Winter of 2017-18 discussion, thoughts

[michsnowfreak]

New England has had their winter '17-18 thread up since Feb 4th (no, that is not a typo), so as we enter the last 2 weeks of September, I figure it's time to start one. As Hoosier mentioned in the banter thread, as usual, reasons to be optimistic and pessimistic at this juncture, which is pretty common at this point. I am liking the wet look showing up on most model precip forecasts for the Lakes.

[Stebo]

9 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

New England has had their winter '17-18 thread up since Feb 4th (no, that is not a typo), so as we enter the last 2 weeks of September, I figure it's time to start one. As Hoosier mentioned in the banter thread, as usual, reasons to be optimistic and pessimistic at this juncture, which is pretty common at this point. I am liking the wet look showing up on most model precip forecasts for the Lakes.

Just letting us know they are crazy.

As for this winter, the way things are setting up with the moderate La Nina, things look to be active. Just matters if we are on the right side of the low track, though usually moderate Ninas tend to have a favorable storm track for St Louis, Chicago and Detroit. The eastern part of the forum tend to get it stuck to them a bit.

[slow poke]

I was reading some stats on the past 12 winters in southeast MI and if I read it right, Detroit and Flint have had 6 snow storms of 10"+ in that time frame, Saginaw has had 5 but what I find pretty crazy is White Lake, they have had 12! I know their in the hart of South East Michigan's "snow belt" but that just seems crazy high compared to areas 30 miles south and north of them. Elevation helps some but what other factors are causing this do you guys think?   

[Chinook]

The snow guns from Alpine Valley Ski Area are pointing directly at NWS White Lake office, which is also near highway M-59. That's how they get the snow.

[cyclone77]

Last season had very little clipper action IIRC.  Would be nice to have a season with more of those.  

[Hoosier]

44 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

New England has had their winter '17-18 thread up since Feb 4th (no, that is not a typo), so as we enter the last 2 weeks of September, I figure it's time to start one. As Hoosier mentioned in the banter thread, as usual, reasons to be optimistic and pessimistic at this juncture, which is pretty common at this point. I am liking the wet look showing up on most model precip forecasts for the Lakes.

Yeah, the main thing at this time (since it's really too early to get a better sense of the pattern going into winter) is that this looks likely to be a 2nd year Nina following a Nino.  Just be aware of a couple examples that didn't turn out very well, like 1999-2000 and 2011-2012. Both of those had a stronger first year Nina than what happened last year.  

But then you have something like 2008-09, which was essentially a 2nd year Nina (borderline).

 

[snowlover2]

32 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Just letting us know they are crazy.

As for this winter, the way things are setting up with the moderate La Nina, things look to be active. Just matters if we are on the right side of the low track, though usually moderate Ninas tend to have a favorable storm track for St Louis, Chicago and Detroit. The eastern part of the forum tend to get it stuck to them a bit.

Only for the last 10 years and obviously not all Ninas. The March 2008 blizzard was the last big snowstorm(10"+) from a southern based storm. Since then its been either the track you mentioned or too far south and east. Had to rely on overachieving clippers to get a decent(5-6") event. I think I speak for most of the Ohio posters when I say that one good west Apps runner is all we ask for this winter.

[IWXwx]

Can someone explain the meteorology of 2nd year Ninas and why it is different than a single year one?

[RogueWaves]

58 minutes ago, Chinook said:

The snow guns from Alpine Valley Ski Area are pointing directly at NWS White Lake office, which is also near highway M-59. That's how they get the snow.

Yep - at least an inch or 2 "bump" in their totals -

[Hoosier]

16 minutes ago, IWXwx said:

Can someone explain the meteorology of 2nd year Ninas and why it is different than a single year one?

I think the main thing is that it is another year removed from the El Nino... with Nina forcing.  Hence, less likely to be seeing Nino carryover effects, and one can feel even more confident in certain tendencies... i.e. warmer/drier than average in the deep South/Gulf coast.  

[Chambana]

The last moderate Niña (2010-2011) was fantastic around these parts, even with the heartbreaker GHD, whiffing us to the north. 2010-2011 moderate Niña occurred immediately after a moderate El Niño, so obviously a different enso pattern this go round, second year Niña being the wildcard. 

 

 

[Chambana]

Going back to 1950, the only moderate La Niña I see that followed a Weak La Niña were the years 1954-1955, 1955-1956 respectively. The moderate La Niña of 55/56 graphed below...

[michsnowfreak]

On 9/18/2017 at 0:33 PM, slow poke said:

I was reading some stats on the past 12 winters in southeast MI and if I read it right, Detroit and Flint have had 6 snow storms of 10"+ in that time frame, Saginaw has had 5 but what I find pretty crazy is White Lake, they have had 12! I know their in the hart of South East Michigan's "snow belt" but that just seems crazy high compared to areas 30 miles south and north of them. Elevation helps some but what other factors are causing this do you guys think?   

I will have to look at the storms, but as has been said over and over....the past decade of winters has been unusually snowy and stormy. The number of 6+ storms has been unprecedented in that timeframe. Elevation definitely helps white lake in marginal events, but other than that it should be a matter of track. 

[michsnowfreak]

On 9/18/2017 at 4:25 PM, Angrysummons said:

I like a weak Nina similar to 67-68 and a up and down winter.

That was a record low snow season for the western and northern sub.

[Jonger]

On 9/18/2017 at 4:25 PM, Angrysummons said:

I like a weak Nina similar to 67-68 and a up and down winter.

I'll pass on that.

[andyhb]

On 9/18/2017 at 0:27 PM, Chambana said:

Going back to 1950, the only moderate La Niña I see that followed a Weak La Niña were the years 1954-1955, 1955-1956 respectively. The moderate La Niña of 55/56 graphed below...

1974-75 and 1975-76 also generally fit this criteria (although 75-76 was a bit stronger).

[RogueWaves]

20 hours ago, andyhb said:

1974-75 and 1975-76 also generally fit this criteria (although 75-76 was a bit stronger).

Nice winter for a lot of SMI

[buckeye]

On 9/18/2017 at 1:11 PM, snowlover2 said:

Only for the last 10 years and obviously not all Ninas. The March 2008 blizzard was the last big snowstorm(10"+) from a southern based storm. Since then its been either the track you mentioned or too far south and east. Had to rely on overachieving clippers to get a decent(5-6") event. I think I speak for most of the Ohio posters when I say that one good west Apps runner is all we ask for this winter.

My mood about the upcoming winter weather is apathy.  Coming off a single digit snow season last year has taken it's toll on my mood about snow.   You would think it would make me hungrier, but it hasn't.  I have 3 trips planned throughout the winter to places far away and  tropical....   that's what I'll be looking forward to.

I see a nina trying to get itself together.   That means more wins for the areas more west and north of us and more slop and rain for us.   I fully expect another underachieving winter ...probably better than last year, (how could it be worse), but still something in the low to mid teens in snow totals I bet.   The only thing I'd be willing to put chips on is another blockbuster for Detroit....they seem to have locked in the goods for several years now.   

 

[pondo1000]

2 hours ago, buckeye said:

My mood about the upcoming winter weather is apathy.  Coming off a single digit snow season last year has taken it's toll on my mood about snow.   You would think it would make me hungrier, but it hasn't.  I have 3 trips planned throughout the winter to places far away and  tropical....   that's what I'll be looking forward to.

I see a nina trying to get itself together.   That means more wins for the areas more west and north of us and more slop and rain for us.   I fully expect another underachieving winter ...probably better than last year, (how could it be worse), but still something in the low to mid teens in snow totals I bet.   The only thing I'd be willing to put chips on is another blockbuster for Detroit....they seem to have locked in the goods for several years now.   

 

You are going away 3 times during the winter? Lock it in now, we are going to get slammed! 

[buckeye]

9 hours ago, pondo1000 said:

You are going away 3 times during the winter? Lock it in now, we are going to get slammed! 

lol...   probably right.      Right before xmas, late Jan. and mid Feb.      Mark your weenie calendar!

[pondo1000]

1 hour ago, buckeye said:

lol...   probably right.      Right before xmas, late Jan. and mid Feb.      Mark your weenie calendar!

If nothing else, it will be fun to track! LOL

[BuffaloWeather]

I'll go ahead and say warmer than average, below normal in snowfall. Similar to last year with more extremes.

 

 

[RogueWaves]

On 9/23/2017 at 7:08 PM, Angrysummons said:

Take away the December 1st storm and that year wasn't very good. The thaws beat the cold to often and the pattern did not produce much snow after December in general. The early spring on top of it sucked with a major arctic outbreak, which.......sucks.

But if it is the best we can do, it is the best we can do. After last winters disaster(following the bad big el nino slop), I will take it.

I was a kid growing up down-wind of KFNT, and my memory isn't stat-worthy on it's own, but I do know that it was KFNT's all-time snowiest with I believe 86" total - beaten only by 2013-14. On Dec 1st, we didn't get the 20" that Detroit did, but we did get 18" on April 2-3 the next spring. Which is still one of the hardest hitting snowstorms of historic record in that region. I'd take anything close to that after these past 2 seasons.  

[Jonger]

The CFS is showing

Warm December
Average January
COLD February
COLD March
COLD April

Warm spring lovers are going to hate that scenario if true. 

Of course it will probably change 200 times before winter

[RogueWaves]

18 minutes ago, Jonger said:

The CFS is showing

Warm December
Average January
COLD February
COLD March
COLD April

Warm spring lovers are going to hate that scenario if true. 

Of course it will probably change 200 times before winter

Yep. So much for the front-loaded winter ideas. In '98 at my place in S Bend I had 1 summer garden flower still blooming on Dec 19th!  The way things are right now, my money's on that scenario vs a Dec 2000 scenario. And, we had near warmest April on record this spring, so a cold one wouldn't surprise me for next year.

[michsnowfreak]

This link was posted on Harry's board. One thing I'm liking overall is the wet look in the lakes I have seen on most outlooks. 

 

[OHweather]

I'm not yet sure if I will be able to post my winter forecast this year, but I will post what my analog years are at the moment.  Because there's a pretty big difference between +QBO and -QBO La Ninas (-QBO tends to have a flatter north Pacific ridge but also a better shot at a -AO), and also between west-based La Ninas and east-based (east-based tend to be colder farther east), I focused on east-based La Ninas that had a -QBO.  A couple of winters that fell just short of an official La Nina along with a couple of moderate La Ninas are in there.  Despite some recent warming of the surface waters due to weaker trades over the last few weeks, with such a large and intense sub-surface cold pool in the eastern Pacific I have to think that we still end up at a solid weak La Nina this winter, and could still get close to moderate depending on how things go.  I also looked at the previous winter ENSO, PDO, and Indian Ocean SSTs, though similar ENSO location and QBO state were what I gave most importance to.  Here's what the composites come out to:

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, OHweather said:

I'm not yet sure if I will be able to post my winter forecast this year, but I will post what my analog years are at the moment.  Because there's a pretty big difference between +QBO and -QBO La Ninas (-QBO tends to have a flatter north Pacific ridge but also a better shot at a -AO), and also between west-based La Ninas and east-based (east-based tend to be colder farther east), I focused on east-based La Ninas that had a -QBO.  A couple of winters that fell just short of an official La Nina along with a couple of moderate La Ninas are in there.  Despite some recent warming of the surface waters due to weaker trades over the last few weeks, with such a large and intense sub-surface cold pool in the eastern Pacific I have to think that we still end up at a solid weak La Nina this winter, and could still get close to moderate depending on how things go.  I also looked at the previous winter ENSO, PDO, and Indian Ocean SSTs, though similar ENSO location and QBO state were what I gave most importance to.  Here's what the composites come out to:

Did you do 1967-68 and 1996-97 twice due to those being your strongest analogues?

[Stebo]

Weird with the precip plots of those analogs you'd think this area would have done well for snow but only two of those winters were above normal for snowfall and the others were meh.

[Hoosier]

67-68 and 96-97 had big screw zones, but in different places lol