JC-CT]

lol, yeah he is really affecting the global market by posting on americanwx.com. You guys figured out his evil scheme, a nobel prize may be in order.

[SteveVa]

Lol, we care about people who come to this forum to get quality information but come across crap like this.

[JC-CT]

3 minutes ago, SteveVa said:

Lol, we care about people who come to this forum to get quality information but come across crap like this.

 Care to provide some actual analysis to refute his post? Otherwise, you are the one posting baseless crap.

[SteveVa]

Why would I waste my time trying to prove a troll wrong?

But whatever, we'll see in a couple of days how this turns out

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Models tightly clustered out to sea. Strong ridging west and east of where it needs to be, timing a bit off for west track. Much lower chances today because of model consensus, which is good at this range. 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

3 hours ago, SteveVa said:

I noticed with Irma how you hyped it up to go deep into the Gulf (even though no model supported your opinion) and you made other nonsensical claims.

Then some people alerted me to why you're doing that. Using meteorology to fool people in order to raise the value of your gas futures market (or whatever) is really sad.

I (and the models) are sure Maria will not track into the Gulf. There is no steering pattern present to bring her there. Stop deceiving.

I'll reply, the prediction was Irma would hit Florida or go into the Gulf, and in the last few days I did think the strength would carry it further west than forecast. It was a good forecast though because when I said 5% chance of east coast hit north of Florida, when the majority of models were showing North Carolina. The gasoline thread is potentially an awesome point. 18 hours after this thread is made, it's not such a good forecast https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_15 

[87storms]

interesting post.  the only thing i would caution against is making a claim that something is likely based off what's happened in the past.  to me, that's a mask for not understanding fully the current setup and doesn't really work in meteorology very well.  who knows, though, maybe this will begin trending further west.

[Akeem the African Dream]

On September 18, 2017 at 5:59 PM, StormchaserChuck said:

In 36 hours, Cat4-5 Maria will pass through this box.

Since 1948, 20 Hurricanes have passed through the area. 

5 Went out to Sea

3 Hit North Carolina

5 Hit Florida

6 moved into the Gulf or Carribbean

 

These are 500mb anomaly loops of each set. You decide.

 

Out to Sea.

 

North Carolina. 

Florida.

 

Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean.


 

 

 

The Florida/Gulf maps are much closer match than North Carolina and out to sea. NAO region, all.

 

Cat 3+ that made landfall, strength at landfall:

1 Cat5,

2 Cat4,

2 Cat3,

2 Cat2

 

predict Cat3-4 at landfall. 

 

I've discussed in other threads that La Nina is much stronger than expected, and models may not be picking this up. ENSO is very highly correlated to Atlantic storm track

Thanks dude.

 

I bet my friend $250 that this storm would not hit Florida.  Your forecast made me feel really strongly on taking the "not hit" side and it paid off.

[wxmx]

On 9/18/2017 at 4:59 PM, StormchaserChuck said:

In 36 hours, Cat4-5 Maria will pass through this box.

 

Excellent 3 day track forecast there

[winterymix]

It has been pointed out by NHC that a trough extends southwest from Jose almost to the GOM and

this opens up a weakness in the western-Atlantic ridge.   This seems to be reason enough to expect

Maria to trend north and eventually NNE.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

2 hours ago, Akeem the African Dream said:

Thanks dude.

 

I bet my friend $250 that this storm would not hit Florida.  Your forecast made me feel really strongly on taking the "not hit" side and it paid off.

A lot of convulsion in the upper latitudes, otherwise a huge Cat 5 hurricane in the Gulf with no major trough dropping through in mid September has a good chance of tracking west. There was a time when the weatherunderground map showed 19/20 historical analogs all hitting land, the only non analog being Jose which tracked pretty good NE of this, and was #20 closest of the bunch. Replies about bad forcasting: too many. Science posts discussing my well researched post (right or wrong): 0. 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

44 minutes ago, winterymix said:

It has been pointed out by NHC that a trough extends southwest from Jose almost to the GOM and

this opens up a weakness in the western-Atlantic ridge.   This seems to be reason enough to expect

Maria to trend north and eventually NNE.

I understand that. Rarely does a lingering storm redirect a big, strong Hurricane. Usually something happens and the northern system goes far off forecast track (not south). It's all learning, and this is a good post. The shift in models had to happen soon and 18 hours after this was written it was obvious that Maria would not hit Florida or Gulf. 

[larrye]

1 minute ago, StormchaserChuck said:

A lot of convulsion in the upper latitudes, otherwise a huge Cat 5 hurricane in the Gulf with no major trough dropping through in mid September has a good chance of tracking west. Replies about bad forcasting: too many. Science posts discussing my well researched post (right or wrong): 0. 

A lot of "convulsion"? And you're complaining about the lack of science in the discussions here? I suppose after hitting Florida, Maria will take a
"hop, skip, and a jump" over the rest of the continental US to end up in Hudson's Bay?

Look, 100% model reliability 5 days out isn't assured. But the reliable models have all been trending east. Even the GFS. And climatology favors a recurve. It is highly likely that we will see a recurve. If not, we MIGHT see a NC or VA landfall but probabilities are extremely low, almost not worth discussing. But to talk about a FL landfall or GOM at this point is a bit ridiculous. There would be a lot of people at the NHC who would be very very wrong.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Maybe because it was so close to the other two something MJO-related happened. That's probably it. There is a difference in 15-20 day differences in same cyclone areas. This was a bad call. Mind is more clear today. Nice reference though. 

[Chargers09]

2 hours ago, StormchaserChuck said:

A lot of convulsion in the upper latitudes, otherwise a huge Cat 5 hurricane in the Gulf with no major trough dropping through in mid September has a good chance of tracking west. There was a time when the weatherunderground map showed 19/20 historical analogs all hitting land, the only non analog being Jose which tracked pretty good NE of this, and was #20 closest of the bunch. Replies about bad forcasting: too many. Science posts discussing my well researched post (right or wrong): 0. 

hahaha

[Akeem the African Dream]

3 hours ago, StormchaserChuck said:

A lot of convulsion in the upper latitudes, otherwise a huge Cat 5 hurricane in the Gulf with no major trough dropping through in mid September has a good chance of tracking west. There was a time when the weatherunderground map showed 19/20 historical analogs all hitting land, the only non analog being Jose which tracked pretty good NE of this, and was #20 closest of the bunch. Replies about bad forcasting: too many. Science posts discussing my well researched post (right or wrong): 0. 

The science behind this showed it would curve well east of Florida as well.  

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

More brilliance on display here.

Outstanding. 

[BxEngine]

37 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Did you pay your friend? 

Uhh

[BuffaloWeather]

1 hour ago, BxEngine said:

Uhh

Opps thought this was the Irma thread.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

It's good research for a later time