Winter of 2017-18 discussion, thoughts

[RogueWaves]

2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Out of the years I posted, 1998 might be the most notable exception to the warm rule, though it took until the January storm to really get going and then there was a big meltdown later that month. Had that storm not happened, I think that winter would be looked upon less fondly.

Wow, looks wildly variable. Totally agree with the November showing the face of winter like last year. Not perfectly, but the majority of the time certainly, with the exception of certain developing strong Nino's when the traditional Christmas flip happens. Other than that, yeah, Nov is tell-tale month for almost all other ENSO states. 

[michsnowfreak]

Took a quick look at the Nina Novembers. Absolutely no trend whatsoever. More cold than warm, but no trends regarding the winters. With Ninos there is more of a trend (ie strong means a good chance it will be mild, weak a good chance it will be cold).

[Hoosier]

Here are cool neutrals from the same timeframe (mid 90s onward).  2001 was another case of the warm November foretelling of a rather lackluster winter (I know there was some good lake effect in late Dec).

 

 

[Hoosier]

29 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Took a quick look at the Nina Novembers. Absolutely no trend whatsoever. More cold than warm, but no trends regarding the winters. With Ninos there is more of a trend (ie strong means a good chance it will be mild, weak a good chance it will be cold).

Take a look at your Nina/cool neutral Novembers from the time I posted that were +2 or warmer. How many of those winters were colder and snowier than average in Detroit?  

[BuffaloWeather]

8 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Here are cool neutrals from the same timeframe (mid 90s onward).  2001 was another case of the warm November foretelling of a rather lackluster winter (I know there was some good lake effect in late Dec).

 

 

 82 inches at buffalo airport on Christmas Day week from Monday to Friday. I lived in Cheektowaga at the time in hardest hit area. It was above normal up until that week with record lake temps. Overall I believe it was a warmer then normal year temperature wise.

[Hoosier]

5 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

 82 inches at buffalo airport on Christmas Day week from Monday to Friday. I lived in Cheektowaga at the time in hardest hit area. It was above normal up until that week with record lake temps. Overall I believe it was a warmer then normal year temperature wise.

DJF 2001-02

[RogueWaves]

3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

 82 inches at buffalo airport on Christmas Day week from Monday to Friday. I lived in Cheektowaga at the time in hardest hit area. 

An epic period for those lucky few who score on a WSW flow. Parts of Lwr Mich included. Funny, of the 3 places I've hung my hat that do get LES, none has benefited from that flow direction. Always a heartbreak flow in my book. 

[RogueWaves]

2 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

DJF 2001-02

Yeah, sadly, only a handful of good times sprinkled in with many forgettable seasons from 97-98 to 02-03.  

[Stebo]

1 hour ago, RogueWaves said:

Not certain we can trot to the bank to deposit our bonafide Nina results quite yet. Might play out a little different than analog yrs. 

Not sure where your second quote came from but it is wrong with respect to how the atmosphere has been acting as of late, it is definitely in La Nina mode right now, also there is no guarantee it goes back to neutral until at least April from what I have been seeing on long range projections across the board.

[RogueWaves]

1 minute ago, Stebo said:

Not sure where your second quote came from but it is wrong with respect to how the atmosphere has been acting as of late, it is definitely in La Nina mode right now, also there is no guarantee it goes back to neutral until at least April from what I have been seeing on long range projections across the board.

5 days ago. Have things changed much since then?

http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/wcp/wcasp/enso_update_latest.html

 

[Stebo]

Just now, RogueWaves said:

5 days ago. Have things changed much since then?

http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/wcp/wcasp/enso_update_latest.html

 

I disagree with their assertion, maybe they are looking globally but on this continent it has been La Nina like for the last month and a half.

[BuffaloWeather]

24 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Not sure where your second quote came from but it is wrong with respect to how the atmosphere has been acting as of late, it is definitely in La Nina mode right now, also there is no guarantee it goes back to neutral until at least April from what I have been seeing on long range projections across the board.

Do all La Ninas have a southeast ridge and northwest trough with an Alaskan vortex? This looks like the pattern that was in place for the last 2/3 years.

 

[Stebo]

Just now, BuffaloWeather said:

Do all La Ninas have a southeast ridge and northwest trough with an Alaskan vortex? This looks like the pattern that was in place for the last 2/3 years.

 

 

That is a predominant pattern especially once you get into winter. It can show up early in fall though November can have a break from it as Hoosier noted.

[blizzardof96]

57 minutes ago, Stebo said:

I disagree with their assertion, maybe they are looking globally but on this continent it has been La Nina like for the last month and a half.

I definitely agree. The subsurface temps are quite anomalous and will continue to upwell throughout the fall. A downward trend across the majority of the TROPAC has been occurring and should continue.

[RogueWaves]

By this time last year per 3-month ONI values we were clearly into a weak Nina. Looking at the NOAA table, we've yet to log an official Nina value. 

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php

 

[michsnowfreak]

18 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Take a look at your Nina/cool neutral Novembers from the time I posted that were +2 or warmer. How many of those winters were colder and snowier than average in Detroit?  

First of all, we are jumping the gun big time assuming this Nov is +2F or greater. Even if it is, correlation is not much and its such a small sample size.

 

Looking at Ninas since 1950 where November had a +2F or greater departure, it has happened 6 times:

1964-65, 1975-76, 1998-99, 1999-00, 2011-12, 2016-17:

 

3 of those winters were snowier than normal, 1 near normal, 2 below normal. 4 were milder than normal, 2 colder than normal.

 

On a broader sense, I looked last year at Novembers overall and there is NO correlation to the following winter.

[Hoosier]

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

First of all, we are jumping the gun big time assuming this Nov is +2F or greater. Even if it is, correlation is not much and its such a small sample size.

 

Looking at Ninas since 1950 where November had a +2F or greater departure, it has happened 6 times:

1964-65, 1975-76, 1998-99, 1999-00, 2011-12, 2016-17:

 

3 of those winters were snowier than normal, 1 near normal, 2 below normal. 4 were milder than normal, 2 colder than normal.

 

On a broader sense, I looked last year at Novembers overall and there is NO correlation to the following winter.

I'm merely running "what if" scenarios.  

[Snowstorms]

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

I'm merely running "what if" scenarios.  

I did see some correlation between November temperature profiles and the following winter outcome at YYZ. On average, a warmer November did yield a warmer winter and vice versa in La Nina years.

I'd assume it varies geographically, but there is some correlation, especially the upper air pattern, between November and the following winter. Now with that being said, if we see a continuous AK Vortex through much of November, then I'd be a little worried about December's upper air pattern.   

How did 1971 and 1974 November fair? 

[Jonger]

17 hours ago, RogueWaves said:

By this time last year per 3-month ONI values we were clearly into a weak Nina. Looking at the NOAA table, we've yet to log an official Nina value. 

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php

 

I'd like to keep the figures around -0.2 to -0.4 

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, Snowstorms said:

I did see some correlation between November temperature profiles and the following winter outcome at YYZ. On average, a warmer November did yield a warmer winter and vice versa in La Nina years.

I'd assume it varies geographically, but there is some correlation, especially the upper air pattern, between November and the following winter. Now with that being said, if we see a continuous AK Vortex through much of November, then I'd be a little worried about December's upper air pattern.   

How did 1971 and 1974 November fair? 

Just to clarify, my comment about having done November-winter comparisons last year, I meant there was no overall correlation in November, I didn't just isolate Nina winters.

 

Nov 1971 was cold at DTW with 4.2", but winter itself was very meh for snow. Nov 1974 was just slightly below normal temp wise at DTW but saw 7.7" of snow. Dec 1974 was Detroits snowiest Dec on record. We hit the seasonal normal by the end of Dec! Normal Nov snow is currently 1.5" (interestingly the 20th century avg was 3"...so Nov snowfall decreased while overall snow increased in the 21st century).

[michsnowfreak]

Its always interesting to see what the winter will bring because the scenarios/possibilities are endless. Obviously in November, a snowlover wants anomalous cold (but even then, cold Nov doesn't mean snowy and warm Nov doesn't  mean a sneak snowstorm cant hit). But winter a as whole...cold doesn't mean snowy, warm doesn't mean snowless, and everything in between. We really are entering the stretch where everyone starts to get curious but we are still a bit away from establishing any idea.

[RogueWaves]

19 hours ago, Jonger said:

I'd like to keep the figures around -0.2 to -0.4 

Reading your response, one could get the idea, that we have a say in where it ends up, lol. But, as long as we're just talking scenarios here, I'm right with you on that. As noted by Stebo, the list of Nina analogs that produced the higher precip anom's across SMI weren't as good of snow seasons as those maps would lead one to think. Hmm. All of SMI (and especially SEMI) does best in the snow dept when cold dominates. For SEMI, the colder the better as we've recently witnessed four yrs ago. Cold first, then add moisture, then add track, then add dominant pattern = kismet 

So, with ENSO neutral being our best scenario historically and the best shot at a snowy winter, it gets my vote over a Nina. Yeah, those full-on Nina precip maps look really great but can mean rainers and mixers just as easily, as the records seem to indicate. I think that in most winters, we see plenty of moisture around SMI, the question is always how much of it comes in the form of dendrites? I'm that kid from the 70's show, and I like to have my storms and snow cover too.

As posted, while the sub-surface waters are looking like an impending full-on Nina is in the cards, it's not a done deal, with the model avg pointing more weak Nina. I would love to score the Nina moisture anom's without the constant melt-offs of '07-08, so a "pump-fake" into Nina territory but overall Nada could work wonders for me. 

Last winter didn't act anything like what the ENSO state would have dictated, so ultimately, regardless of the official values, I know the results I'm hoping for in mby. It may come via other player's contributions like the -QBO for one. As said originally, and I'll add that I don't need full-on winter in Nov, but I highly doubt we repeat last Nov's crazy torch-fest conditions. To wit, certain peeps "lol'd" me.  

[Jonger]

3 hours ago, RogueWaves said:

Reading your response, one could get the idea, that we have a say in where it ends up, lol. But, as long as we're just talking scenarios here, I'm right with you on that. As noted by Stebo, the list of Nina analogs that produced the higher precip anom's across SMI weren't as good of snow seasons as those maps would lead one to think. Hmm. All of SMI (and especially SEMI) does best in the snow dept when cold dominates. For SEMI, the colder the better as we've recently witnessed four yrs ago. Cold first, then add moisture, then add track, then add dominant pattern = kismet 

So, with ENSO neutral being our best scenario historically and the best shot at a snowy winter, it gets my vote over a Nina. Yeah, those full-on Nina precip maps look really great but can mean rainers and mixers just as easily, as the records seem to indicate. I think that in most winters, we see plenty of moisture around SMI, the question is always how much of it comes in the form of dendrites? I'm that kid from the 70's show, and I like to have my storms and snow cover too.

As posted, while the sub-surface waters are looking like an impending full-on Nina is in the cards, it's not a done deal, with the model avg pointing more weak Nina. I would love to score the Nina moisture anom's without the constant melt-offs of '07-08, so a "pump-fake" into Nina territory but overall Nada could work wonders for me. 

Last winter didn't act anything like what the ENSO state would have dictated, so ultimately, regardless of the official values, I know the results I'm hoping for in mby. It may come via other player's contributions like the -QBO for one. As said originally, and I'll add that I don't need full-on winter in Nov, but I highly doubt we repeat last Nov's crazy torch-fest conditions. To wit, certain peeps "lol'd" me.  

Cold is the most important factor in a good winter. Yes, the storm track is important, but in a very active pattern, we tend to miss more than we hit.

In a cold pattern, even I'll accumulate 6 to 10 inches with clippers and LES showers. At least one of those LES patterns will train enough NW bands to make it look like winter should.

[Hoosier]

The thing I have the most confidence in is a more active winter than last year.  I think there will be more interesting stuff to track, and much of the area stands a good chance of being wetter than average.  As far as temps... if forced to make a call at this point, I'd probably lean warmer than average at least for the southern/eastern 2/3 of the region, i.e. most of us, but area wide warmer than average can't be ruled out.   A colder outcome is possible but I'm hesitant to entertain the idea of colder than average getting too far south/east.  In general, better chances of colder anomalies with northern/western extent, and especially outside the region over toward the northern Plains and perhaps Intermountain West.

Overall, a more satisfactory experience for winter lovers than last winter, but enough thaws for beavis and michsnowfreak to be spending some time in the complaint thread.  

[RogueWaves]

24 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

The thing I have the most confidence in is a more active winter than last year.  I think there will be more interesting stuff to track, and much of the area stands a good chance of being wetter than average.  As far as temps... if forced to make a call at this point, I'd probably lean warmer than average at least for the southern/eastern 2/3 of the region, i.e. most of us, but area wide warmer than average can't be ruled out.   A colder outcome is possible but I'm hesitant to entertain the idea of colder than average getting too far south/east.  In general, better chances of colder anomalies with northern/western extent, and especially outside the region over toward the northern Plains and perhaps Intermountain West.

Overall, a more satisfactory experience for winter lovers than last winter, but enough thaws for beavis and michsnowfreak to be spending some time in the complaint thread.  

Probably the majority are leaning along those same lines including John Dee. His recently issued outlook paints SMI with a very 2007-08 deja-vu look. Not too cold, but above avg snow at least a possibility. Gotta love Dee and his "Poor Sledding" across Dixie

http://johndee.com//seasonalfcst/2017-18/seasonalforecast.htm

 

[RogueWaves]

4 hours ago, Angrysummons said:

If I had to guess right now, I would guess above average snowfall over the OV/lower lakes and below average over the upper/central mid-west.

Ohio is SO due a Whopper winter, nothing would surprise me less than an OHV epicenter flashback to 1917-18

[Harry]

I would strongly advise all to avoid any use of analogs during very active solar periods ( aka near/at solar max and very active solar periods as those periods had ) and thus see the 1950s and late 90s etc.

 

Hope all is well with everyone!

[RCNYILWX]

In a prior post, Hoosier posted stats for warm La Nina Novembers and what the winters ended up doing. For the research for our local winter outlook at NWS Chicago, I did something similar. First I grouped all winters of the 1950-2017 ONI from the CPC page into warmest 22, middle 23 and coldest 22 at Chicago. Then I grouped the Niña episodes of those terciles into warm (9), near normal (6) and cold (6). Here are the November h5 composites, November climate division temperature anomalies, and subsequent DJF h5 composite anomalies.

From these graphics, it appears there will be utility in how the mid/upper pattern sets up in November to potentially give clues to the winter pattern. If a big northeast Pacific/AK vortex sets up, that could increase odds for warmer to well above normal winter, and perhaps within range of normal to below if sustained Aleutian (-WPO) or -EPO ridging sets up.

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[Stebo]

6 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

In a prior post, Hoosier posted stats for warm La Nina Novembers and what the winters ended up doing. For the research for our local winter outlook at NWS Chicago, I did something similar. First I grouped all winters of the 1950-2017 ONI from the CPC page into warmest 22, middle 23 and coldest 22 at Chicago. Then I grouped the Niña episodes of those terciles into warm (9), near normal (6) and cold (6). Here are the November h5 composites, November climate division temperature anomalies, and subsequent DJF h5 composite anomalies.

From these graphics, it appears there will be utility in how the mid/upper pattern sets up in November to potentially give clues to the winter pattern. If a big northeast Pacific/AK vortex sets up, that could increase odds for warmer to well above normal winter, and perhaps within range of normal to below if sustained Aleutian (-WPO) or -EPO ridging sets up.

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I will take the middle image for the win. I can work with the bottom one too. I will hard pass on the top one though

[RCNYILWX]

I will take the middle image for the win. I can work with the bottom one too. I will hard pass on the top one though

Yeah I'm hoping for a more classic Niña pattern this winter, would be fine to have an 07-08 like pattern. It seems like there's some cause for optimism that November won't be an all out torch like last year.

Just realized I forgot 08-09 in cold Niña composite but it doesn't really change the results I showed.

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