AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted November 2, 2017 Author Share Posted November 2, 2017 1 hour ago, Angrysummons said: It isn't more east based, it is becoming more centrally based. 95-96 is a horrible analog. 96-97 would be a better analog. I'm referring mostly to NAO and flow at the northern latitudes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 3, 2017 Share Posted November 3, 2017 20 hours ago, Angrysummons said: It isn't more east based, it is becoming more centrally based. 95-96 is a horrible analog. 96-97 would be a better analog. Still looks east-based to me, and is going to remain weak and east-based....the thing is going to be gone by January or February.. When are you going to call it, June? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted November 4, 2017 Share Posted November 4, 2017 9 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Still looks east-based to me, and is going to remain weak and east-based....the thing is going to be gone by January or February.. When are you going to call it, June? Agree..... east-based and weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted November 4, 2017 Share Posted November 4, 2017 On 11/2/2017 at 4:17 PM, Angrysummons said: It isn't more east based, it is becoming more centrally based. 95-96 is a horrible analog. 96-97 would be a better analog. I'm not sure why you say that. It clearly has an east-based look currently. CFS forecasts it to remain that way in DEC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted November 11, 2017 Author Share Posted November 11, 2017 Legitimate -NAO November - Dec/Feb correlation is something like 65% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted November 28, 2017 Author Share Posted November 28, 2017 Classic -NAO now Super -NAO upcoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 7, 2017 Author Share Posted December 7, 2017 Really nice and anomalous -NAO happening now! (Conditions around the rest of the Northern Hemisphere do not favor this - and the NAO is quite negative!) This is, once again, a big indicator for the upcoming 3 months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 1 hour ago, StormchaserChuck said: Really nice and anomalous -NAO happening now! (Conditions around the rest of the Northern Hemisphere do not favor this - and the NAO is quite negative!) This is, once again, a big indicator for the upcoming 3 months. Not seeing it. The NAO dipped to -1 SD a couple days ago, but will be oscillating up to +1 SD for the next week or so. By December 15th, the Dec 1-15th NAO mean is likely to be near neutral, or possibly even ever so slightly positive. So far, it's not a propitious indication of an ensuing moderate to strongly negative NAO winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 7, 2017 Author Share Posted December 7, 2017 It's good to clarify. I'm loosely referring to NAO as 500mb anomaly over Greenland and Iceland. Officially, it's SLP difference, Azores/Iceland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted April 9, 2018 Author Share Posted April 9, 2018 Neutral NAO, but really I might call this slightly negative Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted April 15, 2018 Share Posted April 15, 2018 Moderately to strongly positive NAO winter, for meteorological winter DJF. My forecast of a +NAO winter verified. Another successful year for the indicators. 2017 0.88 2018 1.44 1.58 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted April 16, 2018 Author Share Posted April 16, 2018 Yup, good call. I stated in the initial post 500mb was measurement for this, because that is the SST correlation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 7, 2018 Author Share Posted December 7, 2018 Slightly positive signal this Winter, if you weigh (0.65x top box, 1.00x lower box/2), it's about +0.70 for DJFM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 20 hours ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: Slightly positive signal this Winter, if you weigh (0.65x top box, 1.00x lower box/2), it's about +0.70 for DJFM This seems like a suspect methodology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 8, 2018 Author Share Posted December 8, 2018 2 hours ago, WidreMann said: This seems like a suspect methodology. It may have to do with melting sea ice and Gulf stream position. Something I was reading said underwater currents. It's much more accurate in year-by-year test. It's Atlantic tripole, but the correlation is much greater than Summer NAO = Winter NAO (that comes out to like -0.25SD vs SST difference) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 1 hour ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: It may have to do with melting sea ice and Gulf stream position. Something I was reading said underwater currents. It's much more accurate in year-by-year test. It's Atlantic tripole, but the correlation is much greater than Summer NAO = Winter NAO (that comes out to like -0.25SD vs SST difference) I mean I believe that the tripole matters, but I don't feel like it's reasonable to just subtract SST averages and use that to calculate the average NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 8, 2018 Author Share Posted December 8, 2018 It's 9-1-3 since inception. The SD correlation of the dataset was 3-4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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