Hoosier Posted November 22, 2017 Share Posted November 22, 2017 24 minutes ago, roardog said: Sometimes he does deserve some credit though. He has been using this experimental hurricane ace analog technique since about late Summer and it's been pretty accurate so far. It showed a warm October for most of the country with it being a little cooler in the west(that turned out good). It showed a cold eastern half of the country for November. The month isn't over yet but it's going to at least have the right idea. It says December will also be colder than normal from the plains eastward. This goes against a typical Nina look so it will be interesting to see how that works out. Then, it shows a big flip later in January into February with the cold being centered more over the west with a fairly big SE ridge. The cold then comes back east for March. I have to say I'm kind of intrigued by this since the first couple of months seem to have been quite accurate and although there have been some swings in the medium range look from the models(which is typical)there still seems to be the general consensus of eventually leaning toward a +PNA pattern setting up which also favors his analog method for December. I've seen other outlooks going with that type of progression for DJFM as well. If so, the Midwest could sort of be a sweet spot whether it's with clippers or southwest lows but with the risk of thaws increasing beyond the new year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 22, 2017 Share Posted November 22, 2017 Things have improved on the CFS since earlier in the month -- for December. It actually had us below normal yesterday for the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted November 22, 2017 Share Posted November 22, 2017 Looks like the pattern in the pacific goes zonal in the extended. Rest of November/ first week of December looking pretty quiet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmillzz Posted November 22, 2017 Share Posted November 22, 2017 2 hours ago, roardog said: Sometimes he does deserve some credit though. He has been using this experimental hurricane ace analog technique since about late Summer and it's been pretty accurate so far. It showed a warm October for most of the country with it being a little cooler in the west(that turned out good). It showed a cold eastern half of the country for November. The month isn't over yet but it's going to at least have the right idea. It says December will also be colder than normal from the plains eastward. This goes against a typical Nina look so it will be interesting to see how that works out. Then, it shows a big flip later in January into February with the cold being centered more over the west with a fairly big SE ridge. The cold then comes back east for March. I have to say I'm kind of intrigued by this since the first couple of months seem to have been quite accurate and although there have been some swings in the medium range look from the models(which is typical)there still seems to be the general consensus of eventually leaning toward a +PNA pattern setting up which also favors his analog method for December. The worst The last good March we had was in 2012. Every March since then has been god awful (with the exception of 2016 perhaps). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 22, 2017 Share Posted November 22, 2017 2 minutes ago, cmillzz said: The worst The last good March we had was in 2012. Every March since then has been god awful (with the exception of 2016 perhaps). Did you used to live in Saukville, WI by chance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 22, 2017 Share Posted November 22, 2017 That CFS forecast looks like a continuation of this very boring and windy pattern we have been in the past several weeks. Very yawnilicious... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 22, 2017 Share Posted November 22, 2017 About 2/3 of the way through the month. The colder than average anomalies in the Midwest will likely get eaten into in the coming days, but should still finish colder than average for the most part. Compared to the last couple Novembers, it's a better look for winter wx fans. Though the cold has not penetrated into the deep South as effectively as 2013/2014 on the monthly scale, the past 2 weeks have even seen that region be colder than average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 22, 2017 Share Posted November 22, 2017 11 minutes ago, Hoosier said: About 2/3 of the way through the month. The colder than average anomalies in the Midwest will likely get eaten into in the coming days, but should still finish colder than average for the most part. Compared to the last couple Novembers, it's a better look for winter wx fans. Though the cold has not penetrated into the deep South as effectively as 2013/2014 on the monthly scale, the past 2 weeks have even seen that region be colder than average. You have a link where you can generate these maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 22, 2017 Share Posted November 22, 2017 1 minute ago, Stebo said: You have a link where you can generate these maps? https://hprcc.unl.edu/maps.php?map=ACISClimateMaps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 22, 2017 Share Posted November 22, 2017 Just now, Hoosier said: https://hprcc.unl.edu/maps.php?map=ACISClimateMaps Thank you sir Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted November 22, 2017 Share Posted November 22, 2017 22 hours ago, RCNYILWX said: This isn't a bad look at all at the end of the 12z European ensemble today. Nice high amplitude ridging/-EPO on the Pacific side and looks like -NAO/-AO too. Also appears to be hinting back to -PNA with southwestern troughing and southeastern ridging. If that verified, could be an active period with good cold into the source region likely due to the -EPO. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk Great post! The AAM is projected to tank over the next few weeks and with the increase in trade winds expected later on this month towards early December, I foresee a return to the La Nina pattern we saw earlier this month as the Pacific reshuffles beyond December 6th. One thing to keep in mind, in relation to the image above, is the shift in the PV from Canada to Europe, which would favour upward wave activity in the stratosphere. However, the next 2 weeks look really tranquil and somewhat boring for much of the consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 22, 2017 Share Posted November 22, 2017 I guess I'm okay with a slow start to this winter. The last two season got off to a quick start, with warning criteria events Nov 22/Dec 4 respectively. After that they were pretty terrible lol. Just give me a winter where we don't have weeks with nothing to track. That's the worst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted November 23, 2017 Share Posted November 23, 2017 8 hours ago, roardog said: Sometimes he does deserve some credit though. He has been using this experimental hurricane ace analog technique since about late Summer and it's been pretty accurate so far. It showed a warm October for most of the country with it being a little cooler in the west(that turned out good). It showed a cold eastern half of the country for November. The month isn't over yet but it's going to at least have the right idea. It says December will also be colder than normal from the plains eastward. This goes against a typical Nina look so it will be interesting to see how that works out. Then, it shows a big flip later in January into February with the cold being centered more over the west with a fairly big SE ridge. The cold then comes back east for March. I have to say I'm kind of intrigued by this since the first couple of months seem to have been quite accurate and although there have been some swings in the medium range look from the models(which is typical)there still seems to be the general consensus of eventually leaning toward a +PNA pattern setting up which also favors his analog method for December. Good points. However, I think that media outlets such as accuweather, weatherbell and, here in Canada, The Weather Network need to hype the idea of this upcoming winter being a blockbuster one in order to draw viewers and subscribers. Think about it: if they predicted a tame winter, not as many people would tune in or subscribe. The Weather Network in Canada is calling for a "return to traditional Canadian winter conditions" as well as "the winters of our youth", which is a joke as it all depends on when your youth was. If your youth encompassed a period from the mid 60s to mid 80s then, yes, they were more often than not, very cold and snowy. If, on the other hand, your youth was in the early 50s, then for this winter to be like those ones, it would have to be mild. Environment Canada and the National Weather Service, by contrast, are government funded and thus do not need to rely on subscribers and viewers wanting big storms to follow. Hence, there is less hype. I've heard that Environment Canada is far less bullish on this upcoming winter and I gather the NWS is as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 23, 2017 Share Posted November 23, 2017 15 hours ago, Ottawa Blizzard said: Good points. However, I think that media outlets such as accuweather, weatherbell and, here in Canada, The Weather Network need to hype the idea of this upcoming winter being a blockbuster one in order to draw viewers and subscribers. Think about it: if they predicted a tame winter, not as many people would tune in or subscribe. The Weather Network in Canada is calling for a "return to traditional Canadian winter conditions" as well as "the winters of our youth", which is a joke as it all depends on when your youth was. If your youth encompassed a period from the mid 60s to mid 80s then, yes, they were more often than not, very cold and snowy. If, on the other hand, your youth was in the early 50s, then for this winter to be like those ones, it would have to be mild. Environment Canada and the National Weather Service, by contrast, are government funded and thus do not need to rely on subscribers and viewers wanting big storms to follow. Hence, there is less hype. I've heard that Environment Canada is far less bullish on this upcoming winter and I gather the NWS is as well. The first 10 days of December look very boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted November 23, 2017 Share Posted November 23, 2017 21 minutes ago, Jonger said: The first 10 days of December look very boring. I think the end of that period will be the turning point, but it will be a while til models reflect that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmillzz Posted November 24, 2017 Share Posted November 24, 2017 Looks like we'll go into a central/east ridge regime for the first 10 days of December, then revert back to the west ridge, east trough regime by mid-month. Just in time for my trip to AZ. Love it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 24, 2017 Share Posted November 24, 2017 10 hours ago, cmillzz said: Looks like we'll go into a central/east ridge regime for the first 10 days of December, then revert back to the west ridge, east trough regime by mid-month. Just in time for my trip to AZ. Love it Zzzzzzzzz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 The December JAMSTEC is pretty wet for DJF in areas that have been pretty dry so far this month. So if it's right, things will start turning wet later this month or at least in Jan/Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 New Euro monthly for January. Nice Niña look if it pans out. FWIW, the Euro monthly for December issued back in November did a pretty good job with the western ridge eastern trough look and generally drier than average precip anomalies. Here's hoping for a better January after a hopefully better close to December. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 Everybody had this look for the first 2 months of meteorological winter, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 Everybody had this look for the first 2 months of meteorological winter, right?No semblance of a classic Niña here.Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 I'm done with ENSO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 48 minutes ago, Jonger said: I'm done with ENSO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 19 minutes ago, Stebo said: I wouldn't have said what he did but I think it's an important reminder that ENSO effects on the US aren't always what you envision and that the "most likely" outcome doesn't always pan out. Sometimes I'm guilty of it myself too, during the times that I do try to get into seasonal stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: I wouldn't have said what he did but I think it's an important reminder that ENSO effects on the US aren't always what you envision and that the "most likely" outcome doesn't always pan out. Sometimes I'm guilty of it myself too, during the times that I do try to get into seasonal stuff. Weak ENSOs in either direction tend to be prone to toss ups. But to say you are done with ENSO is like saying you are done with gravity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 On 1/30/2018 at 10:32 PM, Stebo said: Weak ENSOs in either direction tend to be prone to toss ups. But to say you are done with ENSO is like saying you are done with gravity. True, but this Nina was organized enough that it's a bit surprising (to me anyway) how things have turned out so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 Jon's done with ENSO, earlier he was done with the Euro, what's next, "I'm done with numerical prediction"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Did a lot of late rallying to get these + precip anomalies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Today affirms my A+ grade for the Winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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