Winter of 2017-18 discussion, thoughts

[Hoosier]

6 minutes ago, cmillzz said:

I am almost certain that climate change is the reason that perennial western ridge literally never goes away (And also for that massive warm blob in the pacific). It’s just unfortunate that it nearly always forces a trough to develop further east.

The western ridge actually hasn't been nearly as much of a permanent fixture in the last 18-24 months, compared to the couple years prior.  The height/temp anomalies bear that out.  I think there is some selective memory going on.

[IWXwx]

32 minutes ago, cmillzz said:

I am almost certain that climate change is the reason that perennial western ridge literally never goes away (And also for that massive warm blob in the pacific). It’s just unfortunate that it nearly always forces a trough to develop further east.

 

24 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

The western ridge actually hasn't been nearly as much of a permanent fixture in the last 18-24 months, compared to the couple years prior.  The height/temp anomalies bear that out.  I think there is some selective memory going on.

Hoosier is right. I know that this is anecdotal, but you don't get seven daily record high temperatures a year at FWA with a permanent western ridge, which we have done for the past two years. 2013 and 2014 are years where the western ridge was more prominent.

FWA daily record highs for the past 6 years:

2017 - 7 (so far)

2016 - 7

2015 - 5

2014 - 0

2013 - 1

2012 - 13 lol

[IWXwx]

I got curious when looking at threaded extremes and counted the top three record high temps for 2012-'17:

2017 - 23

2016 - 12

2015 - 8

2014 - 3

2013 - 3

2012 - 31

[michsnowfreak]

32 minutes ago, IWXwx said:

I got curious when looking at threaded extremes and counted the top three record high temps for 2012-'17:

2017 - 23

2016 - 12

2015 - 8

2014 - 3

2013 - 3

2012 - 31

Just so I'm getting what you mean...is that the number of times when it was either the 1st, 2nd, or 3rd warmest high on a particular day that year?

[IWXwx]

3 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Just so I'm getting what you mean...is that the number of times when it was either the 1st, 2nd, or 3rd warmest high on a particular day that year?

Yes.

For example, in 2012, we had 18 days of record high temps. But I knew that there were several more days that reached close to, but did not exceed the record. That year featured 6 more days with the second highest temp ever recorded and 7 with the third highest temp for total of 31.

[Chinook]

Is it possible that the Northern Hemisphere averaged 850mb and surface temperatures are a bit below average right now?

[OHweather]

10 minutes ago, Chinook said:

Is it possible that the Northern Hemisphere averaged 850mb and surface temperatures are a bit below average right now?

Na. 

[TugHillMatt]

8 minutes ago, Angrysummons said:

There definitely was no western ridge after January 5th last winter. Between January 5th and March 5th, that had to go down as one of the worst cold season patterns I have ever seen in the lakes/ov. If there was a western ridge, it was so strong, it fell on top of us all lol.

Indeed! It was an extremely snowy winter in the CA mountains. If anything has been persistent, it is the extremely progressive weather pattern during the late fall and winter, and a pretty consistent split flow pattern.

[michsnowfreak]

34 minutes ago, Angrysummons said:

There definitely was no western ridge after January 5th last winter. Between January 5th and March 5th, that had to go down as one of the worst cold season patterns I have ever seen in the lakes/ov. If there was a western ridge, it was so strong, it fell on top of us all lol.

Last Winter was actually off to a really good start through about January 10th or so. Then from that point through early March the only good period of Winter we had was about a 10 day stretch from late January into early February. It was a solid stretch, but still, hardly any Winter Before & After that in that 2 month timeframe.

[cmillzz]

7 hours ago, Hoosier said:

The western ridge actually hasn't been nearly as much of a permanent fixture in the last 18-24 months, compared to the couple years prior.  The height/temp anomalies bear that out.  I think there is some selective memory going on.

I just don’t get why we have to go through such an awful pattern after some very nice days in October. 

[IWXwx]

8 hours ago, cmillzz said:

I just don’t get why we have to go through such an awful pattern after some very nice days in October. 

Look dude, I'm sure that you are a nice person and bad things do happen to nice people. The answer to your complaints is internal. You have a few choices. You can learn the science of weather and choose to embrace and enjoy what it brings. You can relocate to a climate that more suits your desires. You can continue to complain, be miserable, and wonder why people give you a hard time. The choice is yours.

[TugHillMatt]

5 hours ago, IWXwx said:

Look dude, I'm sure that you are a nice person and bad things do happen to nice people. The answer to your complaints is internal. You have a few choices. You can learn the science of weather and choose to embrace and enjoy what it brings. You can relocate to a climate that more suits your desires. You can continue to complain, be miserable, and wonder why people give you a hard time. The choice is yours.

I think most have been quite kind through all the complaining, despite it becoming tiresome. I think the puzzling thing is the claims made that the ridge has been set up over the west for such a "long" time. That simply isn't even true. Where has he been the past couple years? I would venture to say there has been more ridging in the central part of the country than either coast. I have been tempted to use the "troll" word, but have been trying to give grace...as I know I can get frustrated with a certain weather pattern. Regardless, the complaining about the "never reaching 50 again" should be done on the banter thread.

[Hoosier]

Have seen a lot of comparisons to the winter of 2013-14... not necessarily here but other forums/social media.  I wouldn't call something on a seasonal scale impossible, but people ought to remember what they are comparing to.  The combination of snow/persistent cold in that winter won't be easy to replicate, especially in the southern Lakes and parts of the Ohio Valley where that winter was more severe, relative to average.  I was still in LAF and had 75" of snow, which is like 3x average for that place.  

There are good reasons to think it will be more of a winter than the past couple.  I think that's where the bar should be, as it reduces the possibility of a let down.

[cmillzz]

Hearing talk of at least a mild first half of December per EPS ensembles and CFS. It would certainly make up for this disaster of a November, but backloaded winters are no good either...

[SchaumburgStormer]

6 minutes ago, cmillzz said:

Hearing talk of at least a mild first half of December per EPS ensembles and CFS. It would certainly make up for this disaster of a November, but backloaded winters are no good either...

winter is coming, it’s going to get cold. Sorry to burst your bubble. 

[cmillzz]

1 minute ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

winter is coming, it’s going to get cold. Sorry to burst your bubble. 

Lol

[cmillzz]

I'll be spending two weeks soaking up the sun in Arizona next month, so it's all good.

[cmillzz]

On 11/17/2017 at 7:02 PM, Snowstorms said:

I think you need to relocate to like South Texas or Arizona. Out there, snow or cold won't bother you, guaranteed. Trust me! 

That may happen in a few years from now perhaps.

[Hoosier]

4 minutes ago, cmillzz said:

I'll be spending two weeks soaking up the sun in Arizona next month, so it's all good.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

41 minutes ago, cmillzz said:

Hearing talk of at least a mild first half of December per EPS ensembles and CFS. It would certainly make up for this disaster of a November, but backloaded winters are no good either...

Almost all weather outlets in Canada are calling for a cold, stormy winter, possibly on par with 2007-2008 in terms of snowfall. I personally have serious doubts about that. I well remember past winters where seemingly everyone was calling for an epic season, only for it to turn out to be a dud - think 2001/2002 and 2011/2012. Not saying that this will be the case this year, but also don't think it will live up to the hype.

 

If the euro weeklies are correct, JBs call for a colder than average December will be in jeopardy.

[cmillzz]

36 minutes ago, Ottawa Blizzard said:

Almost all weather outlets in Canada are calling for a cold, stormy winter, possibly on par with 2007-2008 in terms of snowfall. I personally have serious doubts about that. I well remember past winters where seemingly everyone was calling for an epic season, only for it to turn out to be a dud - think 2001/2002 and 2011/2012. Not saying that this will be the case this year, but also don't think it will live up to the hype.

 

If the euro weeklies are correct, JBs call for a colder than average December will be in jeopardy.

Has JB ever called for a warmer than average winter in his life?

[Stebo]

38 minutes ago, Ottawa Blizzard said:

Almost all weather outlets in Canada are calling for a cold, stormy winter, possibly on par with 2007-2008 in terms of snowfall. I personally have serious doubts about that. I well remember past winters where seemingly everyone was calling for an epic season, only for it to turn out to be a dud - think 2001/2002 and 2011/2012. Not saying that this will be the case this year, but also don't think it will live up to the hype.

 

If the euro weeklies are correct, JBs call for a colder than average December will be in jeopardy.

JB isn't worth wasting your time on. He isn't worth even mentioning, as he has zero credibility at this point.

[RCNYILWX]

This isn't a bad look at all at the end of the 12z European ensemble today. Nice high amplitude ridging/-EPO on the Pacific side and looks like -NAO/-AO too. Also appears to be hinting back to -PNA with southwestern troughing and southeastern ridging. If that verified, could be an active period with good cold into the source region likely due to the -EPO.

Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk

[Hoosier]

33 minutes ago, cmillzz said:

Has JB ever called for a warmer than average winter in his life?

I think once or twice.  Can't remember when.

[Hoosier]

22 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

This isn't a bad look at all at the end of the 12z European ensemble today. Nice high amplitude ridging/-EPO on the Pacific side and looks like -NAO/-AO too. Also appears to be hinting back to -PNA with southwestern troughing and southeastern ridging. If that verified, could be an active period with good cold into the source region likely due to the -EPO.

Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk
 

Yeah, I'd take that.  The southeast ridge probably wouldn't be able to flex too much with the -NAO, but enough to have the storm track through the region.  Until then (beyond the first few days of Dec), looks like a punt worthy pattern by and large. 

[Ottawa Blizzard]

1 hour ago, cmillzz said:

Has JB ever called for a warmer than average winter in his life?

If my memory serves me correctly, he called for a warm winter in 2007-2008.

[michsnowfreak]

A few interesting food for thought items. And nothing more than food for thought. 

 

2013-14 had popped up on quite A few analog lists. I've been on record as saying that we will see severe and snowy winters, but we will never see another 2013 14 in Detroit. It was the definition of historic. However, as that analog has shown up someone pointed out that snow and ice coverage currently is actually ahead of this time in November of 2013.

 

Also, the ever changing (and it not to mention horrific) cfs now has January and February much colder than normal and much wetter than normal in the Great Lakes. It has also changed a torch December to just slightly warmer than normal. Again, the cfs changes literally multiple times a day, I just thought this was interesting to note as it has been showing warm more so than cold and wet (I also have heard it has a warm bias; it was certainly one of the warmer models for this coming winter).

[Jonger]

The first week of Dec looks like a dud.... Hopefully we see a pattern change at some point.

[RogueWaves]

16 hours ago, cmillzz said:

Has JB ever called for a warmer than average winter in his life?

 

15 hours ago, Hoosier said:

I think once or twice.  Can't remember when.

 

14 hours ago, Ottawa Blizzard said:

If my memory serves me correctly, he called for a warm winter in 2007-2008.

He has, but peeps need to keep in mind, that our warm winters are the EC's Nino snow-fest winters, so it seems like he never calls for warm. His focus isn't west of PA, and I think the EC has had better luck in the last 10-15 yrs. Mega-duds happen like the 11-12 fiasco, and last winter. But perhaps 95% of people missed those seasons, not just JB. Ofc, those that always lean warm look like they knew something the other 95% didn't, but as a fan of winter, you couldn't pay me to tune into what they're regularly dishing. And yeah, biases come thru - shouldn't be a news flash for anyone here.. 

[roardog]

1 hour ago, RogueWaves said:

 

 

He has, but peeps need to keep in mind, that our warm winters are the EC's Nino snow-fest winters, so it seems like he never calls for warm. His focus isn't west of PA, and I think the EC has had better luck in the last 10-15 yrs. Mega-duds happen like the 11-12 fiasco, and last winter. But perhaps 95% of people missed those seasons, not just JB. Ofc, those that always lean warm look like they knew something the other 95% didn't, but as a fan of winter, you couldn't pay me to tune into what they're regularly dishing. And yeah, biases come thru - shouldn't be a news flash for anyone here.. 

Sometimes he does deserve some credit though. He has been using this experimental hurricane ace analog technique since about late Summer and it's been pretty accurate so far. It showed a warm October for most of the country with it being a little cooler in the west(that turned out good). It showed a cold eastern half of the country for November. The month isn't over yet but it's going to at least have the right idea. It says December will also be colder than normal from the plains eastward. This goes against a typical Nina look so it will be interesting to see how that works out. Then, it shows a big flip later in January into February with the cold being centered more over the west with a fairly big SE ridge. The cold then comes back east for March. I have to say I'm kind of intrigued by this since the first couple of months seem to have been quite accurate and although there have been some swings in the medium range look from the models(which is typical)there still seems to be the general consensus of eventually leaning toward a +PNA pattern setting up which also favors his analog method for December.