Winter of 2017-18 discussion, thoughts

[Stebo]

1 minute ago, Hoosier said:

67-68 and 96-97 had big screw zones, but in different places lol

 

Yeah 67-68 almost looks more weak nino to me with that type of projection.

[OHweather]

2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Did you do 1967-68 and 1996-97 twice due to those being your strongest analogues?

Yes. Really, none of them are perfect fits but at the moment those two are what I thought were the closest.  I don't think the double weighted ones make huge changes overall. 

[RogueWaves]

8 hours ago, Stebo said:

Weird with the precip plots of those analogs you'd think this area would have done well for snow but only two of those winters were above normal for snowfall and the others were meh.

Not sure which two? Guessing 04-05, & 07-08. If true then you have to also include 74-75 if only for Detroit's #2 all time storm.

[Stebo]

2 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

Not sure which two? Guessing 04-05, & 07-08. If true then you have to also include 74-75 if only for Detroit's #2 all time storm.

62-63 29.7"

67-68 30.6"

74-75 63.1"

89-90 41.8"

96-97 43.1"

00-01 39.0"

07-08 71.7"

04-05 wasn't included on his list but that was 63.7"

[RogueWaves]

4 minutes ago, Stebo said:

62-63 29.7"

67-68 30.6"

74-75 63.1"

89-90 41.8"

96-97 43.1"

00-01 39.0"

07-08 71.7"

04-05 wasn't included on his list but that was 63.7"

Too bad it wasn't on the list, eh?  Instead of 00-01. Dec 2000 is legendary over this way, though I was living in S. Bend at that time, I figured Detroit would've done well too. Really surprised at that total tbh. Looks like maybe more of a La Nada state vs Nina state would yield a more promising list for Detroit proper.

[Stebo]

Just now, RogueWaves said:

Too bad it wasn't on the list, eh?  Instead of 00-01. Dec 2000 is legendary over this way, though I was living in S. Bend at that time, I figured Detroit would've done well too. Really surprised at that total tbh. Looks like maybe more of a La Nada state vs Nina state would yield a more promising list for Detroit proper.

Yeah it was, though mostly dominated by one storm here. Similar to last winter to be honest, the rest of the winter was a snoozefest.

[Jonger]

18 hours ago, Stebo said:

62-63 29.7"

67-68 30.6"

74-75 63.1"

89-90 41.8"

96-97 43.1"

00-01 39.0"

07-08 71.7"

04-05 wasn't included on his list but that was 63.7"

There was a huge difference between Detroit and Howell for 00-01.

December 2000 was one of the best winter months I ever saw. Dec 11th-12th we got hammered and it just kept coming after that. I believe Detroit had rain and mixed precip.

[Frog Town]

I remember this December well.  From Thanksgiving on that year it was epic.  Arctic Air spilled in early and created quite the lake affect event with a few synoptic events leading up to Christmas.  In Toledo, we had a 13" snow pack on Christmas day.  I don't remember anything after the new year, so maybe it was short lived.  

[Hoosier]

10 minutes ago, Frog Town said:

I remember this December well.  From Thanksgiving on that year it was epic.  Arctic Air spilled in early and created quite the lake affect event with a few synoptic events leading up to Christmas.  In Toledo, we had a 13" snow pack on Christmas day.  I don't remember anything after the new year, so maybe it was short lived.  

Yeah, it changed big time after December.  

[RogueWaves]

7 hours ago, Jonger said:

There was a huge difference between Detroit and Howell for 00-01.

December 2000 was one of the best winter months I ever saw. Dec 11th-12th we got hammered and it just kept coming after that. I believe Detroit had rain and mixed precip.

Back this way it was good too, with BC recording nearly an entire season's worth of snow (55"). Too bad it blew it's load and Jan & Feb were duds. March had like one decent snow iirc

[michsnowfreak]

Regarding the 2000-01 talk. Dec 2000 was a very wintry month at Detroit. The 25.1" at DTW was one of the lowest, if not the lowest, in all of SE MI. I got 29.9" imby. It was at the time my snowiest month on record (Jan 2005s 31.2", Feb 2011s 31.8", & Jan 2014s 39.5" are the only months that have outsnowed Dec 2000 in my years of record...this winter will be my 23rd measuring snow). Still, Detroits 25.1" is good for 3rd snowiest Dec & 3rd coldest Dec on record. The main difference was the Dec 11/12 storm, which only brought 6-7" of snow to Detroit south as tons of ice was scene. It was gorgeous scenery but Id be lying if I didnt admit I was jealous of how close foot+ totals were. The snowpack didnt melt until almost mid-Feb but the rest of winter was absolute boredom to the fullest. Only 12.6" total snow fell at DTW from Jan thru Apr.

Breakdown of those winters here:

 

1962-63: 29.7", but 81 days of 1"+ snowcover. Tundra winter. The definition of cold & dry.

1967-68: 30.6", but 1+ snowcover days near avg at 48. Horrid winter just to our west.

1974-75: 63.1" with 65 days snowcover, but THE story was naturally the 19.3-inch Dec 1st snowstorm

1989-90: 41.8" with 47 days snowcover, so on paper not far from average, but this was a frontloaded winter with a frigid Dec & torch Jan

1996-97: 43.1" with 38 days snowcover. January was by far the highlight of the winter.

2000-01: 39.0" with 67 days snowcover. This winter was all about, and i mean ALL ABOUT December

2007-08: 71.7" with 63 days snowcover. This winter is about as active a winter as you can get. Thats 70-80" over the heart of metro-Detroit, which is not even accounting for several rain/ice storms & the Detroit screwjob storm of Jan 1st.

[blizzardof96]

Serious shades of 07-08 when Euro Monthly precip anoms were posted on twitter today. With the Nina possibly reaching moderate strength, this could be a very interesting winter, as long as sfc temps are cold enough. GL's also running well above normal which bodes well for the LES belts.

This strong of a Nina signal for winter hasn't happened since 10-11.

 

[BuffaloWeather]

1 minute ago, blizzardof96 said:

Serious shades of 07-08 when Euro Monthly precip anoms were posted on twitter today. With the Nina possibly reaching moderate strength, this could be a very interesting winter, as long as sfc temps are cold enough. GL's also running well above normal which bodes well for the LES belts.

 

Temp forecast:

 

[snowlover2]

1 hour ago, blizzardof96 said:

Serious shades of 07-08 when Euro Monthly precip anoms were posted on twitter today. With the Nina possibly reaching moderate strength, this could be a very interesting winter, as long as sfc temps are cold enough. GL's also running well above normal which bodes well for the LES belts.

This strong of a Nina signal for winter hasn't happened since 10-11.

 

Got not problem having 07-08 all over again.

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, snowlover2 said:

Got not problem having 07-08 all over again.

Me either. Love those euro maps.

[Hoosier]

23 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Me either. Love those euro maps.

As far as actual weather, this Fall is acting more like 2007 than 2008, even though the Nina seems unlikely to end up as intense. Rolling forward to winter, I sort of get the feeling we might get some of those similar thaws that you just love so much.  

[michsnowfreak]

8 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

As far as actual weather, this Fall is acting more like 2007 than 2008, even though the Nina seems unlikely to end up as intense. Rolling forward to winter, I sort of get the feeling we might get some of those similar thaws that you just love so much.  

thatOh I do too. But that is the price we pay for an active winter. Give me a cold dry winter with sustained snowcover and minimal thawing and im fine, but most here are not. No matter what I say now, when the thaws happen I'll be very irritated, but again look at 2007-08. A LOT of storminess. And yes this Fall is acting closer to 2007, but thats what was being referred to. fall 2008 would mean we were looking for another 2008-09. Loved that winter too. 

[Chinook]

The CFS 500mb maps and 850mb maps showing stronger -PNA pattern for December, with warmth in the Southeast, Northeast. The CANSIPS is somewhat different and does not have a trough in Western Canada at all. Th -PNA is the sort of thing you expect for *part of* a La Nina winter. For January, the CFS changes to more blocking, lower temps for the Great Lakes -- near normal for Detroit, Chicago, less overall warmth in the U.S.

[Chambana]

A 2007-2008 winter would be more than fine with me. For the love of god, can we please just have a wintry December? That’s all I want. 

[Hoosier]

1 hour ago, Chambana said:

A 2007-2008 winter would be more than fine with me. For the love of god, can we please just have a wintry December? That’s all I want. 

I would gladly throw away January-March for a wintry December...I generally tire of winter once February arrives anyway.  The entire month of December being wintry though (or at least the final few weeks). Not the dreaded Christmas time thaw.  

[michsnowfreak]

24 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I would gladly throw away January-March for a wintry December...I generally tire of winter once February arrives anyway.  The entire month of December being wintry though (or at least the final few weeks). Not the dreaded Christmas time thaw.  

Lol. Then you must want a 2016-17 redux. We had a very wintry December and a meh rest of winter.

[Chinook]

People from Great Lakes/Ohio Valley might like the IRI forecast-- has a cool, close to normal precip for DJF. Seems like IRI does some good modeling, but I don't know how well their climate forecasts have verified in the past.

http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/seasonal-climate-forecasts/

[Hoosier]

36 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Lol. Then you must want a 2016-17 redux. We had a very wintry December and a meh rest of winter.

As I recall, I was down to patches of snow on Christmas.  So would've liked it to last longer.

[Chinook]

Nah, 1976-77 redux for the win. The cold was relentless in Dec '76 to Jan '77. The 60-day 500mb anomaly maps look like the North Pole polar vortex took a trip to Lake Superior and stayed there.

[michsnowfreak]

8 hours ago, Hoosier said:

As I recall, I was down to patches of snow on Christmas.  So would've liked it to last longer.

We had a solid snowpack on Christmas. We had a solid snowpack the morning of the 26th. By the evening of 26th it was just piles. 

[Hoosier]

In general, it has not been a great sign for the upcoming winter when November comes in warmer than average in Nina years, PARTICULARLY when it's more than a degree or two above average.  Especially in the past 20 years.  I haven't gone back farther but that would be enough for me to have concerns about the upcoming winter should November come in significantly warmer than average. 

[michsnowfreak]

9 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

In general, it has not been a great sign for the upcoming winter when November comes in warmer than average in Nina years, PARTICULARLY when it's more than a degree or two above average.  Especially in the past 20 years.  I haven't gone back farther but that would be enough for me to have concerns about the upcoming winter should November come in significantly warmer than average. 

I will have to do some research into this as I'm not too niña savvy. Overall it's been shown there is no correlation to November and the winter, but typically a mild nino winter starts with a cold November. 

[Hoosier]

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Hoosier]

Out of the years I posted, 1998 might be the most notable exception to the warm rule, though it took until the January storm to really get going and then there was a big meltdown later that month. Had that storm not happened, I think that winter would be looked upon less fondly.

[RogueWaves]

2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

In general, it has not been a great sign for the upcoming winter when November comes in warmer than average in Nina years, PARTICULARLY when it's more than a degree or two above average.  Especially in the past 20 years.  I haven't gone back farther but that would be enough for me to have concerns about the upcoming winter should November come in significantly warmer than average. 

Quote

In summary:

• Sea surface temperatures in eastern tropical Pacific have recently cooled, approaching La Niña levels, while atmospheric patterns have largely remained ENSO-neutral;
• Models surveyed and expert opinion suggest that weak La Niña conditions may develop, with about 50-55% probability, in the final quarter of 2017;
• If La Niña conditions do develop before the end of 2017, they are likely to be weak, and would likely return to ENSO-neural in the first quarter of 2018;
• Continuation of ENSO-neutral conditions is also a plausible scenario, with 45-50% likelihood;
• Emergence of El Niño can be practically ruled out.

Not certain we can trot to the bank to deposit our bonafide Nina results quite yet. Might play out a little different than analog yrs.