Stebo Posted October 17, 2017 Share Posted October 17, 2017 Just now, RCNYILWX said: Yeah I'm hoping for a more classic Niña pattern this winter, would be fine to have an 07-08 like pattern. It seems like there's some cause for optimism that November won't be an all out torch like last year. Just realized I forgot 08-09 in cold Niña composite but it doesn't really change the results I showed. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk 07-08 would be a dream, that winter had everything. Also included the biggest snowstorm I ever seen in my life, Mount Pleasant MI had 20" of snow with the Super Tuesday storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 17, 2017 Share Posted October 17, 2017 1 minute ago, RCNYILWX said: Yeah I'm hoping for a more classic Niña pattern this winter, would be fine to have an 07-08 like pattern. It seems like there's some cause for optimism that November won't be an all out torch like last year. Just realized I forgot 08-09 in cold Niña composite but it doesn't really change the results I showed. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk What are your thoughts on Cohens theory of Siberian Snow cover affecting our winters? From my research it seems Canadian snow cover has a much larger impact on our winters than Siberia does. Any thoughts on this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted October 17, 2017 Share Posted October 17, 2017 What are your thoughts on Cohens theory of Siberian Snow cover affecting our winters? From my research it seems Canadian snow cover has a much larger impact on our winters than Siberia does. Any thoughts on this? The SAI theory has simply not worked out the past few winters so perhaps it's not as useful as was thought. It makes sense conceptually that Canadian snow cover would correlate to winter temperatures because that's our source region in times without true cross polar flow, which is fairly often. So Canadian snow cover will be another variable to watch moving forward.Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted October 17, 2017 Author Share Posted October 17, 2017 It's hard to fully read all of the model years in your outlook examples, but it's interesting to note that there does seem to be quite a correlation between November's temperature departure and the following Winter here. There is little to no correlation in a non enso year. And by correlation I mean temps. Cold November's mean a cold (but not necessarily snowy) Winter and likewise a mild November means a mild (but not necessarily low snow) winter. Still, the most favorable for winter lovers, in a Nina, is a cold November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted October 19, 2017 Share Posted October 19, 2017 17-18 winter forecast, John Dee http://johndee.com//seasonalfcst/2017-18/seasonalforecast.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slow poke Posted October 19, 2017 Share Posted October 19, 2017 3 hours ago, weatherbo said: 17-18 winter forecast, John Dee http://johndee.com//seasonalfcst/2017-18/seasonalforecast.htm I was going to post this last week and forgot. His thoughts are kind of what I'm thinking for this winter also, only change would be to put a really small area of "Way Above Average" snowfall about 10 miles wide from Detroit south to just north of the Ohio border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted October 19, 2017 Share Posted October 19, 2017 29 minutes ago, slow poke said: I was going to post this last week and forgot. His thoughts are kind of what I'm thinking for this winter also, only change would be to put a really small area of "Way Above Average" snowfall about 10 miles wide from Detroit south to just north of the Ohio border. SE flow LES off of Erie as a recurring theme, or does that happen to by yby?? do tell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 19, 2017 Share Posted October 19, 2017 8 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: SE flow LES off of Erie as a recurring theme, or does that happen to by yby?? do tell Alternative explanation: the michsnowfreak jackpot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted October 19, 2017 Share Posted October 19, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 19, 2017 Share Posted October 19, 2017 And the DJF trimonthly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slow poke Posted October 19, 2017 Share Posted October 19, 2017 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: Alternative explanation: the michsnowfreak jackpot This...........Bet on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 19, 2017 Share Posted October 19, 2017 53 minutes ago, slow poke said: This...........Bet on it. Haha. Does seem like Wyandotte has had an ability to avoid snow minimums, relatively speaking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted October 19, 2017 Share Posted October 19, 2017 2 hours ago, Hoosier said: And the DJF trimonthly Not sure why these would be different, but I like my enhanced versions better, lol. Especially the precip for my region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveSN+ Posted October 19, 2017 Share Posted October 19, 2017 Figures the first year I move out of the midwest it could be a big year there for winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 19, 2017 Share Posted October 19, 2017 11 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: Not sure why these would be different, but I like my enhanced versions better, lol. Especially the precip for my region. Hmm, seems like the difference is that yours is a 2 outcome outlook... either above or below average with no "normal." Never seen that before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 19, 2017 Share Posted October 19, 2017 39 minutes ago, LoveSN+ said: Figures the first year I move out of the midwest it could be a big year there for winter. You're in Upstates forum region, come say hi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
krfd Posted October 19, 2017 Share Posted October 19, 2017 Figures the first year I move out of the midwest it could be a big year there for winter. nah, I spent a couple grand on a full suspension fat tire bike so I can ride on the snow, so at least N. IL will find the screw hole. Teleconnections should factor in forum members snowblower and winter sports equipment purchases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 19, 2017 Share Posted October 19, 2017 2 hours ago, Hoosier said: Haha. Does seem like Wyandotte has had an ability to avoid snow minimums, relatively speaking. Wondering if Geos FedExed his magnet to him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveSN+ Posted October 19, 2017 Share Posted October 19, 2017 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: You're in Upstates forum region, come say hi. Been posting in the New England thread, but I'll come pop my head in the Upstate as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted October 19, 2017 Share Posted October 19, 2017 2 hours ago, Hoosier said: Hmm, seems like the difference is that yours is a 2 outcome outlook... either above or below average with no "normal." Never seen that before. Those outlooks are from the experimental page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 20, 2017 Share Posted October 20, 2017 8 hours ago, Hoosier said: And the DJF trimonthly I can buy into this outlook, though I would probably fill in a bit of KS/NE with some above average precip, and probably eliminate some in the E ND/MN area. As for the temps I would probably lower the SW a bit and increase chances along the Carolina coast/FL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted October 20, 2017 Author Share Posted October 20, 2017 22 hours ago, Hoosier said: Haha. Does seem like Wyandotte has had an ability to avoid snow minimums, relatively speaking. The I-94 corridor in SE MI has been a magnet of sorts for lake effect in recent years & overall synoptic jackpots. Last winter, as unenjoyable as it was, I racked up 41.6” of snow despite the warmth. The 94 corridor definitely jackpotted that winter. The year before, another warm winter, while I racked up 35” it was a very south to north gradient, with Detroits northern burbs easily getting 50”+. The takeaway from this is that even in warm winters, total snowfall is not necessarily an issue. Its all about storm tracks, timing, etc. So we muddled through the last 2 sucky winters and made them tolerable. But what I wouldn’t give to go back to the glory days of 2007-2015 (minus 2011-12 of course lol). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted October 20, 2017 Share Posted October 20, 2017 20 hours ago, CoachLB said: Those outlooks are from the experimental page. Yep, just noticed that at the bottom of the legend..thx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 22, 2017 Share Posted October 22, 2017 I'm becoming a little more excited for this region for the winter...I enjoyed RC's post above, it looks like initially that this November will avoid the AK black hole. I got a bit nervous when that started developing this month, luckily that looks temporary. I'm hoping I can post an outlook of sorts by early November, although regardless I'm hoping for something different than the last two winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted October 22, 2017 Share Posted October 22, 2017 1 hour ago, OHweather said: I'm becoming a little more excited for this region for the winter...I enjoyed RC's post above, it looks like initially that this November will avoid the AK black hole. I got a bit nervous when that started developing this month, luckily that looks temporary. I'm hoping I can post an outlook of sorts by early November, although regardless I'm hoping for something different than the last two winters. The IRI certainly likes your area for COLD! That'd be a big change right there. (Pretty sure it's for this winter not 2019) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted October 23, 2017 Share Posted October 23, 2017 51 minutes ago, Angrysummons said: Thats for the winter of 2018-19 Likely a typo and meant to say 2018 and not 2019. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted October 23, 2017 Share Posted October 23, 2017 I only check seasonal forecasts for entertainment value, but ran across Mike Ryan's thoughts on IND's Facebook page. Of course, he concentrates on the Indiana area and from what I've heard, he pretty much mimics most others' thoughts. If you don't want to watch, he basically is going along with CPC with near normal temps and above normal precip . He does feel that with a -QBO and an east-based La Nina, leading to a possibly suppressed Southeast ridge, our area should do better than last year in the snow dept. He thinks that there will be great variability, as Central IN may be in the battle zone and uses '71-'72 and '07-'08 as primary analogs. He also feels winter will be backloaded. He brought up Super Tuesday severe and the I 71 March snowstorm. That's all I can remember. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 23, 2017 Share Posted October 23, 2017 28 minutes ago, IWXwx said: I only check seasonal forecasts for entertainment value, but ran across Mike Ryan's thoughts on IND's Facebook page. Of course, he concentrates on the Indiana area and from what I've heard, he pretty much mimics most others' thoughts. If you don't want to watch, he basically is going along with CPC with near normal temps and above normal precip . He does feel that with a -QBO and an east-based La Nina, leading to a possibly suppressed Southeast ridge, our area should do better than last year in the snow dept. He thinks that there will be great variability, as Central IN may be in the battle zone and uses '71-'72 and '07-'08 as primary analogs. He also feels winter will be backloaded. He brought up Super Tuesday severe and the I 71 March snowstorm. That's all I can remember. lol Interesting about backloaded. Seems like most outlooks I've come across (out of the ones with monthly breakdowns) at least had a passable December. 1971 and 2007 had vastly differing Decembers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 23, 2017 Share Posted October 23, 2017 Book 07-08 please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted October 24, 2017 Share Posted October 24, 2017 Following up on my previous post regarding correlating the November pattern and temps to DJF pattern and temps during Ninas, I added individual month data for each composite (summarizing the 5 warmest Novembers as all +4 or more). At least based off Chicago data, the dataset features no cold Niña winters when November was far above normal. The warmest November to precede a colder than normal winter was 2010 at +1.2. Still can never rule things out in long range forecasting, but based off this it seems safe to have higher confidence in leaning normal to colder than normal if November manages to end up cold and warm if November torches like last year. For what it's worth, the new Euro weeklies trended much colder for early to mid November with a strong signal for AK ridging/-EPO. The rest of the month seems to relax the pattern on the weeklies, but noteworthy that it's been at least a few runs of the weeklies in a row without a signal for an extended duration of a black hole over Alaska.Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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