RogueWaves Posted October 24, 2017 Share Posted October 24, 2017 19 hours ago, Hoosier said: Interesting about backloaded. Seems like most outlooks I've come across (out of the ones with monthly breakdowns) at least had a passable December. 1971 and 2007 had vastly differing Decembers. Those riding backloaded may want to take notice of frontloaded, lest they get a surprise.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 24, 2017 Share Posted October 24, 2017 39 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: Those riding backloaded may want to take notice of frontloaded, lest they get a surprise.. Yeah, it wouldn't be that shocking to get a system snow outside of the more traditional locations within the next 1-2 weeks or so. We look to have a mainly -EPO/-AO/-NAO during the period, so about all that can be said is that there's probably higher than climo odds of something out of season occurring. It is still pretty early to be talking about system snows outside of the northern tier but as said, this pattern probably raises the probabilities for some areas farther south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted October 24, 2017 Share Posted October 24, 2017 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: Yeah, it wouldn't be that shocking to get a system snow outside of the more traditional locations within the next 1-2 weeks or so. We look to have a mainly -EPO/-AO/-NAO during the period, so about all that can be said is that there's probably higher than climo odds of something out of season occurring. It is still pretty early to be talking about system snows outside of the northern tier but as said, this pattern probably raises the probabilities for some areas farther south. Agree. Pretty good early season setup for cold, but as you said, northern and lake locations look to cash in. Also, a little early season snow does not necessarily lead to frontloaded, although I'd be happy if Mike ends up being wrong. I'll be satisfied just to see some flakes flying for aesthetic purposes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 24, 2017 Share Posted October 24, 2017 2 hours ago, Hoosier said: Yeah, it wouldn't be that shocking to get a system snow outside of the more traditional locations within the next 1-2 weeks or so. We look to have a mainly -EPO/-AO/-NAO during the period, so about all that can be said is that there's probably higher than climo odds of something out of season occurring. It is still pretty early to be talking about system snows outside of the northern tier but as said, this pattern probably raises the probabilities for some areas farther south. It wouldn't surprise me in the next 10 days if something sneaks out. Beyond that the pattern does look to relax back some though. Of course that relaxation could be delayed since it is in the 10-15 day range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 5 hours ago, Stebo said: It wouldn't surprise me in the next 10 days if something sneaks out. Beyond that the pattern does look to relax back some though. Of course that relaxation could be delayed since it is in the 10-15 day range. 18z GFS had a big snow in Kentucky (yeah, really). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 2 minutes ago, Hoosier said: 18z GFS had a big snow in Kentucky (yeah, really). Okay, well that is probably not happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 1 minute ago, Stebo said: Okay, well that is probably not happening It would be impressive to get whiffed to the south on November 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 47 minutes ago, Hoosier said: It would be impressive to get whiffed to the south on November 2. Doubly so on the heals of all this extended warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
n1vek Posted October 26, 2017 Share Posted October 26, 2017 I remember a few years back there was a lot of talk of growth of October snow cover in Siberia have a correlation to the macro weather patterns later in winter. The gist was that lots of snow cover growth = snowy and cold winter in the Midwest. This this still a thing? Or was it disproven? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted October 26, 2017 Share Posted October 26, 2017 1 hour ago, n1vek said: I remember a few years back there was a lot of talk of growth of October snow cover in Siberia have a correlation to the macro weather patterns later in winter. The gist was that lots of snow cover growth = snowy and cold winter in the Midwest. This this still a thing? Or was it disproven? Hoosier posted on this somewhere above. The past 2 seasons haven't really worked out so well for predictors for the E CONUS winters. So, what looked very promising 4 or 5 yrs ago as a predictive tool for us easterners isn't all that reliable right now. Maybe there will be further research/learnings to tweak it for better performance. I'd look up Judah Cohen's site if you want to know the latest developments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted October 26, 2017 Share Posted October 26, 2017 1 hour ago, n1vek said: I remember a few years back there was a lot of talk of growth of October snow cover in Siberia have a correlation to the macro weather patterns later in winter. The gist was that lots of snow cover growth = snowy and cold winter in the Midwest. This this still a thing? Or was it disproven? 30 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: Hoosier posted on this somewhere above. The past 2 seasons haven't really worked out so well for predictors for the E CONUS winters. So, what looked very promising 4 or 5 yrs ago as a predictive tool for us easterners isn't all that reliable right now. Maybe there will be further research/learnings to tweak it for better performance. I'd look up Judah Cohen's site if you want to know the latest developments. It was actually RC: On 10/17/2017 at 6:07 PM, RCNYILWX said: The SAI theory has simply not worked out the past few winters so perhaps it's not as useful as was thought. It makes sense conceptually that Canadian snow cover would correlate to winter temperatures because that's our source region in times without true cross polar flow, which is fairly often. So Canadian snow cover will be another variable to watch moving forward. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 4, 2017 Share Posted November 4, 2017 A little nervous about December. The east based Ninas are less wintry than I'd like to see. Snowfall is tricky of course as you don't need a cold month overall to get that, but there would be an increased risk of not being able to retain what falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 4, 2017 Author Share Posted November 4, 2017 6 minutes ago, Hoosier said: A little nervous about December. The east based Ninas are less wintry than I'd like to see. Snowfall is tricky of course as you don't need a cold month overall to get that, but there would be an increased risk of not being able to retain what falls. Isn't Dec the warmest month typically in an east based nina? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 21 hours ago, Hoosier said: A little nervous about December. The east based Ninas are less wintry than I'd like to see. Snowfall is tricky of course as you don't need a cold month overall to get that, but there would be an increased risk of not being able to retain what falls. I agree, Dec could be reminiscent of the 07-08 Nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 5, 2017 Author Share Posted November 5, 2017 15 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: I agree, Dec could be reminiscent of the 07-08 Nina. If take it in a heartbeat. Still had a nice snowstorm in Dec. And an epic Feb+Mar to follow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 16, 2017 Share Posted November 16, 2017 La Nino? Weird to see this temp distribution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 16, 2017 Share Posted November 16, 2017 2 hours ago, Hoosier said: La Nino? Weird to see this temp distribution La Dunno more like it. Honestly though that map is very misleading when you look at the scale. For a 3 month period to be 0.5-1.0 isn't really saying much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 16, 2017 Author Share Posted November 16, 2017 5 hours ago, Hoosier said: La Nino? Weird to see this temp distribution That model is almost cfs-esque with it's wild changes. I mean, it's showing a departure of +0.3° at Detroit and -0.1° at Atlanta. At face value it would essentially be typical winters for both. But it sure is going against the strong gradient theme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted November 16, 2017 Share Posted November 16, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 On 11/4/2017 at 2:46 PM, Hoosier said: A little nervous about December. The east based Ninas are less wintry than I'd like to see. Snowfall is tricky of course as you don't need a cold month overall to get that, but there would be an increased risk of not being able to retain what falls. I'm starting to worry about December as well. The CFS has been wanting to blow torch us and the GFS seems to warm up the end of the run. I know it's still 2 weeks till Dec 1st, but the GFS has been LOCKED into a warm period and there has been no hiccups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 38 minutes ago, Jonger said: I'm starting to worry about December as well. The CFS has been wanting to blow torch us and the GFS seems to warm up the end of the run. I know it's still 2 weeks till Dec 1st, but the GFS has been LOCKED into a warm period and there has been no hiccups. Why are you using the 240+ GFS(god awful variability) and the CFS(which has a warm bias and generally just sucks as a whole)? I remember when th CFS said November was gonna be a blow torch as late as the last week of October, if you look at the anomaly maps, you can see how that's going. Not saying it won't be warmer, but I'm not ready to buy into that yet, and won't be for at least a week, probably 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 1 hour ago, Jonger said: I'm starting to worry about December as well. The CFS has been wanting to blow torch us and the GFS seems to warm up the end of the run. I know it's still 2 weeks till Dec 1st, but the GFS has been LOCKED into a warm period and there has been no hiccups. 44 minutes ago, NWLinnCountyIA said: Why are you using the 240+ GFS(god awful variability) and the CFS(which has a warm bias and generally just sucks as a whole)? I remember when th CFS said November was gonna be a blow torch as late as the last week of October, if you look at the anomaly maps, you can see how that's going. Not saying it won't be warmer, but I'm not ready to buy into that yet, and won't be for at least a week, probably 2. Jonger has a point to be concerned, Decembers in La Ninas tend to be warm especially in the first half of the month. Yeah the GFS/CFS suck but they are falling in frame of what is typical for La Nina Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aleksey Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 I feel like I’m pretty well in that “safe zone” for cold and snow. Snow is a matter of weeks and or days away, if this pattern could produce some LES. I think it will be until early December before my snow starts cranking up, but the cold will not be a problem for me. I’m locking into a cool/cold pattern for the foreseeable future. A “warm” or “blowtorch” day for me is in the upper 40’s. November has been about -4° BA so far and my highest day has been 48 so far in November. Had a high of 24° last Friday, which was lovely! Just cold and dry though and looks to be 2-3 more weeks before I get some good and consistent snow firing up for the winter. My average is 75” per year, so I’m just waiting haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 I don't know. The ensembles go out to early December now and I'm not seeing anything that looks like a typical early December La Nina pattern shaping up. If anything, it looks more like an El Nino type pattern with an Aleutian low, a mild Canada and +PNA. It could be mild in that pattern(probably not a blowtorch though) but not because of a typical La Nina pattern. Then again, the models could be completely wrong too. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmillzz Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 See, it will be a backloaded winter followed by a cold spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmillzz Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 1 hour ago, roardog said: I don't know. The ensembles go out to early December now and I'm not seeing anything that looks like a typical early December La Nina pattern shaping up. If anything, it looks more like an El Nino type pattern with an Aleutian low, a mild Canada and +PNA. It could be mild in that pattern(probably not a blowtorch though) but not because of a typical La Nina pattern. Then again, the models could be completely wrong too. lol It’s ridiculous and really starting to get on my nerves now. It doesn’t want to let go of that east trough west ridge regime. I mean come on. This isn’t a pattern we’re supposed to see during a La Niña. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted November 18, 2017 Share Posted November 18, 2017 1 hour ago, cmillzz said: It’s ridiculous and really starting to get on my nerves now. It doesn’t want to let go of that east trough west ridge regime. I mean come on. This isn’t a pattern we’re supposed to see during a La Niña. I think you need to relocate to like South Texas or Arizona. Out there, snow or cold won't bother you, guaranteed. Trust me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 18, 2017 Share Posted November 18, 2017 7 hours ago, roardog said: I don't know. The ensembles go out to early December now and I'm not seeing anything that looks like a typical early December La Nina pattern shaping up. If anything, it looks more like an El Nino type pattern with an Aleutian low, a mild Canada and +PNA. It could be mild in that pattern(probably not a blowtorch though) but not because of a typical La Nina pattern. Then again, the models could be completely wrong too. lol Things look a tad better today. I guess we will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChicagoNWburbs Posted November 18, 2017 Share Posted November 18, 2017 Long-time lurker, first-time poster. Longer range doesn't look as bad today as it has for most of the past several days. Western ridging appears it may relax a bit toward the beginning of December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmillzz Posted November 18, 2017 Share Posted November 18, 2017 I am almost certain that climate change is the reason that perennial western ridge literally never goes away (And also for that massive warm blob in the pacific). It’s just unfortunate that it nearly always forces a trough to develop further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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