AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 How easy it is for storms to just ride into Cat 4 A jump that will have effects for a few years. Long range GFS ensembles growing warmer every new year. The highest +anomaly composite I've seen at day 14. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/08/29/harvey-marks-the-most-extreme-rain-event-in-u-s-history/?utm_term=.18549577c448 This storm was nothing. A few days before landfall, just a weak swirl. These are real climate events. I think this is a threshold crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted September 17, 2017 Author Share Posted September 17, 2017 Watch Maria easily coast into Category 4 in very little time. These things just don't happen. Sometime look over tropical season maps from the last 60 years and you'll see what I'm talking about. The placement and track of rapid intensification: Irma, Maria I think without suppression engineering, there would be some really cool things happening worldwide. These things are first signs, or maybe some breaks in the shield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 4 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck said: Watch Maria easily coast into Category 4 in very little time. These things just don't happen. Sometime look over tropical season maps from the last 60 years and you'll see what I'm talking about. The placement and track of rapid intensification: Irma, Maria I think without suppression engineering, there would be some really cool things happening worldwide. These things are first signs, or maybe some breaks in the shield. Elaborate please on the engineering of height fields and how hurricanes are manipulated. It seems sound to me but I have never recieved or figured out a concrete reasoning for it. I stopped seeing chemtrails in the sky about 1-2 years ago in my area and many people report the same. In additon, there are still regular contrails but the difference is immense. There is a possibility of some atmospheric change reducing persistent contrails? In such a case, is suppression engineering actually real? We are still in the early stages of AGW. The oceans require time to response but with the amount of forcing in-situ, this will be more or less complete by 2050. We will largely have a pliocene ocean-state by 2050. Barring nuclear wars and/or volcanoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted September 17, 2017 Author Share Posted September 17, 2017 No contrails for a year now. Look at the huge uptick in hurricane season, and other things happening like La Nina that was forecasted by no models, largest rain event, etc. Whatever, it's a secondary point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 no worries. Since I see we now have geo-engineering techniques that could either warm or cool the planet. Whatever is needed, they'll implement. first seeding experiments were done in the 40's guys. The 40's ! as you can see below. they want everybody to think it's all crazy talk...just like Roswell never happened Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 Ultimately geoengineering (Whatever form it is in now?) is a lost cause without SRM (and global dimming is gone as of 2017 except over the West Pac and decreasing) and emissions reductions. What we need is actually something along the lines of Snowpiercer. A latent particle that eats CO2 and/or latent heat. It's humorous to believe the powers that be think kicking the can down the road was the best option. It's actually not because it allows Co2 to keep building and for civilization to keep functioning when it otherwise would have been shut down early on by things like Sea Level Rise and agricultural failure. Another indictation that nobody is at the helm of the sinking ship. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 I thought all this chemtrail stuff was for nutty asses. until I took this pic... which was a day before a major winter storm hit this year. evidence turns people into believers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 and yes, much more snow than expected fell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 It's an interesting piece however jet exhaust is very hot and tends to condensate with the air especially in winter. I just haven't seen anything like that in the warm season. However, aviation has contributed to global dimming since the 1980s. This is well known but the idea of it being intentional seems far out there. Coal factories contributed to global dimming as well. The X pattern is interesting but planes use sophisticated GPS autopilot systems that are very linear. Various planes traveling in different directions but always in straight lines, sometimes changing altitude as a result of landing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted September 17, 2017 Author Share Posted September 17, 2017 So this is Andrew in a period of awesome intensification. My point is, what was a 1/10 year event is happen much more frequently now, maybe as much as 10x(if left alone) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 I think you raise a good point. We are definitely in unprecedented territory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 WTF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted September 18, 2017 Author Share Posted September 18, 2017 Cat 4 Maria. Only 1 storm in 70 years has intensified so rapidly within 100 mile radius of this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 4 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck said: Cat 4 Maria. Only 1 storm in 70 years has intensified so rapidly within 100 mile radius of this storm That doesn't sound all that odd, actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted September 18, 2017 Author Share Posted September 18, 2017 There were like 50 tropical storms and 5 hurricanes. My point is, with the slightest favorable conditions storms just ride into Cat 4/5 status now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 Right now, it's an anomaly, IMO. Might be the new norm...who knows? I do agree that it's a bit unusual to see so many strong storms that have intensified so rapidly, but is it the new normal? We'll have to wait and see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 We heard this type of argument in 2004 and 2005 after all those big hurricane strikes on the U.S. Then we didn't get hit by a major hurricane for over a decade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted September 18, 2017 Author Share Posted September 18, 2017 Just now, ORH_wxman said: We heard this type of argument in 2004 and 2005 after all those big hurricane strikes on the U.S. Then we didn't get hit by a major hurricane for over a decade. What do you think about Irma over the eastern Atlantic, 1st image. (I know you have a lot of experience with these maps) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 why are we using the same trash unisys maps that have been around since we discovered wxboards? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted September 18, 2017 Author Share Posted September 18, 2017 1 minute ago, cmasty1978 said: why are we using the same trash unisys maps that have been around since we discovered wxboards? maybe there is a gap east of 50W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 Didn't realize baconstrips was back with the chemtrail stuff...guess I've been in the sea ice thread too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 6 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck said: maybe there is a gap east of 50W yup...unisys is wrong 1933: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted September 18, 2017 Author Share Posted September 18, 2017 Can you find a storm that strengthened to Cat 4 from 1 in 500 miles, east of 40W, north of 15N? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 Just now, StormchaserChuck said: Can you find a storm that strengthened to Cat 4 from 1 in 500 miles east of 40W, north of 15N? FRED (2009) was close https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Fred_(2009) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 JULIA (2010) meets your criteria https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Julia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Didn't realize baconstrips was back with the chemtrail stuff...guess I've been in the sea ice thread too much. keep doing what you're good at: Deflecting and thinking everything's a conspiracy. bet he still doesn't think Seeding occurs either. We're all crazy to think so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 It is a complex story. The Euro run from 12z gives credance to the geo-engineering argument however there is also evidence for extreme blocking caused by AGW. In a sense, the same process that caused Sandy looks to shield the US at this time from Maria. In addition, an increased number of TCs does not always imply more US landfalls for specific locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted September 18, 2017 Author Share Posted September 18, 2017 30 minutes ago, cmasty1978 said: JULIA (2010) meets your criteria https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Julia Didn't reach Cat 4 though. Thanks for the posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 Just now, StormchaserChuck said: Didn't reach Cat 4 though. Thanks for the posts. it peaked at 140mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted September 18, 2017 Author Share Posted September 18, 2017 pretty cool. Maybe La Nina is just creating super favorable conditions right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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