Negative NAO Winter

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

2005 on a site called easternuswx, elaborate research was done with North Atlantic SSTs, showing high lagging predictive value for following Winter's NAO/AO. The correlation factor was higher than 0.4, and there was advantage over decadal cycles. Meaning, it would predict years that reversed the decadal trend. The index was very accurate in predicting the +NAO for the 2005-2006 Winter, and got much attention after a topic called "This will be the warmest Winter on record for the US" (It was 7).  Since then the index has performed wonderfully after the fact:

2016-17: Strong - NAO signal/ Weak -NAO Winter  .. Yes

2015-16: +NAO signal/ +NAO Winter ... Yes

2014-15: Strong - NAO signal / +NAO Winter ... No

2013-14: Strong +NAO signal / +NAO Winter ... Yes
2012-13: slight -NAO signal / strong -NAO Winter ... Yes
2011-2012 neutral NAO signal / +NAO Winter ... even 
2010-2011: Strong -NAO signal/ Strong -NAO Winter ... Strong Yes

2009-2010: Strong -NAO signal / Strong - NAO Winter ... Yes

2008-2009: weak -NAO signal / weak -NAO Winter ... Yes

2007-2008: -NAO signal / +NAO Winter ... No

2006-2007: +NAO signal / weak +NAO Winter ... Yes

2005-2006: strong +NAO signal / +NAO Winter ... Yes

9-1-2

This index as a value forecasting tool is proven high, although the scientific fundamentals are a bit weaker in my opinion. 

Since so many people have asked me about this in the last few years, I thought it a good idea to make a post. The index is a measurement of May 1 - Sept 30 SSTs in the North Atlantic. It's correlated to following November-March NAO/AO (+6 month lag). 

The index is a composite of 2 areas in the North Atlantic (blue box - red box). When blue box is cold SSTs, negative NAO Winter. When red box is warm SSTs, negative NAO Winter. For compare, and red box is 65% value of blue box anomaly (so -1 blue +0.65 red is same thing). Visa versa. 
The index this year is strong -NAO. Top 10-15 negative index of all predictive years going back to 1948 (69). 

 

[griteater]

Thanks for the info and good luck with your prediction. You killed it in the other thread with your La Niña prediction in the face of warm ENSO modeling. Nice work.

[griteater]

Chuck - one thing, it looks like your numbers are off for last winter as it was +NAO

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

1 hour ago, griteater said:

Chuck - one thing, it looks like your numbers are off for last winter as it was +NAO

Around Neutral. I'm using 500mb maps. sometimes Iceland region is considered because that's the northern dipole in SLP. +AO
 

[raindancewx]

NAO was +0.5 in 2016-17 for Nov-Mar according to this - http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table

AO was very negative in Nov 2016 from what I remember, so thought maybe he meant that? But it ended up positive in Nov 2016 - Mar 2017 too. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/monthly.ao.index.b50.current.ascii.table

	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Nov-Mar
1950	0.92	0.40	-0.36	0.73	-0.59	-0.06	-1.26	-0.05	0.25	0.85	-1.26	-1.02	-0.504
1951	0.08	0.70	-1.02	-0.22	-0.59	-1.64	1.37	-0.22	-1.36	1.87	-0.39	1.32	-0.092
1952	0.93	-0.83	-1.49	1.01	-1.12	-0.40	-0.09	-0.28	-0.54	-0.73	-1.13	-0.43	-0.352
1953	0.33	-0.49	-0.04	-1.67	-0.66	1.09	0.40	-0.71	-0.35	1.32	1.04	-0.47	0.17
1954	0.37	0.74	-0.83	1.34	-0.09	-0.25	-0.60	-1.90	-0.44	0.60	0.40	0.69	-0.48
1955	-1.84	-1.12	-0.53	-0.42	-0.34	-1.10	1.76	1.07	0.32	-1.47	-1.29	0.17	-0.502
1956	-0.22	-1.12	-0.05	-1.06	2.21	0.10	-0.75	-1.37	0.24	0.88	0.51	0.10	0.102
1957	1.05	0.11	-1.26	0.49	-0.79	-0.72	-1.19	-0.55	-1.66	1.32	0.73	0.12	-0.542
1958	-0.54	-1.06	-1.96	0.37	-0.24	-1.38	-1.73	-1.56	-0.07	0.16	1.64	-0.70	0.12
1959	-0.87	0.68	-0.15	0.36	0.39	0.40	0.74	0.06	0.88	0.89	0.41	0.44	-0.566
1960	-1.29	-1.89	-0.50	1.36	0.45	-0.21	0.35	-1.40	0.39	-1.73	-0.51	0.06	0.192
1961	0.41	0.45	0.55	-1.55	-0.36	0.86	-0.39	0.90	1.24	0.51	-0.62	-1.48	-0.682
1962	0.61	0.55	-2.47	0.99	-0.10	0.16	-2.47	0.14	-0.37	0.41	-0.23	-1.32	-1.012
1963	-2.12	-0.96	-0.43	-1.35	2.16	-0.43	-0.77	-0.64	1.79	0.94	-1.27	-1.92	-1.354
1964	-0.95	-1.43	-1.20	0.36	0.52	1.29	1.90	-1.77	0.20	0.74	-0.01	-0.15	-0.668
1965	-0.12	-1.55	-1.51	0.72	-0.62	0.29	0.32	0.45	0.37	0.38	-1.66	1.37	-0.572
1966	-1.74	-1.39	0.56	-0.75	0.22	1.05	0.32	-1.76	-0.45	-0.68	-0.04	0.72	0.298
1967	-0.89	0.19	1.51	0.18	-0.99	1.40	0.41	1.44	0.93	0.07	0.60	-0.45	-0.122
1968	0.13	-1.29	0.40	-1.08	-1.76	0.33	-0.80	-0.66	-1.92	-2.30	-0.93	-1.40	-1.254
1969	-0.83	-1.55	-1.56	1.53	0.55	0.55	0.57	-1.45	2.07	0.66	-0.96	-0.28	-0.612
1970	-1.50	0.64	-0.96	-1.30	1.14	1.55	0.10	0.10	-0.09	-0.92	-0.60	-1.20	-0.706
1971	-1.13	0.24	-0.84	-0.24	0.50	-1.57	0.24	1.55	0.39	0.58	-0.20	0.60	0.342
1972	0.27	0.32	0.72	-0.22	0.95	0.88	0.18	1.32	-0.12	1.09	0.54	0.19	0.384
1973	0.04	0.85	0.30	-0.54	-0.44	0.39	0.57	-0.06	-0.30	-1.24	-0.93	0.32	0.112
1974	1.34	-0.14	-0.03	0.51	-0.24	-0.14	-0.76	-0.64	0.82	0.49	-0.54	1.50	0.062
1975	0.58	-0.62	-0.61	-1.60	-0.52	-0.84	1.55	-0.26	1.56	-0.54	0.41	0.00	0.368
1976	-0.25	0.93	0.75	0.26	0.96	0.80	-0.32	1.92	-1.29	-0.08	0.17	-1.60	-0.754
1977	-1.04	-0.49	-0.81	0.65	-0.86	-0.57	-0.45	-0.28	0.37	0.52	-0.07	-1.00	-0.382
1978	0.66	-2.20	0.70	-1.17	1.08	1.38	-1.14	0.64	0.46	1.93	3.04	-1.57	0.04
1979	-1.38	-0.67	0.78	-1.71	-1.03	1.60	0.83	0.96	1.01	-0.30	0.53	1.00	0.104
1980	-0.75	0.05	-0.31	1.29	-1.50	-0.37	-0.42	-2.24	0.66	-1.77	-0.37	0.78	0.102
1981	0.37	0.92	-1.19	0.36	0.20	-0.45	0.05	0.39	-1.45	-1.35	-0.38	-0.02	0.202
1982	-0.89	1.15	1.15	0.10	-0.53	-1.63	1.15	0.26	1.76	-0.74	1.60	1.78	1.078
1983	1.59	-0.53	0.95	-0.85	-0.07	0.99	1.19	1.61	-1.12	0.65	-0.98	0.29	0.264
1984	1.66	0.72	-0.37	-0.28	0.54	-0.42	-0.07	1.15	0.17	-0.07	-0.06	0.00	-0.392
1985	-1.61	-0.49	0.20	0.32	-0.49	-0.80	1.22	-0.48	-0.52	0.90	-0.67	0.22	0.274
1986	1.11	-1.00	1.71	-0.59	0.85	1.22	0.12	-1.09	-1.12	1.55	2.29	0.99	0.308
1987	-1.15	-0.73	0.14	2.00	0.98	-1.82	0.52	-0.83	-1.22	0.14	0.18	0.32	0.422
1988	1.02	0.76	-0.17	-1.17	0.63	0.88	-0.35	0.04	-0.99	-1.08	-0.34	0.61	1.058
1989	1.17	2.00	1.85	0.28	1.38	-0.27	0.97	0.01	2.05	-0.03	0.16	-1.15	0.584
1990	1.04	1.41	1.46	2.00	-1.53	-0.02	0.53	0.97	1.06	0.23	-0.24	0.22	0.336
1991	0.86	1.04	-0.20	0.29	0.08	-0.82	-0.49	1.23	0.48	-0.19	0.48	0.46	0.55
1992	-0.13	1.07	0.87	1.86	2.63	0.20	0.16	0.85	-0.44	-1.76	1.19	0.47	0.886
1993	1.60	0.50	0.67	0.97	-0.78	-0.59	-3.18	0.12	-0.57	-0.71	2.56	1.56	1.376
1994	1.04	0.46	1.26	1.14	-0.57	1.52	1.31	0.38	-1.32	-0.97	0.64	2.02	1.196
1995	0.93	1.14	1.25	-0.85	-1.49	0.13	-0.22	0.69	0.31	0.19	-1.38	-1.67	-0.696
1996	-0.12	-0.07	-0.24	-0.17	-1.06	0.56	0.67	1.02	-0.86	-0.33	-0.56	-1.41	0.14
1997	-0.49	1.70	1.46	-1.02	-0.28	-1.47	0.34	0.83	0.61	-1.70	-0.90	-0.96	-0.142
1998	0.39	-0.11	0.87	-0.68	-1.32	-2.72	-0.48	-0.02	-2.00	-0.29	-0.28	0.87	0.376
1999	0.77	0.29	0.23	-0.95	0.92	1.12	-0.90	0.39	0.36	0.20	0.65	1.61	1.066
2000	0.60	1.70	0.77	-0.03	1.58	-0.03	-1.03	-0.29	-0.21	0.92	-0.92	-0.58	-0.412
2001	0.25	0.45	-1.26	0.00	-0.02	-0.20	-0.25	-0.07	-0.65	-0.24	0.63	-0.83	0.406
2002	0.44	1.10	0.69	1.18	-0.22	0.38	0.62	0.38	-0.70	-2.28	-0.18	-0.94	-0.004
2003	0.16	0.62	0.32	-0.18	0.01	-0.07	0.13	-0.07	0.01	-1.26	0.86	0.64	0.418
2004	-0.29	-0.14	1.02	1.15	0.19	-0.89	1.13	-0.48	0.38	-1.10	0.73	1.21	0.314
2005	1.52	-0.06	-1.83	-0.30	-1.25	-0.05	-0.51	0.37	0.63	-0.98	-0.31	-0.44	-0.254
2006	1.27	-0.51	-1.28	1.24	-1.14	0.84	0.90	-1.73	-1.62	-2.24	0.44	1.34	0.594
2007	0.22	-0.47	1.44	0.17	0.66	-1.31	-0.58	-0.14	0.72	0.45	0.58	0.34	0.524
2008	0.89	0.73	0.08	-1.07	-1.73	-1.39	-1.27	-1.16	1.02	-0.04	-0.32	-0.28	0.004
2009	-0.01	0.06	0.57	-0.20	1.68	-1.21	-2.15	-0.19	1.51	-1.03	-0.02	-1.93	-1.184
2010	-1.11	-1.98	-0.88	-0.72	-1.49	-0.82	-0.42	-1.22	-0.79	-0.93	-1.62	-1.85	-0.608
2011	-0.88	0.70	0.61	2.48	-0.06	-1.28	-1.51	-1.35	0.54	0.39	1.36	2.52	1.348
2012	1.17	0.42	1.27	0.47	-0.91	-2.53	-1.32	-0.98	-0.59	-2.06	-0.58	0.17	-0.424
2013	0.35	-0.45	-1.61	0.69	0.57	0.52	0.67	0.97	0.24	-1.28	0.90	0.95	0.856
2014	0.29	1.34	0.80	0.31	-0.92	-0.97	0.18	-1.68	1.62	-1.27	0.68	1.86	1.42
2015	1.79	1.32	1.45	0.73	0.15	-0.07	-3.18	-0.76	-0.65	0.44	1.74	2.24	1.282
2016	0.12	1.58	0.73	0.38	-0.77	-0.43	-1.76	-1.65	0.61	0.41	-0.16	0.48	0.508
2017	0.48	1.00	0.74	1.73	-1.91	0.05	1.26	-1.10

Nov-Mar NAO

2005-06: Negative

2006-07: Positive

2007-08: Positive

2008-09: Neutral

2009-10: Negative

2010-11: Negative

2011-12: Positive

2012-13: Neutral / Negative

2013-14: Positive

2014-15: Positive

2015-16: Positive

2016-17: Positive

[billgwx]

Iceland (east) vs Greenland (west) based NAO? Quite different outcomes down thisaway.

[Paragon]

43 minutes ago, billgwx said:

Iceland (east) vs Greenland (west) based NAO? Quite different outcomes down thisaway.

I was wondering about something that no one has been able to give a clear answer to yet, I know we have - NAO that are either west or east based- do we similarly have + NAO that are east or west based and what are the differences? Is one better than the other for us?  If not, that means 3 out of 4 NAO phases are bad for us.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

On September 17, 2017 at 8:39 PM, StormchaserChuck said:

Around Neutral. I'm using 500mb maps. sometimes Iceland region is considered because that's the northern dipole in SLP. +AO
 

I am a big fan of your work and methodologies.......and I incorporated your NAO work into last season's out look, but I was somewhat surprised that it wasn't more negative.

Anyway, great work, as always....I think this tool as about as good as any, and probably the best imho.

[Daniel Boone]

On 9/17/2017 at 6:02 PM, StormchaserChuck said:

2005 on a site called easternuswx, elaborate research was done with North Atlantic SSTs, showing high lagging predictive value for following Winter's NAO/AO. The correlation factor was higher than 0.4, and there was advantage over decadal cycles. Meaning, it would predict years that reversed the decadal trend. The index was very accurate in predicting the +NAO for the 2005-2006 Winter, and got much attention after a topic called "This will be the warmest Winter on record for the US" (It was 7).  Since then the index has performed wonderfully after the fact:

2016-17: Strong - NAO signal/ Weak -NAO Winter  .. Yes

2015-16: +NAO signal/ +NAO Winter ... Yes

2014-15: Strong - NAO signal / +NAO Winter ... No

2013-14: Strong +NAO signal / +NAO Winter ... Yes
2012-13: slight -NAO signal / strong -NAO Winter ... Yes
2011-2012 neutral NAO signal / +NAO Winter ... even 
2010-2011: Strong -NAO signal/ Strong -NAO Winter ... Strong Yes

2009-2010: Strong -NAO signal / Strong - NAO Winter ... Yes

2008-2009: weak -NAO signal / weak -NAO Winter ... Yes

2007-2008: -NAO signal / +NAO Winter ... No

2006-2007: +NAO signal / weak +NAO Winter ... Yes

2005-2006: strong +NAO signal / +NAO Winter ... Yes

9-1-2

This index as a value forecasting tool is proven high, although the scientific fundamentals are a bit weaker in my opinion. 

Since so many people have asked me about this in the last few years, I thought it a good idea to make a post. The index is a measurement of May 1 - Sept 30 SSTs in the North Atlantic. It's correlated to following November-March NAO/AO (+6 month lag). 

The index is a composite of 2 areas in the North Atlantic (blue box - red box). When blue box is cold SSTs, negative NAO Winter. When red box is warm SSTs, negative NAO Winter. For compare, and red box is 65% value of blue box anomaly (so -1 blue +0.65 red is same thing). Visa versa. 
The index this year is strong -NAO. Top 10-15 negative index of all predictive years going back to 1948 (69). 

 

Jacks "cold pool "

[40/70 Benchmark]

Good ole "Jack O"...RIP

[40/70 Benchmark]

-QBO to hopefully provide some polar assist..

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

35 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

-QBO to hopefully provide some polar assist..

El Nino/-QBO 60% correlated to -NAO

La Nina/+QBO 60% correlated to +NAO

[40/70 Benchmark]

18 hours ago, StormchaserChuck said:

El Nino/-QBO 60% correlated to -NAO

La Nina/+QBO 60% correlated to +NAO

I think the correlation to the AO is stronger, but obviously this is an NAO thread...

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

You're right

[40/70 Benchmark]

On September 17, 2017 at 7:22 PM, griteater said:

Chuck - one thing, it looks like your numbers are off for last winter as it was +NAO

I had +.37, so neutral-positive.

I wouldn't consider that a win for this index, but he knows better than I.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

October's AO is 60-65% oppositely correlated to Dec-Feb NAO. Most, maybe all, other months in the year are similarly correlated (maybe one in the Spring was 49%).    November is strongest direct correlation. -October/+November is 70%. 
October is the forecasting stone and it's +AO on models, even where this graph in the long range shows mix.

[uncle W]

the qbo came in with a value of -15.28 making it stronger than August's -14.42...la nina and weak negative years that had a negative qbo in September were cold on average if the qbo remained negative throughout the winter...1962-63, 1967-68, 1981-82, 1983-84, 2000-01, 2014-15 are years when the qbo remained negative...when the September qbo was negative but rose to near neutral during the winter the analogs are...1954-55, 1970-71, 1984-85, 1996-97, 1998-99, 2012-13...

[mitchnick]

9 minutes ago, uncle W said:

the qbo came in with a value of -15.28 making it stronger than August's -14.42...la nina and weak negative years that had a negative qbo in September were cold on average if the qbo remained negative throughout the winter...1962-63, 1967-68, 1981-82, 1983-84, 2000-01, 2014-15 are years when the qbo remained negative...when the September qbo was negative but rose to near neutral during the winter the analogs are...1954-55, 1970-71, 1984-85, 1996-97, 1998-99, 2012-13...

Unc, your top map has different years than the years you stated.

[uncle W]

17 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Unc, your top map has different years than the years you stated.

the top map are la nina's only...if I added in the other years the map looks redder...

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

QBO-Winter temps correlation is actually weaker than random on 70 years of data. This also applies to with ENSO. 

re: post above, throw any 6 years together and you'll probably get concentrated anomalies. 

I get it lure as predictable. QBO has to do with Stratospheric warming, and -QBO generally means more -AO events, although this works better with El Nino.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Strong La Nina and El Nino historically dominate with a strong Polar vortex, overpowering the -QBO times past, although I don't think this to be true in El Nino in theory. Historically data -1.2 to +1.2 ENSO with -QBO is 60% chance of -AO Winter. 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Historically, the inverse OctoberAO-WinterNAO signal ends around October 25, and then there is increasing similarity, peaking around November 20. Pretty text book right here. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Yea, I have interpreted this tropical October regime as a positive development in relation to winter prospects....statistically speaking, trends from October to November tend to augur the prevailing winter pattern more often than not-

[40/70 Benchmark]

Chuck, question...if you get the time, could you run your formula for the '70-71' season in order to see how it verifies?

One reservation I have is that as well as your formula has performed, it missed on '07-'08, which is a fair analog for this season.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

The way the whole Northern Hemisphere is moving right now feels like a warm Winter to me. Probably Pacific driven. 

[nzucker]

On 10/18/2017 at 10:19 AM, StormchaserChuck said:

The way the whole Northern Hemisphere is moving right now feels like a warm Winter to me. Probably Pacific driven. 

I thought you were originally thinking a cold winter, driven by a -NAO and weak La Nina, as well as a -QBO induced blocking regime. Have you changed your thoughts?

I'm starting to believe this will be a pretty mild winter. Global temperatures are really high, the PDO is dropping towards negative, and the La Nina is strengthening to near -1.0C. It doesn't seem that there is very much cold air in the Northern Hemisphere, and what little there is seems to be concentrating towards Siberia and the Pacific Northwest. Becoming a little concerned at this early juncture.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

I never really expected it to be cool. NAO while negative will probably be mostly transitory, which means less snow. It would have been really nice to have a different Pacific right now, -EPO or GOA ridge all month, then with -QBO loading pattern, something cold and snowy is 5x more likely. As it is now, the tendency for Atlantic blocking will often be in battle with forces to shear it out. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 10/20/2017 at 9:06 PM, StormchaserChuck said:

I never really expected it to be cool. NAO while negative will probably be mostly transitory, which means less snow. It would have been really nice to have a different Pacific right now, -EPO or GOA ridge all month, then with -QBO loading pattern, something cold and snowy is 5x more likely. As it is now, the tendency for Atlantic blocking will often be in battle with forces to shear it out. 

Chuck, are you implying a positive EPO is more likely throughout winter becuase it has been predominate during October?

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Good signs happening now.

Models bring back -NAO beyond day 10 and the general momentum of pattern is supportive of "-NAO lock" for the Winter.

 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

On 10/20/2017 at 9:06 PM, StormchaserChuck said:

I never really expected it to be cool. NAO while negative will probably be mostly transitory, which means less snow. It would have been really nice to have a different Pacific right now, -EPO or GOA ridge all month, then with -QBO loading pattern, something cold and snowy is 5x more likely. As it is now, the tendency for Atlantic blocking will often be in battle with forces to shear it out. 

Another note is that the La Nina in Pacific is setting up more east-based, or subsurface based vs surface. Now with a +500dm+ block in the North Pacific in the next few days, it's starting to move in the direction of more favorable Winter pattern (cold), -NAO/-AO long term pattern Winter. 95-96 is a decent analog.